Slate Details
DraftKings/FanDuel – Main slate (6 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.
Weather Impact
Rain may impact CIN@BAL & MIL@NYM – make sure to check forecasts or watch the #dfs-and-bets channel in PitcherList’s discord for updates.
Most HR-friendly game is CIN@BAL (winds out to left-center), and it is the game expected to have the most hits/runs overall.
A close 2nd is MIL@NYM (winds out to left-center).
Hot with winds out to left for MIN@ATL.
Mild winds straight out to center for CWS@LAA.
Most pitcher-friendly game could be DET@TEX, if the roof is closed.
Pitching
The safest option – and likely chalk – is to just click Spencer Strider & Luis Castillo and move on.
Spencer Strider had a rough stretch of starts where his dominance started to come into question, but he rebounded nicely last time out vs PHI, and this is the Twins minus Byron Buxton (again). It’s very unlikely these Twins challenge him much on the road- consider him a strong SP1 in all formats.
Luis Castillo’s K rates are up vs both L & R bats which makes him an appealing SP2 option, but so are his walk rates to both sides and WAS occasionally does not strike out as much as expected. For cash, he’s great as your safe SP2, but read on for a couple alternatives that could offer more upside at lower ownership if you’re looking to gain ground in tournaments.
Andrew Heaney hasn’t necessarily been lighting it up in his last few starts, but he tends to limit damage and net a solid 5-6 Ks per start. The Tigers faced L Daniel Lynch 5 days ago and had no answers for him, leading to 7 IP with a one-hitter. Given this is also potentially the “safest” park for pitching (if the roof stays closed) – and decent run support – there are signs that he could pitch deep into this one if the Tigers struggle.
The upside GPP pivot may be Reid Detmers. He’s limited teams to 1 ER or less with a steady 8 Ks in each of his last 3 starts. Yasmani Grandal likely misses this game due to an injury in yesterday’s game – he was the one who took James Paxton deep on Saturday – so that leaves Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn as the only dangerous bats that Detmers needs to avoid. His K rates are up and hard hit numbers are down, which suggests he should have another solid start, resulting in good DFS value.
Justin Verlander may see ownership just because of his name, but given the hitting conditions of the park and the fact that he hasn’t registered a win in over a month, he feels like a guy to attack – mainly in GPPs. His K rate is way down vs Ls, while FB & hard contact rates are up, which could be dangerous with a strong wind out to left-center.
Batting
Happy Jordan Westburg day everyone! BAL is finally calling up the highly anticipated infielder and to celebrate, DraftKings has him at the minimum salary (FanDuel added him at SS for $2600). CIN@BAL is expected to be the highest scoring game on the slate, so be sure to add this chalky essential to all your lineups for his debut. Adley Rutschman & Aaron Hicks are also strong plays vs Brandon Williamson at home.
The Cinderella story of the Reds 12-game win streak is over, and after two narrow losses to ATL at home, they hit the road and hope to keep their offensive production up. Cole Irvin has only had two real starts in the past 2 months – one surrendering only one run to KC, and one with 3 ERs (via 3 HRs) to the Cubs on the road. L pitching tends to be Elly De La Cruz’s kryptonite, so he’s not a must-have play for this game. Instead, start with Spencer Steer, who has 7 TB in his last two games and almost a 90% hard hit rate vs Ls, and Kevin Newman, who typically leads off vs Ls. If you’re playing Strider+Castillo and need some savings, you can play Luke Maile as a value catcher alternative to Rutschman if he’s in the lineup. As part of a tournament stack, you can add Matt McLain or Jonathan India, but their recent trends have high K rates vs Ls, making them possibly better for GPP stacks than cash essentials.
The next game with prime hitting conditions for HRs is MIL@NYM. The safer side is to play Mets vs Colin Rea. If you’re playing FanDuel without the überchalk Westburg, Francisco Lindor is the best play. Other Ls to consider vs Rea would be Brandon Nimmo & Brett Baty. For GPPs, you could also add Pete Alonso or Francisco Álvarez to a stack.
For tournaments, if you want to go with low-owned options for the Brewers vs Justin Verlander, you can play Christian Yelich and/or Willy Adames. They both have hit charts showing HR balls to deep left, which is where the wind will be blowing out.
It’s hard to guess which version of Sonny Gray shows up in ATL, but his main weaknesses lately have been hard contact to Ls and walks to Rs. Matt Olson & Ozzie Albies should stay hot as power upside plays here, and Eddie Rosario remains a decent value option that could see multiple on-base opportunities.
The Angels underwent a bit of a lineup makeover during their recent COL series, and for the most part, it turned them into an offensive juggernaut (except for Shohei Ohtani who couldn’t manage more than a single in a 25-run hit fest on Saturday). They get to return home and host the White Sox & Dylan Cease, who is regressing a bit lately. Basically, if you can avoid the strikeout and stay patient, you can get to Cease – especially with LD contact. Mickey Moniak, Luis Rengifo, & recent defector Mike Moustakas (if they are starting) are bats that fit the profile, and Taylor Ward could be a decent value if leading off.
It’s supposed to be 100+ degrees again in Texas, so it’s very likely the roof stays closed for DET@TEX. Matthew Boyd last saw TEX about a month ago and gave up 5 ERs. TEX lines up well vs Boyd, although with it being a less explosive hitting environment compared to the options above, it may be hard to achieve maximum value with them. It’s probably best to work in 1-2 of them if you can fit them without forcing it, since they are mostly priced up. The cheaper options are Leody Taveras, Ezequiel Duran, and Robbie Grossman (if he’s in the lineup), and the more expensive plays are Josh Jung, Adolis García, and Corey Seager – who had a L-on-L HR vs Boyd in their last meeting.