Buy & Sell 5/8 – Identifying Who to Add and Who to Drop

Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is “The Middle (Infield”) by Jimmy Eat wOBA. I’m pretty darn geeked on the performance of several middle infielders leading the charge, and although all of them have been red-hot lately, I also encourage you to not be afraid to “buy high”. Why is that okay? Well in part, because the idea that you always must buy low and sell high means that teams may be looking to flip their surging players now, and may not realize that the true breakout for their players still lies ahead. There’s still a bunch of relative no-names who are languishing on waiver wires despite strong stats, and I think taking the plunge is often better than sticking with the more well-known mediocre hitter. So let’s move on with Buy & Sell!

 

BUY

10-team

 

Zach Neto (SS, Los Angeles Angels)

Yes I know he’s probably not on your wire, and I think you should go get him anyway. I was already a fan as I drafted him in nearly all my leagues as I was less worried about his injury, but not only has he come back looking fine, he’s come back looking fiiiiine. He’s hitting .290/.323/.565 with 4 homers and 7 stolen bases, which is among the best stat lines at shortstop. Here’s the thing though… he did that in just 65 PA. (Irresponsible Extrapolation Warni- OH WHO CARES That’s pacing for 40 homers and 70 stolen bases in 650 PA! Eat your heart out, 2023 Ronald Acuna Jr.!

Now, here’s where I’d normally backtrack and discuss the flaws and regression. But I’m buoyed by the fact that Statcast actually considers him unlucky, and digging deeper, I understand why. They give him an insane xBA of .329 and xSLG of .674. And I thought we were excited about the power/speed! Yes, his sample being smaller means the regression also will, but he’s also barreling double his 2024 rate at 16%. That’s in part because he’s hitting the ball at an AVERAGE of 95 mph, and also because of his insane 61% Launch Angle Sweet Spot%. Even more impressive is he’s managed to hit the ball this much harder and more in the air with hardly sacrificing contact, with an identical contact rate as last year but a higher CSW% due to waiting for his pitch resulting in more called strikes.

Unlike other hot starts like Carson Kelly and Jorge Polanco, Neto’s breakout seems more real given his first rounder pedigree, insane numbers in the minors and the fact he’s still just 24. I think if he ended up on your wire somehow (unlikely) he’s a must-add in all leagues, even 10-teamers and 8-teamers. no matter who your starting shortstop is, and in the few leagues I don’t have him, I’m trying to blow them away with a bold offer now before more stats roll in, since I think he can be a league-winner type.

 

Maikel Garcia (2B/3B/SS/OF, Kansas City Royals)

If you listened to me a few weeks ago when I told you to pick him up (the 4/24 edition, to be exact), you’re probably chilling on a beach sipping Mai-Tais. In the Pitcher List Legacy League, I managed to add him a few weeks ago, accidentally forgetting to approve a trade of Hunter Goodman for Maikel, but then shortly after he was dropped and I scooped him. His bat caught up with the insanely good expected stats by hitting .480 this week with 2 homers, and more important for fantasy purposes, stealing 5 bases.

Now that his wheels are going and we know from last year the value he can provide just from the steals, he’ll be super helpful in any league with a reasonable floor of hitting .280-.290 with 10-15 homers and 3o+ stolen bases. I mean, isn’t that basically what we’re hoping for out of Trea Turner? On top of that, Maikel has multiple highly useful eligibilities now at the scarce 2B, the stars & scrubs 3B, and OF that can be a wasteland in 5 OF leagues. He’s still just 25, and the 2024 Maikel Hype Machine that flopped may have just been one year before its time, because this could be his star turn. Oh, and don’t forget he’s also an OBP god. He’s a must-add and a trading buy-high in all leagues.

 

12-team

 

Gleyber Torres (2B, Detroit Tigers)

Maybe what he needed to mature was to leave New York so he could stop being called Gleybaby. At least the “Happy Gleyber Day” made sense. Gleyber is off to a torrid start, with a healthy .291/.361/.465 line with 4 homers and 4 stolen bases in his new Detroit digs, surpassing the expectations of most who expected he’d perform more like Jonathan India as a team that doesn’t often run and has a terrible park for homers.

Now, I mention this because Statcast thinks he’s quite unlucky, and I know that Statcast often says this for Tigers hitters because they’re unlucky that Comerica is their home park. But regardless, he has a fantastic .311 xBA and even more shocking .600 xSLG. Given this, I expected a new high exit velocity, but it’s actually down with a quite poor 108 MaxEV (down 3 mph from last year’s 111 mph mark). That being said, his 12% barrel% is exactly double his 2024 rate, and his average exit velocity of 90 mph is good and better than last year. But the real change is his contact, which has jumped to a career-high 84% (80% in 2024). His plate discipline has also improved for the 3rd consecutive year with an elite 17% without a commensurate drop in Z-Swing%, giving him an elite SwStr% of 7% and CSW% of 23% (both also career bests), even though the 9% K% might still regress some.

