Tier 9 (continued)
81. Jake Burger (3B, MIA) – Many have probably noticed that Burger’s strikeout rate was markedly better after moving to Miami, but as the rolling chart below shows, he started making this change well before the trade. Burger’s floor is very much tied to how often he can make contact when he swings due to his immense power, and if the strikeout rate improvement sticks, then this ranking will turn out to be far too low. There’s reason to believe he can hold on to it though, as he showed exceptional decision-making skills against breakers and improved against fastballs as the season went on. If he can keep making good decisions against the breaking balls and be even average against fastballs, he could be a force.
82. Jackson Chourio (OF, MIL) – After signing an 8-year $82 million contract, Chourio is all but guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster. Chourio ranks as one of the game’s top prospects and has an incredibly high fantasy ceiling. This past season, he hit 22 home runs and stole 44 bases between Double-A and Triple-A. He showed noticeable improvements to his contact skills helping ease some of the worries for his transition to the Major Leagues. He projects as a 24/45 player at his ceiling and could easily post 15 home runs with 30+ stolen bases this year.
Here is what Martin concluded in our composite article from November:
“Chourio is a no-brainer elite prospect. His power/speed blend is virtually unmatched and he’s just 19.”
83. Evan Carter (OF, TEX) – After breaking out during the 2022 season, Carter continued his impressive offensive performance in 2023. Standing at 6’4”, Carter packs plenty of raw power in his swing which is aided by his elite plate discipline. Carter made his Major League debut on September 8 and produced some massive swings helping the Rangers capture their first World Series title. He is not going to post a 180 wRC+ again, but he should be a reliable contributor for both the Rangers and dynasty managers in 2024.
Carter was excluded from our composite article in November due to already having made his Major League debut. However, Matt Heckman wrote a piece on hitters with small samples in December that you can check out here.
84. Max Muncy (3B, LAD) – 2023 was the first time Muncy drove in over 100 runners, and his 36 home runs tied a career high he had set in 2021. The batting average will always stink and his OBP is more neutral than it is positive these days, but another year as the primary third baseman for the Dodgers gives Muncy a top 50 upside. Being 33 years old and never having played in more than 144 games in a season is a bit of a bummer, as is losing the first and second base eligibility he’s had in years past. That said, the replacement level in standard leagues should make covering the 20-30 games he misses a breeze.
85. Willy Adames (SS, MIL) – Home runs and counting stats shouldn’t be an issue for Adames as 2023 proved that his glove will keep him in the lineup even during the ugliest of slumps. This was the second consecutive season, though, in which Adames was poison to your batting average and OBP, and also his hard hit rate took a noticeable dive to 36.1%. He’d been in the mid-40s as a Brewer from 2021 to 2022, and unless Adames can hit the ball with authority more consistently, he could get buried in the lineup again. That would cap his counting stat ceiling significantly and make it even harder to stomach the .220 to .230 batting average we have to expect from Adames in 2024. All that being said, guys in this range who can hit 30 home runs and have 170 combined runs and RBI are not easy to come by.
86. Isaac Paredes (1B/3B, TBR) – I have been on board for quite some time due to the hit tool and the way the Rays have used that skill and turned it into home runs. Despite the lower batting average, Paredes remains a guy who is excellent at making contact, and as long as he has an everyday role, I’m all in on another 28-30 home run season for Paredes and another 90+ RBI. I also believe he can repeat the .250 batting average due to his ability to avoid strikeouts and his willingness to take a walk rather than chase bad pitches.
Paredes happens to be an example of how expected stats can be misleading for players with specific skill sets. Baseball Savant’s expected batting average does not take batted ball direction into account because it is often fluky and year-to-year pull rates are not usually that sticky. That said, some players do make specific, intentional changes to their batted ball profile (like Paredes has), and it allows them to overperform those expected stats quite significantly.
