Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- Just like last week, the big question revolves around when Logan Gilbert will return to Seattle. He made another rehab start on Tuesday, allowing just one hit and one walk while throwing 72 pitches, and he followed that up with a bullpen session in Seattle on Friday. As long as he makes it through that well, his next start should be in the big leagues. He could tentatively return as early as Monday vs. the Red Sox, which would set him up for a second potential start vs. the Cubs. There’s always a bit of risk starting a pitcher in their return from injury, but Gilbert is a slam-dunk must-start when healthy.
- The Yankees are apparently Kris Bubic’s kryptonite. He’s allowed three earned runs or more on just three occasions this season, and two of them have been vs. New York. Fortunately, the Yankees aren’t on the docket for Bubic next week, with the Rangers and Padres on the schedule instead. While neither is a truly elite matchup, they’re not scary enough to take Bubic out of your lineup. He still owns a sub-2.00 ERA this season while striking out more than a batter per inning.
- Robbie Ray moved all the way up to No. 11 in the Pitcher List Rankings this week, and he continues to absolutely shove. He wasn’t at his best in Coors Field in his last outing, but he still owns a 1.89 ERA and 1.74 FIP over his past nine outings, and he’s tallied 67 strikeouts in those 57.0 innings. Ray has been even better in San Francisco this season, and both of his projected starts will take place at home.
- Dylan Cease has not had his typically productive season, but he remains one of the top strikeout arms in all of baseball. He’s also coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, racking up 11 strikeouts across seven scoreless innings vs. a potent Dodgers’ lineup. He should continue to trend in the right direction.
- This is an aggressive ranking for Andrew Abbott, but how can you possibly bench him at this point? He owns a 1.87 ERA with six wins through his first 11 starts, and he’s combining solid strikeout metrics with excellent batted-ball data. He also draws two solid matchups vs. the Twins and at the Cardinals, so there’s no reason not to keep riding him.
Most Likely
- The Yankees have two projected multi-start pitchers for the upcoming week, and both find themselves in this tier: Will Warren and Clarke Schmidt. Warren’s 4.86 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but his 3.76 xERA is significantly better. He’s also been racking up strikeouts at an excellent rate, ranking in the 85th percentile. He pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in his last outing, and he could’ve potentially gone longer if not for a rain delay. Schmidt doesn’t provide the same type of strikeout upside, but he’s been more effective at keeping runs off the scoreboard. He owns a 3.60 ERA and 2.95 xERA, and he surrendered just two hits across six scoreless innings in his last outing. Both guys were around No. 40 in the Pitcher List Rankings this week, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them move up further.
- It’s hard to beat Lucas Giolito’s upcoming schedule. He’s tentatively scheduled for two starts in pitcher-friendly venues in Seattle and San Francisco, and neither of those offenses is particularly imposing, either. Giolito has been significantly better when pitching outside of Boston this season — 2.60 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 7.79 K/9 — so he’s a lot easier to trust than usual. It’s enough to earn him the Streamer of the Week designation.
- Ryan Pepiot hasn’t fully ascended to the level of “must-start” pitcher, but he’s been an extremely consistent arm this season. He’s allowed more than three earned runs in just one outing, and that came all the way back on April 15. He’s also had at least eight punchouts in back-to-back starts, so he’s displayed a bit more upside of late.
- Casey Mize hadn’t looked like the same pitcher since returning from the IL, but he’s coming off a promising outing vs. the Orioles. He racked up seven strikeouts across 5.1 innings, and he surrendered just two hits. Baltimore still ranks seventh in wRC+ vs. righties, so it wasn’t a cupcake matchup, either. For the year, Mize’s ERA is still below three, so there’s no reason to bench him at this point.
- David Peterson has a pretty brutal upcoming schedule, with expected starts next week vs. the Braves and Phillies. There’s definitely some risk in those spots, but Peterson has simply been too good not to start. He’s yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start this season, and he’s coming off a complete-game shutout in his last outing. His stuff plays up thanks to his elite extension, while his groundball rate puts him in the 94th percentile.
- Jesús Luzardo had a brutal two-start stretch, surrendering 12 runs vs. the Brewers and eight runs vs. the Blue Jays at the end of May and beginning of June. That pushed his ERA all the way out to 4.46 for the year. However, he managed to right the ship in his last start, racking up 10 strikeouts with just one earned run allowed vs. a tough Cubs lineup. There’s certainly no reason to bench him vs. the Marlins, and he can be used against the Mets as well.
