DraftKings/FanDuel – Main slate (7 games) – starts 7:10 PM EDT.
Wind blowing out to left for COL@BOS.
No rain expected.
On a slate like this, taking a chance on Luke Weaver might be the better upside play. He’s not going to see much ownership, KC is still KC (and currently without Pasquatch), and the wind is blowing into home plate. His K rate vs Ls should match up well vs a lineup of mostly L bats.
The most popular bats by far will be TB, but starting with BOS should be the better approach. Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, and Reese McGuire are the best Ls for all formats, and adding Alex Verdugo or Masataka Yoshida for tournaments would be a solid play.
If you want to stack this game for tournaments, consider adding Randal Grichuk, Ezequiel Tovar, or the recent call-up Coco Montes as potential chalk busters vs Paxton. All three have spray charts out towards the monster where the wind will be blowing at Fenway.
Don’t look now, but the As just swept their first series of the season vs the Brewers on the road! Unfortunately, now they have to play the Rays. The Rays are slightly worse on the road, but they should handle the As, especially if they’re feeling a little overconfident returning home. Randy Arozarena will likely be one of the more chalky bats on the slate, along with Luke Raley. Jose Siri is one TB bat that you can use that will likely be under-owned – it’s hard to tell when he’s going to pop, but the As aren’t the kind of team that can take advantage of his tendencies to strike out.
The Phillies saw Tommy Henry about 3 weeks ago and had some success – Kyle Schwarber & Bryson Stott both had L-on-L HRs against him – and Schwarber is still a good play at Chase Field. Trea Turner also seems to have found some momentum lately (especially vs Ls), and Alec Bohm is back from the IL. Finally, if you need a deep-value bat, Dalton Guthrie has a lot of upside for his min price.
The Rangers have lost 3 of their last 4, but the Rays at home are tough – facing the Angels at home should get them back on track. Corey Seager is always underrated in L-on-L matchups, and Robbie Grossman really thrives vs Ls. Jonah Heim also seems to be getting back on track.
Another stack that may be overlooked and plays well with Logan Webb is SF. Austin Slater is always a risk of being swapped out later if a bullpen R comes in, but if he leads off, he’s a solid play in cash. J.D. Davis is also a solid play in all formats. A wrap-around stack featuring Casey Schmitt, Patrick Bailey, and Brandon Crawford (if he’s in the lineup) would also be a strong tournament play.
As a final note, it’s Zack Greinke vs Elly De La Cruz. Greinke gives up barrel hits to Ls at one of the higher rates on the slate – or Elly could steal a base or two. Kauffman Stadium is a park that may be stingy for HRs but can give up doubles & triples which fits him perfectly.