87. Jarren Duran (BOS, OF) – The trade of Verdugo makes Duran the obvious pick to lead off for Boston, a role he excelled in last season as he hit .319/.350/.547 with 25 runs scored and 23 extra-base hits while going 12 for 13 in stolen base attempts over just 36 games. Injuries and inconsistency threw his train off the tracks at times, but a healthy Duran is more than capable of hitting 15 home runs and stealing 30 bases in 2024. He’s missed time with injury in two of the last three seasons and had two particularly brutal cold stretches in May and August, but Duran is more than worth taking a chance on in the middle rounds of a draft.
Tier 10
88. Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, KCR) – Injuries cut his 2023 far too short, but with Pasquantino’s excellent plate discipline creating a high long-term floor for his ratios, the only question is how much power he can find in the major leagues. He has 19 home runs so far in his 133-game major league career, and while he did hit 28 home runs across triple-A and the majors in 2022, I think asking for more than 22-25 is asking for too much from Vinnie P, especially if the trend in the chart below continues. Assuming he returns to being a plus decision-maker, Vinnie P should be a high-floor, moderate-ceiling first baseman, which sets him apart from Torkelson and Casas who have higher ceilings thanks to their power but much lower floors due to their contact issues.
89. Ha-Seong Kim (2B/3B/SS, SDP) – Another player who exceeded all reasonable expectations in 2023, Kim wound up at the top of the order and slapped his way into 17 home runs, 38 steals, and 84 runs scored. The stolen base upside is pulling him up these rankings, and his strong plate discipline should help Kim recreate something close to his .351 OBP from 2023. I’m not sure Kim can flirt with 40 steals again, but even if he only gets 30, he should be well worth this price.
The trade of Soto may have a weird effect on Kim as it will open up the top of the lineup. The Padres could move Kim to the number one or two spot as his contact-oriented approach is ideal for those roles, but San Diego is so right-handed heavy at this moment that they could also choose to use Cronenworth in that role and move Kim to fifth or sixth. Kim’s skillset is best for fantasy when he’s batting first or second, though hitting lower isn’t a bad thing for his RBI totals and he should get plenty of opportunities to run in either situation.
90. Ian Happ (OF, CHC) – Happ gets a boost in OBP leagues thanks to his double-digit walk rates, but even in standard leagues his 20-22 home runs and 12-15 steals should make an impact, especially since they come with over 80 runs and 80 RBI as long as he’s healthy and the Cubs can look anything like the 2023 version of themselves. Happ is mostly just an accumulator who provides everything except batting average, and if you’re in a deeper league or are at a place in your draft where you need a safety net in the outfield, Happ is your guy.
91. Rhys Hoskins (1B, MIL) – The 30-year-old slugger missed all of 2023 with a knee injury but Milwaukee was still surprisingly quick to scoop him up to be their primary first baseman. We know a healthy Hoskins is capable of 30 home runs with a .245 batting average, but injuries have now been major issues in two of the last three seasons. If he looks healthy in Spring Training, expect Hoskins to jump up significantly in these rankings, but until then, the health risk will hold him back.
92. Spencer Steer (1B/3B/OF, CIN) – Steer’s first full season in the big leagues went far better than anyone could have expected, with 23 home runs, 15 steals, and 160 combined runs and RBI with a .271/.356/.464 line. His average tailed off towards the end of the season, in part because pitchers started to challenge him less with hittable pitches (particularly breaking balls), but Steer responded well by showing he could make contact with the more difficult pitches.
I’d be surprised if Steer repeated his 15 stolen bases as he never stole more than eight in a single season in the minor leagues (eight to 10 is a better starting point), but Steer shouldn’t have an issue clearing 20 home runs again with strong counting stats and his hit tool is good enough to post above-average ratios.
93. Alec Bohm (1B/3B, PHI) – 2023 is probably the peak of what Bohm can be: 20 home runs, 97 RBI, and a .274/.327/.437 line. At one point in time, Bohm was considered a power prospect who could hit 25-30 home runs, but his time in the majors has seen him shift into being a contact-oriented hitter with a subpar barrel rate and a low fly ball rate. He finished inside the top 75 hitters thanks to the boosted RBI, and if Turner, Harper, and Castellanos can look like they did in the second half of 2023 he could flirt with 100 RBI again. That said, Bohm’s limited power (especially against right-handed pitching) makes such a high total tough to reach and makes him more of a high-floor player than anything else.