- Matthew Liberatore has been excellent for most of the year, but he’s hit a couple of snags recently. He’s allowed 16 earned runs across his past three starts, so it’s possible that his time has passed. That said, his upcoming schedule is good enough to give him the benefit of the doubt. He gets matchups vs. the White Sox and at home vs. the Reds, both of which grade out as well above average. If he can’t provide value in those spots, then it’s time to re-evaluate.
Questionable
- This is the biggest tier of the week, featuring a handful of pitchers that can potentially be streamed for one outing. No duo fits that description better than Jake Irvin and Michael Soroka for the Nationals. Both players are prime stream targets for home starts vs. the Rockies, but you’re absolutely crazy if you start either vs. the Dodgers.
- Zach Eflin had one dreadful start this season, but other than that, he’s been very reliable. He routinely goes 6+ innings, including in each of his past three outings. There’s some blowup potential vs. the Yankees, but he’s a viable option in a “revenge game” vs. the Rays.
- Chris Bassitt continues to do Bassitt things. He’s very rarely going to blow you away, but his 3.58 xERA and 22.5% strikeout rate both grade out as above-average marks. They’re certainly good enough to use vs. the White Sox, though he’s significantly riskier vs. the Diamondbacks.
- The jury is still out on Slade Cecconi. Some of his advanced metrics are terrifying — his 5.90 xERA puts him in the fourth percentile — but he’s had four quality starts in his first five outings. That includes two eight-strikeout performances. Using him on the road vs. the Athletics feels a bit thin, but playing him in San Francisco vs. the Giants is reasonable.
- Lance McCullers Jr. is the definition of a “questionable” start. The strikeout numbers have been awesome since returning to the rotation, but the run prevention has left a lot to be desired. He’s another pitcher to consider benching in Sutter Health Park — the No. 2 stadium for hitters via Statcast Park Factors — but the upside vs. the Angels is undeniable. They have the highest strikeout rate in the league vs. right-handers this season.
- José Soriano is one of the best ground-ball pitchers in baseball, ranking in the 99th percentile in that department. He also showcased some improved strikeout stuff in his last start, generating 12 punchouts vs. the Athletics. If he can add a few more swings-and-misses to his game consistently, he’d be a solid fantasy arm. Using him vs. the Yankees isn’t particularly exciting, but he can be streamed vs. the Astros.
- The Grant Holmes breakout has not happened this season, though he did have nine strikeouts in his last outing. The Marlins have been slightly improved against right-handers of late, but they’re still merely 24th in wRC+ in that split this season. Holmes is good enough to start in that spot.
- Sandy Alcantara is a giant shrug emoji at this point. Before getting injured, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. This year, he’s been one of the worst. He showed some signs of improvement in his past two starts, but those have come at home against the Rockies and on the road vs. the Pirates. You don’t get a ton of credit for shutting them down. The difficulty will ratchet up significantly for matchups vs. the Phillies and Braves, so it’s possible he turns back into a pumpkin.
- Mick Abel was dominant in his first MLB start, but he’s been much more mediocre in his last two. His ERA still sits at an elite 2.35 for the year, but his xERA is over 5.00. That means he’s a bit riskier than you might initially think. He’s certainly still usable against the Marlins, but there’s plenty of downside vs. the Mets.
- Chad Patrick gave up more than three earned runs for the first time all season in his last outing. Nothing that he does really jumps off the page, but he’s generally been able to get outs. The matchup vs. the Cubs is daunting, but the Twins aren’t nearly as intimidating.
- Bailey Falter has pretty quietly been a stud since the beginning of May. He’s 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA over his past eight starts, though it’s hard to see that sustaining. His FIP is roughly two runs higher over that time frame, and he remains a dreadful strikeout pitcher. You don’t necessarily need to be an elite strikeout arm to post solid results, but it certainly makes things a lot easier. The Tigers have been No. 2 in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season, but the Rangers are all the way down at No. 25. He can potentially be used in that spot.
- Avoiding the Rockies’ starters is totally viable. Even when they’re on the road, they still provide very little in terms of win expectancy. That said, Kyle Freeland has some appeal against the Nationals in Washington. They’re 22nd in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season, and Freeland has a 3.64 ERA when pitching on the road.
- Is Justin Wrobleski an MLB-quality starter at this point? That remains to be seen. His numbers don’t look the part, and he’s allowed 12 earned runs in his two starts. However, he pitches for the Dodgers, so if he can make it through five innings vs. the Nationals, he’ll have a good chance to pick up the win. That’s enough to put him into streamer territory.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
