What is happening!
I put out my initial Top 200 Starting Pitcher rankings back in the middle of February and another update just under two weeks ago and, to the surprise of few, we’re well due for another update.
The foundations of these rankings are the same as they were back then – Volume, early schedule, realizing you’re not drafting a best ball team, etc. – and please read that section of the Top 200 rankings again to grasp how to take advantage of this updated Top 100 to its fullest.
I’ve also published my Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide For 2021 that outlines a lot of my philosophy when creating this List. I highly recommend reading that for your drafts.
In addition, I updated my SP Schedules article tables, which showcase the first four matchups for every starter in the majors. It’s incredibly useful and helped craft my rankings here.
This is the final update before the start of the season as we begin the weekly tradition of The List updates on Mondays, from now through the end of the season.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!
And always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.
Ranking Notes
- I have removed all pitchers who will start the season on IL, meaning there is a sea of Green. Please read the notes as they’ll explain so much.
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- Hey, it’s the notes! Few changes inside the Top 40, with the major moves coming from the removals of Zac Gallen, Carlos Carrasco, and Sonny Gray. Removing them + Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, Luis Severino gave a massive bump to many.
- The biggest change was Stephen Strasburg falling into the fifth tier as I wasn’t encouraged by how he looked in his final tuneup today. He seemed off and I’d rather go with the other Top 25 guys that are looking ready to start the season (yes, including Zach Plesac’s homerun brigade).
- In Tier 6, I elected to keep Sixto Sanchez in the same spot despite the news that he’ll be skipped at least once to start the year. We didn’t expect a 180+ inning workload in the first place and it changes nothing. Nothing.
- I did give a sizeable boost to Julio Urias as the Dodgers are looking to give him a stronger workload as their #4 starter. That mixed in with the discussion with Eno and DVR on our Rates & Barrels appearance have swayed me to mid-30s.
- Staying in Tier 6, I’m a little more cautious with Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon, electing to push Pablo Lopez and Aaron Civale ahead of them. Barely, but Kluber isn’t quite as explosive as I wanted him to be by now, while the Yanks are already manipulating Taillon’s time. Very small, but I gave PabLo and Civale the push.
- I’ve also added Tyler Mahle to this tier as his early schedule is lovely, giving him the chance to continue stretching out while possibly avoiding early laborious innings. In other words, the chance he can go five innings without needing 80 pitches is much needed for a guy that hasn’t gone deep a whole lot in seasons prior.
- John Means took a small dip in Tier 7 as he’s not quite at the place I want him to be entering the season. Paired with a rough couple of matchups to launch his 2021 campaign, I’m a little more selective in adding Means.
- Meanwhile, I feel a touch safer drafting Jose Urquidy who may throw fewer innings, but is a bit more stable given his deep repertoire. Just don’t blow up against Oakland, okay Urquidy?
- Tier 8 explodes with green as we’re passed the oft-mentioned “injured value” tier. Nothing really changed here save for me recognizing that Ryan Yarbrough – a.k.a. The Fratty Pirate – has a solid schedule to start the season and the Rays will need him to engulf innings.
- I’ve also pushed Drew Smyly ahead of Mike Minor as his velocity is still up + he has a better opening schedule. Not a major deal, just a…small…one.
Read this next section. PLEASE.
- Okay, I really need to explain the final four tiers, to the point that I added that extravagant header. The final four tiers are sectioned as follows:
- Tier 9 = Super fun tier of guys that could leap up The List during the year based on their ability, but kinda sketch now.
- Tier 10 = Kinda fun, kinda boring arms that have solid early schedules and I’m looking to draft to help with a few quick starts
- Tier 11 = More fun arms I like in the long run, but have horrible early schedules. Think of this as “I may love them on May 1st but watch from afar for now”
- Tier 12 = I’m desperate for a starter the first week and these guys are facing weak opponents
- So in short, I’m drafting 4-5 guys inside the Top 45 pitchers, then targeting fliers later, while ignoring Tiers 11-12 for the most part. Tier 11 = if you want to stash and I’m not blind to their upside.
- H’ok, so Tier 9. David Price is going to be bouncing between starts and the pen and it bothers me immensely. If he gets a starting job, he’s Top 50 or higher, but that’s just not in the cards at the moment.
