Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- This tier features some of the best pitchers in fantasy, including two “Tier One” starters in the Pitcher List Rankings: Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom. They can be started against any opponent with confidence. Wheeler’s projected schedule is a bit daunting, but there’s simply no way you’re taking him out of your lineup.
- Bryan Woo, Hunter Brown, and Carlos Rodón are all just outside the top tier for fantasy purposes, checking as Tier Two options. They’re also not coming out of your lineups.
- Kodai Senga is the biggest “reach” here, landing in Tier Four in the Pitcher List Rankings. His underlying metrics don’t stand out as elite, but there’s no denying his production when he’s been on the mound this season: 1.39 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 77.1 innings. If he had enough innings to qualify, he would be the league-leader in ERA by a pretty comfortable margin. He’ll have to navigate a tough matchup versus an undervalued Angels’ offense to start the week, but he closes things out in a favorable spot versus the Giants in Oracle Park.
Most Likely
- George Kirby is technically ranked ahead of Senga in the Pitcher List Rankings, but he doesn’t have nearly the same level of results this season. The good news is that he’s trending in the right direction. He’s allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his past four starts, and he has a game with nine strikeouts in that stretch. His xERA for the year is nearly a full run lower than his actual mark, so he’s a solid candidate to keep the positive regression going. The Brewers and Angels have both been solid of late, with each ranking in the top 11 in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 30 days, but Kirby will at least get the benefit of facing the Brewers in Seattle.
- Eury Pérez is so good. He’s now made seven starts this season after missing the early part of the year, and he’s posted a sparkling 2.37 xERA in those contests. His results of late have been ridiculously good, pitching to a 0.50 ERA with 21 strikeouts over his last three starts. He could be a “set and forget” arm in the very near future, and he can hopefully keep the good times rolling vs. the Padres and Brewers.
- You can’t feel comfortable locking Zac Gallen into your lineup at this point. He has not looked remotely like the same pitcher as in years past, struggling to a 5.40 ERA and 4.86 xERA across 20 starts. That said, if you’re not starting him against the Astros and Pirates, is he even worth having on your rosters? Houston is 17th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, while Pittsburgh is all the way down at No. 28. Gallen has also started to show signs of life of late, pitching to a 2.75 FIP with 22 strikeouts across his past three outings.
- Shane Baz has been pretty reliable of late. He’s pitched to a 2.75 ERA over his past six outings, and he’s gone at least six innings in five of them. He’s also averaged better than a strikeout per inning over that stretch. His matchup versus the White Sox is an absolute slam dunk, and while pitching in the Great American Ball Park is never easy, the Reds aren’t particularly imposing either.
- Zach Eflin appears slated to make his return early next week. The timing could not be better. If he starts on Monday or Tuesday versus the Guardians, it sets him up to make a second start at home vs. the Rockies over the weekend. It’s hard to get a much better schedule for fantasy purposes, making Eflin the clear choice for “Streamer of the Week.” If he’s available in your leagues, go out and get him.
Questionable
- This is the largest tier of the week by a large margin, featuring a handful of pitchers with the potential to be used in at least one matchup. Tomoyuki Sugano benefits from the same potential schedule as Eflin; he just hasn’t been a very good pitcher of late. He’s allowed at least three earned runs in six straight starts, and he provides almost no strikeout upside. Still, anyone facing the Rockies outside of Coors Field has to at least be considered.
- Richard Fitts is someone the Pitcher List staff has been pretty high on, and he currently checks in at No. 59 in the Pitcher List Rankings. His velocity has been up since returning from the IL, and he’s turned in a 3.55 ERA with better than a strikeout per inning in his past three starts. Unfortunately, he’s going to have to navigate a bear of a schedule this week, with matchups vs. the Phillies and Dodgers. Avoiding him in those outings is completely reasonable, but he still has some long-term viability for fantasy.
- Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer are both tentatively scheduled for multiple starts for the Blue Jays. Both of their matchups are difficult—vs. the Yankees and at the Tigers—so they’re far from must-starts. However, both players at least have some upside. Gausman can pile up the strikeouts when he’s on, while Scherzer has at least seven strikeouts in two of his past three outings. Of course, both players also have some blowup potential, so benching both is certainly an option.
- Tanner Bibee has taken a clear step back in 2025, especially from a strikeout perspective. He posted a 9.69 K/9 in 2024, but he’s down to just 7.84 this season. However, he’s also been a bit unlucky. His 3.63 xERA still grades out as above-average, and his batted-ball metrics are solid. His two matchups are a bit of a mixed bag. The Royals can’t hit but have the third-lowest strikeout rate versus right-handers, while the Orioles are more dangerous but far more strikeout-prone.
- Joey Cantillo is also tentatively projected for two starts for the Guardians, and he has some intriguing metrics. He ranks in the 98th percentile for extension, and he’s racked up 18 strikeouts across 12.1 innings in his three starts. He should be locked into a rotation spot with Luis L. Ortiz sidelined indefinitely, making him an interesting fantasy arm.
- Casey Mize was an All-Star this season, but he is far from a slam-dunk fantasy ace. His strikeout numbers are pretty pedestrian, and the Mariners roughed him up in his final outing before the All-Star break. He’s a clear must-start versus the Pirates, but he carries a bit of risk versus the scorching-hot Blue Jays.
- Jacob Lopez has been a pleasant surprise for the Athletics this season. He’s transitioned nicely to the rotation after starting the year in the bullpen, posting a 3.93 FIP and 10.53 K/9 in his 10 starts. He’ll get to escape the Athletics‘ small home ballpark for two road starts against the Rangers and Astros, and neither offense has been particularly imposing this season.
- Colton Gordon started out strong for the Astros, but he’s come back to reality over his past few outings. He allowed nine earned runs over his past two starts, bringing his ERA to 4.67 for the year. That makes him a risky proposition, but he has some upside for his home start vs. the Athletics. They’re merely 29th in wRC+ when facing a southpaw on the road, and they have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in that split.
- Brady Singer is the definition of an average arm. He’s good for five or six innings with a handful of strikeouts and a couple of runs allowed in most starts. That said, even average arms have upside versus the Nationals, who are merely 24th in wRC+ versus right-handers.
- Mitch Keller is not as good as his traditional metrics suggest, but he’s typically pretty reliable. He’s posted a 1.96 ERA across his past six starts, and the Pirates are hoping he’ll keep it up to maximize his trade value before the deadline.
- Matthew Liberatore got off to an excellent start for the Cardinals this season, but he’s shown massive signs of regression of late. He pitched to an ERA above 5.00 in June, and he’s currently at 9.00 through two July starts. Maybe he can turn things around versus the Rockies, but he’s very difficult to trust in Coors Field.
- Landen Roupp has been as good as anyone of late. He’s pitched to a 1.37 ERA over his past five starts, and he had eight punchouts in six innings versus the Dodgers his last time out. The Braves and Mets aren’t particularly good matchups, but it’s hard to take him out of your lineup at the moment.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