94. Thairo Estrada (2B/SS, SFG) – Despite missing over 40 games in 2023, Estrada managed to hit just as many home runs and steal a few more bases than he did in 2022 while also hitting for a better average. Estrada should again find himself at or near the top of the Giants lineup, but as it currently stands, the Giants offense will not create many run-scoring opportunities. 15 home runs and 25 steals could be there, but the counting stat totals aren’t going to be pretty unless the Giants make significant changes to the lineup and Estrada’s health risk exacerbates the counting stat issue even more.
95. Masataka Yoshida (OF, BOS) – Yoshida’s season probably felt worse than it was to those who rostered him due to the complete collapse of his power in August and September. He hit just two home runs over his final 33 games, and part of his descent was likely related to his increased aggression and worsening decision-making as the season wore on. On the plus side, while his contact ability faded it stayed safely above average and that tool plus some lessons learned over the offseason could lead Yoshida to 20 home runs, double-digit steals, and a batting average that flirts with .300. If it doesn’t, the floor should be high enough to keep him near or around the top-100 hitters unless the bottom completely falls out.
96. Cedric Mullins (OF, BAL) – With Henderson usurping the leadoff role from Mullins, the range of outcomes for the speedy outfielder is now much wider than in years past. Mullins finished well outside the top 100 hitters in 2023 thanks to a poor batting average, injuries, and then being forced into a platoon to end the season.
Mullins will get another shot at full-time plate appearances in 2024, though it will likely be lower in the order than in 2021 and 2022 (maybe sixth or so) and the leash will be short due to the up-and-coming outfield talent Baltimore has in the minor leagues. If Mullins can solidify his role in the lineup, there should be a path to 20 home runs and 30-35 steals that would put him inside the top 50. If he isn’t able to get into a groove, though, there’s the risk that he will post yet another finish outside the top 100, and possibly even outside the top 150.
97. MJ Melendez (C/OF, KCR) – Melendez finally turned it on towards the end of the season, hitting .286 with eight home runs over his last 44 games. Counting stats won’t be easy to come by in Kansas City, but there’s enough raw power in his bat that Melendez could get to 20 or more home runs in his everyday role and score 80 runs. The batting average won’t be better than .240, but in leagues where he’s still eligible at catcher, there’s plenty of value. As just an outfielder, Melendez falls at least 20-30 spots.
98. TJ Friedl (OF, CIN) – It was a breakout campaign for Friedl as he was able to stay healthy and with the big league club for a (mostly) full season’s worth of plate appearances. Friedl dramatically outperformed his expected stats in 2023, beating his Baseball Savant xwOBA by 63 points and his Pitcher List xwOBA (which includes batted ball direction) by 57 points with most of the difference coming in his power numbers. That kind of overperformance makes me doubtful that Friedl can replicate his 2023 performance in any category besides runs scored (as he projects to lead off for the Reds).
A more realistic baseline would probably be 15 home runs, 80-90 runs scored, and 20-22 steals, with a significant drop in ratios that are more likely to resemble the .240/.314/.436 he posted in 2022, which is far more inline with what his expected stats have shown at the major league level.
99. Eloy Jiménez (OF, CWS) – Health continues to evade Eloy as he played in just 120 games in 2023. From a talent perspective, he should be a .280+ hitter who hits 30 home runs and drives in 90 runners regularly, but the sheer number of injuries he’s suffered over the last three seasons makes that kind of projection much harder to imagine. Jiménez’s upside keeps him in my preseason top 100, but I’d need to feel pretty good about my power and consistency in the outfield to consider drafting him where he’ll likely be going.
100. Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B, PIT) – Health has been an issue for Hayes in each of the last three seasons, but it was great to see Hayes hit those 15 home runs in 124 games as it was more than he’d hit in the 232 games he played in 2021 and 2022. His aggressive approach will likely keep his OBP low, but the growth in Hayes’s power was real, and if he can have some better luck on the health side, we could see a 20-20 season. Sure, it’ll be on a bad Pirates offense that caps his counting stat totals, but it’s still pretty exciting.