Third base appears to be a position currently in flux.
While José Ramírez provides a shining example of superstar consistency atop the third base rankings year after year, only a handful of other established names currently join him up there (we’re looking at you, Rafael Devers and Manny Machado).
The rest of the top 10 looks like a list that could see a lot of changes as the season progresses and certainly could look very different at the end of the year. This is because almost half of the current top 10 consists of names that are being ranked more on their raw talent and potential than on their resumes and established track records — Jordan Westburg, Junior Caminero, Mark Vientos, and Royce Lewis have a combined 2,039 career at-bats.
Compare that with Ramírez’s 5,377 lifetime at-bats, and it’s easy to imagine why one might want to see more from any of those four young players before committing them to a starting third base spot on their fantasy team.
With so much uncertainty at the position, looking for sleepers becomes especially important. And while all four of the aforementioned young players show plenty of promise, there are other names much further down the rankings that deserve just as much, if not more, attention.
*All ADP data via NFBC
Eugenio Suárez – 169.89 ADP*
2024 stats (571 AB): .256 AVG, 30 HR, 101 RBI, 90 R, 2 SB
If asked to name all of the players who have averaged at least 32 home runs per season over the last six full (non-COVID) seasons, most people would probably end up naming quite a few players who didn’t qualify before they ever thought of Eugenio Suárez. And yet he has quietly become one of the more consistent power bats in the game, averaging 32.8 home runs over the last six full seasons.
Suárez was on pace to easily surpass that average in the shortened 2020 season as well, with a full season projection of 42 home runs and 108 RBI at the torrid pace that he tore through those 57 games.
Suárez mostly generates his power by making efficient use of a launch angle sweet-spot percentage of 40.4%, which puts him in an elite 96th percentile for that metric. He is also very reliable in terms of showing up to play nearly single every day, logging over 140 games in every season since 2018.
Most importantly, though, Suárez finished last season on fire as his last 100 plate appearances rolling xwOBA was elite for the entirety of that final 100 plate appearance stretch, hovering around the .400 mark the whole time. Suárez’s rolling chart for Pitcher List’s Power+ metric shows just how elite his final two months of the 2024 season were, with his Power+ measure threatening to skyrocket off the chart at times.
While it is impossible to ignore how slow of a start he got off to, the pure energy infusion of Josh Naylor joining the lineup should help ensure that Suárez doesn’t wait until the second half of the season this time around to heat up. With younger third basemen with much shorter resumes currently going much earlier in the draft, waiting a few more rounds to take Suarez this season looks like a safe bet at the current price.
Josh Jung – 213.48 ADP*
2024 stats (178 AB): .264 AVG, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 19 R, 4 SB
Josh Jung was making a very good case for being a top-10 third baseman in 2023 when a broken thumb ended his season prematurely.
Then just when Rangers’ fans were building optimism for a healthy Jung entering the 2024 season, he broke his wrist in only the fourth game of the year. That injury kept him off the field for most of the first four months of last season, and while he did re-aggravate that same wrist a bit towards the end of 2024, Jung says he is now fully good to go heading into 2025.
The former first-round pick looks to be more “unlucky” than “injury prone”, as the majority of his injury history involves being hit in the hand or wrist, resulting in broken bones. Thankfully, in general, bone injuries tend to be much less complicated to heal and move on from than tissue or ligament injuries, creating reasonable hope that Jung’s injury woes are officially behind him.
The homegrown Texas product rejoins a lineup that looks to also regain its 2023 form and put most of 2024 in the past. Down years from the likes of Marcus Semien and Adolis García kept the Rangers’ 2024 season from ever really taking off on the heels of their 2023 World Series win.
Those veteran bats, along with Corey Seager, will look to get back to their prime selves, while young phenom Wyatt Langford should be expected to take a huge leap forward in 2025 after having really figured things out at the plate in the final stretch of 2024.
Jake Burger was a nice addition as well for the Rangers in the offseason. While he goes through his cold stretches, he seems like a natural fit for the lineup and should be driving in Jung quite a bit.
Isaac Paredes – 216.46 ADP*
2024 stats (542 AB): .238 AVG, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 64 R
Rarely, if ever, has a new signing’s approach fit so perfectly with the dimensions of their new home ballpark. Isaac Paredes is after all, what some might call, a specialist. He does one thing particularly well — despite his relatively diminutive frame and low exit velocity numbers, Paredes loves to lift the ball to left field. He is as stubborn a pull hitter as pull hitters come.
See those 70 total home runs in the last three seasons? Every single one of them was hit to left field or left-center field. Now Paredes moves to one of the friendliest pull hitter parks for right-handed hitters, Daiken Park in Houston.
An overlay of his 2024 spray chart on top of the dimensions of Daikin Park speaks for itself. At least 10 balls that Paredes hit last season that went for singles, doubles or triples would have been in the seats in Houston. This doesn’t even count the fly outs that would have landed in the Daikin Park bleachers. Obviously he won’t be playing all 162 games at home next season, but this data is still nothing but promising.
To say that Paredes has also upgraded the offense surrounding him would be a major understatement. Tampa Bay was 29th in the league in runs scored per game last season, with only the White Sox offense performing worse. Houston finished just outside the top 10 at No. 11, and while they lost key pieces like Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, the additions of both Paredes and Christian Walker make for an intriguing new lineup for 2025.
Protected by Yordan Alvarez and Walker, and with Jose Altuve hitting ahead of him, Paredes is slated to be the No. 2 hitter and should have plenty of opportunities to both drive in runs and score runs himself. There may be some genuine questions about the ultimate depth of the 2025 Astros lineup, but outside of the Dodgers, it’s hard to find a better top of the order, helping to make Parades look like a steal at his current ADP.
Connor Norby – 270.38 ADP*
2024 stats (178 AB): .236 AVG, 9 HR, 20 RBI, 32 R, 3 SB
Often when a player gets injured, but plays through their injury, their numbers end up suffering in a way that can be hard to quantify, or even notice. This was likely the case for Connor Norby last season, who was on a tear after the Marlins acquired him from the Orioles as part of the Trevor Rogers deal. Given a chance to play every day at third base, the 24-year-old former second-round pick was making the most of it and giving Marlins fans a glimmer of optimism in an otherwise rough season. That all came to a screeching halt, though, when he fouled a ball off of his foot in a game on September 9.
He ended up only missing one game, returning two nights later and playing through the rest of the season. But he clearly was not the same player.
Before the injurious foul ball, Norby was hitting .312 through his first 19 games with Miami, with six home runs and 13 RBI. His numbers nose-dived after the injury, and he finished the season hitting only .236. His power in particular seemed to have been wiped out by his ailing foot.
It is now reasonable to expect Norby to be fully recovered, and for him to be able to regain his approach heading into 2025.
Despite non-elite exit velocity numbers, Norby has sneaky pop. In particular, he is efficient in his approach and leverages elite barrel and launch angle rates to create power despite non-elite exit velocity numbers. Most impressive from 2024 was his 98th percentile ideal contact rate (47%), showing just how well he is able to leverage his swing to drive the ball in ways that typically result in hits.
While his 94th-percentile sprint speed only led to three stolen bases last season, there is certainly untapped potential in this area as well, and his speed should help him add to his hit totals in the meantime.
At his current ADP, Norby looks like a hidden gem certainly worth taking a late-round flyer on.
Matt Shaw – 291.15 ADP*
2024 Double-A stats (312 AB): .279 AVG, 14 HR, 50 RBI, 60 R, 25 SB
2024 Triple-A stats (131 AB): .298 AVG, 7 HR, 21 RBI, 18 R, 6 SB
The Chicago Cubs‘ non-signing of Alex Bregman has immediately activated the Matt Shaw buzz around camp and among the Cubs faithful. The 23-year-old top prospect has admitted that he is relieved by the non-signing as well.
“Now,” Shaw said, “there is clarity moving forward. For the team, the media, it’s nice to figure out that piece for all of us. There’s less questions about it, you can move forward together. This is our team.”
Selected 13th overall in the 2023 draft and currently ranked No. 19 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list, Shaw has shown elite hitting skills at every level where he has played.
Across 121 games between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Shaw finished the season batting .284 with 21 home runs, 71 RBI, and 31 stolen bases. Though only 35 of those games were at the Triple-A level, he more than held his own, hitting .298 with a robust .929 OPS. He then proceeded to absolutely rake for Team USA in the Premier12 showcase in November, leading the tournament in RBIs (14) and total bases (24) while hitting for a .412 AVG.
Even if Shaw is stuck in the bottom half of what should be a very deep Cubs lineup, it is an offense that should produce runs at a rapid clip throughout the season.
The addition of Kyle Tucker alone is major. Seiya Suzuki should continue to hit at an elite level. Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson are both underrated at this point in their careers. Nico Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong provide dynamism and endless speed at the bottom of the order. There really isn’t a weak spot in the lineup, so Shaw’s counting stats could be decent no matter where he is hitting.
This week’s signing of Justin Turner is something to keep an eye on, but now that the Shaw buzz train has started rolling, it would be hard to imagine the Cubs keeping him out of the lineup for long, if at all. It’s possible that Turner was signed as a backup plan for first base, in case Michael Busch does not show signs of improvement.
Either way, Shaw is a worthy pre-season investment and someone you will want to have on your team already when he is announced as a member of the Cubs’ starting lineup, rather than scrambling to see if he is still available on waivers after the announcement is made.
I find it entertaining that Norby made both PL’s Sleepers and Bust lists. High ceiling, low floor?
Noticed same thing. My thoughts were the editor called in sick that day