Right now all the hype is on Javier Baez, but Gleyber is “boring” enough for his breakout to fly under the radar, even though he could conceivably hit .290 with a 20/20 and strong run production, kind of like Luis Garcia Jr. from last year but without the platoon. And given his gradual improvement, maybe he’ll be even better. Add in all 12-team leagues as well as 10-team OBP, as we embrace his new Detroit nickname, the Tigleyr. Nope. Motowrres? Yikes. Gleyght Mile? Call the presses, WE HAVE A WINNER!

 

Dane Myers (OF, Miami Marlins)

Everyone is talking about a different Miami Marlins whose name rhymes with Style Towers, but I prefer to go with the guy whose name rhymes with Plane Flyers. Wait why I am I not saying their regular names? I DON’T KNOW. Also I just realized that combination of Rhyme Names is not great and not intentional because I am NOT a 14-year old internet edgelord (I was, but those days are now behind me). Anyway, Plane Flyers has been taking off down the runway with 6 stolen bases, to go with a surprisingly explosive overall line of .356/.397/.521 with 3 homers, all in just 78 PA. That’s pretty great, Dane.

Although I’m wary of over-relying on expected stats in such small samples, it’s certainly encouraging that Statcast is fully on board with a 99th-percentile xBA of .340 and still quite solid xSLG of .493. It’s easy to assume this will fully crash to earth since he has no track record, but he’s only had limited playing time in past years and there were some interesting stats under the hood. Despite a poor 107 mph MaxEV the past 2 years (he hit 111 mph in his 2023 debut) he’s managed to smack the ball hard consistently with his current HardHit% of 47% actually being his worst. His main problem has always been strikeouts, and while his much-improved 25% K% may be a bit over his skis, he still has a career-best 78% Contact%, even though most of it is actually fueled by an 82% O-Contact% that is actually higher than this Z-Contact% (78%). Weird, but I’ll still take it, especially as it happened stopped him from hitting a fantastic 47% LA SweetSpot% (98th percentile).

In any case, while I do expect more regression than the names above him, I’m confident that he has secured a regular role in the Marlins’ OF, since Derek Hill showed less before his injury, and Myers has a cannon for an arm with a 99th percentile arm value and strength. While it’s possible he’s more of a streamer, his power/speed upside makes him a great add in all 15-teamers and a strong speed spec in 12-team batting average leagues.

 

15-team

 

Rhys Hoskins (1B, Milwaukee Brewers)

He was a superstar in spring and a disaster in early April, but despite a ho-hum week, I’m finally at Pys with Rhys. That’s supposed to say “peace”, okay? He hit just .182 with a homer this week, but his peripherals have been improving and indicating he’s the same hitter he’s always been besides last year. And that’s boring, but at least it’s good boring!

I wouldn’t think a true breakout is coming because of the .267 AVG and career-best 21% K%, since his contact rates suggest that will backslide barring future improvements. But he’s still in a pretty good lineup that just got their star Jackson Chourio back, and I trust more in the boring, long-term value than trying to ride the roller coaster of late-game first basemen like Matt Mervis, Nick Kurtz and maybe even Ty France, who admittedly looks more appealing in the short-term but tends to be quite streaky. It’s like investing in VOO instead of trying to find the next Palantir. If you want a set it and forget it first baseman who will punch the clock and probably hit .240+ with 26-30 homers and a high OBP, here’s your guy. Add in 15-team and 12-team OBP.

 

Daniel Schneemann (2B/3B/SS/OF, Cleveland Guardians)

Given the news of a minor league pitcher throwing to Taylor Ward as a pregame warmup, I recommend bringing back retired pitcher Jeff Niemann so we can have a tandem of Niemann/Schneemann. Yeah I know, throwing a BP fastball would still probably result in Jeff Niemann requiring surgery.

I regret not being more in on Schneemann this year after seeing a lot of things I liked rostering him last year, primarily his high barrel rate and hard contact with a passable contact%, at least early on. Early this year, it seemed he was overly barrel-crazy and whiffing a ton, but it seemed to have leveled out, and he’s now hitting a sturdy .286/.367/.571 with 5 home runs in just 70 AB (80 PA). It’s supported by his Statcast metrics thanks to his surprisingly elite 21% Barrel% and 52% HardHit%, and his rolling xwOBA has been steadily rising before a bigger surge this week.

