Hey everyone, welcome back to Buy & Sell! Everyone’s talking about one big splash that I feel like would be a crime not to write about at least a little bit here, but man, has it been getting tough in a lot of leagues. I have a lot of teams simply slogging, though I still have one Draft Champions team in 1st to get my hopes back up. And hey, at least Maikel Garcia and Oneil Cruz coming back will help out some lineups. Just remember, even though it’s emotionally exhausting at this point, try to still set your lineups and don’t let your guard down, and if you do, you still can gain ground. But you also really need to know what categories you need. You might need to be willing to make some weird moves that would look insane in May. So what? We play to win, not to be understood. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Joshua Baez (OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
We all say the 3-homer game. He hasn’t done much since. But still, he’s likely rostered in any format where people are paying attention. But in casual leagues, you may as well check, since it’s mid-August and some leagues have managers that have already checked out. If you haven’t hit your trade deadline, you can still try to buy now that his AVG is .143, and most teams missed his big debut game. It wasn’t a fluke; he’s still awesome, and the average will rebound.
Ivan Herrera (C, St. Louis Cardinals)
I’ve made this mistake a few times this year, where a talented hitter has an extended horrible stretch where they look positively broken… and then bounce right back like it was a frantic hospital trip with your baby only to find out they just had gas. Herrera’s xwOBA is now among the biggest improvers (+.122 puts him 4th biggest 100 PA rolling xwOBA change in MLB) and is still looking solid, hitting .246 with 14 homers and 7 SB on the year. With the rising Baez tide lifting all boats, I wouldn’t be shocked for him to still reach 19 homers like last year with 10 SB. Now that he’s catcher-eligible, he’s J.T. Realmutated.
Abimelec Ortiz (1B, Washington Nationals)
He’s been hammering the ball like he’s swinging a giant Abimallet. He’s worked his way up to the top (I wrote him up last week as a 15-team add, following being a deep league add) by being one of the hottest hitters, hitting .333 with 3 homers this week to bring himself up to 5 homers and a .300 AVG in just 40 AB. Is it sustainable? Probably not! Does that really matter with 6 weeks left in the season? Not really! And some positive indicators are his 116 MaxEV in Triple-A, signifying the huge ceiling, and his expected stats (tiny sample alert!) of .292 xBA and .691 xSLG, suggesting that while he’s locked in, he hasn’t been unlucky. Who’dathunk dealing Luis Garcia Jr. would be a net gain for the still-stacked Nationals’ offense? (Also, like, poor Curtis Mead.)
Honorable Mention: Caleb Durbin (2B/3B, Boston Red Sox) – I’ll admit, I really thought the “Aaron Judge’s hitting coach” was the new “Torpedo Bats” and called him a sell-high, but he’s just kept hitting, and in particular has been on fire for batting average, raising his AVG all the way from sub-Mendoza line to .257 with solid power/speed.
12-team
Jacob Young (OF, Washington Nationals)
He’s been slowly climbing the launch angle rungs like Jacob’s ladder. I’ve been intrigued by him ever since he showed improved bat speed and a new power-focused approach to get him out of the slappy Mangum style. Some injuries messed with his momentum, but now he’s healthy and surging with a .127 point improvement in his xwOBA to .393 over his past 100 PA. That’s the 3rd biggest improver in 100 PA xwOBA just above of Ivan Herrera. His MaxEV of 110 mph shows he’s no longer punchless, and he’s actually been very good at LA Sweet Spot (76th percentile) with an 11-degree launch angle (still a bit low, but it was 1 degree last year). His PullAir% is a league-average 15%, but that’s a HUGE improvement from just 5% last year, and it matters because he makes lots of contact.
The most encouraging thing about him is that, unlike most players whose strikeout rate spikes when aiming to increase launch angle (Yonder Alonso being the poster child), he’s actually managed to bring his K rate slightly down, as his 17% is a career best. Granted, his Whiff% is worse, but I think this is also a planned change as he’s been more aggressive, which I actually like for him (passive hitters are overrated in fantasy). The one frustration is that he hasn’t been as aggressive on the basepaths, with just 13 SB this year after 33 SB in 2024. Then again, his sprint speed, while still elite at 93rd percentile, is down from his 97th percentile mark back then. But what is most important is he’s going to keep playing with his elite defense. He’s basically Jackson Merrill Lite if you’re an optimist.
