Way-Too-Early Top 100 Starting Pitcher Rankings For 2021

Our beloved and fleeting 60-game season has already ended and it’s time to look ahead to the (hopefully) full 162-game slate of 2021.

These rankings are going to be wildly different come February as injuries arise, rehab becomes clear, transactions are made, and – most importantly – I personally take the time to dive deeper into each of these players.

Don’t let that stop you from joining the discussion! Let’s start talking about the Top 100 starting pitchers for 2020, here with a focus on 12-team roto leagues.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• It’s Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, and Gerrit Cole. These three shouldn’t be in contention for the top tier as you know you’re going to get 200+ innings with elite strikeouts and ratios. It’s that simple.
• I really don’t have an issue with anyone changing the order here. They are all so dope. Did you know deGrom had a 21.6% SwStr this year? CRAZY.
• I stared at Tier 2 for ages. This is madness and I feel weird shrugging this much before we’ve left the Top 5. Yu Darvish is the clear winner here with 2019’s second half getting reinforced with his 2020 campaign.
• I imagine many are surprised at Trevor Bauer at #5, but the dude was simply incredible. All the other guys below? Not as incredible. We were treating 2018 as the outlier season, but maybe it’s 2019…
• Here I was saying that I would be lowering Max Scherzer relative to others and he’s #6. That’s what I get for not taking into account the actual SP Landscape! Even with his injury concerns, his ability is as proven as all the others and he can still muscle 200 frames, unlike Clayton Kershaw, who still hasn’t tossed 180 innings since 2015. Love that new velocity, though.
• I put out this Top 10 prematurely over the weekend and I feel bad to have shifted it after giving it more thought. Dinelson Lamet is out given the injury dings he’s going to get, Walker Buehler gets lowered given the Dodgers will likely baby him with blister issues (not to mention, his overall lack of consistency in each of the last two seasons), and Aaron Nola’s incredible curveball + changeup across 200 innings grant a comfortable #7 spot.
• There’s a bit of worry around Luis Castillo – y’all know I love him and I’m very familiar with his fastballs’ volatility. It speaks to a great strikeout rate, but a lower ceiling in ERA/WHIP department, pushing him close to #15.

 

• Tier 3 = the Risk tier. Justin Dunn Dunn Dunn…I figure Stephen Strasburg is the best of the lot, so he gets the first spot, with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow each being a bit risky since they don’t get the “workhorse” treatment on the Rays like their peers.
• And what is the deal with Mike Clevinger? This spot is going to likely change by March, but even if he’s “fully” healthy, he’s still in this tier with his injury history.

 

• I’ll stop disrespecting Hyun Jin Ryu now as he leads off Tier 4. I don’t expect the near 30% strikeout rate, but he’s the floor guy for your full season. Zack Wheeler has a touch of that with strikeout upside, but he’s not higher given the question of if he’ll ever unlock that potential.
• Corbin Burnes in down at #27 since his fastball command isn’t as good as the bottom line suggests and I know I’m going to get comments about Max Fried at #29, but he doesn’t have the same strikeout ability while his command isn’t elite. He’s solid, not top of the line.
• There’s also Corey Kluber who tossed one inning and called it a season. I hope he’s back and healthy, which could make him the steal of drafts, and I had to bake in the chance he misses significant time. Again.

 

• Tier 5 is a stressful tier. It has a ton of fun names, but they all come with haze that often sits inside the 30s. Will they transition into proper studs or will they fall quickly and be a late April drop? I sat for a while about Chris Paddack and at the end of the day, if I had to bet on his fastball returning to 2019 form or continuing to disappoint like this year, I’d wager a full off-season gets the pitch back on track.
• I’m also excited about the return of Jameson Taillon. I wrestled with where to place him and it may be too high, though with almost two years to recover, I imagine he’ll be a strong arm early. He fell to the end of the tier as I expect some innings cap, but I’d want to grab him everywhere.

 

• It’s hard to really back the Dylan Bundy train as it all seems so…chaotic. His fastball velocity dropped in his final start and his entire approach hinges on his slider missing tons of bats while his fastball doesn’t get clobbered (Yes, curveballs for strikes too and hoping his changeup is excellent is a plus). I’m not sure he’s quite solidified yet to pull it off for six months and you may be rostering a HIPSTER out of the gate.
• Frankie Montas was a challenge as well, but like Paddack, I’m willing to wash away a bit of this season in favor of a full recovery for 2021.