There’s a lot of disappointing hitters in Cleveland this year at nearly every position, including Jhonkensy Noel, Nolan Jones, Brayan Rocchio, and others, so the fact that Schneemann plays all over the diamond means I think he’s finally earned his way into full-time reps even as a super-sub. I could see a Ben Zobrist-y like outcome for him, well, without as much of the stolen base aspect anyway (though he did steal 3 bases last year and has above-average sprint speed (71st percentile). I’m mostly encouraged that he cut his problematic whiffing, with a K% of 25% after an ugly 32% last year. Given the playing time concerns, he’s likely still available in many 15-team leagues, and you’d be wise to snatch him up before your league mates’ get off the Schneid and scoop up Schneemann.

 

Deep Leagues

 

Nolan Jones (OF, Cleveland Guardians)

Look, I know it’s been painful, with Jones batting under the Mendoza line and only 2 homers and a stolen bases to show for it. I even considered him being a sell thanks to playing time pressure from Noel. But looking at their Statcast pages side by side, I’m betting on this horse by a Kentucky mile, since despite the bad surface numbers, he’s still making very hard contact often (97th percentile) with barrels and also speed, whereas Noel only has bat speed that he hasn’t been able to translate to game power this year. If you have a bench, I’d hold, but in AL-only formats, I refuse to cut.

 

Rowdy Tellez (1B, Seattle Mariners)

The Legend of Rowdy lives to see another day. Although it seemed the beefy first baseman could be out of baseball after the horrible campaign last year, he’s bounced back with barrels aplenty, with a career-best 15% Barrel% and the best average exit velocity (92 mph) since 2021. With Raley hitting the IL, first base is wide open for Tellez, with the closest thing to a playing time threat being from Dylan Moore (who plays everywhere) and Donovan Solano… and one look at his season line will assuage those concerns. Add in AL-only but consider as a spec add or injury replacement for 15-team batting average leagues.

 

Brandon Lockridge (OF, San Diego Padres)

Do you need stolen bases and a decent amount of playing time. Lockridge is your guy. Roster Resource still doesn’t list him as a starter, but since he’s returned he’s racked up 11 AB and hit a cromulent .273 with only 1 strikeout and 2 SB, bringing his season total to 5 SB (0 CS) in 42 AB. One look at his Statcast page may scare you away, but I’m encouraged by his much-improved 19% K%, as well as his nearly league-average Bat Speed (71 mph) suggesting a potential hint of pop. But much like Jacob Young, most important is his strong defensive ratings helping secure some playing time. He can be Temu Jacob Young.

 

SELL

10-team

 

William Contreras (C, Milwaukee Brewers)

Look, I know you’re gonna hate me for this one. HE WAS THE TOP OVERALL CATCHER! In many leagues, a second-rounder. But hey, I didn’t draft him at that price, not even once. But why consider cutting him? Well think about your greatest physical achievement. Play a piano concerto? Hit the winning shot in a high-school pick-up game? Okay, great, now try to imagine doing that with a broken finger. Every day. Oh and also this finger is having to catch balls usually flying towards it 90-100 mph about 120-150 times a day while it should be healing.

Long way of saying, it’s come out that he’s been playing through a broken middle finger on his catching hand, and intends to keep playing through it… and the team is just fine with that, apparently? I personally think it’s a stupid tough-guy show that can risk ruining your franchise’s #2 star player. The numbers don’t lie. His exit velocity is down 3 mph. His barrel rate is also 3, just 3%. He’s having trouble lifting the ball in the air, hmm maybe it’s related to the lead hand in his swing? Whereas I can look at Yainer Diaz or Salvador Perez and identify issues but use logic to deduce that time will even itself out, I just can’t do that with a player that is not recovering from injury, but rather re-injuring himself a little every day. On the bright side, he does have a career-high walk rate! Hmm, maybe because with a broken finger, he’d really rather not swing!

Could I be laughably wrong? Absolutely. Baseball players are crazy and there is no shortage of stories of players achieving great feats through pain (though more often as a short-term adrenaline-fueled thing). But in a 10-team league, there are 9 catchers I would rather play it safe with (including his older brother, who is heating up) and take the guaranteed solid production over the chance of a star but pretty good odds of more of… this. I’d cut in 10-team AVG leagues, but if you refuse to bail that early, I get it. But maybe check your wire first.

 

Nick Kurtz (1B, Oakland Athletics)

Hey, really sorry if you’re that guy who spent 90% of your season FAAB on Kurtz (that really did happen in a big money league… maybe was a typo?). But Kurtz has had trouble reigning in his high K%, which certainly isn’t helped by his passivity, with a sub-60% Z-Swing%. If Justin Mason is known for hating players with a Z-Contact% under 80%, I want to be the one who hates on hitters with a Z-Swing% under 60%. Because swinging at strikes is good, and letting them go for strikes is not good!

