Major League Baseball’s Opening Day is only a few days away so what better time to discuss an event that is happening in July: the 2024 MLB draft.
The 2023 MLB draft class could end up being a historic one. Wyatt Langford, Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews highlight a class that seemingly had an unprecedented number of prospects enter Top 100 lists if not immediately, then by the offseason following the draft. Pair this 2023 energy with some college arms and bats that are off to sizzling starts this spring, and suddenly a 2024 draft class that originally felt a bit underwhelming is picking up steam and a sense of anticipation.
What also makes this draft a bit more fun—the lottery. The lottery, which was held at the Winter Meeting for the second straight year, saw some teams make big jumps (or falls) in the order. Most notably, the Guardians ascended from the ninth slot to the top spot in the draft, while the Reds jumped from 13th all the way up to second. That’s an exciting shakeup, and as a result, two teams that are positioned to be potential playoff contenders in 2024 have the opportunity to add to their respective farms.
Let’s get to a mock draft of the Top 10 picks, as of March. All stats are as of March 25.
Top 10 Mock Draft
1. Cleveland Guardians – Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
So the main discussion point right now is that there is no clear-cut number one. In fact, it would not surprise me if any of the players listed in the top seven or so in this mock draft ended up going first overall. Obviously, unlike other sports, the decision during the MLB draft does not always come down to the best player available, but rather the best player available who is willing to sign a deal that the organization finds acceptable. The most notable example in recent memory is Pittsburgh selecting Henry Davis first overall in the 2021 draft over someone like Jack Leiter, who went second to Texas. Davis signed under slot value with Pittsburgh, while Leiter signed slightly over slot with Texas.
That certainly complicates mock drafting as I’m not privy to these types of financial and strategic discussions that these organizations are having around these picks. For the most part, we will proceed with this mock draft based on a combination of a best player available mentality, along with positional need and/or historic drafting decisions and development of prospects from an organizational point of view.
All of that is to bring us back to the Guardians selection. Right now, Bazzana makes the most sense for Cleveland. The Oregon State second baseman has been tearing the cover off the ball this spring, triple-slashing .471/.581/1.054 with 14 home runs and six steals in 23 games. Bazzana is a left-handed hitter with a bat-first profile. There are some question marks around his defense, but the offensive profile is strong enough to make him stand out in this year’s class.
While the Guardians have been a machine in developing their pitching prospects in recent years, it’s no secret that they have also targeted middle infield prospects. Brayan Rocchio, Juan Brito, Angel Martinez, Jose Tena, Khalil Watson, Tyler Freeman, and Gabriel Arias are just a few names that fit this mold and have either reached the majors or are knocking on the door of a big league debut. Bazzana fits this type of player, and at this stage he’s a better bet than all of them.
2. Cincinnati Reds – Chase Burns, P, Wake Forest
If you’re dialed into the college baseball scene even a little bit, you’ve seen a Burns highlight by now. His fastball/slider combination is electric and he has been racking up strikeouts at an eye-popping rate. For the uninformed, Burns has made six starts, logging 68 strikeouts in 37.1 innings. Through those six outings, he’s sporting a sparkling 1.93 ERA. His performance and ability to put together highlight-worthy outings have caused the hype around him to build with each and every start. I’m not sure if Burns’ popularity has quite reached that of Leiter and Kumar Rocker back in 2021, but he’s knocking on that door.
This is the right-hander’s first season with Wake Forest after spending two seasons at Tennessee. It’s clear that the Wake Forest pitching lab has unlocked another level within Burns. He was a productive pitcher at Tennessee, but he also split time between the rotation and the bullpen. That does bring up some questions as to whether or not he will be able to carry a big-league workload.
The Reds have not been shy about taking pitchers. Just a year ago they selected Rhett Lowder with the seventh overall selection and took Ty Floyd in the second round. Burns would be a nice addition to a group of promising young arms.
3. Colorado Rockies – Charlie Condon, 1B/3B/OF, Georgia
Condon has been a man-possessed to kick off the 2024 campaign, triple-slashing .517/.637/1.214. Those numbers are just ridiculous, but that’s what happens when you belt 17 home runs in 25 games. From strictly a hitting point of view, Condon might be the best bat in this draft, and he does get an edge in that sense over someone like Jac Caglianone and Nick Kurtz (more on them shortly) given that he could be passable at third base or settle into a corner infield spot. You have to imagine he slows down at least a little bit at some point, but Condon has done enough already to at least warrant some serious consideration at number one.
