Welcome back to Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is: and now, we wait. It’s one week until the trade deadline, and even though the baseball world was absolutely rocked by the Royals’ daring acquisition of Adam Frazier, there’s not so much new on the fantasy landscape, and in most FAAB leagues, the money has run dry as well as the prospect promotions. But if you can trade, there’s still always ways to upgrade, and you need to take your shots.
Also, I hope you took my recommendations last week to add, namely Kyle Stowers, Mickey Moniak, Royce Lewis, and Angel Martinez. That last one was probably huge for deep leaguers. Anyway, on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Zach Neto (SS, Los Angeles Angels)
Back in May I had called him a star before he then burned us all… I guess I should’ve read up on the word’s Netomology. After a month plus of being a non-factor. he’s turned it back on, hitting .311 with 3 HR and 5 SB over the past 3 weeks and .356 over the past two weeks. His rolling xwOBA is on a strong uptrend, and given his lengthy slump, and the fact he’s cooled off a bit this week, you might still be able to buy “low”on him from an owner still frustrated about the slump.
Salvador Perez (C, Kansas City Royals)
Salvador may have been cut, but if you were his waiver wire savior, he’s been handsomely rewarding the favor. Well, every year I make some bad calls, and calling him a 10-team drop back in June is looking like one of them. He’s is the hottest hitter in all of baseball over his last 50 PA with an absolutely bananas, and I mean, like Savannah Bananas, .608 rolling xwOBA over that span, a jump of .282 over his previous xwOBA. For reference, the next highest rolling 50 PA xwOBA among the Top 5 biggest improvers, Bryce Harper, has an xwOBA of .493 (and the other three are all below .410).
His underlying stats called his bad start very very unlucky from the very beginning, and look, sometimes holding waiting for the luck dragons to change doesn’t always pan out (see Brenton Doyle), but in this case, he is hitting with his hair on fire, and I think it’s entirely rational to use him as a 1B or DH because frankly I’d rather have his bat than most of them too.
Xander Bogaerts (2B/SS, San Diego Padres)
Xander seems to have crawled his way out of the bog. He’s relatively quietly improved steadily as the season has prattled on, with an improvement in his rolling xwOBA over 250 PA (.364), over 100 PA (.369), and over 50 PA (.388), which is no easy feat. The fact he only has 6 homers may scare some away still, but every single one of his peripherals looks better than last year, with his best strikeout (16%) rates, walk rates (11%) and the best HardHit (39%) since 2022. With his usual high-end run production and 16 stolen bases already, he’s very underrated for what he can contribute.
12-team
Ha-Seong Kim (SS, Tampa Bay Rays)
Add Kim while still possible. Shortstop is a deep position still, but the Brandon Lowe injury not only gives him more playing time security, it also makes it more likely that he will make enough appearances at the keystone to qualify soon, which would massively boost his value considering the wasteland of second base. Get in on the ground floor, y’all.
Although his overall line looks pretty weak with a .226/.314/.355 line with 1 HR and 4 SB in 35 PA, first remember that he’s clearly healthy and that his stolen base attempt rate is excellent so far. While his sample is too small, it’s encouraging that he’s hitting the ball much harder than normal (52% HardHit%), while also having an elite swinging strike rate (5%) suggests sneaky power upside, especially since he’s always been a high pulled flyball guy and while there’s fewer home games than most teams, he’ll still get some, as well as an AL-east full of hitter-friendly venues. He just needs to swing more, since his 51% is simply too passive and his 31% CSW% is poor due to all the strikes looking. He could bring speed but also surprising power, and the slow start makes this a perfect buying opportunity.
Ramon Laureano (OF, Baltimore Orioles)
He should be 12-team rostered all over, as he just keeps hitting in the heart of the lineup and driving in runs like it’s his job. I mean, it is, but still. He could get traded but I think he’s showed enough that he deserves regular playing time, especially as his defense is strong. Over the past two weeks, he’s hitting .314 with 3 HR, 1 SB, and 11 RBI in 35 AB, to bring him to a line of .279/.341/.520 with 13 HR and 4 SB in just 229 AB. I guess in OBP that may seem less special, but that’s basically last year’s Kerry Carpenter over a half season, no?
