Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + I stream the creation of this article LIVE at 1:00pm ET Monday afternoons.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The HIPSTER players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just two labels per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from John Villavicencio, though we will be conferring each week. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as spec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash right now in 12-teamers.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses, granted by our PLV powered Projections (in alphabetical order by tier):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend reading my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
I’ve changed the notes this year to have a small blurb on everyone. Much easier to write and follow along in my view and it matches the formatting of the streamers. Please leave your feedback on this change – is it better or worse?
Tier 1 – The True Aces
These pitchers are dope and make us feel dope.
1. Tarik Skubal – The safest combo of volume, ratios, Wins, and strikeouts. You can chase Skenes if you must, Skubal is safer.
2. Garrett Crochet – I adore Crochet’s four-seamer/cutter foundation and see it as the strongest pair to demand success out there. His health question is less of a concern to me after the White Sox did the very best thing to ensure health in 2025. He’s so good.
3. Paul Skenes – I get the love. He also surprises batters with horizontal run, not vertical rise, which lowers his four-seamer strikeout rate. In fact, our PLV projections have Skenes with a sub 30% strikeout rate because of it. I totally get it.
4. Zack Wheeler – He’s Wheeler. You’re going to get a stud for the year even if it isn’t the 30% strikeout rate of others.
5. Jacob deGrom – deGrom is the healthiest he’s been since 2019 and still sitting 97+ mph. You could even argue his elbow is healthier than many others given he just had it repaired vs. the scores of pitchers who are distant from their TJS or have never gotten it. 62% sliders against RHB was hilarious to watch.
6. Cole Ragans – He had a rough first outing and still battled through out. I didn’t update anyone inside the Top 42 for a reason – it’s too early to make any changes.
7. Logan Gilbert – I feel weird about this one. To the best of my knowledge, the Mariners haven’t changed T-Mobile Park (The Tea), which opens the door for another season of good performance simply based on the 25%+ boost in strikeouts at home. His elite extension makes his slider the best in the majors, but his overall command has always made me a little cautious. The four-seamer overperformed massively last year (.170 BABIP to RHB from .300+?!) and I think we’ll see him return to his 2023 self instead of maintaining this plateau. I’m leaving him here given the chance he does repeat or even improve.
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by May.
8. Corbin Burnes – I’m weirded out by Burnes’ cutter. We saw it lose vertical drop in his first two starts, gain some back in his last one, and while I want to believe it’ll be the same cutter we saw in late August/September last season, I have to acknowledge that Burnes could settle with a strikeout rate under 25% with a few problems here and there. Still dig it, just not like the other studs above.
9. Max Fried – The first start struggles returned, as is tradition. Nothing new here.
10. Tyler Glasnow – The ability is obviously fantastic, but how much are we going to get? The difference between him and deGrom is partially quality, but moreso that the Dodgers are more likely to manipulate his starts to stretch out his health instead of starting without a leash until he hits the IL. In other words, you don’t get the same length of time for a replacement SP for the same number of innings.
11. Dylan Cease – I get why Cease is a thing. I get it. He bothers me given his questionable command and struggles with LHB, but the changeup he’s shown in the spring is still around and
12. Michael King – He was sub 60% strikes on all his pitches and we know that’s not who he is. He struggled at the beginning last year, too.
13. Joe Ryan – He’s recovered from his Teres injury and still has a fantastic fastball. I like how he’s exploring other options to complement the heater this year, too, including a sinker that should do wonders to limit his HR rate to RHB. He’s a low WHIP pitcher who could flirt with a 3.00 ERA and 25-30% strikeout rate for a winning club. He’s set up for the high volume season you’ve envisioned for a while.
14. Chris Sale – Last year had all the signs of a peak season for Sale in the backhalf of his career – injury avoidance (save for the final few weeks) + squeezing the most out of a 95 mph four-seamer (not the mid-to-upper 90s of old) – and I don’t feel comfortable paying more than this with the expectation of 90% of that peak.
15. Blake Snell – Hey Snell. Can you do us all a favor and make this the one season you actually produce from the first start? No more “I lost my curve” or “I’m hurt” or whatever. Just dominate, okay? That’s unlikely. I KNOW.
16. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – There’s an innings cap given the Dodgers’ desire to limit him for the Playoffs, but the quality per inning is strong. Not absurd ace, but we’re all trusting Yamamoto to give us Wins and production across the board.
Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night
They have to earn the AGA tag but are just a few starts away from it.
17. Spencer Schwellenbach – He has so many weapons. A stellar cutter in the low 90s, two whiff-heavy breakers, a 96 mph four-seamer, and a splitter to attack LHB whenever it’s cooking. The major concern is workload after pushing over 160 frames between the minors and majors out of nowhere last year and it’s a decent chance last year’s sample isn’t representative of his command in the year ahead, especially with a four-seamer that was more hittable than expected. I’m optimistic his skill set is here to stay + the situation in Atlanta is made for him to excel.
