3. Bobby Witt Jr. (SS, KC) – Witt Jr. was literally better at everything we care about for fantasy in his second season compared to his first. Less chasing, more contact, better quality of contact, more power, more walks, fewer strikeouts, and more counting stats. The underlying metrics suggest there’s nothing fluky about Witt Jr.’s game, and our fancy PLV metrics tell us that he was getting stronger as the season progressed.
4. Mookie Betts (2B/SS/OF, LAD) – News that Betts will be the everyday second baseman for the Dodgers is fun because it means he’ll retain his most valuable position in all formats for at least another two seasons. The new stolen base rules didn’t help Betts get back to his pre-2020 speed totals, but a career-high 39 home runs and 233 combined runs and RBI with a .307 batting average makes the lower stolen base totals a non-issue. Betts is locked into the top of the order for the Dodgers, and his fantastic plate discipline ensures the ratios and counting stats will continue to pour in. Those in formats where you need 20 starts to gain positional eligibility won’t be able to plug Betts in as a shortstop, but that doesn’t impact his value in any way. Betts is the clear top dog at second base and also near the top in the outfield, and that’s what matters most.
5. Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD) – Freddie Freeman hasn’t finished at the top of the first base standings since 2018, which sounds bad until I add in the fact that he’s finished in the top two at first base for six consecutive seasons. Freeman finished second at first base again in 2023, though he was also the third-best hitter overall so it’s not as though he wasn’t close. You won’t find a more consistent player, especially at first base where the top talent vastly outshines the middle tiers. The power rebounded in 2023, the ratios and counting stats stayed elite, and there’s nothing to indicate that 2024 will be any different. Make the safe pick and feel awesome about it.
6. Kyle Tucker (OF, HOU) – I’ve never been shy about how much I love Tucker ever since I saw him constantly give pitchers a tough time in his first “full” season in 2020. His 60 combined home runs and stolen bases with over 200 combined runs and RBI should be the norm for this in-his-prime outfielder, and his .294 and .284 batting averages in 2021 and 2023 feel far more like Tucker’s true talent than his .257 in 2022. He doesn’t have the same ceiling as some of the other players in this range, but his remarkable consistency and projected promotion to the actual heart of the Astros lineup suggests yet another fantastic season for the young outfielder.
Tier 2
7. Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) – If Judge plays 140 games, he’s going to hit 45 home runs or more. It’s a given at this point, considering he walloped 37 of them in just 106 games in 2023. The only real concern with Judge is the health, which is a bummer after he spent all of 2021 and 2022 in the lineup. That said, ranking Judge eighth is only happening because of that risk, so don’t take the bait of a “double penalty” and drop him out of this tier in your ranks. The upside is way too high to make that kind of blunder, as there is no better bet to lead the American League (and all of baseball) in home runs than a healthy Aaron Judge.
The addition of Soto to the lineup should also mean more counting stats as the 2023 Yankees were simply dying for a hitter other than Judge (and to a lesser extent, Torres) to help carry their offense.
8. Juan Soto (OF, NYY) – If you’re designing a swing decision model, the best way to test that it works is to see what it says about Soto. If it says he’s amazing, then the model is working. It was great to see Soto hit more home runs than he did in the infamous 2019 rabbit ball season while also getting back to double-digit stolen bases. 2022 was a weird year for him, but the resurgence in 2023 tells us what we already should have known—that 2022 was a fluke.
The most impactful part of the move to New York is the improved home run environment, going from the 10th worst home run park for lefties to the third best. This gives Soto a better shot at finding 40 home runs for the first time in his career if he feels like pulling more fly balls, but I’d say the baseline is still 33-35 home runs with elite ratios. Weirdly enough, Yankee Stadium had the second lowest Expected Home Runs by Park according to Statcast for Soto with 27, tied with Progressive Field and Kauffman Stadium, which are notoriously tough home run parks for southpaws.
9. Shohei Ohtani (UT, LAD) – His elbow surgery shouldn’t scare you too much—Ohtani played nearly every game in 2019 after he returned to the lineup in May, and his surgery was so early that he should be ready to go for Spring Training in the batter’s box. Now that Ohtani is a Dodger, I feel comfortable penciling in 38 or more home runs and an obscene number of runs and RBI—both Betts and Freeman had over 230 combined runs and RBI and even if you see a bit of dilution with Ohtani being added, all three are sure to clear 200 with upside for much more.
11. Fernando Tatis Jr. (OF, SDP) – Playing in 141 games after missing all of 2022 was a meaningful step towards bucking the injury-prone label we’ve been forced to use with Tatis, and that was the biggest concern I had. Tatis didn’t show us consistent power in 2023 nor did he make strong decisions, but let’s not forget that he was coming off a season where he didn’t play and is going into his age-25 season. The power and speed still look excellent based on Statcast data (even if they weren’t quite what we saw in 2020 and 2021), and there’s top-five upside in Tatis based on what he’s shown us in flashes so far in his career. The loss of Soto could impact his counting stats, though Tatis found plenty of runs scored and RBI back in 2021 so I’m not factoring that too much into this ranking.