Honorable Mention: Jorge Polanco (2B/3B, Seattle Mariners) – He’s finally heated back up, and although he’s dealt with some nagging injury and platoons, Statcast still says he’s deserved to be a .290 hitter thanks in part to his surprising massively improved contact (14% K%)
Honorable Mention: Ryan McMahon (3B, Colorado Rockies) – Maybe you want to time it with the next Rockies homestand, but Mr. Consistently Okay actually is hitting the ball much harder this year (94 mph) and lifting the ball more, but the results just haven’t reacted in turn… at least not yet.
15-team
Caleb Durbin (2B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers)
He may not be around since he’s in that weird middle ground of being a bit too good to be available in most 15-teamers but too underwhelming to be considered in 12-teamers. But before you throw Durbin in the dustbin, consider that he’s hitting .317/.440/.463 with 1 HR and 3 SB in 41 AB over the past 3 weeks, and it seems he’s finally carved out regular playing time. I’ll admit that I did expect a lot more stolen base aggressiveness, and perhaps the fact that he’s been caught in 4 of his 13 attempts (69% SB Success%) is below the threshold. But despite the lack of power (and unlike Kim above, his exit velocities make clear he is quite lacking in power), he is at least being scrappy by drawing more walks than strikeouts (7 to 5) over the past 3 weeks. I think that makes for a sneaky OBP play in 12-team AVG but still a fairly easy add or trade buy-low in 15-teamers.
Brice Matthews (2B/SS/3B, Houston Astros)
With his recent power surge and more consistent playing time, it seems from here on out, Brice may out-earn B. Rice. His three homers over the past few days likely drove up a lot of hype for him, and his average exit velocity being over 100 mph was some fun small sample ridiculousness, not to mention the barrel rate. But his high power/high speed/high K approach reminds me a lot of another player you may remember: Rece Hinds. Now granted, Matthews is actually the team’s #1 prospect, but in the early going, that contact ability will not go softly into the night. It’s a 70% Z-Contact% and a 55% overall Contact%. Now if you’re a team low in the standings that needs lightning in a bottle, sure, why not, but the bust odds are very high so don’t drop a 12-team caliber player for him, and don’t cling too long if that contact rate doesn’t climb as he adjusts. But also, he is fast and also very patient, so he can still get stolen bases thanks to walks.
Honorable Mention: Brady House (3B, Washington Nationals) – He’s a bit of an odd duck as he has a .312 xBA and a 17% SwStr%, but he swings at most strikes and I expect more power coming.
Honorable Mention: Otto Kemp (3B, Philadelphia Phillies) – He had eye-popping numbers in the minors but has been ho-hum in the majors. But Bohm’s injury buys him time, and he’s continued to sting the ball (46% HardHit%, 11% Barrel) with a contact (71%) that’s actually higher than it was in the minors.
Deep Leagues
John Rave (OF, Kansas City Royals)
Someone finally turned on Rave’s glowstick. After laying an egg for over 60 AB, the Royals, thanks to their horrendous outfield depth, stuck with him, and suddenly he’s hitting .385 with 3 dingers this week and a stolen base. Even though the season .210 AVG is ugly, 3 HR and 5 SB in 81 AB is a power/speed combo you rarely find in AL-only. He did hit a fantastic .301 with 9 HR and 17 SB in 173 AB in Triple-A this year (139 wRC+), so don’t let the fact that he’s 27 scare you away. He’s still sitting out there in my 30-team dynasty leagues and I’m taking the shot.
Henry Davis (C, Pittsburgh Pirates)
In case you were upset by my last recommendation being some one barely above the Mendoza line, don’t worry, here’s someone barely below the Mendoza line. I like symmetry! Former #1 pick Henry Davis is hitting just .184 with 4 homers, and given the fact that he didn’t take advantage of the opportunity when Joey Bart was out, his time is up. But here’s the thing: Sure, he’s scuffled a bit, but Bart is in free fall, and has just struck out in more than half of his at-bats the past 3 weeks (with 5 Ks in his last 7 PA). In two of my 30-team Dynasty Formats, Davis is on the wire untouched. And Davis is still doing lots of things fairly decently, with a strong 25% CSW% and a career-best 9% Barrel%, with a .240 AVG seeming more reasonable. It’s not pretty, but in deep two-catcher formats, he’s your unflavored oatmeal that will keep you going.