18. Pablo López – He’s moved over to the right of the mound closer to 3B and I like the principle – it’ll help his sinker and sweeper – he hasn’t found the rhythm in camp quite yet. The fact López has carried an elevated hit rate across his career and has lost a bit of his sparkle on the changeup has me less enthusiastic than previous seasons. Still a guy you’re never dropping, of course.
19. Tanner Bibee – The slider split off into two distinct breakers last year and the “Cutter” variant was stupid good. I’m far more in than ever given that pitch and the more traditional slider, while the changeup and four-seamer are still the same. His leash is high with 90+ pitches per start on a winning club and that sounds lovely to me.
20. Shota Imanaga – I’m not gonna lie, I’m a little spooked by the massive 2-3 tick drop of his four-seamer and lower vert on his fastball from his most recent spring outing. I know, I know, it’ll very likely go up in his next start, but with all of these desirable arms without that ding, I figure it’s best to lower him proactively just a touch. I still adore his splitter, well spotted heater that gets effective strikes, and a sweeper to silence LHB. I know, he needs to be back in Tier 2 given his prophetic IM AN AGA. He’ll get that. I think.
21. Justin Steele – Give me the volume, ratios, Win chance, and shockingly good strikeouts of Steele. If you look at the starts he was actually healthy, it was a four-month stretch of being an absolute stud around a 2.50 ERA and 25%+ strikeout with a sparkling WHIP fueled by a 95th ICR rate – so much weak contact, y’all. I don’t care that he was blown up for 7 ER earlier in the week unless it becomes an actual trend across March.
22. Robbie Ray – The changeup and slider held a stupid low strike rate and he still was gold through five over the weekend. I’m excited for this.
23. Logan Webb – I’m encouraged by Webb experimenting with a deep arsenal across the spring, allowing him to do more than just hurl changeups over the plate and hope for the best. I don’t expect absurd SP #1 ability, but beneficial volume is a good thing as I don’t expect the 1.23 WHIP to repeat – batters were able to lace his changeup far more than they should have last season and he’s making the right adjustments to bring that hit rate back down to acceptable levels.
24. Bryce Miller – So strange to see Miller pull back on the four-seamer heavily and I hope the lean into curveballs against LHB continues. There’s no need to throw more sinkers than four-seamers against RHB, though. That’s all kinds of weird and likely won’t stick.
25. Framber Valdez – Framber’s 2024 was terrible until his curveball unreal for roughly two months and the curve was…fine in his first start. Welcome to the ride.
Tier 4 – So Dang Close To Greatness
I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also carry the ability to be more than an SP #3.
26. Hunter Greene – Greene is still holding the high velocity and the slider is earning strikes. He’s the best he’s ever been and I expect to be moving him up in due time.
27. Sandy Alcantara – He was allowed to through 90+ pitches in his first start. Yes, he showed signs of fatigue we didn’t see in 2022/2023, but hot dang, the Marlins just don’t care. AND I LOVE IT.
28. Bryan Woo – The four-seamer and sinker are a beautiful match, though I’m not convinced he’s developed enough with the rest of his arsenal to become a consistent 25%+ strikeout arm, especially away from T-Mobile Park. Throw in his annoying injury history from last year and you have more risk than I want for such a fun pitcher. He really looks like a mini Zack Wheeler to me if he could just stay healthy.
29. Ryan Pepiot – Pepiot looked fantastic against the Rockies, Rockie Road or not. The changeup was legit, the four-seamer still has iVB up the wazoo, and the slider earned whiffs. So far so good here.
Tier 5 – Why Do I Feel So Scared?
This is the toughest tier to rank and will likely be filled with landmines. Which will turn into the stud you dreamed of and which will be the bust?
30. Luis Castillo – I see a degrading fastball and a slider/change combo that doesn’t work as well at it used to. You can’t expect the WHIP to benefit massively and even carries risk of hurting your teams this year. The strikeout volume has always been there, though, and it’s highly unlikely we actually drop Castillo this year, but if Castillo is going to go in any direction, it’s south.
31. Aaron Nola – There wasn’t a whole lot separating Nola last year from his 2023 season at the shallow level – mostly LOB rate, really – and I’m worried that his curveball was far less effective and led to a 1.20 WHIP. I see a guy without an overpowering fastball who is losing the dominance of his best pitch and that should scare you. In a draft filled with exciting arms with potential growth, I’d prefer to avoid those who we hope are at a plateau.
32. Jack Flaherty – I’m worried about Flaherty’s ability to replicate the command of his slider and curveball from last year, while masking his four-seamer effectively. Worth the risk here for another stellar strikeout performance with digestible ratios, but I have more pause than I’d like.
