DFS Plays of the Day – 6/17/23

Optimal DFS plays for DK & FD for Sat Jun 17

Slate Details

DraftKings – Early slate (9 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Main slate (4 games) – starts 7:15 PM EDT.

FanDuel – Main slate (9 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Late slate (4 games) – starts 7:15 PM EDT.

As feared, NYY@BOS PPD – that makes the 7:15pm slate a 3-game slate.  Basic thoughts at the end of the article.

Weather Impact

4 PM slate:

PIT@MIL (best hitting conditions of the slate) & CIN@HOU are good games for HR production – even more so if the roofs are open.

DET@MIN, LAA@KC, & PHI@OAK are good games for XBH potential.

Light wind blowing in for BAL@CHC.

Decent cross breeze left-to-right and slightly in for STL@NYM favoring pitchers.

Rain expected for LAA@KC.

7 PM slate:

Winds blowing in and a little colder than normal for NYY@BOS, but still considered the best overall game for run production.

Wind blowing out for SF@LAD and expected to be the best bet for HRs.

CLE@ARI is a good game for XBH potential.


Pitching (4PM)

PLV Pitching Jun 17 23 (4PM)

There are two solid pitching options for this slate and one conditionally good option, and they’re all facing opponents that you can probably choose any of them and be happy with the result.

Kodai Senga is probably the top option by a small margin, given it’s vs STL at home and the pitching conditions are in his favor.  His K rate vs Ls is down a bit, but the majority of contact he’s allowing to both sides of the plate is GB-based. For the most part, his home starts have been good and there aren’t many warning signs with STL currently dealing with a six-game losing streak.

Mitch Keller is a close second, but make sure to check the status of the roof before game time. Conditions are expected to be highly favorable for HR hitting, and Keller’s recent stats suggest he’s getting back to being a primarily GB pitcher with minimal barrel hits. The key will be not repeating what Hill did last night and allowing too many walks – when Keller does walk batters, it’s mainly Ls and MIL isn’t expected to have more than three in the lineup.

Lucas Giolito, can you be trusted? He’s had back-to-back solid starts vs NYY & MIA and his stats vs Ls are all trending favorably. The key is whether he can limit walks- prior to his last start, he walked 12 batters in three starts. SEA bats have gone a little quiet in the past two games and with the exception of last night, Julio Rodríguez has been very ineffective vs Rs in the past week.

In the next tier, there are two pitchers that will likely see a fair amount of rostership but may warrant more caution than expected.

Logan Gilbert may be competing with José Berríos to be the most polarizing pitcher from start to start. He gets the White Sox at home where he’s been a little better, and Woo dealt nine Ks to them last night. He’s going to give up a couple of ERs – more than likely to Rs – which is the concern, as the White Sox has a lineup with a majority of R bats. As noted with Giolito though, if he walks too many batters and SEA gets a bit of a cushion, Gilbert could take over. It feels like a coin flip but one possibly worth a play in tournaments.

The last time Braxton Garrett was a popular DFS play, he got blown up a bit vs KC with four ERs and six Ks. Now he goes to Washington to face the Nats. Garrett’s major appeal is his K rate, but the Nats just don’t strike out as much as you hope they will. Add in the fact that his PLV rating vs Rs is on the decline, and this feels like a trap – but he’ll see some rostership just because it’s the Nats.

The last option is a risk/reward play – Hunter Greene vs HOU. His K rates are up, and HOU can’t seem to hit anybody lately. Greene’s weakness currently is power Ls and the Astros are currently missing their top L bat. If he can limit the damage from Kyle Tucker, the rest of the lineup might not pose much of a threat (the roof will likely be closed due to storms in the area). CIN also should manage run support for Greene as Brandon Bielak is heading in all the wrong directions.

Let’s just pretend there isn’t a $10K Bryce Elder on the slate. If he hits value, great – but more than likely, the ceiling just isn’t there.

