Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Leagues have the fun value added of factoring in players’ age and the incline or decline of their careers. There are most likely two groups of people in these leagues: trusted veteran owners or prospect hype owners. I fall in the middle but often get caught up in some of the top prospect hype and projections. Pitching is a bit different from hitting as its often harder to predict. Arm injuries are a far greater risk and seemingly increasing every year. Not only does the injury sideline the pitcher for a while, but the bounce back is always a question mark. Here I’ll take a look at some of the more intriguing choices between top prospects and established veterans.
Be sure to check out the hitter version of this article and plenty more on the Pitcher List dynasty page.
Veterans vs. Prospects Pitcher Edition
A top pitcher in the game right now and the most anticipated pitching prospect in some time square off here for a fun start. Castillo has been dominant in his seven-year MLB career, compared to Skenes who has yet to debut. Dynasty is what makes this even a conversation as Luis Castillo is now 31 years old. Paul Skenes turns 22 in May and could be making his MLB debut around that time.
Acquired from the Reds for Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt, and Andrew Moore, this trade has seemingly been great for both sides. Castillo established himself as a sure ace and top pitcher in baseball. With a career-high 197 innings in 2023, Castillo seems to be atop his game at 31 years old. Aging pitchers can quickly regress but Castillo shouldn’t drop too far below that top tier in the next 2-3 years.
Quite frankly, there is nothing not to like about Luis Castillo. An innings eater, a high strikeout rate, and a career 3.54 ERA pitcher over seven MLB seasons is as reliable as it comes. As a borderline top-five pitcher in baseball, Castillo also has the luxury of facing both the Athletics and Angels but is balanced out with the Rangers and Astros. Continued improvement, Castillo had his second lowest walk rate at 7% and his lowest ground ball rate by a large percentage at 38.9%.
The nit-picky of Castillo is the underlying stats in 2024 that could bring some balance to his numbers. First I’ll start by saying that I’m a huge Castillo fan and these are simply 1% percent concerns for a stud pitcher. His 2024 xERA, xFIP, and FIP were 3.79/3.81/3.81 with a .267 BABIP and his second-highest home run per nine rate at 1.28. His barrel percentage also jumped to 9.4% which is a huge jump from his previous high of 7.8%. That’s it. That’s all the negative I can talk about Luis Castillo. There is no doubt he’ll be a top pitcher in baseball for three to four more seasons. Back to the positive, seeing his walk rate lower and his career-high innings in his age-30 season gives plenty of reassurance.
As the most anticipated and hyped pitching prospect in recent history, Skenes should be pitching at the MLB level shortly. An absolute dominant force on the mound, Skenes is 6’6″ and 235 pounds. Firing in a 100 MPH fastball with a high 80’s slider and changeup, Skenes brings an electric arm to the starting rotation. The Pirates will likely want to see ~50 innings of Skenes at Double-A/Triple-A before promoting him to Pittsburgh. Even with a dominant spring training, he’ll likely spend the first month of the season in the minor leagues. With just 6.2 minor league innings in 2023, the Skenes hype is mostly projection although his 209 strikeouts in 122.2 innings at LSU speaks volumes about his upside. All of his pitches can generate elite whiff rates making him one of the top dynasty arms in all of baseball.
With two elite pitches and a work-in-progress changeup, Skenes has ace stuff. The numbers from LSU are just silly and spring training can’t come soon enough. Skenes vs Jackson Holliday is the matchup everyone has marked on their calendar this spring as it’ll be fun to overreact to one at-bat. Whatever happens this spring, or early in 2024, Skenes is most likely already a top 25 dynasty arm. This was almost an unfair matchup because unless it was Paul Skenes vs Eury Pérez or Spencer Strider, I’m taking Skenes.
Winner: Paul Skenes
A little White Sox vs Cubs action here as the 28-year-old Dylan Cease goes up against the 22-year-old Cade Horton. Both right-handed pitchers have plus offerings. Cease needs to bounce back from 2023 and Horton needs to face advanced hitters. Horton has quickly established himself as a top-10 pitching prospect that has a chance to pitch at the front of a rotation.
A bit of an interesting and dare I slightly overrated career so far for Cease. A dominant 2022 season where he pitched to a 2.20 ERA with 227 strikeouts in 184 innings, Cease has yet to replicate that dominant success. After Cease registered his third 200+ strikeout season in a row in 2023, overrated might not be the best word to use. On the flip side, his numbers don’t tell the story of an ace. The strikeout numbers are elite, as he’s reached 31.9%, 30.4%, and 27.3% in his three full seasons. The ERA and FIP numbers suggest that he lives around a low to mid-3s ERA pitcher but has yet to put together one of those seasons. A #1 starter might be premature at this point but Cease is only 28 and could rebound to a #2 starter.