33. Carlos Rodón – Rodón’s embrace of changeups to RHB in the second half helped him stabilize and I was thrilled to see keep the approach in his first start. This looks like a sturdy arm who could climb up to be the king of the Holly starters.
34. Freddy Peralta – Peralta lost extension last year and I’m a bit spooked about it. He’s supposed to be the extension darling and every draft season I question what we’re going to get. That said, he’s not going to dropped…right? That four-seamer eats up LHB and his slider is sure to find more strikes than it did last year. I think. Probably.
35. Bailey Ober – He was sick, y’all. Let’s just wait another week and see what happens.
36. Kodai Senga – Ayyyy, he’s healthy again! The ghost fork is sure to keep the strikeout numbers alive and we saw Senga cruise during his rookie season once he settled into a groove starting in mid-June. Last year’s injuries are a thing of the past and I’m willing to bank on the four-seamer + cutter + splitter mix granting 25% strikeouts with good enough ratios for a winning club. I was tepid on Senga before his final outing, which was the first game of producing in a long time.
Tier 6 – Same But Different
These are also Holly types, but they aren’t as exciting as the ones above. You should be fine with them, there’s just a little more risk.
37. Cristopher Sánchez – He’s throwing two ticks harder again and it should be enough to lower the stupid high nine hits-per-nine that inflated his WHIP last year. The cutter isn’t a thing, sadly, but that velocity alone should be enough to make him a more effective arm all around as he goes deep into games for a winning team. I’m not as jazzed without his cutter being a major addition, sadly.
38. Sonny Gray – I worry that the sinker and sweeper won’t be nearly as effective in two-strike counts, bringing his strikeout rate back to its 2022/2023 rates around 24%, not the 30% explosion of 2024. 40% putaway rate to RHB with sinkers? Seriously?! He’s not the largest volume arm, either, and the Cardinals are not set to dominate the NL Central, lowering the Win chance a little more than others. His history of ebbs and flows in-season also make me a little annoyed to roster him and I’d rather not draft Sonny. That’s a me thing, though, you do you.
39. Hunter Brown – Hunter weirds me out. I want to say his four-seamer is his “hero” pitch, but it doesn’t come with the metrics you want to see. The sinker and cutter are the same and even switching to the cutter over the slider last year didn’t bring out an elite pitch. It’s all “good” and maybe that’s enough for a winning team? I’m also possibly not banking in enough potential for development this year, though at this point in the draft I want to have a little more I can point at and say “Yes! That thing! That’s what makes him so good!” I’m ready to be completely wrong here and honestly, I hope I am. I want every pitcher to be dope. Just promise me, Hunter. If you are dope, please do so in a way that makes sense? K thx.
40. Zac Gallen – I’m obviously afraid of Gallen. His four-seamer is getting worse each year and the curveball is the only reliable secondary of the lot. It’s awesome and the true deathball of the 2023 World Series, but the changeup and cutter/slider combo aren’t doing their part for a while. That high WHIP from 2024 may not be an anomaly many drafters believe it is.
41. Seth Lugo – Sure, he’s unlikely to repeat exactly, but his velocity is there and he still has his awesome arsenal of nine pitches. He’ll produce with a strikeout rate a touch over 20% and that’s cool with me.
Tier 6.5 – The Pitcher List Hall Of Famers
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Tier 7 – I Like These Guys, Right?
I can see how all of these arms become obvious draft targets in retrospect come April 15th, but still have a few things to overcome.
42. Jackson Jobe – He’s earned the fifth spot (even if it’ll be a little short at first with Maeda following in all likelihood) and I believe the strikeouts will come in time. It may be a little rough around the edges at first as he figures out how to utilize his elite stuff best + command the four-seamer a little better, but there’s a solid floor here as he figures it out and the ceiling is massive. That cutter and curve are ridiculous and he hurls mid-to-upper 90s.
43. Drew Rasmussen – Now confirmed as the fifth starter, I’m all in on Rasmussen. He’s stretched out to 70+ pitches and is stupid hard to hit, with upside for whiffability that we saw before he went down with injury. I understand the injury concern, though the quality is there for the taking.
44. MacKenzie Gore – It’s a massive bump after Gore featured a new slider that completely changed what he does. Is it possible this doesn’t stick? ABSOLUTELY. However, the ceiling is clear and with questions for everyone here, why not take the one with such clear and present upside?
45. Gavin Williams – Gavin, you lied to us. You said you would be showcasing a cutter during the season. WHERE IS IT?! I’m not going to make a move so soon here, but it’s…annoying.
46. Grant Holmes – He hasn’t pitched yet and I wish he didn’t have to get the Dodgers.
47. Roki Sasaki – I was tempted to move Sasaki further down as he really needs a bridge pitch. That said, he’ll have better days with the splitter and make his spot very worth while overall.
