Around this time in any baseball season, with the All-Star break fast approaching, it seems that all coverage revolves around the following items:
- All-Star snubs/surprises
- Players refusing the Home Run Derby
- Trade rumors
- Mock drafts and the mocking of previous drafts
- Convenient IL stints
- Remembrance of Bobby Bonilla Day
Most of these items tend to be harmless chatter used to keep us engaged with the game, but the impact of the trade deadline certainly has a way of affecting seasons, and sometimes even to decide them. Fans of contending teams can dream of a C.C. Sabathia-like run if they acquire an ace, or maybe even a surprise Jorge Soler type of addition to push a team over the edge.
The expanded playoff format has made the trade deadline more complicated than ever, especially so in a season like 2026, where many teams are still debating their strategy. In raw terms, 24 teams are within five games of a playoff spot, while a more comprehensive analysis like Fangraphs’ playoff odds model gives 18 franchises at least a 25% chance of playing in October. The takeaway from this is that not even playing out July should be enough to make things clear by the August 3 deadline.
Having said all this, there are a few tendencies that are already evident by this point, with clear contenders aiming to add towards a championship push, while teams with rough starts will be looking to unload talent in hopes of a better future. Today, we try to provide a better look of how these teams stand out, from those in the contention window extremes to the ones who are still on the fence. For all the obvious Tarik Skubal rumors lurking around, there are enough valuable players on the market to make a dent on the playoff picture.
The Obvious Sellers (not by choice)
This tier is reserved for teams with expectations to contend in 2026 but that have fallen flat in their quest. The fact that the Giants and Mets are battling it out with the Rockies for the worst record in the NL is embarrassing enough, and now that has morphed to a trade deadline where they will not probably receive a ton of value in exchange for their still-useful veterans.
The Mets’ weird offseason quickly morphed into an ugly season that has included a fired manager, injuries, and plenty of frustration. While cutting bait on Bo Bichette would be tough to swallow, it is more likely that the team will try to build around him, Juan Soto, and Francisco Lindor, while everyone else is expendable at this point. Former Brewers ace Freddy Peralta is as good as gone, being a free agent by the end of the season. While his current ERA of 4.68 has him looking far from his former self, be sure that many contenders will be eager to find a way to fix him and become a #2-3 kind of starter for the stretch run. Outside of Peralta, look for the Mets to move other minor pieces like Clay Holmes or Brooks Raley, or even go as far as to give up on Mark Vientos.
.@jonmorosi on Luis Arraez's trade market:
"I would highlight most of all the Texas Rangers…" pic.twitter.com/87o8WdWyux
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 3, 2026
Meanwhile, the Giants may have the worst case of a top-heavy roster in the majors, with several strong performances felled by a bad rotation and an even worse bullpen. POBO Buster Posey recently suggested that nearly every veteran on the team is available for the right offer, but it is unlikely that many offers arise for the likes of Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, or Willy Adames. Instead, there are two players that are nearly certain to change uniforms, especially after a strong month of June. Luis Arraez continues to be a pest at the plate and has a chance at another batting title, but his biggest surprise comes in the form of defense (though maybe teams will be hesitant to add him as he separates from infield guru Ron Washington). Robbie Ray has shaken off a rocky start to get back to his grunting ways in the best possible form, going 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA in June, and he should be a coveted arm for any contender. San Francisco may not have much to move outside of them, but a creative offer for a player like Jung-Hoo Lee could move the needle a bit, while Logan Webb should remain off the table.
Others at risk of joining this tier: Padres, Reds, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles
On The Fence (Buyers Edition)
This section provides an opportunity to highlight teams that just as easily can fade away with a bad July or that can stay hot enough to carve out an improbable playoff run. Either way, the league would be well served if they decide to be bold and go for it, especially with a potential lockout looming in the offseason. Most of them are ahead of contention schedule in some way, or are just coming into their own following years of irrelevancy, but they can create a memorable 2026 if they choose to go outside of their usual element.
The most obvious members of this section are the Chicago White Sox, as they continue to prove they are not a fluke. With a soft schedule going forward and a very winnable division, they should be pushing their chips towards their first playoff appearance since 2020. The return from the IL of Munetaka Murakami should be a nice boost on its own, but the need for veteran pitchers is evident here. Chicago may not have the resources to add a star, but even competent innings-eaters could do wonders to complement a young staff on the verge of reaching uncharted territory in terms of their workload. The Sox may not be a huge contender in terms of a pennant, but in a down year for the AL, just making the dance would be a major boost for the franchise.
