Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is: I told you so! I mean, I’m not doing so well in most of my leagues, but I was the one guy crazy enough to say sell high on Triston Casas and Luis Robert after one week of play, and if you did that, you probably feel pretty smart right now. Trading for Tommy Edman after I wrote him up last week probably felt pretty good too. Just, like, forget that time I called Otto Lopez a 12-team buy and then doubled down. I thought he’d, like, run, okay? You can still take advantage of impatience, especially now with the volatility of new big prospects shaking things up. And no, I’m not mentioning Chandler Simpson here, because he’s already added everywhere. Wait I’m a liar, I just DID mention Chandler Simpson! Could I eat any more shorts? Enough patter, on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Dylan Crews (OF, Washington Nationals)
Did someone in your league drop him? Well then get Crews into your boathouse, because he’s had several good games in a row. He was off to such an abysmal start that even more patient owners were tested as he was starting to see reductions in playing time, and his line still looks ugly with a .186/.219/.286 with 2 HR and 6 SB. But if it’s any consolation, that’s not so much worse than 2nd-round pick Jarren Duran (who I also like as a buy-low trade target, mind you). At least in the meantime, Crews has provided big speed and non-zero power, but I think more good times are coming.
Crews actually has, despite the poor surface numbers, been making the EXACT same contact on both strikes and balls as last year, with an identical 26% O-Swing% and 10% SwStr% as well. But how about the quality? He’s actually surpassed last year’s MaxEV with a solid 111 mph mark, with more than double the barrel rate at 14% and a reduced HardHit% of 38% somewhat negated by a harder average eV (90 mph). In the end, Statcast thinks he’s a great buy-low with a .287 xBA and .495 xSLG. I expect a month from now, he’ll be a lot closer to those numbers than his current line, oh and also with gobs of stolen bases. The star breakout dream was only slightly delayed, not deferred.
Nick Kurtz (1B, Oakland Athletics)
Some players will take a bow after a great performance, but he might be the first to Kurtzy. Look, someone should get him in every league. Whether it will be you depends some on just how crowded your corner infield is. Sure, lots of prospects fail, especially hitters, nowadays, and he was striking out more at the higher level. But he also was promoted so aggressively because the team believes he’s ready after slugging six jacks in Triple-A after just being drafted last year, and based on the fact they’re willing to move Soderstrom and/or Rooker off their positions, I’d go off their hunch he’s here to stay and will be a truly special bat. Expect big power if nothing else, bigger when the Athletics are at home.
Honorable Mention: Dylan Moore (2B/3B/SS/OF, Seattle Mariners) – I know the track record is bad, but 10-team benches are usually shallow, and right now he’s someone who can play everywhere and do everything. And I think much like O’Hearn, he managed to combine his historical tendency of high barrel rates with his more recent tendency of making more contact. That’ll leave a lot more of Dylan’s long flies blowing in the wind.
12-team
Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles)
He lacks the pedigree and upside of others, but he’s slowly and steadily O’Earning his stripes. I get it, he has the Aranda problem of not playing quite every day, and there is always a risk of lineup cloggage, but he is distinguishably better than last year. Unlike 2024, where he massively cut down his strikeouts but at the expense of his batted-ball quality, this time he’s hitting the ball both hard and often. His excellent 84% Contact% is even slightly better than last year with a point or two of more Z-Contact, with an also excellent 23% CSW%. But what really has me excited is he’s actually hitting the ball harder than ever, with a 55% HardHit%, and a barrel rate of 9% and MaxEV of 109 mph that is slightly higher than last year. That’ll play, even if it is in a timeshare.
What’s really intriguing to me is the combination of the two leading to Statcast loving him, with an xBA of .327 and an xSLG of .521 (actually pretty close to his .519 actual SLG%). Granted, the MaxEV is still rather tepid being under 110 mph, however every year but last year he’s managed to consistently strike the ball often (last year was just 40% HardHit%). His dual eligibility makes him more appealing, and given his age and ho-hum season last year, he can still be had rather cheaply due to the playing time uncertainty despite the strong surface numbers.