Alec Bohm (3B, Philadelphia Phillies)
Don’t look now, but the Bohm trainwreck of the first half is now hitting a cromulent .244 with 14 homers. It was easy to miss since it still came in fits and starts, but he’s now hitting .338 over the past 3 weeks and .500 over the past week with a homer. I still don’t think he’s an all-formats must-add, but if you need batting average at the hot corner, don’t ignore him just because of his April-May.
Trent Grisham (OF, New York Yankees)
See, this is why you gotta stick with your guns sometimes even when you look crazy. 5 homers over the past 2 weeks, and suddenly he’s up to 17 homers which makes him look a lot closer to his preseason projections. He is at some risk of reduced playing time when the Yankees’ injured outfielders return, with Spencer Jones also hitting hot, but I’d stay the course if you have him or buy back in while his season stats still look rather drab.
Lawrence Butler (OF, Athletics)
He has 4 homers this week! That’s probably enough to scoop him up everywhere, right? Eh, sure. I mean he has a .349 rolling xwOBA over his past 100 PA, a big improvement over what he did before. And odds are that while healthy, he’ll keep playing for a team very out of contention now, since they already extended him, so they may as well let him get his reps in.
15-team
Jonny DeLuca (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
Nothing about his profile screams “buy now,” but you can’t judge a hitter by Jonny DeLookof his production. He’s hitting a hearty .265 with 8 homers in 14 SB, which is more impressive when you consider that he’s done this in only 238 AB (78 games). That’s been due to being constantly jostled around the lineup this year, but he’s earned his keep with 44 AB over the past 3 weeks. There’s not really anything in his expected or rolling stats to say he’s surging, but more just like, “Hey, I mostly missed this guy earlier and he’s good and playing more”.
Rafael Flores (C/1B, Pittsburgh Pirates)
Well, I really tried to add him in deep leagues BEFORE he ruined it with 3 homers in a week, like a jerk. He’s now hitting .283 with 4 homers, which is enough to get the attention of most people who play in two-catcher leagues, especially with Endy down for the count and no better option at the position all season. He wasn’t so highly rated as a prospect, but he’s showing very intriguing 74 mph bat speed and a fantastic 17% Barrel%. He could be the next Abimelec where, if he keeps hitting like this, you need to seriously consider dropping bigger-name catchers for him. Would I drop Cal Raleigh for him? Well, I’d at least say given it’s August 19th, it’s absolutely defensible.
Honorable Mention: Ezequiel Tovar (SS, Colorado Rockies) – He’s been cut in many formats, and there were very good reasons for it, but I think it’s at least interesting that he’s been less bad lately, given he still plays for Colorado, and in some leagues Shortstop is very thin. More of a long-shot gamble, though. That said, I might rather take a stab at Adael Amador if I believed he’d play regularly. When in doubt, try Rockies hitters, right?
Deep Leagues
Ryan Vilade (1B/2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
Vilade-dade, Rays like to party; they don’t have regulars, they platoon and cobble everybody. Vilade’s been on another performance spurt as he’s hit .500 with 2 homers this week. The problem? It’s only been in 8 AB. He’s kind of like Overwatch’s Genji of deep league players in that he can be really good if you know how to play him and maddening otherwise. But the power/speed might make it worth the gamble.
Brett Callahan (OF, Detroit Tigers)
I love this dude, mostly because I added him in my deep formats even though he was such a nobody I couldn’t find him on a prospect list and didn’t even get a Rotoworld blurb upon his call-up (Yes, I’m calling it Rotoworld still, so sue me). He has speed, and he has a good 111 mph MaxEV, and his 90% Z-Contact% indicates he’s here to make contact and take names. This is the year of Tigers organizational depth; nobodies saving the day, is it not?
Honorable Mention: Charles McAdoo (2B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays) – I’ll write him up due to his play, but this may be McAdoo about nothing. Not so jazzed by him, but he has enough pop, and he bats leadoff sometimes; you could do worse at the hot corner in deep leagues.
