Slate Details
DK – Early slate (7 games) – starts at 12:10 p.m. EDT / Main slate (6 games) – starts at 7:05 p.m. EDT
FD – Early slate (7 games) – starts at 12:10 p.m. EDT / Main slate (7 games) – starts at 6:40 p.m. EDT
Weather Impact
There are some serious PPD concerns in the STL@WAS game and ATL@PHI has some delay concerns as well. Outside of that everyone else should be good to go.
Pitching
The Cincinnati Reds are winners of 10 games in a row and when a team is that hot you just have to ride the hot streak until it cools down. Luckily, today that means backing top prospect Andrew Abbott against Rockie Road.
He may not have the electric stuff that we are used to seeing from top prospects, but all the lefty has done since coming up to the Majors is get guys out as evidenced by his 0.00 ERA. I wouldn’t expect a ton of Ks but for a fairly cheap price, Abbott is one of the safer options on the board since you know he is going to get the Win bonus.
As hot as the Reds are, the Pirates are just as cold. Losers of their last 8 games, Pittsburgh faces Kyle Hendricks on Wednesday and I feel like the savvy veteran is not the type of pitcher that will help the Buccos offense get it together. Pittsburgh has scored just 2 runs in their last 4 games (astounding), which includes 3 shutouts.
Hendricks himself threw 8 shutout innings at San Francisco two starts ago, and followed it up with a solid outing against a tough Baltimore offense. Again, strikeouts aren’t going to be plentiful for Hendricks but I can see him going deep in this one and getting the W.
For me the top two options of the early slate are Kevin Gausman and Zac Gallen and it really comes down to preference for you on which one to take. Gausman might have the higher strikeout upside, but faces a bit of a tougher offense right now in Miami, who has also only struck out 19.8% of the time over the last two weeks.
Gallen hasn’t posted nearly as many double-digit strikeout games this year, but he did have one in April against the Brewers, who he will be facing today. Milwaukee has also struggled big time over the last two weeks and has a 28.6 K% in that span.
Both pitchers are on the road with fairly tough pitching opponents (Sandy Alcantara for Gausman and Julio Teheran for Gallen), but I really don’t think you can go wrong with either.
For the main slate, we start off with Luis Castillo going against the New York Yankees, owners of the worst wRC+ in baseball over the last two weeks. The shocking lack of offense from the Bronx Bombers can be attributed in part to injuries (no Aaron Judge hurts), but the lineup has some serious holes that can be exploited.
I mean Jake Bauers is leading off and the bottom three of Billy McKinney, Jose Trevino and Anthony Volpe isn’t scaring anyone. Castillo just continues to quietly be one of the best pitchers in baseball and has 10 K’s in 2 of his last 4 starts, making him an easy play here.
You’d think Sonny Gray would be the play in the BOS@MIN game, but you would be wrong. In his last two starts Gray has combined for just 9 innings with 8 hits and 6 walks. Not very inspiring numbers as gets set to face a Boston lineup that has scored 19 runs in the first two games of this series.
Garrett Whitlock on the other hand has gone 13 innings in his last two starts and given up just 3 ERs with 13 Ks to just 2 walks. The Twins do have some punch in their lineup but they also have been striking out at a league-leading 29.0% clip over the past two weeks and that should provide Whitlock with plenty of fantasy points to make him a great value tonight.
In my last recommendation of the night, we have another ace going against a typically formidable lineup gone soft. The Dodgers have scored just 5 runs total in their last 3 games and are in the bottom third of the league in wRC+ over the last two weeks. The depth that has been there in previous years just isn’t there right now and it puts a lot of pressure on the studs at the top of the lineup.
Shohei Ohtani has just been cruising along for the most part on the mound and if he can avoid the walks here can put up a great line. The benefit of guys like Castillo and Ohtani going against big names like New York and Los Angeles means that they might have low ownership, making them even better plays.
Hitting
Well you know where I’m going with the early stack today. The aforementioned Reds have amassed 20 HRs and 20 steals over the last two weeks and are an absolute fantasy juggernaut today against the Rockies’ Connor Seabold, who gave up 9 ERs in his last outing.
The thing with Cincinnati is it has been somebody different every night so you have to do a good job of picking and choosing your guys. Obviously the young guys like Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain are the sexy plays but TJ Friedl had himself a game last night and Jake Fraley has a very fantasy friendly game.
Joey Votto returned from the IL with a HR the other day and Jonathan India and Spencer Steer were holding the team down in the early part of the year before the reinforcements arrived. No matter who you choose, find a way to stack the Reds during the early slate.
For the late slate, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Cleveland Guardians have some serious blowup potential today against Paul Blackburn. José Ramírez is obviously the big play here, but the entire top of the lineup has been smashing lately. Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario and Josh Naylor are sneaky great plays on most days and although they have struggled this season, I like Andrés Giménez and Josh Bell as well.
Staying in the AL Central, the White Sox are finally getting their right-handed bats healthy and are in a great spot today against LHP Martín Pérez. Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert Jr., Jr. are always exciting guys to have in the lineup and Andrew Vaughn and Jake Burger have quietly been two of the better hitters on the team from the right side. Tim Anderson pinch hit last night and looks like he could be ready to start today, giving them another quality option from the right side.
Other bats worth mentioning:
- I don’t love either teams lineup, but the pitching matchup of Brady Singer vs. Matthew Boyd makes me want to roster a couple hitters in the KC@DET game. I specifically like the duo of Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez against Boyd and Zach McKinstry and Kerry Carpenter, who has been crushing the ball, against Singer.
- Despite being shutout on Tuesday, the Angels have been hitting the ball well of late and get most likely a bullpen game from the Dodgers. Ohtani cranked a HR the last time he was on the mound and I really like the way Taylor Ward and Brandon Drury have been swinging it. Also its never a bad idea to chase HRs, which you can most certainly do with Mike Trout and Hunter Renfroe.
- The Yankees might not be able to take advantage of their ballpark, but the Mariners certainly can against Jhony Brito. I can’t think of a better place than Yankee Stadium for Julio Rodríguez and Jarred Kelenic to showcase their power/combo.
Hitter Pricing 6-14-23