48. Spencer Arrighetti – Arrighetti’s velocity was back to normal (phew!) and I’ll keep hope we get a little refinement on the full arsenal over time.
Tier 8 – The Tobys Who Could Be More
These are potential Holly arms and I find myself shrugging and drafting most of them when I don’t have enough of a floor on my pitching staff.
49. Nathan Eovaldi – He looked great. The curve earning whiffs galore adds another edge to Eovaldi, who was already a solid QS arm. I was too low on this.
50. Jeffrey Springs – Springs looked like the pre-TJS arm with his changeup and while he still has struggles against LHB, he’ll face RHB-heavy lineups a ton. Sunshine and rainbows here.
51. Nick Lodolo – I was impressed by Lodolo’s changeup command to RHB and it’s the first time we have a clean runway of health for Lodolo. This looks like the most exciting time to roster Lodolo.
52. Dustin May – We haven’t seen him go yet and don’t react to the negatives. It’s the same assessment, just a small tier change as I realized he’s closer to Eovaldi than Williams and G. Holmes.
53. Clay Holmes – I worry he’s too inefficient to be a true upside play, but he should be solid constantly.
54. Reese Olson – Now that the Dodgers are out of the way, we’re happy the 95 mph heaters are here to stay. Is the slider + changeup combo enough to mask a poor heater and a questionably placed sinker?
55. Nick Pivetta – Pivetta is the same guy with sweeper/four-seamer against RHB, curve/four-seamer against LHB. I think he’ll still have trouble against RHB and it’ll get harder by the summer when the humidity increases and amplifies HR chances.
56. Kris Bubic – Bubic looked strong against the Brewers, though the team is roughly average and Bubic’s secondaries were a bit lacking. The slider and sweeper were far too hittable against LHB, while the changeup is still inconsistent as an out pitch to RHB. The four-seamer’s flat HAVAA with legit iVB is an awesome pair from the left side at 93 mph, though, and I’m in.
57. Max Meyer – Meyer was good! But not stupid good. The slider velocity was at 92 mph (not 88) and everything else was better, but still not great. It means he’s solid but not on the path to become an AGA until something else overwhelms inside the arsenal.
58. Richard Fitts – Fitts’ pitches looked far worse than we saw in the spring and I’m waiting until we see another start before I push him back further. We’re talking 2-3″ less vert, almost two ticks lower velocity, less extension, etc. The slider wasn’t nearly as vicious, too. I sure hope something was off, even if the result was a PQS with a 1.00 WHIP.
59. Shane Baz – We haven’t seen him yet and you can likely expect some change here next week. Good luck Baz, we’re all counting on you.
Tier 9 – At The Edge Of The Cliff
Now that we’re past the “hey, this is legit value I’m unlikely to drop this season”, it’s time to shift to pure upside. It’s why these rankings are more aggressive than projections or likely other rankings you’ve seen elsewhere. It’s a 12-teamer and you should be embracing the burn-and-churn of your starting pitchers.
60. Jesús Luzardo – The strikeouts are awesome with a new sweeper to pair with the slider, though we know who he is. I don’t think that pitch changes a whole lot, though, and be ready for the disaster.
61. Taj Bradley – Huge props to Bradley for nailing the cutter mostly down-and-away for his first outing and boy do I hope that’s what we can expect with regularity.
62. Jack Leiter – I dug the full arsenal of Jack Zippo, though I expect we’re going to see growing pains across April as he works out the kinks. I think you’re best holding through the gauntlet. Brace yourself for the onslaught and you’ll be rewarded with the oasis.
63. Reynaldo López – The velocity returned to last year’s mark after a terrifying spring, but the man cannot throw his slider or curve for strikes. It scares me plenty and with so many interesting options out there, I’d rather not.
64. Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi had an overall decent start against the White Sox, but his arsenal was not on point. I’m concerned he’ll flounder and the Angels coaching staff will do little to help him get back on track.
65. Casey Mize – He hasn’t pitched yet and I hope he makes me push him into Tier 8 instead of Tier 10. Please show us a good slider.
66. Landen Roupp – Roupp has had an incredible spring and I’m hoping he pulls it off on Tuesday night. He’s a good spec add before this outing.
67. Tylor Megill – Megill was Tylord in his first outing, featuring a new gyro slider he actually located and merged it with great sinkers and a high heater. It was the best version of Megill and I just want him to replicate it. PLEASE REPLICATE IT.
Tier 10 – Fine, You Need Some Innings
Sneaky starters who could find you some wins or quality starts but shouldn’t be held with adoration in your 12-teamers. Ayyyy, the Toby tier!
68. Jordan Hicks – I’m expecting Hicks to sit 96/97 mph as he did in his final two spring starts. That itself should warrant a hold for your squads.