- Matthew Boyd is jumping up as I’ve liked what I’ve seen thus far. Changeup is still there, slider looks back, and 92+ mph heaters. I think I’d take the chance and start him against Cleveland now and hold out for the Pirates after.
- Yep, Freddy Peralta and Logan Webb are making massive entrances to The List. I didn’t believe it before, but Peralta’s slider is legit and now that he has a rotation spot, I’m paying attention. It may be a shaky first start, but I think he figures it out by the second or third. Webb has also impressed in the spring with a ridiculous changeup and gets a tasty schedule early. I want both of these guys everywhere.
- I’m also interested in Tarik Skubal since he was given the lovely gift of CLEx2 and PIT across his first four starts. Not to say he’ll nail it, but the upside is certainly worth it given the weak lineups (plus the whiff-heavy A’s!).
- If you haven’t seen it yet, I was stunned when I watched more of Adbert Alzolay today during The List livestream. While he may need some time to nail down the command, he’s too interesting to neglect now that he has a rotation spot. His mechanics seem a little cleaner as well.
- I’ve also given a large jump to Trevor Rogers, who is lucky to miss the Rays and get the Giants instead. I’m not quite as in vs. the other three newbies, but he’s worth the shot as a late-round flier.
- Tier 10 has some very helpful arms. Michael Pineda and J.A. Happ should not be overlooked as the Twins have a glorious DET, @MIL, @DET, SEA schedule to pop the 2021 champagne. Even Matt Shoemaker gets the Tigers, too, but he has to deal with the Red Sox and that gets him pushed to the final tier.
- Carlos Rodon has had an impressive spring thus far and it may continue with a favorable situation in Chicago. Taijuan Walker could do well for the Mets, and Brad Keller’s first start against the Rangers may be fruitful.
- Tier 11 is filled with your popular arms but man do their schedules give me hesitation. Consider them as pickups at the end of April. For example, Andrew Heaney’s is atrocious and gives me nightmares, with CWS, @TOR, MIN, @HOU. I don’t think I want to start him for any of it.
- It continues with the rest of the tier, including hot topic Daulton Jefferies who is certainly appealing, but gets the Dodgers and Astros to kick off his rotation spot. That isn’t what you want.
- In short, keep all of these names in mind after you get your early Happ or Pineda value as they could be showcasing skills that provide dividends once their gauntlet comes to an end.
- Finally, there’s Tier 12 – the last place to look if you’re dying for something in the first week. Jake Arrieta has two starts against the Pirates but sadly, I just don’t trust that he does enough to take full advantage. The same goes for Martín Pérez who has a fortunate double date with the Orioles. I’m having second thoughts after he floundered the same opportunity last season.
- And finally, don’t ignore Mike Foltynewicz and Chris Archer. While they may not be their former peaks, they could still be helpful given the right matchups. Hey, it could happen.
Pitcher | Reason |
---|---|
Zac Gallen | IL with hairline fracture. Top 15 SP |
Carlos Carrasco | IL with hamstring injury. Top 20 SP |
Sonny Gray | IL with back injury. Top 25 SP |
Dinelson Lamet | IL with elbow injury. Top 25 SP |
Mike Soroka | IL with torn achilles. Top 30 SP |
Chris Sale | IL from TJS. Top 10 SP |
Noah Syndergaard | IL from TJS. Top 15 SP |
Luis Severino | IL from TJS. Top 15 SP |
Framber Valdez | IL with finger injury. Top 50 SP |
Michael Lorenzen | IL with shoulder injury. Top 80 SP |
Eduardo Rodriguez | Il with dead arm. Top 80 SP |
Spencer Turnbull | COVID IL. Top 80 SP |
Robbie Ray | Out with hurt elbow. Interesting flier, still risky |
Jake Odorizzi | Likely missing two starts. Top 70 |
AJ Puk | Likely does not have a rotation spot. Would be Top 80 |
Madison Bumgarner | Tough schedule + not at 91 mph |
Tejay Antone | Injury means he’s currently out of the rotation |
Josh Lindblom | Does not have a rotation spot |
Alec Mills | Does not have a rotation spot |
Rich Hill | Tough first start + questionable ability |
Dylan Cease | I’m still worried about command |
Wade Miley | Good schedule, not sure he’s good enough |
Jose Quintana | Good schedule, not sure he’s good enough |
Randy Dobnak | Does not have a rotation spot |
Logan Allen | Likely piggybacking starts early |
Adrian Morejon | Good schedule, not sure he’s good enough |
All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:
Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Jacob deGromT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
2 | Shane Bieber | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
3 | Gerrit Cole | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
4 | Yu DarvishT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
5 | Lucas Giolito | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
6 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
7 | Walker Buehler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
8 | Max Scherzer | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
9 | Trevor Bauer | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb | - |
10 | Clayton Kershaw | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
11 | Kenta MaedaT3 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
12 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
13 | Jack Flaherty | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
14 | Brandon Woodruff | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
15 | Blake SnellT4 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +1 |
16 | Lance Lynn | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
17 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +1 |
18 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +4 |
19 | Hyun Jin Ryu | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +4 |
20 | Max Fried | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +4 |
21 | Kyle Hendricks | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +4 |
22 | Zach Plesac | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +4 |
