Welcome to the inaugural edition of the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
This week, there are a lot of aces scheduled to take the bump for multiple starts. That leaves us with a smaller group of streaming options, but there are still a handful of guys worth targeting in one way or another. Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections and are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- This tier features a ton of elite pitchers, including four Tier One options in Nick Pollack’s Top 100 List: Garrett Crochet, Zack Wheeler, Logan Gilbert, and Cole Ragans. Start these guys with confidence in any matchup.
- Additionally, two Tier Two options from the Top 100 are expected to make two starts this week: Chris Sale and Michael King. King draws two phenomenal matchups—on the road vs. the Athletics and home vs. the Rockies—making him a top-flight option for the upcoming week. Sale will have to navigate a tough first matchup vs. the Phillies, but you didn’t draft him to keep him on your bench.
- The rest of the options aren’t true fantasy “aces,” but they can be treated like such this week. That starts with Carlos Rodón. He hasn’t been dominant to start the year, but he gets two excellent chances to showcase his stuff vs. the Tigers and Giants.
- Pablo López is another good starter with two quality matchups on deck. The Royals don’t strike out a ton, but they were merely 26th in wRC+ vs. southpaws last season. The Tigers weren’t much better, so he’s another pitcher you can write down in pen.
- Nathan Eovaldi has skyrocketed up fantasy rankings with his dominant start to the year. He’s pitched to a 1.20 ERA, 1.45 FIP, and 2.42 xERA through his first two outings, striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings in the process. He even managed to throw a complete game in his last outing, which is basically an extinct species in the modern MLB. With matchups on deck at the Cubs and at the Mariners, he’s a no-doubt start this week.
- Kodai Senga made his return to the bump for the Mets on April 1, and he looked pretty much like the Senga of old. He allowed two earned runs in five innings, but he also punched out eight batters. His underlying metrics also looked strong, resulting in a 2.01 xERA and 2.85 FIP. He’ll see the Marlins again in his second outing this season, and he’ll follow that up with another plus matchup against the Athletics.
- The Reds have pitched remarkably well to start the year, especially with their first two series coming at home. The Great American Ballpark is an extreme hitter’s park, so the fact that Hunter Greene pitched well is promising for his prospects moving forward. Greene has always had electric stuff, and he could be ready to put it all together. His walks have been down through his first two starts, and he’s maintained an elite 12.0 K/9. Add in a road matchup vs. the Giants and a contest vs. the Pirates, and he’s another slam-dunk option.
- Zac Gallen’s matchups aren’t quite as favorable as some of the comparable starters in this tier, but it’s impossible to ignore what he’s done to start the year. He’s striking out nearly 15 batters per nine innings, including 13 punchouts in 6.2 scoreless innings vs. the Yankees in his last outing. If he can do that in Yankee Stadium, there’s no reason to consider benching him vs. the Orioles or Brewers.
- All aboard the Dustin May hype train. He couldn’t have done much better than he did in his first start: five innings, zero earned runs, six strikeouts. He did walk a handful of batters, but the stuff is too good to ignore. Pitching for the best team in baseball also brings plenty of win potential, especially against the Nationals and Cubs.
Most Likely
- Simeon Woods Richardson lasted just four innings in his first start, and his 4.50 ERA doesn’t jump off the page. That said, he deserved better. His FIP checked in at 1.10, thanks in part to his five strikeouts. If not for a .455 BABIP, he could’ve turned in a much stronger performance. He’ll have two excellent chances to rebound this week. The Royals are not a particularly imposing matchup, while the Tigers are one of the best matchups in baseball. He’s widely available across most fantasy leagues and should be scooped up ASAP.
- The same goes for Hayden Wesneski, who earns this week’s “Streamer of the Week” designation. He’s near the back end of the Top 100 rankings, but you can’t do much better than his two projected matchups. It starts with a trip to Seattle and one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. The Mariners also had the worst strikeout rate in the league against right-handers last season, so it’s about as good as it gets. He’s also slated to take on the Angels, who were 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handers in 2024. They’re 28th in that split so far this season, so grab Wesneski off the wire while you can.