69. Kevin Gausman – The splitter returned just two whiffs and that’s a huge problem. I’d feel awfully anxious rostering Gausman and wouldn’t know when to cut the cord.
70. Zach Eflin – He got through the first one, but let’s be honest. This is a decent ratio/Win play. AND THAT’S OKAY.
71. David Peterson – I’m excited for Peterson to make his first start against the Marlins. That should go swimingly with his seven feet of extension.
72. Nick Martinez – Martinez didn’t throw many changeups (sub 15%?!) and he’s a solid nibbler with a wide arsenal.
73. Matthew Boyd – Boyd didn’t have his best slider and changeup and I expect he’ll find himself in a comfortable groove soon.
74. José Soriano – The sinker and curve worked as we wanted them to, even if the sinker wasn’t inside to RHB as it should have been. Sadly, the slider isn’t much of anything, though.
75. Merrill Kelly – He’s going to win the Spider-Man this year. I can sense it.
76. Chris Bassitt – Bassitt looked better than all of spring and will likely settle in closer to the 2023 version, not his ghastly 1.46 WHIP self from 2024.
77. Ronel Blanco – We haven’t seen him yet, but I’m realizing Blanco is likely a step above Tier 12 arms for his Win chance at the very least. Give it a shot.
78. Justin Verlander – Verlander has a different slider and harder curve while maintaining 94 mph. This could work as a Toby.
79. Brady Singer – I’m waiting to see if the four-seamer is actually part of the gameplan or not.
Tier 11 – The Desperate Dart Throws
I’m skeptical of all these arms, but some legitimate elements of each could blossom early in the year.
80. AJ Smith-Shawver – I debated throwing AJSS higher up the ranks just based on the Miami matchup and the shockingly good pitch shapes. Thing is, I heavily question his command. You may just want to avoid this entirely.
81. Sean Burke – Burke was at 94 mph, not 96 mph, and didn’t get whiffs on his breakers as he did in the fall of last year. I hope it gets better.
82. Kumar Rocker – We’re waiting to see his season debut and I’m a little afraid of his lean away from sliders in favor of curveballs + his inability to locate against LHB.
83. Hayden Wesneski – My closest comp to Wesneski is Brandon Pfaadt and I hate that. At least he has the benefit of pitching for Houston.
84. Tyler Mahle – I dug the velocity at 93 mph for Mahle and his 60+ pitch outing under two frames was just a bad day at the park. He’ll earn more four-seamer strikes next time out and we’ll get a better sense of what he can do. That said, I believe I was over-valuing his potential ceiling in the pre-season.
85. Bowden Francis – We haven’t seen him yet and I’m still heavily doubting he can be a consistent producer you refuse to drop.
86. Shane Smith – The Win chance is low and I’m wondering if I’m missing something with his secondaries. He throws 96+ mph, though, and let’s see what he’s got against the Twins.
Tier 12 – Fine, You Need More Innings
These guys are a step down from the Tobys in Tier 10 but sure, I get why they’re rostered.
87. Michael Wacha – Wacha’s four-seamer didn’t do its part over the weekend. He’s the same guy.
88. Mitch Keller – Sure Keller, you took down the Marlins without a significant whiff pitch. Yay.
89. Brandon Pfaadt – I’m not a believer, I’m sorry y’all. It’s possible the curveball is the answer against LHB with 3/9 whiffs, but that’s not enough to get me on board.
90. Luis Severino – Severino was…okay in Seattle. I’m not encouraged you really need to roster him.
91. José Berríos – You saw how he undulates. You just can’t plan for how he performs and IT’S NOT WORTH IT Y’ALL.
92. Tanner Houck – He looked terrible. The slider lost movement and the splitter didn’t miss bats. I’m worried.
93. Nestor Cortes – Uhhhh, you already know how poorly this went. I’d say see how the next one goes and keep an open mind. Even at diminished velocity? Well, that has to change. Obviously.
94. Chris Paddack – Yeah, that was terrible today. It doesn’t mean he’s absolutely cooked n all, but boy, that was terrible. And fine, maybe it does mean he’s cooked n all. I dunno, I’m not going after it but I can also acknowledge that a pitcher isn’t defined by one start. Usually.
Tier 13 – Streamers and WannabeTobys
I like their matchups and they could be productive for a week before we let them go back to the wire.
95. Simeon Woods Richardson – He’ll get the White Sox and it won’t be as bad as it was with Paddack, right?
96. Walker Buehler – This was a really bad start. I say it all the time – be ready to make quick decisions. I made mine on Buehler after seeing 93 mph with no discernable ability to execute a gameplan. It’s possible he’s different next time out, but he has a long way to go.