 

• Tier 6 is the super-duper fun tier where Nick grabs way too many in drafts and ultimately holds most for too long, destroying his season. But seriously, here’s where you’ll find the exciting names that could propel forward, while you won’t feel so bad throwing them back to the wire if they don’t work out. For example, I’m a big believer in John Means‘ new velocity, especially after pairing it with better changeup command in September, and he’ll likely be a target of mine in drafts come March.
• Ian Anderson is a safe pick in my book, with a solid repertoire that should speak to good ratios throughout the year. Think a Toby that could hold a 25% strikeout rate on a winning team. Sign me up.

 

• I wonder what the paths ahead are for Tony Gonsolin and Michael Kopech. If both are inserted into the rotation for a full year, they could provide Top 40 value, if not higher.
• I still don’t love Framber Valdez’s sinker, but I adore his curveball. It’s enough for me to put him inside the Top 55 and let’s hope he can stay hot again.
• Will Tyler Mahle be able to grab a consistent rotation spot in Cincinnati? His embrace of the BSB with an improved slider makes me a fan if he gets the frames.

 

• Now we have Tier 7 – The Solid Toby tier, lead by Chris Bassitt who held a 2.22 ERA this season. I don’t expect that to continue, but he should be a benefit to your squad through the year.
• I wasn’t sure if Mike Minor fit here and he may be moved to the 70s later on, but I think that really depends on where he lands. A good fit may outline a solid Toby for you.

 

• Tier 8 is the point where you may as well stash a possible ace. I don’t know now what the status of Mike Soroka or Chris Sale will be in February/March. I figured I might as well place them here and we’ll talk about it in 2021. Sound good? Good.
• I stuck MacKenzie Gore here as well as we’ll have a better idea of his involvement with the Padres come spring. Here’s to hoping he gets a rotation spot early.
• There’s also James Paxton and Eduardo Rodriguez here as well as I don’t know how their injuries will carry over yet into 2021.

 

• Tier 9 we have the late-round fliers that you may want to consider out of the gate for their upside, but it could really fall on its face. Jose Urquidy should be a solid bet but still may not provide a whole lot for you to chase. Mitch Keller was a hot topic entering this year and now with his injuries behind him, he should be an interesting play for next year.
• Marcus Stroman appears here as I have no idea where to put him. There was some excitement entering this year with his cutter improving in September 2019, but then injury struck, he opted out, and yeah. Really hard to gauge, so I put him after the stashes as he could a quick drop in April or take that step forward and repeat a solid ERA with decent strikeouts and WHIP.
• I really hope Spencer Turnbull cuts his sinker out of his repertoire for 2021. That would be super cool.
• Daniel Ponce de Leon surprised us with an electric finish to the season and his ability to throw curveballs for strikes could carry over to this year.

 

• Take Tier 9 and make me less confident, that’s Tier 10. We have your Cherry Bomb poster child in Michael Pineda, the pendulum nature of Matthew Boyd and Zach Eflin, who some days suddenly has a great curveball.
• Will Andrew Heaney ever get his changeup and curveball in order? I SURE HOPE SO.
• Dean Kremer and Tanner Houck are also here as interesting young options that we got a small taste of at the end of last year. I don’t think of them too highly, but they could develop further and make for solid plays.

 

• And lastly, there’s Tier 11, which houses streaming options to consider, or decent Tobys in deeper leagues. Yes, it hurt to put Sean Manaea down here, but he really hasn’t shaped into the sturdy arm we wanted.
• I know Zach Davies had a crazy good year with that changeup, but I just don’t buy that it’ll stick through all of 2021, let alone be there again in April. I hope so, but I just don’t buy it.