The Pirates, Marlins, and Nationals present similar cases in the National League, as they are all extremely competent in one or two facets of the game, but not well-rounded enough to be considered a true threat. The Pirates have seen Paul Skenes struggle a bit, but their biggest need is in the bullpen, where many late leads have been lost. While the front office’s quest to upgrade the offense has been met with a potent attack, Pittsburgh now needs to find a way to secure those wins. A similar case happens in Washington, albeit to a more extreme extent. The Nats are on the brink of becoming the first team to score 500 runs, but their staff has nearly given it all back, leading to a record barely above .500. Even with long playoff odds, the Nationals fanbase has suffered enough that any whiff of a playoff chase would be welcome in the nation’s capital, as even serviceable pitchers of any kind would be an upgrade.
Miami is a weird case, as a stellar June has propelled them to a wild card spot while also being near the top of the NL East. At the same time, you will continue to hear Sandy Alcantara trade rumors, as the ever-enigmatic franchise can go in several directions. Their collection of no-name offensive contributors always seem to find a way to score and rely on small ball, while adding veterans could become an issue for a team that maximizes energy, vibes, and the art of being pesky. The front office could decide that the Marlins can be good enough as they are, which remains a noble experiment for a team that has become quite fun to watch.
Others hoping to join this tier: Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Rangers
On the Fence (Sellers Edition)
The other side of the coin gives us teams that have looked cooked at several junctures of 2026, but with enough hope to at least have a punchers’ chance of contending. Coincidentally, these teams have some of the most relevant assets that could move around the deadline, making their July critical not only for their future, but also the future of several organizations.
Detroit will receive most of the attention simply by employing Tarik Skubal, and at one point they looked like sure-fire sellers, but a June rebound and the fact that they have underperformed their metrics by a ton should provide some hope that there is a last playoff run with the lefty ace guiding the roster. The Tigers are five game back of the last AL wild card and have a chance to chase down the Guardians and White Sox in the Central, but that needs to happen quickly. Should things fall apart, a bidding war should ensue for Skubal’s services, giving Detroit a chance to replenish its minor league system or add major league-ready talent to aim for a rapid rebound. Outside of Skubal, any Tigers sell-off should also include Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty, Kenley Jansen, and Casey Mize, all of whom look like useful pieces for several contenders.
.@JonHeyman mentions the Phillies and Yankees as potential suitors for back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal:
“He knows that there's a good chance he's getting traded…” pic.twitter.com/4lgBvj9OzG
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 6, 2026
Houston’s case is not as extreme, considering they are within striking distance in a weakened AL West, but they have enough weak spots to put a dent on any playoff hopes. The exploits of MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez would be awesome to watch in the playoffs, but the lack of pitching and uneven offense look like hard things to overcome. There is a chance for the Astros to become a buyer and try to make a run, but the reality is that they haven’t looked the part for most of 2026, coming off a transition year in 2025. While there have been some rumors suggesting that Jeremy Peña and closer Josh Hader could be on the block, it is more likely that the Astros will part ways with veteran power bats like Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker.
Other potential sellers: A’s, Twins
Ready to Buy
Despite the relative mess in the middle of the standings, there are seven teams with playoff odds above 80%, suggesting that they will basically look to add talent and improve their postseason positioning from here until October. This number may seem staggering, but it makes sense when considering how these rosters were built.
The usual suspects that will try to shop at luxury prices include the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Cubs, all of whom will be in the market for Skubal or any type of top-end pitching. The Yankees may also be on the lookout for a stable catcher and another power bat, as Aaron Judge’s injury may become worse than expected. The Dodgers continue to be the best and most complete team in baseball, while the Cubs are enigmatic but are finally embracing that identity to produce extreme results, even with their incredible string of pitching injuries. The Phillies may have the best rotation in the NL, but bullpen help could go a long way to avoid yet another early playoff exit.
At a more cost-sensitive level, we have the Mariners, Brewers, and Rays, as they lead their respective divisions with legitimate aspirations of winning their first World Series. We know that they will not be linked to any major names, but their front offices have earned enough goodwill to know that they will find a way to improve their rosters on the margins. Following last season’s near miss, Seattle should have the most urgency of this trio, especially if the back-end of the bullpen continues to struggle. Meanwhile, the Brewers and Rays have a history of coming up just short, and they could be on the market to go all-in, despite their instincts.