12. Matt Olson (1B, ATL) – We knew Olson had power, but my goodness. Olson hit at least seven home runs every single month and did damage in just about every scenario against just about every type of pitcher all while maintaining a career-best walk rate and a solid strikeout rate. In most cases where we see big upticks in home runs, it’s something like an elevated fly ball rate or an increased pull rate, yet Olson’s fly ball rate was no different than usual and his pull rate was the lowest of his career. How did he do it? It’s shockingly simple, really—he just hit the ball harder. He did make better decisions too—especially at the end of the season—but he seemed to find another gear in terms of raw power. There are some potentially compelling explanations in the human side of the game, such as leaving the meaningless baseball wasteland of Oakland for the thriving competitive pastures of Atlanta, but all that matters is that we’ve recalibrated what “ceiling” means for Matt Olson and it’s “top-three overall hitter”.
13. Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU) – Talent isn’t the issue here—his career-to-date 162-game average is 43 home runs, 109 runs scored, 128 RBI, and a .295/.390/.588 line. Even with no stolen bases, that’s a Tier 1 player. The issue, of course, is that 162 games is a tall order for a guy with two bum knees. Alvarez managed just 114 games in 2023, though he still managed to hit 31 home runs and drive in 97 runners. You might move him slightly down your board if you took Judge in the first round (yes, you should consider adjusting your board even after your very first pick as you’re no longer “in a vacuum”), or if you’re in a deeper format like the NFBC where the replacement level is very low, but in shallower standard formats you needn’t hesitate to scoop up this husky slugger.
14. Bryce Harper (1B, PHI) – Arguably, moving strictly to first base improves Harper’s value, as first base is not nearly as deep as outfield in standard formats—especially those requiring just three in the outfield. Harper missed time early in the season (though not as much as we thought he might) due to elbow surgery in the offseason, and it rather predictably led to a bit of a slow start in terms of power. As he continued to get further from his surgery date, Harper’s power began to return and by the end of the season, he was back to normal, as you can see in the rolling chart below. Durability will continue to be a concern until he strings together a few healthy seasons again, but when healthy, Harper is still one of the best run producers in baseball.
Tier 3
15. Corey Seager (SS, TEX) – A return to a batting average north of .300 and once again clearing the 30 home run mark was no surprise, but the fact that Seager did it in just 119 games was quite eye-opening. Injuries have always been a factor with Seager as he’s played in just 66% of his team’s games since the start of the 2018 season (which is roughly 107 games in a 162-game season). In a 140-game season, I’d look for Seager to hit 35-40 home runs with high ratios and 200 or more combined runs and RBI. In fact, on a per-game basis, Seager was the fourth-best fantasy hitter among players with at least 250 plate appearances behind Acuna, Ohtani, and Carroll. Assuming you can work around the potential missed time and the lack of steals, there’s a lot to like here with Seager.
16. Ozzie Albies (2B, ATL) – Being a fixture near the top of the lineup for Atlanta is a pretty sweet gig for fantasy. Hitting behind Acuña means there are tons of runs to drive in (and you only need to hit a single to get him in) and hitting in front of Olson means getting on base gives you a good chance to score a run. Throw in 30 home run power, double-digit stolen bases, and a position that’s light on elite talent, and you’ve got yourself a top-20 player. The batting average might be a bit up and down from year to year, but it won’t ever hurt you, making him well worth a second or third-round pick.
17. José Ramírez (3B, CLE) – Oddly, Statcast felt that Ramírez was a better hitter with significantly more power in 2023 than he was in 2022 despite the downturn in home runs. We didn’t see anything from J-Ram in 2023 that we didn’t expect—as many walks as he had strikeouts, plus power, nearly 30 stolen bases, and excellent ratios. I think there are more home runs in here based on the history and Statcast data and the counting stats should improve by dumb luck and some better health in Cleveland, so I’m expecting better numbers in 2024 than he did in 2023.
18. Austin Riley (3B, ATL) – I had no idea Riley had 20 more runs scored in 2023 than he had RBI—an extremely unusual split for a number-three hitter who hits behind players like Albies and Acuña. Expect that to change (not that it matters too much for his overall value), but for the 35+ home run power and excellent batting average to continue. I suppose there’s a 45 home run ceiling if everything pans out just right and he starts selling out for pull power, but honestly, I’d prefer Riley just be the Riley we’ve seen for three consecutive seasons.
19. Rafael Devers (3B, BOS) – It’s difficult to separate Riley and Devers from a pure talent perspective—both have 35 home run power and both will hit somewhere around .280-.290—but I give the edge to Riley for being on a much better team. I guess in an OBP league I might flip them around since Devers takes more walks and should outpace Riley by about 10-15 points, but I’m only bringing it up to have another sentence in this blurb.
20. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, TOR) – It was a very disappointing season for Vladito as he failed to reach 30 home runs, 80 runs scored, or 95 RBI along with a lower-than-expected .264 batting average. Oddly, the Statcast data suggests he made better contact in 2023 than he did in 2022 despite the dip in actual production. Guerrero should bounce back from the rough campaign, though the further we get from his 2021 breakout, the more we have to question what to reasonably expect from a full season. He should put up numbers that are equal to (or better than) guys like Riley or Devers, but until he does it a second time, we have to have a bit of caution.