Sorry for the hiatus the last two months! I suffered a baseball injury and landed on the IL.
Nope, it is not what you think; I do not play baseball (I just write about it). At a National’s game this summer, I attempted to catch a foul ball, which turned out to be a huge mistake. It was a sky high foul, and would have landed on my face if I did not stick my hands up to try to catch it.
By the way, this was my first ever foul ball in 38 years of going to games. The ball game down landing directly on the top of my index finger, breaking the bone and the nail. The Nats had a great first aid team that day that patched me up, and I cannot say enough about the customer service team. They provided a signed ball, because, of course, I did not get the ball I attempted to catch. And they are bringing me back for a game at the end of the season.
Anyway, here is your Out% update article for the last week of games.
Below, you will find our latest Out rate update. The data has been accumulated over the course of the season and is updated as of Friday, 8/21.
Here are a few basics relating to Out rate:
- Out% = how often a pitcher’s pitch results in an out
- Good Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an expected batting average below .250, plus strikeouts
- Lucky Out% = how many of the outs were on batted balls that had an xBA of .250 or higher
You can use Out rate to help you make tough decisions about your pitching staff, including whom to drop or add, and whom to trade for or away. Out rate is also a reasonably effective predictive tool, considering its modest “stickiness.” So, pitchers with multiple high Out rate pitches will tend to do better in terms of ERA, especially pitchers with high fastball Out rates.
For a little more info on the basics of Out rate, read this.
For some more specifics on good and lucky outs, read this.
And to view our Out Rate Leaderboard Google Doc, click this.
League Average Out Rates
Below are the league average out rates for each pitch type as of Friday, 8/21. This is how we measure a pitcher’s Out Rate performance.
- Fastball – 16.6%
- Cutter – 16%
- Sinker – 17.4%
- Splitter – 20%
- Slider – 18%
- Sweeper – 17.7%
- Curveball – 16.7%
- Changeup – 19.2%
A few notable starting pitchers sit atop the leaderboards for each pitch (min. 40 pitches thrown, not counting injured pitchers), including
- Hayden Wesneski – Fastball 27.5%
- Nick Martinez – Cutter 22.9%
- Braxton Ashcraft – Sinker 25.9%
- Foster Griffin – Splitter 26.3%
- Anthony Kay – Slider 29.9%
- Sonny Gray – Sweeper 27.8%
- Payton Tolle – Curveball 28.1%
- Clay Holmes – Changeup 25%
Fastball Out% Highlight
Jacob Misiorowski has been among the best pitchers this season for fantasy baseball. A major reason for that is an absolutely absurd fastball, but his entire arsenal has been elite.
“The Miz” features four pitches that qualify for Out%: his slider, curveball, cutter, and fastball. All four grade as above league average. Their Out rates are 26%, 24%, 20%, and 17% respectively.
Having a high Out Rate on a fastball is worth noting, as fastballs typically are not used as out pitches. So being able to add pitches beyond off-speed and breaking balls to get batters out takes a pitcher to a higher level of effectiveness. And boy, has Misiorowski been effective. He has thrown his fastball over 1,300 times this season, averaging 100 MPH on it, and it has been hit just 50 times for a .173 BAA. PLV backs up some of the surface data to show why it has been so effective:
Several elements make this an elite fastball in terms of PLV, including its velocity, break, and vert being well above average. He also gets elite extension on the pitch, making it feel even faster and giving batters less time to adjust. Even if he does not locate it perfectly, it is so good otherwise that he can work around issues like leaving it over the plate, because batters simply cannot pick it up.
Some other fun-facts about Misiorowski’s fastball: it has a 41% whiff rate, a 45% K rate, and a 34% putaway rate. It is clear why it has been so effective at inducing outs — it is insanely hard to hit. Like this:
Jacob Misiorowski, 100mph Fastball and 97mph Slider, Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/VMYJnvL9PG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 25, 2026
On top of that, Misiorowski boasts one of the best out pitches in baseball, which can also be seen in the graphic above. Among all pitches that have been thrown at least 80 times, Misiorowski’s slider is the 15th most effective out pitch. If you eliminate relievers and injured pitchers, it is the fifth best out pitch in baseball. Similar to his fastball, it has just been incredibly difficult for batters to get a hold of, with a .169 BAA, a 35% whiff rate, a 26% K rate, and a 25% putaway rate.
Arguably, his best pitch, though, is his curveball. It has a 24% Out Rate, and a higher Good Out Rate than even his slider, meaning he has earned a higher rate of outs on his curveball than any of his other pitches. Not surprisingly, Misiorowski’s curveball features the highest groundball rate (65%), strikeout rate (50%), and whiff rate (43%) among his arsenal, and the second highest putaway rate in his arsenal at 28%. Take a look at this physics-defying pitch here:
Jacob Misiorowski, Vicious 89mph Curveball. 😤
12th K pic.twitter.com/nZmy4dKuqM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 25, 2026
Misiorowski’s cutter is the only pitch in his arsenal that is a little suspect, considering about a third of the outs created by it are considered Lucky Outs, but even still, the pitch quality is so good, that it is not concerning.