97. Tyler Anderson – Sure, the changeup could work against the Cardinals.
98. Eduardo Rodriguez – Ehhhh, 50% changeups to RHB is cool and having a defense behind him helps.
99. JP Sears – Sears did well in the Anti-Coors of Seattle and now heads to the I’m-Actually-Coors of Denver.
100. Osvaldo Bido – He’s also getting Coors. Oof.
Honorable Mentions
Here is every pitcher who is not on The List and currently has a rotation spot. If I’m missing someone, it’s likely because I removed them from The List last week and forgot to add them here, or I meant to add them to The List and I got crossed up somewhere. Let me know if I’m missing someone, please!
Cade Povich (BAL) – I don’t see a high enough ceiling to chase him in drafts, even for the first week. He can turn into a 12-teamer Toby, but for now, I’d rather take a better first matchup and go from there.
Charlie Morton (BAL) – He’s not a streamer I want to rely on.
Dean Kremer (BAL) – He just earned ten strikeouts in the spring, but you can’t bank on it on a given day. Far too risky.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) – I’m not seeing enough from Sugano thus far to trust he can be the Toby we want him to be.
Kyle Gibson (BAL) – He’ll show up around the end of April once stretched out. Not that you’ll want to roster him when that time comes, of course.
Sean Newcomb (BOS) – Wow, he actually did it. No, I don’t expect this to go his way against the Orioles.
Marcus Stroman (NYY) – He got his wish and is the SP #3 if you can believe it. He’ll go, what, 4.2 IP?
Carlos Carrasco (NYY) – Cookie, what a time to be alive. Good luck fella, at least you still get whiffs on both your slider and changeup, right?
Will Warren (NYY) – Yeaaaah, he’s the SP #5 and not looking super polished, while it’ll be the Diamondbacks for his first matchup. That’s not enough for me to grab him.
Zack Littell (TBR) – He’s in the rotation with McClanahan’s injury, but that doesn’t mean you should roster him.
Martín Pérez (CWS) – This is so boring…but he may be a streamer if the velocity comes back up and he displays a rhythm against poor squads.
Jonathan Cannon (CWS) – This has moments of being cool and then failing to locate the very next inning.
Davis Martin (CWS) – The kick change! It’s a thing! And not as elite as the name makes it sound!
Ben Lively (CLE) – You know, Lively ain’t that bad ya’ll. I just don’t want to start him against the Padres.
Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) – Ortiz has looked rough this spring.
Logan Allen (CLE) – You made the rotation?! Really?!
Triston McKenzie (CLE) – And you’re in the pen?! WELP.
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) – Oh right, Lorenzen. You’re making a Grave Mistake without the ratios you want on most nights.
Kyle Hendricks (LAA) – He’s had a decent spring, believe it or not. I’m happy for him and hope it lasts. It likely won’t.
Reid Detmers (LAA) – Detmers has officially lost his rotation spot and will be pitching out of the pen. Rough.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) – The Jack of One Trade has won the final rotation spot over Detmers. Sadly, you likely won’t have your bread buttered if you roll with Kochanowicz. After all, it’s spelt with one K.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – I don’t have Kershaw in the IL table because I personally don’t see a case where you’re dropping someone to activate Kershaw in his first (or second) start back from the IL in 12-teamers. He’s not that guy anymore, y’all.
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) – I guess he’s a better injury stash than Kershaw, but the same rule applies.
Joey Estes (ATH) – He beat Spence and holds a rotation spot because he can locate. Sadly, the stuff is located on the far left side of the scale. Ayyyy.
Mitch Spence (ATH) – They put him in the bullpen. I. KNOW.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) – Hurt and we’ll see how he looks when he returns.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – The Mariners need a fifth starter with Kirby out and it’s apparently Hancock, with his middling sinker/slider/change approach. Don’t do this save for your super deep AL-Only leagues.
Logan Evans (SEA) – It isn’t 100% confirmed to be Hancock and still could be Evans, though I don’t see why the Mariners would start Evans’ clock as he’s awfully similar to Hancock. The benefit just isn’t there.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) – He’s getting the second game of the year for the Marlins. Yup. It’s possible the splitter is cooking…?
Connor Gillispie (MIA) – WHO?! I know. Don’t worry about it.
Valente Bellozo (MIA) – He sits around 90 mph and has a cutter he has to earn called strikes with. That’s about it.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) – Hurt and we’ll see how he looks when he returns.
Tyler Phillips (MIA) – He was on the Phils and is not a guy to chase.
Chad Patrick (MIL) – You don’t even know who he is.
Elvin Rodríguez (MIL) – We saw him on Monday. He has glimpses of being great. Glimpses.
Tyler Alexander (MIL) – T-Lex could show up for five solid outings, but that’s not what you want to chase.
Griffin Canning (NYM) – Do you really want to jump on board with Canning? He’ll get the Astros first and his change/slider are still as hittable as always. He’s the same pitcher from 2024, you know, the guy with the third-worst qualified ERA in baseball.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) – Suárez is out for a few starts with a barking back. The Phillies have nothing but Walker to find some innings. Good luck.