Maikel Garcia (2B/3B/OF, Kansas City Royals)
I honestly think one of the biggest depressing factors on his ownership rates is traumatic associations with the last Maikel we believed in. Aside from the speed, hey there are some concerning similarities as a high contact guy who doesn’t barrel often. But for one, Maikel finally has become an OBP league asset with a doubled walk rate, despite his chase rate being the same as last year. How? Well, his 21% O-Swing% last year was elite, but somehow just never made it to four balls, maybe because pitchers felt comfortable challenging him in the zone. You probably didn’t notice, but there’s a reason pitchers have been more fearful.
The diminutive middle infielder has been walloping the ball like he did in the second half of 2023 or perhaps even better, with an eye-popping HardHit% of 58% and an elite average eV of 94 mph, up four full miles per hour from his solid rate of 90 last year. The current barrel rate of 7% is also double his career rate, even though his MaxEV of 109 is basically the same so some regression can be expected. While he has not been stealing bases much and has been caught a few times, I still expect this to be a blip given his success on the basepaths last year, though it’s giving me flashbacks of CJ Abrams’s start of 2024. But the other reason I love Maikel right now is that after the Melendez demotion, he’s also getting reps in OF and can be a true utility threat who helps everywhere and everything, much like Dylan Moore above him but with fewer barrels but a higher overall floor. Add in 12-team formats, especially in OBP formats.
Honorable Mention: Austin Hays (OF, Cincinnati Reds) – He came back from the IL with a bang with a trio of home runs, so I assume no ill effects. Don’t consider last year as he was battling kidney issues, and remember he’s a flyball-oriented player with fringy power in a park made for that kind of hitter.
15-team
Eric Wagaman (1B/3B, Miami Marlins)
Anyone who follows me on BlueSky knows I haven’t been shutting up about thinking Wagaman is undervalued since last September, and so he was my favorite offseason signing. I know, I’m weird. I’m kicking myself for adding him and moving on too fast in my dynasty leagues, even though I knew the path to playing time was there. He’s been striking the ball extra hard, with a 51% HardHit% and a 9% Barrel%, with a nice even batted ball distribution.
Statcast straight-up adores him with an xBA of .328 and an xSLG of .592, way up from a few weeks ago when I wrote him up as a NL-only add and had an xBA of .300 and an xSLG in the mid .400s. He is going to keep playing and the dual 1B/3B eligibility is nifty. Could he be better than Jake Burger or Mark Vientos this year? Crazier things have happened. He now does also have first base eligibility in some leagues. I’d consider as an add in all 15-team formats and a possible spec in 12-team AVG leagues.
Gavin Lux (2B/3B/OF, Cincinnati Reds)
I get that he has a .440 BABIP and when you get past that, the 1 HR and 1 SB make the whole profile look suspect. But I think I still see enough to make me interested. His 8% Barrel may not turn heads but is his career-best, as is his 43% HardHit%. The suddenly excellent 15% walk rate is supported by a career-best 19% O-Swing%, a truly elite rate, and the contact% is also up with a career-best 82% contact% and 7% SwStr%. Given his hitter-friendly home park and the other infielders falling apart, I don’t buy Statcast’s pessimistic project and I think the power surge is coming. Add in all 15-team leagues and consider as a utility bench add in 12-team OBP.
Mickey Moniak (OF, Colorado Rockies)
Yes, I know it’s the Rockies, and I really want to love Moniak as a guy who seems to always beat the projections going to a park where EVERYONE beats the projections. Statcast may darn well call a hit on Moniak. Given the fact he has 3 homers and an improved 19% K% and 8% BB%, I was actually planning on writing him as a buy. Then I saw his ugly 18% SwStr% and even worse 34% CSW% and switched him to sell.