23 | Corbin Burnes | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +4 |
24 | Stephen StrasburgT5 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -4 |
25 | Charlie Morton | Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts | +4 |
26 | Patrick Corbin | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +4 |
27 | Chris Paddack | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +5 |
28 | Zack Greinke | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +3 |
29 | José Berríos | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +4 |
30 | Sandy Alcantara | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +4 |
31 | Lance McCullers Jr. | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +4 |
32 | Sixto SánchezT6 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +4 |
33 | Jesús Luzardo | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +4 |
34 | Pablo López | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +6 |
35 | Julio Urías | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +9 |
36 | Aaron Civale | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +5 |
37 | Corey Kluber | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
38 | Jameson Taillon | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
39 | Ian Anderson | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | +3 |
40 | Frankie Montas | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +3 |
41 | Joe Musgrove | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +4 |
42 | Dylan Bundy | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +4 |
43 | Tyler Mahle | Strikeout Upside | +6 |
44 | José UrquidyT7 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +7 |
45 | John Means | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
46 | Kevin Gausman | Ace Potential Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +4 |
47 | Marcus Stroman | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +6 |
48 | Shohei Ohtani | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +4 |
49 | James Paxton | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +5 |
50 | Jordan Montgomery | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +5 |
51 | Triston McKenzie | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +5 |
52 | Domingo Germán | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +5 |
53 | Dallas KeuchelT8 | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +10 |
54 | Marco Gonzales | Quality Starts Toby | +10 |
55 | Zach Davies | Quality Starts Toby | +11 |
56 | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +14 | |
57 | Mike Minor | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +8 |
58 | Carlos Martínez | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +10 |
59 | Ryan Yarbrough | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +28 |
60 | Logan WebbT9 | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +UR |
61 | Freddy Peralta | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +UR |
62 | David Price | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | -4 |
63 | Zach Eflin | Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option | +9 |
64 | Matthew Boyd | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +18 |
65 | Mitch Keller | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +6 |
66 | Tarik Skubal | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
67 | Brady Singer | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +7 |
68 | Germán Márquez | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -9 |
69 | Tony Gonsolin | Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | +10 |
70 | Adbert Alzolay | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +UR |
71 | Trevor Rogers | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +23 |
72 | Michael PinedaT10 | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +19 |
73 | J.A. Happ | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +19 |
74 | Nathan Eovaldi | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +2 |
75 | Carlos Rodón | Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
76 | Garrett Richards | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +21 |
77 | Taijuan Walker | Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option | +UR |
78 | Brad Keller | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
79 | Andrew HeaneyT11 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -1 |
80 | Sean Manaea | Injury Risk Ratio Focused | +1 |
81 | Yusei Kikuchi | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby | +7 |
82 | Justin Dunn | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +UR |
83 | Caleb Smith | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +10 |
84 | Chris Bassitt | Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | -4 |
85 | Daulton Jefferies | Strikeout Upside | +UR |
86 | Elieser Hernández | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -2 |
87 | Dane Dunning | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | -1 |
88 | Griffin Canning | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +10 |
89 | Cristian Javier | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | - |
90 | Daniel Ponce de Leon | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
91 | Casey Mize | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
92 | Dustin May | Low Ips Ratio Focused | -2 |
93 | Jake ArrietaT12 | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
94 | Mike Foltynewicz | Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
95 | Matt Shoemaker | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
96 | Chris Archer | Injury Risk Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
97 | Adam Wainwright | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
98 | David Peterson | Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
99 | Joey Lucchesi | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
100 | Martín Pérez | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
Labels Legend
Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)
Wow no love for Bassitt? Seems like after he got over the “pain” of TJS he turned into SP2/SP3 upside type? Granted he doesn’t offer much w K%?