Jake Irvin (WSN) – Hey, this isn’t the worst thing ever if his curve is doing work. We saw it last year, after all. Sadly, he’ll get the Phillies and that’s a clear avoid.
Mitchell Parker (WSN) – Maybe Parker’s slider is ready to attack RHB? Maybe?!
Trevor Williams (WSN) – #NeverTrevor
Michael Soroka (WSN) – There’s a chance Soroka pulls it off with four-seamers and sliders, but he was bad in his last spring outing and he’s not a ceiling arm. He’s a 15-teamer Toby at best. He’ll get the Jays first and I’m not interested.
DJ Herz (WSN) – He’s in Triple-A y’all.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) – He’ll get the Diamondbacks and that’s not the matchup we want Taillon for.
Ben Brown (CHC) – Is he the fifth starter? Without a third pitch, I wouldn’t grab him regardless.
Colin Rea (CHC) – Rea could be the fifth starter over Brown and is a desperate streamer when facing a poor offense. The Sneks are not a poor offense.
Rhett Lowder (CIN) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Carson Spiers (CIN) – Maybe Spiers can dot the edges against the Rangers next week? It’s super boring and at home. No thanks.
DL Hall (MIL) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Aaron Ashby (MIL) – Hurt and we’ll take a look when he returns.
Jose Quintana (MIL) – He’s not stretched out yet and will likely have someone like Tyler Alexander to follow him. It’s not good.
Aaron Civale (MIL) – Civale has had depressed velocity and has to deal with the Yankees in the Bronx. Ooof.
Bailey Falter (PIT) – He’ll get the Marlins and this could actually work if his sinker is getting the stupid amount of run he’s flirted with. JUST SAYING.
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) – Wait, seriously?! After all of that, it’s Mldozinski?! UGH.
Andrew Heaney (PIT) – Nothing exciting in his first start and it’s the Yankees next.
Michael McGreevy (STL) – We thought the Cardinals would go with McGreevy in the rotation. Guess not.
Steven Matz (STL) – Matz is in the bullpen now. It’s weird, I know.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) – No, I did not expect Liberatore to earn the fifth spot in the rotation. Sadly, he doesn’t have a strong changeup and I’m not seeing a different southpaw from previous years, with his velocity holding just under 95 mph thus far. I’ll wait and see.
Erick Fedde (STL) – Maybe Fedde is worthwhile as a streamer in a 15-teamer, but not in a 12-teamer against the Twins. At least he’s not throwing four-seamers now.
Miles Mikolas (STL) – His four-seamer was one of the worst pitches in baseball last year and is now two ticks slower.
Germán Márquez (COL) – COL
Ryan Feltner (COL) – Story
Kyle Freeland (COL) – Broooo
Antonio Senzatela (COL) – oooooo
Bradley Blalock (COL) – ahhhhh. COL Story, broaaah? You get the point.
Chase Dollander (COL) – Even if he gets the call soonish, Coors is undefeated. He’s not polished yet, either. I’d sit this one out.
Stephen Kolek (SDP) – He’s a command guy without much stuff. The ceiling is too low.
Kyle Hart (SDP) – He’s not stretched out in full and I want to see him dominate with both sweepers and changeups before I can trust him to be a reliable Win-focused “TOBY”
Hayden Birdsong (SFG) – Birdsong will be pitching out of the bullpen and is dealing with a fingernail issue that he’s fixed with a fake nail. ANYWAY, it’s Roupp and you shouldn’t hold onto Birdsong.
Kyle Harrison (SFG) – He’s in Triple-A now and lost plenty of weight dealing with a virus. It’s going around, y’all.