SELL
10-team
Marcell Ozuna (DH, Atlanta Braves)
Ironically, the reason I drafted him often and am suffering as a result was thanks to MARCEL. Turns out two great years doesn’t mean a guaranteed third great one, and he’s fighting a battle on two fronts now. Not only is he clearly still fighting some pain as he’s been benched several times to recover, but both Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin have been so good at the plate that the Braves realized, correctly, that they’re actually more potent with both catchers in the lineup and one usurping Ozuna at DH.
Here is one guy who I’m guilty of holding too long even when I got offers, hoping the strong expected stats would turn around, but time ran out… and also since the news of the hip problem, both the actual and expected performance hit a tailspin. The talent still seems to be there, but with the lack of reliable playing time, he’s droppable in all 10-teamers and 12-team AVG formats for now until something changes.
Dishonorable Mention: Alejandro Kirk (C, Toronto Blue Jays) – Like Charlie Brown and Lucy’s football, I charged at him after a summer power surge that had me land flat on my back. Look, if you need AVG at the position, he’s your guy still, but in a year this stocked at catcher, you can probably do better overall.
Dishonorable Mention: Jacob Wilson (SS, Athletics) – His season batting average is still comfortable at .315 with 10 homers, but that hides the fact that actually his batting average has been in free fall over the past month or so. He doesn’t have quite enough power or speed to be 10-team viable without that average, since his power and speed also hinged on making lots of contact. You can probably find better on your wire given the position’s depth, especially in OBP.
12-team
William Contreras (C, Milwaukee Brewers)
I sure angered a lot of people (and mildly displeased some) when I warned that, although I am not a doctor, it seems hitting and catching hard pitches every day while having a broken finger could hurt production. He had 5 homers when I wrote that about a month ago. Now he has 6. Nary a homer in the past 3 weeks. Look, I warned you then that folks were generally optimists thinking that he was a “buy low” and so you could probably trade him and recoup 90% of his trade value, making it the wise move. That window has closed, and while he can still turn it around, if you still have the likes of Murphy and Baldwin floating around your wire, it’s probably time to cut your losses and make the switch.
Jurickson Profar (OF, Atlanta Braves)
They say with PEDs that it’s not like stopping taking it just zaps the muscles you’ve built with it. But with Profar’s wiry build, I’m starting to worry he lost it as fast as I lose a Florida vacation tan. Although he arrived the first week like gangbusters, it’s starting to seem like he’s already regressing to the Profar of old. His 87 mph EV and 34% HardHit% are right in line with his disappointing 2023 season and far from the 91 mph EV and 44% HardHit% of 2024. Sure, the sample is still small, but I think his hot start anchors his trade value closer to last year’s Profar, making it a good time to take offers.
Dishonorable Mention: Gavin Sheets (1B/OF, San Diego Padres) –He’s quietly been backsliding, and only has one homer over the past three weeks… and only two RBI. In three weeks. Ick.
15-team
Jake Mangum (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
I have to give credit to Mangum for upending everyone’s expectations and still being around despite being a near-complete unknown, and still almost hitting .300. The combination of strong defense with a high contact rate and decent speed has helped him find value, but playing time could get more scarce with Jonny Deluca set to return. The silent killer of his value is a dearth of run production, with just 25 R and 28 RBI on the season.
Dishonorable Mention: Wilmer Flores (1B, San Francisco Giants) – Not enough pop (try to ignore the early season numbers( to be viable as a first baseman with no other eligibilities.
Deep Leagues
Ernie Clement (2B/3B/SS, Toronto Blue Jays)
When you’re rostering a player whose sole value is batting average, you really want an xBA better than .257. He had his hot run, but now he’s even more frigid than in April, so drop him like he’s cold.
Christopher Morel (2B/3B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
It should be a war crime for a major league team to give a trade acquisition 5 plate appearances a week regardless of performance, and for all the fantasy leaguers still inexplicably rostering him, you’re accessories to that crime.