Other concerns for Cease are the walks. He led the league in 2022 with 78 walks in 184 innings. He may have the elite strikeout numbers and limit the hits against but until the walks regress he can’t be an ace. 5th in walk percentage in 2023, Cease doesn’t give himself a good chance to maintain a low ERA. When his stuff is on and working, he has dominant starts, but is also prone to rough starts. It’s more of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde situation. He’ll absolutely shove in starts with high strikeouts and no earned runs but has a couple of starts where the walks and runs balloon. Still a good fantasy option, Cease could bounce back in a big way in his prime for the next four to six years.
Drafted seventh overall in 2022, Cade Horton had an excellent first season. He made it all the way to Double-A where he threw 27 innings. The real test for Horton’s ceiling will come in 2024 against more advanced competition for the duration of the season. The stuff is plus across the board giving confidence Horton will post high strikeout rates. Even if the ERA spikes a bit, he could still post 170 innings with 185 strikeouts. His fastball/slider combo is where the majority of the swing and miss come from, but his changeup and curveball should not be slept on.
The fastball lives in the mid-90s with good movement. The slider pairs perfectly with the pitch sitting in the mid-80s with a big late break. He has gotten away with pitches over the middle in some starts against weaker competition because of his raw stuff. His ability to locate is something to keep an eye on in 2024.
The question marks for Horton are the ability to improve his curveball and changeup, making him a frontline starter. His walk rate did jump to 10.1% in his small sample size of 27 Double-A innings. Horton is a top-five pitching prospect for me with the potential to quickly make his way to the Cubs rotation. While I think Horton most likely won’t put up 200+ strikeouts as easily as Cease, I’ll roll the dice here and take Horton.
Winner: Cade Horton
Freddy Peralta vs Jacob Misiorowski
A pair of electric right-handed arms, Peralta is coming off his best and most durable season while Misiorowski has established himself as a strikeout arm. Peralta is going to be 28 years old mid-season with a fresh arm innings-wise. Misiorowski will be 22 all season but still has to cement himself as a starter by lowering his walk rate.
One of my favorite pitchers since his debut in 2018, Peralta has electric stuff. His underlying numbers all pointed to being a #2/#3 starter and he reached that level in 2021. Since then Peralta hasn’t slowed down, with a career-high 165.2 innings in 2023. Peralta also tallied over 200 strikeouts for the first time in 2023 with an 11.41 strikeouts-per-nine rate. Durability is the biggest concern for Peralta at this point as he’s only thrown over 100 innings twice. With a solid four-pitch mix, Peralta uses his pitches equally but his elite slider is what allows him to tally high strikeouts. Peralta registered a 45.8% whiff rate in 2023 on his slider and if he can continue to throw upwards of 150 innings, he’s a top pitcher. This number is way up from the 30.2% whiff rate he registered in 2022 with that pitch.
Another huge positive for Peralta was seeing the lowest walk rate of his career in 2023 at 7.9%. Peralta has found success and hit his potential as a front-of-the-rotation starter. The next jump for Peralta is to increase his inning load to be the ace of the Brewers. With Corbin Burnes being traded to Baltimore and Brandon Woodruff out for season, Peralta is now the ace of the staff. With Robert Gasser, Carlos Rodriguez, and Jacob Misiorowski waiting in the wings, the Brewers are looking to Peralta to lead this young group.
Speaking of Jacob Misiorowski, he has one of the most powerful arms for a pitching prospect. His stuff is off the charts. Standing at 6’7″, his dominant downhill presence makes it difficult enough to pick the ball up. With a fastball that lives in the upper 90s, Misiorowski has good run on it as it jumps on hitters. Paired with a low 90s slider that drops away from right-handed hitters late, Misiorowski tallies plenty of strikeouts. The stuff is plus and he adds in a good curveball and changeup to bring a different look.
There is no question about the stuff and how it will play at the MLB level, but the walks are going to limit if he can even stick as a starter. A 13.4 walk rate is far too high to stick around as a starter. 42 walks in 71.1 innings is not sustainable even for a bullpen arm. The positive is that he only gave up 42 hits as well in those innings. There is a lot of improvement needed in 2024 before he can be locked in a trustworthy starting option.
The film on Misiorowski shows nasty stuff that makes me want to believe in improved command but it’s not there yet. The Brewers should give him a shot for at least all of 2024 to have the role of starter but if he fails to improve on his command the bullpen might be his future. Misiorowski has value even if he becomes a closer but 2024 will be crucial to figuring out his path. Given the question mark of whether he’ll stick around as a starter, Peralta wins here by a good margin.
Winner: Freddy Peralta
Two hard-throwing lefties, Skubal had his best season in 2023 while Harrison regressed. Skubal has been a top prospect for a while and is now 27 years old, reaching what looks to be his ace potential. Kyle Harrison had a mini breakout in 2022 but the walks crept back up in 2023, limiting his success.