But then I saw his excellent barrel rate and 50% HardHit% and brought him back, since he has a .288 xBA. Remember what I said about him being a guy who usually outperforms projections and a park Statcast usually underrates? Although he’s a strong side platoon bat for now, he’s the #5 hitter against righties and perhaps could earn more reps given the sorry state of the rest of the team, in which case he could be more like a 20-15 guy, so any batting average is gravy.
He could be a sneaky 15-10 play with potential for more in 15-team five-outfielder leagues.
Honorable Mention: Noelvi Marte (3B, Cincinnati Reds) – A few big games and a 117 mph home run mean he’s probably already been added in many 12-team formats. I still think that’s an overreaction to a few good games, but the upside makes him worth the plunge in 15-teamers for now.
Deep Leagues
Trey Sweeney (SS, Detroit Tigers)
Sweeney is essentially a “trust the process” guy, as aside from his extreme and frankly pretty terrible 65% GB%, there’s a lot to like in his profile this year. He’s made big improvements across the board, with better plate discipline, a solid 111 mph MaxEV, and most importantly, a huge jump in contact% up from 67% to 80%. That’s like a poor man’s Yandy Diaz, no? More playing time may also be opening up for them as they try to bounce Baez around to extend his limited relevancy.
Luis Urias (2B/3B, Athletics)
This is admittedly a super deep league play because he’s currently still in a three-player timeshare for third base, but I ultimately think he will win a job. But it just might not be at third base. See, prospect Max Muncy at second is struggling mightily right now as well, and the promotion of Kurtz, while it could push Rooker to outfield, could push Soderstrom to 3B. But the Occam’s Razor suggests that they’d rather have an outfielder go back to playing outfield (even if poorly) than having a locked-in budding star suddenly start learning a new position. And Occam’s Uriazor says that Urias will win more at-bats because he’s hitting .300 where his competition are wriggling around the Mendoza Line.
In any case, it’s only 28 PA so too early to tell, but early results suggest Urias has vastly improved his contact skills, with a 93% Contact% and 97% Z-Contact%, a huge jump from his last year’s contact% of 80%. The 3% SwStr% and 21% CSW% while of course will probably regress, do have me fondly reminiscing of his prospect days, and he is 27 so a star breakout is guaranteed. Yes, that’s how this works. Even if it’s from having his appearances cherry-picked, It’s certainly good he’s doing it while hitting the ball as hard as usual, with a ho-hum 32% HardHit% but a 9% Barrel. Sure, that’s still kinda lame, and he has a fairly long track record of major league mediocrity, but remember the contact rate jump, his formerly decent prospect pedigree, and that he’s in a great hitter’s park. He’s no Jacob Wilson, but he could be the dual-eligible Temu Jacob Wilson. UPDATE: Well whaddayaknow, Mini-Muncy (Munckin?) got sent down and Roster Resource has Urias as the starting 2B and #9 hitter. I added him in a few 30-team dynasties dropping Kyle Farmer (I consider Farmer Kyle a sell BTW to get him)
Honorable Mention: Brett Baty (3B, New York Mets) – He’s hitting .313 this week with just 3 K and 3 BB in 19 PA, and is still hitting the ball hard enough that I think it’s worth scooping up cheap shares. But he might get sent down soon when McNeil returns, so it kind of depends on your ability to stash.
SELL
10-team
Mark Vientos (3B, New York Mets)
I thought maybe he was having trouble adjusting to the major leaguer’s spring daily grind, but now I think he’s having more trouble with his daily groin. Even before the injury, I couldn’t help continuing my bearish take on him (despite Nick’s assurances that he’d be a star) and I avoided him in every draft, because high strikeout hitters like him are simply too volatile. The odd thing is my biggest concern, his contact rate, did improve, with his contact rate up from 68% last year to 73% and a league-average 27% CSW% thanks also to better plate discipline. But he sold the barrels to get them, as he’s sporting a surprisingly mediocre 35% HardHit% and a 7% Barrel% that is half of his 2024 rate.