SELL
10-team
Corey Seager (SS, Texas Rangers)
When it comes to Seager, it might be time to Turn the Page. I know he’s been hitting .313 this week, so of course he’s fixed and going to pay back our patience in triplicate, right? Well, I’m not so sure. It’s true he has hit better lately, with a .346 xwOBA over his past 50 PA and a .330 xwOBA over his past 100 PA, which isn’t so bad. But it’s not so good either. And remember, this is a shortstop with no speed… and he’s hitting .203 with 12 homers in 236 AB. Like, what are you counting on him for? Batting average? He’s brought it lately, but far from a guarantee. Power? Sure, he’s barreled the ball well, but with an awful 5th percentile Whiff%, it’s not a large quantity of contact, and he still plays at a tough hitter’s park. But also, the runs. He has just 37 Runs scored and 30 RBI this season, and that’s just not working in a 10-team. And on a depleted roster, I don’t really see that changing much. Cut in 10-team AVG leagues if you can’t trade him.
Nasim Nunez (2B/SS, Washington Nationals)
If you don’t have an Nunez State of Mind, you might really want to question if you want NASim. His hot run has flipped in the other direction, and while 40 homers is excellent, the pace has slowed down, with no SB in the past 2 weeks, which makes him look exposed for who he really is. A .226 AVG and 1 HR in 359 AB really comes with heavy opportunity cost. I’ll admit I erred in overvaluing him in a 7×7, since that’s 6 categories instead of 4 where he’s doing damage. I’d much rather take a stab on Lombard Jr. or Genao for a more well-balanced profile.
12-team
Cal Raleigh (C, Seattle Mariners)
Last time he was on the list, I translated his name to Arabic, but I realized in Hebrew his name translates to “Cal is bad to me”. Yeah, we’ve taken the elevator another level down. I do hope you took my advice and dealt him when he still had depreciated but still solid trade value. For those few leagues in which a trade deadline hasn’t passed, this may be simply a keep/cut situation. He’s hit just .118 with 1 homer over the past two weeks, and while he did hit another 2 homers a few weeks ago, it’s August 19th, he has 330 AB, and he’s hit 13 homers. With a .158 AVG. What a disaster. I’ve still held him on my bench in a 14-teamer, and I’m only holding him because I have room on my bench and not in contention.
Dishonorable Mention: Jacob Wilson (SS, Athletics) – Maybe I should call him Tim Allen’s neighbor, because we know he’s wise, but we never see over the fence. And thanks to Sacre Verde, I was banking too heavily on Home Improvement. I got too excited after one hot week that the Jacob Wilson of last year was back. But I think I’d rather have the production of Jacob Young going forward. He’s hit just .226 with no homers and 5 RBI over the past 3 weeks and just .143 this week. This is why you have to be careful with “empty” batting average guys. Also a must-drop in 12-team OBP formats.
Dishonorable Mention: Jackson Holliday (2B/SS, Baltimore Orioles) – Call Ben Folds, because it’s time to send him off to the Jackson Cannery. Forget the prospect hype, in 213 AB he has just 6 HR and 6 SB with a .244 AVG. I think he’s honestly a drop also in 12-team AVG leagues, as he’s been below-average in every under-the-hood metric aside from trying to draw walks. You haven’t done Jack, son.
15-team
Keibert Ruiz (C, Washington Nationals)
He didn’t lose the position as much as he didn’t do enough to win it. Harry Ford, despite having a pretty lousy season in the minors, has been decent enough since his call-up, and the fact that Ruiz wasn’t even getting the regular PT it seemed he deserved when he heated up in June signals that the Nationals are ready to relegate him to a part-time mentor role. And even though he had a .275 AVG and 7 HR, his awful 6th percentile xwOBA suggests this may have been wise.
Dishonorable Mention: Hector Rodriguez (OF, Cincinnati Reds) – I still love him in the long-term, so I hope this brings down his price in DCs next year, but, like, WOW this has not been good. Shades of Domingo Santana’s debut, with an .097 AVG. To Hec with you.
Dishonorable Mention: Wade Meckler (OF, Los Angeles Angels) – He briefly regained our attention after a hot week raised his batting average over .300. But it came with no power or speed, and since then, Meckler has gone back to, well… Meckling.
Deep Leagues
John Rave (OF, Kansas City Royals)
The cops are here, the Rave is shut down. He’s hit just .043 over 23 ABs over the past two weeks, and while he still has intriguing bat speed and foot speed, I do worry that he’s crashing and losing enough playing time already to be able to get many more chances swinging the glowstick.
Jose Tena (2B/3B, Washington Nationals)
Given the fact that he’s 25 and does have some interesting peripherals, you’d think that a Nationals roster without both Mead and Garcia Jr. would finally let him play. But I hadn’t realized that his fielding is actually quite poor. Do you know what that means? He has Jose Tenacious D.
And with that, I’m out. See ya next week.