- The other three pitchers in this tier all share similar characteristics. Freddy Peralta has been lights-out to start the year, pitching to a 2.08 ERA, 1.72 xERA, and 11.08 K/9. That said, are you really excited about firing him up at Coors Field or in Arizona? Peralta has always been a fly ball pitcher, so if he’s not generating swings and misses, there’s some real blowout potential in those spots. You’re likely still starting him, but there’s some downside.
- Logan Webb has basically looked like himself through his first two starts. His ERA is sitting at 3.00, and most of his ERA indicators are in the same ballpark. He’s also striking out right around a batter per inning. The Reds’ offense is definitely exploitable when outside the Great American Ballpark, but closing the week with a road matchup vs. the Yankees is a bit scary. Ultimately, it’s enough to drop him from the top tier to the second.
- Shane Baz is the wildcard in this tier. Calling his first start good would be an understatement. He racked up nine strikeouts across six scoreless innings, and he finished with a negative FIP. Of course, that matchup was against the Pirates. He’ll ease into the week with another solid matchup vs. the Angels, but the difficulty will be cranked up against the Braves. Baz may become a no-doubt must-start in short order, but we need to see it against some higher-level competition.
Questionable
- Justin Steele should not find himself in this tier, but here we are. He’s made three starts this season—one in Japan, two in the US—and he hasn’t pitched particularly well in any of them. He’s yet to post an ERA of better than 5.40 in any outing, and things aren’t going to get any easier for him in the upcoming week. The Rangers aren’t a dreadful matchup, but they’re not exactly a walk in the park, either. Their offense has yet to get rolling this season, but they were roughly average against southpaws last season. The second matchup is the real killer. He’ll have to square off with the Dodgers for the second time, and this time, he’ll have to do it in Los Angeles. Unless he shows some real strides vs. the Rangers, he’s going to be extremely risky against LA.
- Zach Eflin is another pitcher who is probably a bit better than this ranking in a vacuum. He’s been a Toby for most of his career, and he owns a 3.75 ERA and 3.15 xERA through two starts with the Orioles. However, the strikeouts have been minimal, so he’s relied on limiting the damage on balls in play. That’s a risky formula in Arizona vs. the Diamondbacks.
- Logan Allen is probably not a very good pitcher. He had a solid rookie campaign, but he regressed badly as a sophomore and was an abject disaster in his first start of the year. Seriously, one strikeout compared to five walks does not inspire much confidence. Still, he gets a matchup vs. the White Sox, and almost any pitcher with a pulse is worth considering against them. They had the worst wRC+ in baseball vs. southpaws last season, so if you can stomach some risk, he has some upside as a streamer in that contest.
- Casey Mize was the “Streamer of the Week” in last week’s writeup, but unfortunately, he only ended up making one start. The good news is that he absolutely crushed in that outing. He pitched 5.2 scoreless innings with six strikeouts, so a breakout campaign remains a possibility. He’s a former top prospect, and at 27 years old, he could be ready to put it all together. Don’t roll him out vs. the Yankees, but he’s certainly usable against the Twins.
- Michael Lorenzen is a pretty ho-hum pitcher, and he gets two ho-hum matchups vs. the Twins and Guardians. He won’t help you much, but he probably won’t hurt you much, either.
- Connor Gillispie held his own against the Mets in his first start of the year, and he’ll see them again on Monday. That’s a risky spot, but he closes the week with a much stronger matchup vs. Washington.
- Trevor Williams vs. Dodgers = bad. But Williams vs. Marlins? Why not. For what it’s worth, he pitched to a 2.68 xERA and a 1.65 FIP in his first outing this season.
- Matthew Liberatore logged a mediocre 4.50 ERA in his first outing this season, and he had just four punchouts in six innings. But his ERA indicators were much stronger—3.54 xERA, 1.52 FIP—and he starts the week with a matchup vs. the Pirates.
Avoid
- There’s nothing to get excited about here: no exciting prospects, no elite matchups, minimal win upside. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