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarik SkubalT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Paul Skenes | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 4 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 5 | Jacob deGrom | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 6 | Cole Ragans | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 7 | Logan Gilbert | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 8 | Corbin BurnesT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 9 | Max Fried | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 10 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 11 | Dylan Cease | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 12 | Michael King | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 13 | Joe Ryan | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 14 | Chris Sale | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 15 | Blake Snell | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 16 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 17 | Spencer SchwellenbachT3 | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | - |
| 18 | Pablo López | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 19 | Tanner Bibee | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 20 | Shota Imanaga | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 21 | Justin Steele | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 22 | Robbie Ray | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
| 23 | Logan Webb | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 24 | Bryce Miller | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | - |
| 25 | Framber Valdez | Ace Potential Quality Starts | - |
| 26 | Hunter GreeneT4 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 27 | Sandy Alcantara | Ace Potential Ratio Focused | - |
| 28 | Bryan Woo | Ace Potential Ratio Focused Injury Risk | - |
| 29 | Ryan Pepiot | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
| 30 | Luis CastilloT5 | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 31 | Aaron Nola | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 32 | Jack Flaherty | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 33 | Carlos Rodón | Holly Wins Bonus | - |
| 34 | Freddy Peralta | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 35 | Bailey Ober | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 36 | Kodai Senga | Holly Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 37 | Cristopher SánchezT6 | Holly Wins Bonus | - |
| 38 | Sonny Gray | Holly Strikeout Upside | - |
| 39 | Hunter Brown | Holly Wins Bonus | - |
| 40 | Zac Gallen | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 41 | Seth Lugo | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 42 | Jackson JobeT7 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 43 | Drew Rasmussen | Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused | - |
| 44 | MacKenzie Gore | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +21 |
| 45 | Gavin Williams | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts Injury Risk | -1 |
| 46 | Grant Holmes | Cherry Bomb Wins Bonus | -1 |
| 47 | Roki Sasaki | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 48 | Spencer Arrighetti | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 49 | Nathan EovaldiT8 | Holly Wins Bonus | +8 |
| 50 | Jeffrey Springs | Holly Quality Starts | +8 |
| 51 | Nick Lodolo | Holly Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +3 |
| 52 | Dustin May | Holly Ratio Focused | -4 |
| 53 | Clay Holmes | Holly Quality Starts | -7 |
| 54 | Reese Olson | Holly Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 55 | Nick Pivetta | Holly Strikeout Upside | - |
| 56 | Kris Bubic | Holly Strikeout Upside | +30 |
| 57 | Max Meyer | Holly Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 58 | Richard Fitts | Holly Wins Bonus Ratio Focused | -9 |
| 59 | Shane Baz | Holly Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 60 | Jesús LuzardoT9 | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 61 | Taj Bradley | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 62 | Jack Leiter | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 63 | Reynaldo López | Hipster Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +5 |
| 64 | Yusei Kikuchi | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -13 |
| 65 | Casey Mize | Hipster Streaming Option Quality Starts | -5 |
| 66 | Landen Roupp | Hipster Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 67 | Tylor Megill | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +22 |
| 68 | Jordan HicksT10 | Toby Ratio Focused | -7 |
| 69 | Kevin Gausman | Toby Quality Starts | -10 |
| 70 | Zach Eflin | Toby Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 71 | David Peterson | Toby Wins Bonus | +2 |
| 72 | Nick Martinez | Toby Ratio Focused | +2 |
| 73 | Matthew Boyd | Toby Quality Starts | +3 |
| 74 | José Soriano | Toby Quality Starts | +7 |
| 75 | Merrill Kelly | Toby Quality Starts | +2 |
| 76 | Chris Bassitt | Toby Rotation Spot Bonus | +18 |
| 77 | Ronel Blanco | Toby Wins Bonus | +13 |
| 78 | Justin Verlander | Toby Quality Starts | +13 |
| 79 | Brady Singer | Toby Quality Starts | -1 |
| 80 | AJ Smith-ShawverT11 | Hipster Team Context Effect | +20 |
| 81 | Sean Burke | Hipster Team Context Effect | +4 |
| 82 | Kumar Rocker | Hipster Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 83 | Hayden Wesneski | Hipster Team Context Effect | +5 |
| 84 | Tyler Mahle | Hipster Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -15 |
| 85 | Bowden Francis | Hipster Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus | +8 |
| 86 | Shane Smith | Hipster Rotation Spot Bonus | +UR |
| 87 | Michael WachaT12 | Toby Quality Starts | -8 |
| 88 | Mitch Keller | Hipster Quality Starts | +4 |
| 89 | Brandon Pfaadt | Toby Quality Starts | -6 |
| 90 | Luis Severino | Toby Quality Starts | -10 |
| 91 | José Berríos | Toby Wins Bonus | -9 |
| 92 | Tanner Houck | Toby Wins Bonus | -20 |
| 93 | Nestor Cortes | Toby Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -18 |
| 94 | Chris Paddack | Hipster Quality Starts | -10 |
| 95 | Simeon Woods RichardsonT13 | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 96 | Walker Buehler | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | -34 |
| 97 | Tyler Anderson | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -2 |
| 98 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +1 |
| 99 | JP Sears | Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus | -3 |
| 100 | Osvaldo Bido | Streaming Option Rotation Spot Bonus | -2 |
Labels Legend
Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Pallante?
Kinda surprsied to see Zebby or Festa not listed as “stash” guys. Both have decent upside and should move into the rotation soon enough. Have thoughts on those guys? I doubt Paddock holds them off for long…
Any chance you could add hover-information to the Labels Legend for us newbies to the PL site? Eg: I can’t figure out exactly what a Cherry Bomb is from this article.. and would love to know!
Already moving Bowden Francis up 8 spots. That has to be embarrassing for you.
why do you like Grant Holmes so much more than the braves do?