Sure, you can say that since he traded one for the other, it cancels out and therefore is fine. But I’ve seen this thing happen before often with sluggers, much like Austin Riley in his sophomore year and Jake Burger more recently, at least in the first half. And the takeaway is that trading batted ball quality for quantity usually doesn’t pay, and it might take him a while to realize that. The hot corner has certainly been less active than first base on the wire, but I think I’m okay with selling low if the team offers about 80-85% of the draft day price given his pair of recent homers, provided he makes it back healthy (at least on paper). Because is he was weak before, I doubt the groin injury will help with that.
Dishonorable Mention: Spencer Steer (1B/OF, Cincinnati Reds) – He may not admit it, but he’s clearly bothered by that preseason injury, well either that or he just entirely forgot how to hit. He’s no longer in line for an opportunity to accumulate and without that his mediocre rate production won’t make much shallow league impact. Best hope is he improves as the oblique heals, but it could take time, so until then I’d Spencer Steer clear.
12-team
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, Kansas City Royals)
This is what you get when you order an “Italian Breakfast” but at the Olive Garden. He’s been swinging a stale breadstick, hitting just .186/.260/.314 with 2 homers, disappointing many who were sure the breakout was upon us, again. I wanted to just assume he’s a slow starter, as he has been in his short history, but one thing jumped out to me… he has not been a good contact hitter this year. His CSW is 30%, a big jump up from last year’s strong 23%, and his overall contact% is down 10 points from 87% to 78% (though more of the contact decline from pitches off the plate).
He’s hitting more flyballs this year, so I think this could be an example of when the Launch Angle Revolution turns into a Robespierre-led ruckus. Because it hasn’t increased his power, and it’s not a great park for homers, and the lineup hasn’t been hitting either. In the end his season line could look a lot more like a typical Nate Lowe season than what his draft day price suggested, and it could even be more like .250 with under 20 dingers. Che terribile!
I’d cut in 10-team formats where there are likely better options who may offer similar upside but are currently hot. Because, whereas I can look at the peripherals of guys like Alec Bohm and to a lesser extent, Jake Burger, and say they’ll probably be fine, Vinny does give me some pause-quantino.
Dishonorable Mention: Andrew Vaughn (1B, Chicago White Sox) – After hitting .145 and slugging .277, I’m starting to wonder if the White Sox will replace him with Mo Vaughn. The 57-year-old may still outhit him.
15-team
Christopher Morel (2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
Let’s read the room here, okay? Simpson got called up. Misner is still doing pretty well, Mangum, despite all logic, is having a terrific season, and Morel is hitting .246 with 1 Homer and 2 Stolen Bases in 68 PA. Okay, I think I buried the lede there. Wait, no this is the lede… He has a 42% K% and his .246 batting average is inflated by a .438 BABIP. Yes, I know he also has an 18% Barrel%, but he’s turning into Patrick Wisdom and it’s time to extract him now before it starts getting really painful.
Dishonorable Mention: Jose Iglesias (2B, San Diego Padres) – Seems the bottom is dropping out on the 35-year-old as his 81% Contact% is a career-worst, but his batted ball quality is even worse, hitting mostly weak grounders, and what little trade value he has now will be more than he’ll have the rest of the year. Still a clubhouse gem but in a less favorable ballpark than Coors, I wouldn’t expect a repeat.
Deep Leagues
Max Schuemann (2B/3B/SS, Athletics)
He doesn’t have Urshela’s great defense, he doesn’t have Urias’s high contact rate, and in fact his has taken a big turn for the worse this year, with a horrible 32% CSW%. He may be major league roster spackle, but that’s far from useful even in super deep fantasy. He’s currently losing the ever-intriguing Schuemann/Schneemann utilityman relevance battle.
Tim Anderson (SS, Los Angeles Angels)
Neto is back, his April was wack, now the career of Tim will fade to black. I didn’t think he could possibly be worse than last year, but with a negative launch angle and a 101 mph MaxEV, he taught me that anything is possible. Even in the deepest of leagues, it’s time to put him on a boat to find an indy ball league under the sea.