By the looks of a minor breakout in 2023, Skubal pitched phenomenally in his 80.1 innings and there is room for more improvement. With just 58 hits against and 14 walks allowed, Skubal maintained a 2.80 ERA with a 2.00 FIP. He also saw a tremendous improvement in walk rate, lowering it by over 2%, down from 6.7% (2022) to 4.5%. Skubal also increased his already high strikeout percentage by over 5%, from 27.6% (2020) to 32.9%. It truly doesn’t get any better than a strikeout increase and walk decrease improvement from a young and promising pitcher. Skubal built his 2023 off a very solid 2022 season but he saw the strikeout rate make him an elite pitcher. Skubal is the no-doubt ace of the Tigers now and will look to put his name in some Cy Young conversations in 2024.
There isn’t much to pick apart from Skubal at this point so we can go with the unknown. How will the arm hold up? Health at this point is the biggest concern for the lefty as he missed half of 2023 due to an elbow injury. He did tally 149.1 innings in 2021 but has yet to reach that mark since. Skubal looks to be trending in the best direction possible to lead a crop of Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Wilmer Flores for the next few years. With health being tough to predict and still being only 27 gives him the edge here.
Walks have always been the main issue for Harrison. He looked to make some improvements in 2022 but the walk rate was still less than ideal at 11.2%. Harrison started the 2023 season at Triple-A where the regression took place to a 16.3%. In his brief 34.2-inning MLB debut, Harrison lowered his walk rate down to a shocking 7.5%. Harrison has three plus pitches that play at the big league level but he’ll need to keep the walk rate way down from 16.3% and closer to the small sample size of 7.5%. While he’s always struggled with walks, Harrison never was above 11.5% before the imploded 16.3% at Triple-A. The walk percentage should come down from 16.3% but it’s still too high to have complete trust in Harrison at the moment.
On more of a positive note, Harrison has a plus three-pitch mix that can allow him to reach frontline starter potential. His fastball lives in the mid 90s and is his best pitch. He struck out 11 batters in his home MLB debut in 6.1 innings. He was reaching back and just throwing his fastball by hitters all game. Harrison can reach back, hide the ball well, and allow his mid-90s fastball to quickly get on hitters. He ended the year with a five-inning no-hitter against the Dodgers, where he walked two and struck out four. Harrison is just 22 years old and will no doubt be a key part of the Giants’ rotation in 2024.
Winner: Tarik Skubal
Two crafty left-handed pitchers, Fried has been consistently above average since debuting in 2017 while Tiedemann had a dominant age-19 season across three levels. Fried has reached his ace potential but is now 30 years old. Tiedemann had a bicep injury in 2023, but if freshly 21 years old and on the verge of an MLB debut.
A model of elite consistency, Max Fried has been a top pitcher in baseball for the last four years. Fried can miss bats at an effective rate while also maintaining a low ERA. This allows him to sit atop the Braves rotation with Spencer Strider whenever he’s healthy. More of a finesse pitcher, Fried throws a low to mid-90s fastball/sinker that pairs well with his elite curveball. He generates almost a 40% whiff rate with his curve and the changeup isn’t far behind it. The off-speed keeps hitters more than off-balance as he tallies those high swing-and-miss percentages. Fried can throw any pitch at any time which gives him a major advantage over hitters as he doesn’t lean towards one specific pitch. A true artist with his pitches, Fried mixes it up and can dominate hitters because of it.
Fried is now entering his 8th season but has only thrown three seasons over 100 innings. Durability is a growing concern as he is now entering his age-30 season. Fried lives around the mid-8s for strikeouts-per-nine which is solid but most likely labels him as a #2 starter. Not the elite-level pitcher, Fried is still a top-15 pitching option. The concerns across the board here are minor but there are enough to make me lean the side of Tiedemann.
One of my favorite pitching prospects, Tiedemann reportedly gained 19 pounds of muscle this off-season. This could potentially help the durability concerns for Tiedemann coming off a bicep injury. 2022 was truly an insane stat line for the young lefty as he only gave up 39 hits in 78.2 innings across three levels. With a plus three-pitch mix of fastball, changeup, and slider, Tiedemann racks up the strikeouts. A 38.9% strikeout rate in 2022, followed by a 43.7% strikeout rate in 2023 gives Tiedemann elite upside. After going to the AFL for some extra reps, Tiedemann continued to show off his plus strikeout stuff but the walks continued to be an issue. Most likely the first call-up for an injury or if Alek Manoah can’t rebound, Tiedemann has a shot to throw most of his innings at the MLB level in 2024.
The walks and durability are what come into play here for the success of Tiedemann. He had a 9.8% walk rate in 2022 but jumped up to 12.2% in 2023. Given that he was injured in 2023 and pitched about half the innings he did in 2022, this may be inflated a bit. Still, Tiedemann will have to live around that 9.8% and might even need to lower that a bit. With just 122.2 career innings, Tiedemann is going to need to prove he can handle a full season. Overall I think the age of Fried vs Tiedemann and how close Tiedemann is to a debut give him the advantage. The positives outweigh the negatives here and I may have some prospect bias towards Tiedemann but I lean his way here.
Winner: Ricky Tiedemann
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Cade Horton on Twitter @cadehorton14
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram