Thursday’s slate is split into two four-game slates: An early slate beginning at 12:35 ET and the main slate beginning at 6:40 ET with the Phillies hosting the Nats.
Note: There looks like there will be rain in Boston tonight so be sure to check the weather.
Early Slate Pitching
There could be some rain this afternoon in Baltimore, so be sure to double-check for delays or PPD.
Kenta Maeda clearly leads the way against the Tigers. He’s expensive but he’s earned it with a 2.47 ERA since he returned from the IL in late June. Boy, do I regret dropping him in a couple of my season-long leagues.
Alek Manoah and Noah Syndergaard anyone? Thanks, but no thanks.
Not surprisingly, Bryce Elder has regressed since his hot start. He’s playable as an SP 2 against the Pirates but I think I’d rather roll the dice and play Hunter Brown in a tougher matchup against the O’s because I believe in his ability way more. The $600 discount on DK ($8,900 for Brown and $8,300 for Elder) doesn’t seem like enough for me given the disparity in their strikeout ability.
Reese Olson might be a playable SP 2 because the Twins strike out a lot (27.1% team K rate is the worst by far). He’s $7,300 on DK.
Bats Early Slate
I really want to go after Alek Manoah, unfortunately, the Guardians lineup these days doesn’t have much thump. Still, José Ramírez looks like a great spend at 3B. Josh Naylor is out, but his brother Bo Naylor is an interesting punt play at catcher.
Atlanta leads the way with an implied total of six runs against former Phillie Bailey Falter. They’re tough to stack, especially on a short slate, but we’ve seen what they can do all year long.
If I’m picking and choosing, Ozzie Albies makes sense as a spend at 2B given that he’s much better as a right-handed batter. Marcell Ozuna is a way to get some power upside here at a more affordable price ($4,500 DK) relative to the big spends at the top of the lineup.
The other top stack is the Jays against the ghost of Noah Syndergaard. If he gets on, Whit Merrifield should be a good bet to steal against Syndergaard, who after all these years, still can’t seem to hold runners.
Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are both worthwhile spends against a susceptible righty in Dean Kremer.
I don’t really want to pick on Hunter Brown, but Ryan Mountcastle is only $4,000 on DK and has been hitting really well lately.
Today’s Main Slate SPs and 2023 Stats
A quick note on PLV: If you’re curious about its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A quick summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
Options are really slim tonight. Clayton Kershaw is returning after missing more than a month with a shoulder injury so he’s probably facing some sort of pitch limit tonight. Still, he’s been incredibly efficient this season and it’s also the road Rockies, so there’s that working in his favor.
All things considered, the Nats haven’t been as bad as I expected (19th in wOBA). Still, they traded away one of their best bats at the deadline, Jeimer Candelario, so that number probably trends down. Regardless, Aaron Nola is our only clear option on tonight’s four-game slate.
The other option near the top is James Paxton ($9,300 DK / $9,700 FD). The Red Sox are the second-largest favorite on the board (-267) as they finish their series with the Royals. It’s a potential ceiling spot for Paxton against an offense that’s near the bottom (fourth-lowest team wOBA). However, that game looks like it might be washed out.
Zack Littell is the only other playable option on the main slate. Littell doesn’t have much upside, case in point: He had just one strikeout in his last start against the Tigers. But the Rays are strong home favorites against the Cardinals (-180) so if you roll with him as an SP 2 on DK ($6,900), the hope is that he can come close to replicating Kershaw. Yeah, I don’t feel great about it either, but the cupboard is barren.
Even on a four-game slate, we can’t play Patrick Corbin, can we? Hmm, he hasn’t faced the Phillies yet this year. Last year, he had an 11.74 ERA against them in four starts. Oh, joy.
Bats Main Slate
Yes, The Trop isn’t a great park for offense, but Matthew Liberatore’s struggles cannot be understated, so I’d rank the Rays as the top stack. Liberatore has allowed a .408 wOBA to RHB, so don’t hesitate to fire away with any and all Rays like Yandy Díaz, Wander Franco, and Jose Siri.
If the Red Sox game isn’t postponed, it’s a great spot for Rafael Devers and co. to put up runs against Alec Marsh and the Royals pen. They’ve got a total of over six and a half runs. I think there’s still good value in Triston Casas on both sites ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD).
Then, of course, there’s the Phillies against Patrick Corbin who has coughed up 24 home runs so far this year. There might be more on the way tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, and Kyle Schwarber have all homered twice off Patrick Corbin in their careers. Who gets their third tonight? Or maybe Nick Castellanos gets his first? And don’t look now, but Trea Turner has a six-game hitting streak. He’s cheap on FD ($2,900).
I guess we have to like the Dodgers against Ty Blach, too, right? He’s got a career 5.19 ERA and 1.47 WHIP as a starter (261.2 IP). Chris Taylor has shown some pop this year and is a decent 3B play, especially if Rafael Devers gets rained out in Boston. You could also pay up from Max Muncy. Sure, Blach is a lefty, but he’s also Ty Blach.
Lefty mashers aren’t a thing, but every once in a while there’s someone who makes me reconsider that tenet. Kiké Hernández is one: A .345 career wOBA vs. LHP and .280 vs. RHP. Second base is definitely one of the trickier positions to fill. If you’re not going with Mookie Betts at the top, I guess you could completely punt it with Brendan Rodgers. Yeah, I don’t want to pick on Kershaw either but it opens up salary at least.
Nolan Gorman is an interesting play at 2B given Littell’s low K rate. Willson Contreras provides some power upside at Catcher and a $2,000 discount from Will Smith on DK.