 

• Okay, I know I left off a lot of pitchers – it’s really hard to do just 100! – allow me to break down as many as I can think of and why I didn’t add them here.
  • Ross Stripling – Unclear role in Toronto + hasn’t had his curveball working for a bit.
  • Brendan McKay – Will he get a clear role to start? Will he be good?
  • Trevor Richards – Cool to see the BSB in full action late in the year, but it’s not enough.
  • Brent Honeywell – I have no idea how he’ll look or be ready to go in the spring and will the Rays even let him get a chance?
  • JA Happ – One of the last ones I removed. He’s a risk with his four-seamer elevating effectively in spurts. It’s hard to trust his September run.
  • Martin Perez – A Toby at best. Not for me.
  • Cole Hamels – Where will he end up? Will he be healthy enough to make an impact?
  • Jon Lester – Think Lester but worse.
  • Danny Duffy – Almost put him there out of respect, but in the end, he’s not a target for drafts.
  • Casey Mize – He looked rough at the end of the year and I wouldn’t have faith that he’ll have it together to make you confident for his first few starts.
  • Dylan Cease – The man had a 17.3% strikeout rate. SEVENTEEN POINT THREE PERCENT. That was supposed to be his good part.
  • Dane Dunning – I know many like him, but in the end he’s a super late flier. I don’t see a whole lot in his stuff that speaks to me feeling ultra-confident in him.
  • Carlos Rodon – Very tempting, I wonder how the White Sox will play it out in the spring. Always a volatile one, though, that Rodon.
  • Adam Wainwright – I know, I know, this year was bonkers. I just can’t buy that his curveball will be that good again
  • Adrian Houser – It was a disappointing season as his sinker wasn’t good enough to carry the lack of depth in his repertoire. Maybe it locks in along the way, but he’ll have to deal with “Camp Counseling” first and that’s a bummer.
  • Carlos Martinez – I really wanted to put him as 101, but in the end, I worry that Martinez just is too volatile to trust in 12-teamers. Unless he has elite velocity and works his slider/changeup well, I wouldn’t trust a hot start.
  • JT Brubaker – Had a few nice starts at the end of the year, but he’s capped with a good slider and sinker that can be BABIP’d. Decent streamer, that’s it.
  • Brad Keller – Velocity decreased and his breaking ball wasn’t what we wanted it to be.
  • Kris Bubic – Not a bad streamer, but still too raw to consider.
  • David Peterson – Nearly made it on The List, has interesting upside with that slider, but I’m curious if it can actually stick during a full year.
  • Elieser Hernandez – Great slider and nothing else. I wonder if he can put it together for a long stretch.
  • Justus Sheffield – He can certainly be a Toby, I wonder if he’ll get enough consistency with his changeup and slider + I’m not a fan of his sinker.
  • Taijuan Walker – There just isn’t enough stuff across his repertoire to make me think he can pull off 2020 again.
  • Griffin Canning – The raw stuff is there, but his injury history + general volatility makes him a rare upside stream and nothing more.
  • Anthony DeSclafani – He was incredibly shaky this year and while I expected to have him here, he’s likely just a streaming option to start the year and less of a guy I’d expect to stick on the roster all year.
  • Shohei Ohtani – I’m anticipating that he isn’t pitching as the Angels move him to be an exclusive hitter given all of his arm trouble. I could be completely wrong here and would slot Ohtani around the 40s given the heavy injury risk. Man, I’d love to see a full season of Ohtani on the bump.
  • Nate Pearson – Man, I’d love if he starts again next year. I have concerns that the Jays would play it safe with his elbow injury and stick him in the pen or even hold him back to start the year. Please be wrong…please be wrong…
  • Spencer Howard – It wasn’t fun watching him struggle with his changeup and slider this year. It’s a wait-and-see if anything dramatically changes out of the gate before drafting him in 12-teamers.
  • Keegan Akin – His stuff isn’t enough to trust in a 12-teamer early in April.
  • Randy Dobnak – Does he even start next year? His strikeout rate is super low as well, a pick is too much investment for a low return.
  • Homer Bailey – No idea where he ends up and if his return from injury features his old self.
  • Jake Odorizzi – He had a blister to the end the year and now heads to Free Agency. Yeah, he probably deserves a spot here, but look at the end of this list now, all of these names deserve a spot, and so do many inside this fringe list! I guess if he signs with a good ball club, he’s around the 70s or so. For the sake of not making too many edits, Odorizzi stays off for now, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he has a prominent spot come February.