And surprised to also see split b/w Gonso/May. Guess we’ll find out today after LAD sim game but appears May is closer to getting 5th spot. If that’s indeed the case does Gonso belong further down the ladder?
Ultimately if Gonso relegated to pen would you drop him for any one of Domingo, Elieser, Singer or Peralta?
That schedule is so rough early for Bassitt, that’s the problem. I don’t feel like he gives enough to endure the early pains.
I feel that A) Gonsolin is plenty better for fantasy than May and B) Gonsolin has a better history of going longer into the games he does start. You may be right, though, Dodgeritis is the most annoying thing out there.
I’d drop for Domingo German.
Thoughts on Morejon? Is he someone that just missed tier 12?
I added Morejon to the Fringe tier for you. I don’t think he has enough in the arsenal to make him worth the dive early in the season.
Are Luzardo, Civale and Kluber really bonafide aces?
You’re right, I should remove their AGA labels.
Also, don’t let theKraken see you posting with that name.
Where would Sonny Gray slot in once he returns from the IL?
He’s be around #20 when he returns.
Sonny gray removed with no notes? Top 25 sp?
Sorry! I accidentally didn’t paste the Fringe Pitchers at first.
He’s there and yeah, he’s hovering #20 when he returns.
Do you like Odorizzi or Logan Webb better for this season?
Both are solid fliers, Webb will help out more early on.
I think Odorizzi is a little safer, overall.
Hello Nick,
I drafted Framber late with hopes of good news to come. Webb 6 IP 1 ER today against the A’s starters. Love Webb’s early schedule. Make the swap or hold out a little longer on Framber. He is still listed as DTD so I can’t stash him on IL.
Thanks in advance for your feedback
I’d personally jump for Webb.
Where would Sonny Gray be on your list if not missing a start or two? (didn’t see him on the table with Gallen et al). Thanks!
I’m old and my eyes don’t work so good, but I don’t see Framber on the List or on the fringe list. Where does he slot assuming full health.
Hey Nick, What about Chad Kuhl?
Removing the injured pitchers really hurts the utility of your rankings. Pre draft or post draft, fantasy is all about making decisions balancing short term vs. long term. Now it’s hard to evaluate a pitcher like Sonny Gray because I don’t know how much he’s “knocked down” because of a short term injury.
Your analysis is the best but I think in general you should think more season-long with the rankings rather than short term tactics (like schedules, etc.) That stuff is only relevant to specific types of leagues.
Thank you Nick for doing this.
At the risk of showing my age I remember the year Cliff Lee broke out in 2008 … he had a miserable spring training, his era was 5.68, guys were hitting everything … I know, I know, it sounds like don’t trust spring stats right? But, there was also something else going on – Cliff Lee was ecstatic. Despite getting hit hard every spring game Cliff Lee was very positive, even jubilant (for Cliff Lee) with what he was doing on the mound. While I cant say for sure what happened as statcast really wasn’t a thing, listening to Cliff Lee interviews after spring games it sounded like he throwing down the same pitch over and over and over. In the interviews he would talk about working on one pitch during a game. In short he was getting hammered because the batter knew exactly what was coming.
And while I cannot say anyone this season is following this unorthodox approach, I feel like Casey Mize is the closest thing to it. I cant prove it, but when I watch Mize play I feel like he is skrewing around with stuff when he is on the mound during spring training, maybe not caring so much about getting hit. So yeah, the cliche stands, don’t trust spring results … BUT sometimes horrible results can tell a good story too. Not sure where Mize will end up at the end of the season but I suspect its upwards somewhere in the rankings. Just my gut suspicion.
Thanks again!
With so many potentially good pitchers coming back from injury in the next month, it would be REALLY helpful if there was a way to reflect where you would draft them now if you were drafting… maybe a extra column to the list to show this (sounds sacrilegious, I know…maybe there is a better way). Anyways, thanks for the incredible amount of work you and your cohorts put in, Nick… this site is lapping the field).