Out% is relatively sticky from year to year, especially when the pitch quality is high, and that is the case for Misiorowski. He should be one of the first pitchers off the board in 2027 drafts, and could potentially be a first round draft pick in some leagues.
An Out Rate Pitcher to Target
Zac Thornton has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers who have taken a chance on him. He found a regular spot in the rotation in late June and has not looked back. Across eight starts in that time frame, he has five quality starts and a 3-3 record, with a 3.04 season ERA.
A huge reason for his success is his ability to get batters out with multiple pitches. His fastball especially has been stellar, with a 21% Out Rate, fourth best among active starters. Thornton uses it in two-strike counts specifically, considering his fastball’s putaway rate sits at 25%, the best among his seven-pitch arsenal. Among his five pitches with at least 10% usage, his fastball also boasts the second lowest BAA at .200, showing just how difficult it has been for batters to hit. Here is his latest game card, flaunting multiple pitches with elite PLV numbers, including his cutter, changeup, sweeper, and slider.
On top of an incredibly effective fastball, Thornton also offers an above average Out% on his slider at 23.8%. Interestingly, as a lefty pitcher, he uses it much more often against righty batters as a front-door slider than he does against lefties. Still, it has been excellent at inducing swings and misses, with a 25% whiff rate and a 21% K rate. Thornton may want to be a bit more choosy about how he uses his slider, though, because a little over a third of the outs on his slider have been Lucky Outs, meaning his defense likely has helped him a bunch with those. And an 80% LOB rate — 7% higher than league average and 5% higher than he ever posted in the minors — backs that up.
Thornton also features a league average sweeper when it comes to Out Rate, at 17.7%. He uses that more evenly against lefty and righty hitters, and it features his best whiff rate at 26%, but just a 20% K rate and a 17% putaway rate. With a little better sequencing, and using it more against LHB in two-strike counts, this pitch could be way more effective at creating outs for Thornton.
Thornton has already seen some success, has quality stuff, and has three highly effective out pitches. This makes him a must add in any leagues where he is available, especially for anyone trying to win a playoff matchup.
An Out Rate Pitcher to Avoid
Framber Valdez has been pretty disappointing this season for fantasy managers who expected the consistency that he provided in past seasons. Part of his issue is his lack of quality out pitches.
Of the pitches in Valdez’s arsenal, his slider has been his best pitch, but pitchers cannot be successful on sliders alone. Valdez’s slider has induced a 25% Out Rate, with a 24% Good Out Rate, meaning he has earned nearly all of the outs on his slider. He almost exclusively tosses it against lefty hitters, and it has been truly successful for him. One major issue for the veteran is that he only uses his slider 4% of the time. It is a super effective pitch, but he rarely uses it against righty hitters, and the ones he does use against them have not been particularly effective at generating outs.
Valdez’s sinker has been his most frequently used offering, and it has been hit a ton, to the tune of a .308 BAA. His 17.3 Out% on it is just .1% below league average, but 5% of that Out Rate grades as Lucky Outs. This means that of the outs he has generated with his sinker, just under a third of them have been unearned outs. Plus, it has just a 10% whiff rate and a 15% putaway rate, so he is not sequencing or locating it effectively, or both. PLV also grades this pitch as below average:
Valdez has below average velocity and extension, while also managing below average break. The somewhat saving grace for this pitch is that he locates it relatively well, but with the below average pitch quality, it should be surprising to see that Valdez’s sinker is not fooling batters. This is essentially how all his PLV charts look. His highest graded pitch is his changeup, at 5.07, but all of his pitches hover at league average pitch quality or worse, supporting the low Out Rates.
His curveball has also not induced many outs, at just a 16% rate, which is problematic because it is his second most used pitch. Valdez has gotten some swings and misses with it — it has a 32% whiff rate — but those have not turned into strikeouts or putouts. It has just a 19% putaway rate. Again, this could be a sequencing issue, or perhaps he just needs to throw it to lefty hitters more often. Valdez has tossed it to LHB 108 times compared to 532 times to RHB.
Technically, Valdez does feature one other above average out pitch in his changeup, with a 19.7% Out Rate. Similar to his sinker, though, his Lucky Out Rate accounts for a third of those outs. It also is his second most hit pitch, with a .274 BAA, and is another pitch in his arsenal that did not crack a 20% putaway rate.
Valdez is a pitcher I would have some concern starting in my fantasy baseball lineup in playoff matchups the next few weeks. In redraft leagues, for managers in playoff or championship contention, I’d consider swapping him out for someone more effective.
Other Out Rate Pitchers to Buy/Add
Other Out Rate Pitchers to Sell/Drop
