Edwin Díaz has been removed from the closer role temporarily as the team tries to get him some more confidence moving forward. Long story short, Díaz has been dealing with some awful luck the past month or so a he’s allowed 11 runs (10 ER) over his past 10.1 IP. Over that time, Díaz has a 25.5% strikeout-minus-walk rate and a 2.39 SIERA. In fact, his strikeout rate, strikeout-minus-walk rate, SIERA, xFIP, swinging-strike, and Chase rates are all top ten amongst closers over this span, while his BABIP is 2nd highest behind only Jason Foley at .375. Now this is definitely an issue, I guess we can call it an issue with Díaz, as he in general tends to run high BABIP’s (.313 for his career) so it’s hard to say definitively that the BABIP problem will turn around. However, I’m still confident enough in the other metrics (35.1% strikeout and 18.5% swinging-strike rates) that Díaz will be able to turn things around and just needs a shot of confidence to get back to being the dominant closer we are used to seeing. For the time being, Reed Garrett and Adam Ottavino figure to see the bulk of save chances for the Mets, with both being worth a look in deeper leagues but it’s very likely just a short term answer as I’d expect Díaz back in the closer role at some point in June.
Notes
- Craig Kimbrel is back in the closer role for the Orioles, and honestly I’m not even sure he really ever left. He’s been great over his past four outings, not allowing a hit or walk while striking out 6. The command may come and go as the season moves along but as long as he is this teams closer and is able to figure things out quickly like he did here, he should be a valuable closer option in all formats.
- Jason Foley has bounced back nicely after temporarily being out as the closer although he still only has one save since April 28th. His last two outings have been smooth, as he has three strikeouts while not allowing a baserunner, although the caveat here is that both came against the Marlins (who somehow got to Trevor Megill last night?). Also a bit interesting here, is that those outings came a week ago, as he has not pitched since last Tuesday although there is no talk of a potential injury. I’d take a shot on him long term over Kirby Yates though, who has an 18.8% BB rate, 4.51 SIERA, and 89 Stuff+ over his past 7.1 innings pitched.
- Since April 1st, Kenley Jansen holds a 15.6% strikeout-minus-walk, 11% swinging-strike, and 28% CSW rates to go along with a 1.36 WHIP and 4.14 xFIP. Those numbers aren’t exactly terrible, but I wonder if we are at the point in Jansen’s career where this is just the norm and he’s just a below average closer in the Kyle Finnegan/Carlos Estévez realm. He used the have poor stretches like this in the past, but there were always signs pointing to a rebound and he always eventually would. This seems different, as his velo is down (-2 MPH from 2023) and his stuff just isn’t what it used to be (5.02 PLV) as he is almost exclusively throwing his cutter (92%). The pitch usage and velo are actually almost identical to his 2012 season. where he was excellent, but two things are different; the walk rate and hitters have adjusted over the past 12 years.
- José Alvarado is still sharing saves with Jeff Hoffman but I still am encouraged by how he is trending after his disastrous first outing. The swing and miss is still lacking but since that first outing, Alvarado has managed a 24.6% strikeout rate, 0.80 WHIP, and 3.19 SIERA over 18.2 innings pitched. He has eight saves and three holds over that span, to Hoffman’s three saves and five holds so it’s still quite clear who the preferred closer option in Philly is.
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Watch List
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Edwin Díaz | NYM | will be back in closer role eventually |
| 2. | Jeff Hoffman | PHI | likely 2nd in line for saves in committee |
| 3. | Hunter Harvey | WAS | Way better than Finnegan skills wise |
| 4. | Fernando Cruz | CIN | shaky lately, but best RP in that bullpen |
| 5. | Mark Leiter Jr. | CHC | Better than Neris, but less experience |
| 6. | Griffin Jax | MIN | Apparently Duran won’t see every save |
| 7. | A.J. Puk | MIA | back in the pen where he excels |
| 8. | David Robertson | TEX | overall has pitched better than Yates |
| 9. | Yimi García | TOR | Romano is not looking like himself |
| 10. | Jeremiah Estrada | SD | could see saves if Suarez is HLR guy |
| Rank | Pitcher | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmanuel ClaseT1 | - |
| 2 | Ryan Helsley | - |
| 3 | Josh Hader | +3 |
| 4 | Mason Miller | - |
| 5 | Pete FairbanksT2 | +2 |
| 6 | Andrés Muñoz | +2 |
| 7 | Jhoan Duran | -2 |
| 8 | Camilo Doval | +2 |
| 9 | Clay HolmesT3 | - |
| 10 | David Bednar | +1 |
| 11 | James McArthur | +1 |
| 12 | Robert Suarez | +1 |
| 13 | Paul SewaldT4 | +3 |
| 14 | Raisel Iglesias | - |
| 15 | Jordan Romano | - |
| 16 | Craig Kimbrel | +7 |
| 17 | Trevor MegillT5 | - |
| 18 | Tanner Scott | +1 |
| 19 | José Alvarado | +3 |
| 20 | Jason Foley | +6 |
| 21 | Kirby YatesT6 | -1 |
| 22 | Kenley Jansen | -4 |
| 23 | Michael Kopech | -2 |
| 24 | Kyle Finnegan | - |
| 25 | Carlos Estévez | - |
| 26 | Reed GarrettT7 | +UR |
| 27 | Héctor Neris | +2 |
| 28 | Alexis Díaz | -1 |
| 29 | Daniel Hudson | -1 |
| 30 | Jalen Beeks | - |