 

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	TEX	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Shane Bieber	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Gerrit Cole	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Yu Darvish T2	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
5	Trevor Bauer	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	+2
6	Max Scherzer	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-2
7	Aaron Nola	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
8	Lucas Giolito	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
9	Walker Buehler	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+UR
10	Clayton Kershaw	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
11	Kenta Maeda	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
12	Zac Gallen	ARI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
13	Luis Castillo	SEA	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
14	Dinelson Lamet		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	+5
15	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+13
16	Stephen Strasburg T3		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+UR
17	Blake Snell	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-2
18	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-2
19	Jack Flaherty	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
20	Lance Lynn		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-10
21	Carlos Carrasco	ATL	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
22	Sonny Gray	BOS	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-16
23	Mike Clevinger	PIT	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-6
24	Hyun Jin Ryu T4		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+12
25	Zack Wheeler	PHI	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
26	Zach Plesac	STL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+7
27	Corbin Burnes	ARI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+16
28	Corey Kluber		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+UR
29	Max Fried	NYY	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-3
30	Charlie Morton	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Playing Time Question	-
31	Zack Greinke		Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts	-6
32	Jesús Luzardo T5	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside	-12
33	Kyle Hendricks		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+6
34	Chris Paddack	MIA	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-11
35	Patrick Corbin	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-8
36	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+12
37	Sixto Sánchez		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-5
38	Frankie Montas	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+21
39	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-5
40	David Price		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+UR
41	Dylan Bundy		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-10
42	Julio Urías		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-13
43	José Berríos	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-8
44	Aaron Civale		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-23
45	Jameson Taillon	CHC	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
46	Ian Anderson T6	ATL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+1
47	Pablo López	MIN	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-9
48	John Means		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+12
49	Kevin Gausman	TOR	Ace Potential Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+2
50	Tony Gonsolin	SD	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-
51	Joe Musgrove	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+UR
52	Tyler Mahle	SF	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+2
53	Framber Valdez	DET	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-4
54	Michael Kopech	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
55	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option Stash Option	-18
56	Deivi García		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
57	Triston McKenzie	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-13
58	Germán Márquez	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-5
59	Chris Bassitt T7	BAL	Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+12
60	Masahiro Tanaka	SD	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused	-15
61	Dustin May	STL	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-21
62	Dallas Keuchel		Toby Ratio Focused	-20
63	Kwang Hyun Kim		Toby Streaming Option	+14
64	Mike Minor		Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+10
65	Michael Soroka T8	ARI	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Stash Option	+UR
66	Chris Sale	ATL	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	+UR
67	Luis Severino		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	+UR
68	Noah Syndergaard		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Stash Option	+UR
69	MacKenzie Gore	TEX	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Stash Option	+UR
70	James Paxton		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
71	Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
72	José Urquidy T9		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+UR
73	Mitch Keller	PIT	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
74	Marcus Stroman		Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
75	Spencer Turnbull	KC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-7
76	Brady Singer	CIN	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+18
77	Daniel Ponce de Leon		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
78	Seth Lugo	KC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-21
79			Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
80	Caleb Smith		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
81	Ryan Yarbrough	NYY	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
82	Luke Weaver	NYM	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Ratio Focused	+2
83	Yusei Kikuchi	LAA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	-20
84	Domingo Germán		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
85	Zach Eflin T10	BAL	Toby Streaming Option	-24
86	Michael Pineda		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-4
87	Andrew Heaney		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-22
88	Matthew Boyd	CHC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-22
89	Rich Hill		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-20
90	Robbie Ray	SF	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-5
91	Garrett Richards		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-3
92	Madison Bumgarner		Injury Risk Toby Ratio Focused	+UR
93	Marco Gonzales	SD	Toby Streaming Option	-18
94	Cristian Javier	HOU	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-30
95	Dean Kremer	BAL	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
96	Tanner Houck	BOS	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
97	Tarik Skubal	DET	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-11
98	Josh Lindblom T11		Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-8
99	Sean Manaea	NYM	Injury Risk Ratio Focused	-29
100	Zach Davies		Toby Streaming Option	-27

(Graphic by Justin Paradis – @FreshmeatComm)