4. Oakland Athletics – Jac Caglianone, 1B/P, Florida
Caglianone definitely has a case to go number one given that he has a chance to be one of the better hitters in this draft AND one of the better pitchers in this class. At the plate, he has other-worldly power. In 71 games during the 2023 campaign, Caglianone smashed 33 homers and finished with an absurd .738 SLG. There are concerns that he would be vulnerable to higher-level pitching, but the damage he can do with the lumber from a power perspective is significant. He’s triple-slashing .394/.474/.737 with 11 home runs in his first 23 games in 2024.
On the bump, Caglianone has been better in 2024 than a year ago. He’s only thrown 27.1 innings, but he’s put up a 1.65 ERA and struck out 39. He’s walked 18, though, which was the concern coming into the spring.
Whether a team attempts to develop him as a pitcher, a hitter, or both, Caglianone presents a unique combination of floor and ceiling.
5. Chicago White Sox – J.J. Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia
It’s very possible that Wetherholt is the best player in this class, but he has been nursing a hamstring injury since late February. As a result of this, Wetherholt has only appeared in four games. With other top prospects performing at extremely high levels to start the year, it seems like it’s a real possibility that that could cause Wetherholt to slip in this draft.
If that does happen, whichever team does snag him could be getting a big steal. Wetherholt put up a bonkers .449/.517/.787 triple slash in 55 games in 2023, tacking on 16 home runs and 26 steals. His future defensive home profiles best at second base. If he gets back into game action relatively soon and produces similarly to how he did a year ago, he could once again be the favorite to go number one overall.
6. Kansas City Royals – Hagen Smith, P, Arkansas
Smith has been electric to start 2024, posting a 1.24 ERA across 29 innings and six starts. Oh, and he’s struck out 62 while allowing just 10 walks and 11 hits. The absolute highlight performance came in his start against Oregon State, where Smith fanned 17 (!) batters in six innings. His velocity has also trended in the right direction and there is a chance we are just seeing the beginning of his breakout. If Hagen continues to perform at this level and starts to consistently pitch deeper into games, he may even be the first arm off the board.
7. St. Louis Cardinals – Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
Honeycutt is known for his defensive prowess in the outfield and has shown an uptick in offensive production to start 2024. Through 24 contests, the junior is hitting .323/.458/.645 with eight home runs and 14 steals. He has struck out nearly 27% of the time, though. If he can cut down on the strikeouts and keep up the offensive output, I’d be more confident he remains in the Top 10. The Cardinals have developed several outfield prospects in recent years, and drafted Chase Davis just a year ago, so someone like Honeycutt fits the mold.
8. Los Angeles Angels – Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
Montgomery is technically a two-way player, but he’s been pitching less and less each year in college so he’s likely a hitter-only prospect in the pros. The switch-hitting outfielder is off to a hot start for Texas A&M after transferring from Stanford, triple-slashing .375/.509/.875 with 12 home runs in 24 games. With more walks than strikeouts, his plate discipline profiles as a plus tool. The Angels have shown in recent years that they like to take college players that they can fast-track to the bigs, and Montgomery could be that next piece.
9. Pittsburgh Pirates – Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Unlike the names mentioned above, Kurtz’s 2024 performance has caused his stock to dip. Through 17 games, the power-hitting lefty has hit just .241/.475/.444 with three home runs. Despite only five extra-base hits, his plate discipline is excellent. He currently has twice as many walks as strikeouts speaking to his advanced approach.
There is plenty of time for him to find his power stroke, and perhaps he will need to be more aggressive to do so, but for now his 2024 production is causing him to slide to the back half of the Top 10.
10. Washington Nationals – Seaver King, OF, Wake Forest
Hey look! Another Wake Forest player. There is a very good chance that even if this is not the order of how these three players go, we will see three Wake Forest selections in the first 10 selections. That’s pretty impressive, regardless of the draft class.
King is a transfer from Division-II, so this is his first taste of Division I ball. He’s holding his own so far, triple-slashing .307/.355/.555 with six home runs and five steals in his first 23 games. He may have the biggest ceiling of anyone in this Top 10, but he also has the most to prove.
Head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page for more content on the game’s top prospects!