Pitcher Pricing Jun 17 23 (4PM)

Batting (4PM)

PIT@MIL is the best hitting environment on the slate, and stacking PIT bats vs Wade Miley feels like a safe bet. Miley has been on IL for the past month with strained ribs which sounds like a painful injury for a pitcher to have long-term. He had a solid rehab start in Double-A last weekend (five IP, zero ER) but PIT is a dangerous team vs Ls. Rodolfo CastroConnor Joe are the typical go-to bats vs Ls, but you can also add Carlos SantanaKe’Bryan Hayes in a full stack if you want to overload on this game. Andrew McCutchen might be the chalky bat in cash, but the middle of the lineup offers the most value & upside.

Brandon Bielak has allowed three or more ERs in his last two starts, along with three HRs. If there is ever a pitcher for Elly De La Cruz to recalibrate against, this is it. He’s had two days off since his last start and teams have had plenty of success stealing vs Bielak this season. The Astros have also been using Martín MaldonadoYainer Diaz a lot recently, so this may mean César Salazar has to be the primary catcher and could be tested early and often by Reds base runners. Jonathan India is still the SB leader for the team, but Stuart Fairchild (if he’s back in the lineup) and Spencer Steer also have at least six SBs apiece. Lastly, Luke Maile is a value catcher worth plugging into your lineup if he’s in, as he has the best ISO & OBP of the team vs R in the past week.

ATL continues to be hot as a team, scoring eight runs in each of their last two games vs the Rockies, and at least five or more in all games in the past week. Versus Rs, Michael Harris II & Eddie Rosario are both raking lately and are excellent value plays. Ronald Acuña Jr.Travis d’Arnaud are also excellent options as Connor Seabold tends to be slightly more susceptible to Rs than Ls.

Assuming the rain isn’t a major concern, the Angels are in a nice spot vs Mike Mayers in KC. Shohei Ohtani has a two-week-long hit streak going, and Mickey Moniak has six hits in his last three games. Taylor WardMatt Thaiss are great options here too if you want to go with a full stack or need a value catcher.

MIA@WAS has some potential to be an underrated game stack, as Jake Irvin gives up a decent amount of hits per start, and Braxton Garrett may be overvalued as noted earlier. For the Nats, Lane ThomasStone Garrett continue to be solid plays vs Ls, and for MIA, Luis Arraez is heating up again. If you want to attack Irvin’s weakness vs hard contact from Rs, Jorge SolerGarrett Cooper are valid plays.

TOR hasn’t been a great team lately in terms of offense, but Dane Dunning may be what the doctor ordered. His K & GB rates are down vs Rs while his walk and hard contact rates are up vs Rs. There is no hotter R bat on TOR than Danny Jansen with three HRs in his last two games. Bo Bichette is also a bat to consider when you need a hard-hitting righty. If you want to try stacking TOR, you can do a wraparound stack from the bottom to the top of the lineup by adding Cavan BiggioGeorge Springer.

There’s no denying the Phillies are hot right now with wins in five of their last six games. The trio of Bryson StottJ.T. Realmuto, and Alec Bohm are leading the surge, and they make a nice stack as they have been put together in the middle of the lineup. James Kaprielian appears to be more vulnerable to reverse splits so Trea Turner is another R bat worth playing in this matchup.

Other one-offs:

Batter Pricing Jun 17 23 (4PM)

Pitching/Batting (7PM)

Now it’s a 3-game slate with 2 games with favorable hitting, and likely heavy chalk pitching with Bobby Miller.  The best bet may be to stack CLE@ARI and power bats from the Dodgers vs Alex Wood.  Wood may not go deep into the game coming off the back injury, so SF could be forced to go into the bullpen again after playing a ton of arms last night.

Since there is no cheap pitching, target any cheap bats with good matchups – David Fry & Amed Rosario from CLE, Miguel Rojas from LAD, & Jake McCarthy from ARI.  The wind is blowing out for SF@LAD and with the injuries to LAD, there should be plenty of cheap bats to pick from – build a stack around the bottom of the order including Rojas and wrap around to Mookie Betts (for multi-position eligibility) and then just fit in the gaps with whoever you can fit based on salary left over.

Justin Wainwright

Originally from the Midwest, but moved to Colorado almost 10 years ago for the sun & Red Rocks. My lifelong aspiration is to either build the perfect analytical simulation tool for MLB players & games or be the head writer for a hit TV show that changes the medium for the next generation. Unofficial president of the Bartolo Colon & Danny Trejo Fan Clubs

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