The fact that there wasn’t a natural opening for him, but surging hitters had to move off their position where they are challenged defensively means that the team may already be reconsidering whether or not this was such a good idea, since now they have worse defense without a gain in offense (arguably worse offense not just because of Kurtz hitting for no power and a BABIP-inflated .260 AVG, but because of the position switches distracting some of their strongest hitters from hitting). Sure, if you have bench room or keeper focused, go ahead and hold, but in redraft, holding a player who hasn’t helped and whose window to turn things around is rapidly shrinking might not be a great 10-team move.

 

12-team

 

Kyle Manzardo (1B, Cleveland Guardians)

Sure, the eight homers are nice, but the batting average is in freefall, and Statcast thinks he’s been lucky with an xBA under the Mendoza line. That .195 xBA is just 3rd percentile in the majors, and the .447 xSLG suggests he’s gotten a bit lucky on the power (actual SLG% of .477). It seems to me he has two main skills, hitting barrels and not chasing (leading to a solid walk rate). But outside of barrels, his power metrics such as HardHit%, average exit velocity, and bat speed are all below average. It’s odd that the worst rate stat is his LA Sweet Spot% which is just 28% (15th percentile), which makes me wonder how he ended up with barrels at all. First base is deep enough in 12-team that you’re playing fantasy on hard mode by sticking with him.

 

Matt Mervis (1B, Miami Marlins)

I hope you got in early and got out early, but let’s face it, we’re mostly reactive monkeys and probably picked him up just a week or two before the batting average started to crater just as everyone warned it would with his 40% K%, and the power stopped being worthwhile enough to stomach it. That’s okay, cut loose in all 12-teamers and 15-team leagues with a decent regularly playing alternative, because when Mervis’s numbers take a downward curve-is, say thank you for your service.

 

15-team

 

Evan Carter (OF, Texas Rangers)

Normally, getting called up from the minors after early struggles would be the perfect time for me to recommend someone as a buy, not sell! But I think Carter still gets more credit than deserved for a hot September at the end of 2023, but is still unlikely to help fantasy teams, and trading him now may be flipping him at the peak of his 2025 trade value.

The future is full of potential and possibilities, but the reality is that he didn’t even hit well in the minors, and was especially bad against lefties, a problem that he has yet to show any ability to solve in the major leagues. I also was down on him preseason 2024 just because the generous average power projections (dreaming of 20/20 and .290) were simply never backed by his mediocre exit velocity numbers and high whiff rates (in part due to a sub-60% Z-Swing%!). The departure of Taveras does open up some room, but I still think he’ll be platooned against lefties which already cuts into his value. Trade now before the rude Ranger reality sets in.

 

Joey Ortiz (SS/3B, Milwaukee Brewers)

I liked him last year because he seemed like a high-contact guy with surprisingly decent power to go with a bit of speed. This year, the power has all-but evaporated, with a terrible, horrible, no good 83 mph average exit velocity. Also. the contact rate isn’t high enough to get his batting average out of the gutter thanks to hitting everything with poor batted ball quality right into the ground. Sure, the expected stats indicate bad luck, and his xwOBA has been steadily rising, so maybe you should wait. I’m sure he’ll be better, but unless you just need stolen bases and don’t care about power, it’s a shorter way to Tipperary than the way for him to be suddenly must-add in 15-teamers again.

 

Deep Leagues

 

Kameron Misner (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)

Lately, rostering him has made me downright Misnerable. I really should end the writeup there. But I won’t. The overall line still looks pretty solid with a .271 AVG, 3 HR and 2 SB in 96 AB for the Rays, and still getting playing time semi-regularly. But Josh Lowe is returning soon and Jake Mangum might not be far behind, meaning his avenue to playing time is going to likely be cut short. And frankly he’ll deserve it, as his rolling 50 PA xWOBA has been such a downward slope I want to go skiing on it. This is why you shouldn’t hang your hat on strong expected stats in small samples, because they can change quickly, and it was probably always foolish to think that after serious strikeout problems in the minors including this year, that those issues would magically disappear thanks to a hot start in the majors. Trade now for anything if you can get anything for him, and I mean anything, not anything of significant value.

 

Brayan Rocchio (SS, Cleveland Guardians)

My least favorite hitter to watch hit since last year just keeps getting worse. And the fact I’m still watching him swing his balsa wood bat makes me wonder if I’m a masochist. His Statcast sliders are more blue than Eiffel 65. Not even the things you’d think a guy like him would be good at like Contact% or O-Swing%. How about Sprint Speed, I mean he’s a shortstop, right? Nope, just 35th percentile. Forget that he was a top prospect and recognize that any random minor leaguer in the Guardians’ Triple-A or Double-A affiliate could probably outhit him, and cut even in AL-only leagues even if the Guardians continue to shoot themselves in the foot “prioritizing defense” and playing essentially with a pitcher hitting ninth. If you’re rostering him even in the deepest of leagues, and yes I also mean 30-team dynasty leagues, you’ve really hit Rocc bottom.