Slate Details
FanDuel/DraftKings – Main slate (14 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
Pitching
There aren’t many pitchers in tonight’s DFS market that I would classify as true SP1s, but the middle class of starters is stacked with value.
Of course, Spencer Strider is in a league of his own both for his talent and his price. His ledger hasn’t been spotless this month, but even his “bad” starts end up being pretty valuable. Strider’s strikeout upside helps him rack up points even on off days. He’s had double-digit strikeouts in five of his past six starts. You’ll have to pay for it, but Strider offers a high floor and a game-changing ceiling.
Freddy Peralta was ridiculously dominant in his last start. He gave up just four hits and had 13 strikeouts in 6 innings. That was backed up by a 43% CSW and 24 whiffs on just 89 pitches. It was a great performance and he is lined up for a repeat against the last-place Washington Nationals.
I never thought I’d be in a position to recommend Lance Lynn this season, but here we are. Lynn had a 5.75 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in July, which is sadly his best month by a good margin. Lynn was traded to the Dodgers on Friday and a change of scenery can only help. He couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to draw for his first start in L.A. than the Oakland Athletics. He’s rocking a career-best 10.8 K/9, which gives him a nice floor for DFS purposes.
Justin Steele continues to be one of the season’s best breakout stories. His 5.14 PLV is in the 80th percentile with good pitch separation between his four-seamer and slider. He has five quality starts in his past six starts, but tread carefully against Cincinnati. Steele isn’t immune to a bad start, and the Reds gave him a big one back in May when they got to him for 10 hits and five earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings.
Kyle Bradish had a great streak snapped last week when he gave up five earned runs at Philadelphia. Before that, he had gone 10 straight starts where he allowed three earned runs or fewer. Toronto is a tough matchup, but the Jays likely will be without Bo Bichette who limped off the field Monday with a bum knee. Of course, that doesn’t take all the punch out of the Jays lineup, but it’s a good start.
I like the way that Carlos Rodón has pitched since coming off the IL even though the results have been underwhelming. I’d probably avoid him on DraftKings where he costs $9,000, but there’s value on FanDuel with his price set significantly lower at $7,900. There’s upside, but there’s also risk. Part of that is the opponent with Tampa Bay as the fourth-best offense in the league.
José Quintana is another diamond in the cheap rough though his value is better on DraftKings than FanDuel ($6,100 vs. $8,200). He’s spotted his four-pitch mix well through his first two starts with the Mets. His four-seamer and curveball were excellent in a small sample last season and so far so good this year (in an even smaller sample). He may not be 100% locked in just yet, but Kansas City is a great matchup.
Hitting
Colorado is back in the comfy surroundings of Coors Field. Comfy for us, of course. Rockies’ starter Peter Lambert has not allowed a run in three straight starts, but his opponents in those games were Washington, Miami, and Detroit. San Diego is on a different level. Fernando Tatis Jr. absolutely loves playing at Coors where he has a career slash of .365/.432/.753 in 85 at-bats. It’s a much smaller sample (19 at-bats), but Xander Bogaerts also cooks at Coors with a line of .474/.565/1.158. Ha-Seong Kim shook off any concerns about his shoulder after ripping a double Monday night to continue his torrid play. Manny Machado is on a seven-game hitting streak.
Zack Greinke has struggled against just about every team he has faced this season. He’s had a career worthy of the Hall of Fame, but this has been a season to forget. He has just two quality starts all year. After a tough June, Pete Alonso ended July on a high note with four homers and 12 RBI in the past week. Francisco Lindor also is picking up steam, going 6-for-12 in his last three games with home runs in back-to-back contests.
Oakland’s Ken Waldichuk has a 6.38 ERA this season. Some of the Dodgers’ hitters are the hottest in the game right now and should find a spot in your lineups. That includes Freddie Freeman (1.045 vs. lefties), Max Muncy (5 HR in the last 8), and Amed Rosario (.827 OPS vs. lefties, 7-for-13 in the last 4).
There is a lot of uncertainty swirling around the Tigers as the trade deadline approaches this evening. Michael Lorenzen was initially slated to start tonight’s game vs. the Pirates, but he could be traded before the first pitch (or maybe already is by the time you’re reading this). Instead, Matt Manning will take the bump after allowing seven earned runs in his last start. Bryan Reynolds is on a good streak, going 10-for-35 with three home runs in his last eight games, and Jack Suwinski has a .909 OPS against righties this season.
Hyun Jin Ryu hasn’t pitched since June 1 but will come off the IL tonight vs. Baltimore. His six starts this season weren’t great to begin with with a 5.67 ERA and 1.33. Opposing players were batting .294 against Ryu. He pitched well in four rehab starts, but getting back into the show is often a different story. Ryan Mountcastle is a great play. He’s slashing .319/.356/.659 against lefties this season and had hits in all but four games he started in July.
It’s always fairly easy to recommend an Atlanta stack with the consistent offense that the team provides. Patrick Sandoval has improved his stock since the All-Star break, but his overall numbers are still below average and the Braves will be his toughest test yet. Austin Riley was one of the best players in the league in July with nine home runs, 21 RBI, and 20 runs scored. His teammate Ronald Acuña Jr. could vie for that award, too, but his price is often hard to work into a DFS lineup. More reasonable options include Marcell Ozuna (4 HR in the last 4 games) and Orlando Arcia (1.071 OPS vs. lefties).
A Houston stack is also an easy call on most nights and I’d recommend it tonight. Gavin Williams has been solid for the Guardians, but he hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings in either of his last two starts and there is some smoke and mirror to his success so far. Alex Bregman, José Abreu, and Jose Altuve are my favorites tonight for the ‘Stros.
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