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First-Year Player Draft Mock Draft – First Round

Vincent Ginardi looks at some mock draft picks for next year's FYPDs.

This season’s First Year Player Draft feels a bit different than those of years past – there isn’t really a clear-cut number-one pick (though it seems Travis Bazzana has become the consensus first pick). Instead, we have a handful of players in the the top of this draft that could theoretically go first overall. It also feels, that even though this first round is a collection of players that should be very impactful for fantasy baseball purposes, the ceiling for the players in this draft is not quite as high as what we saw a year ago.

That being said, we were definitely spoiled last year – the top half of most FYPDs featured two of the best college bat prospects that we have come across in recent years, along with the best pitching prospect in more than a decade, and the largest international signing in the history of the sport. Still, this year is maybe stronger than what we expected at the time of the 2024 draft itself.

This mock draft is completely fictional and conducted by just one author. As always with your FYPD, the most important rule is to always get your guy. Don’t be loyal to a set of rankings or a mock draft like this one just because it’s higher or lower on the players you’re researching. In many of these cases, the difference in value between players here is fairly marginal, and it’s likely going to be multiple years before most of them even make the major leagues. So get the guy you want.

This mock assumes that it is a standard 12-team league. It also assumes that Roki Sasaki is not signing with an MLB team and is not eligible to be drafted, despite recent reports that he may be doing just that this winter. If he was eligible, he’d be the clear number-one pick, and everyone else would get pushed down.

 

1.01 Travis Bazzana, 2B, CLE

The Cleveland Guardians selected Bazzana with the first overall pick in July, and it’s likely Bazzana will go first overall in your FYPD, too. He goes first here in this mock. As mentioned above, he’s more or less become the consensus first-overall pick in these drafts, but that could change in the next few months. Coming out of the draft, he was seen more as the 1B option in FYPDs to Charlie Condon’s 1A, but the latter’s struggles against pro pitching (more on that later), have caused him to slide down rankings.

Bazzana didn’t exactly light up professional arms himself, but he held his own, triple-slashing .238/.369/.396 with three home runs and five steals in 27 High-A games. He walked 13.9% of the time while striking out at a 25.4% rate.

The second baseman had an unreal final season at Oregon State – breaking the school record with 28 home runs in 60 games while batting .407. Obviously, he’s not going to be a .400 hitter who is also one of the best power hitters in the sport at the MLB level, but Bazzana projects as a solid bat with good power at a middle infield position.

1.02 JJ Wetherholt, 2B/SS, STL

A year ago, Wetherholt was the likely candidate to go first overall in the MLB draft. But the combination of Wetherholt dealing with an injury-plagued season and other collegiate bats performing at incredibly high levels led to the shortstop sliding to the Cardinals at seventh overall.

Unlike some of the hitting prospects, Wetherholt performed well once he faced professional arms. Yes, it was against Low-A arms while others went to High-A, but he hit .295 and walked more than he struck out. Wetherholt has the look of a do-it-all contributor from a fantasy perspective, and while there are much higher ceilings to chase throughout this first round, Wetherholt probably has the lowest bust rate amongst the bats in this draft. If we look back to his 2023 sophomore season at West Virginia, Wetherholt hit .449 with 16 home runs and 26 steals, so there may be more potential here than we realize.

1.o3 Jac Caglianone, 1B/SP, KCR

And if you want to draft for ceiling, Caglianone is your guy. As a batter, Caglianone is a power-hitting behemoth who hit .419 with 35 home runs in his junior year at Florida. His 1.419 OPS looks like a typo, but it isn’t. He has the type of power that could lead to Caglianone blossoming into one of the premier power hitters in the sport.

Caglianone put up similar numbers to Bazzana at High-A, hitting two home runs and batting .241 in 29 games. So he held his own but will need to prove he can hit professional arms consistently.

Caglianone was also a flamethrower on the mound at Florida. So he’s technically a two-way prospect, but given that he had a WHIP over 1.500, it will probably benefit him if he fully transitions to hitting, which appears to be the direction things are heading.

Overall this profile reads similar to that of Bryce Eldridge from a year ago. And fantasy managers who invested in Eldridge are surely happy with what they have seen so far.

1.04 Chase Burns, SP, CIN

Burnes became the most well-known pitching prospect in college baseball this past season, putting up multiple double-digit strikeout performances. He was a human highlight reel on social media, en route to a sub-3.00 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 100 innings.

Getting drafted by the Reds is not ideal given that they play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball, but we’ve seen in recent years that the top college arms in drafts can move quickly, especially for teams that are looking to contend for a playoff spot. If you’re looking for the quickest short-term value, Burnes is the pick.

1.05 Charlie Condon, 3B, COL

Coming out of the draft, Condon appeared to be the clear choice to go 1.01. He was coming off an absolutely monster season at Georgia where he hit .433 with 37 home runs in 60 games, and then he got drafted by the team with the best hitter’s park in the sport. It was easy to envision an annual 40-homer bat.

But Condon struggled mightily in his professional debut. In 25 game High-A games he hit just .180, walking less than four percent of the time while striking out north of 30%. There is not much from this sample to feel optimistic about, and by taking Condon you are writing off those 25 games and hoping he bounces back in 2025. We’ve seen players struggle in their first taste of professional ball before

1.06 Hagen Smith, P, CHW

There isn’t a massive talent difference between Smith and Burns, and I’d expect Smith to be the one that could potentially fall to the back end of the first round given that he was drafted by an organization that seemed to do absolutely everything wrong in 2024.

Smith is a lefty who dominated in his junior season at Arkansas, striking out 161 batters in 84 frames while posting a 2.04 ERA. He has just as much upside as Burns and probably has a higher floor given his longer track record of success. If there is one thing that the White Sox have done well recently it is developing their lefty arms, so Smith looks to be next in line.

1.07 Christian Moore, 2B, LAA

The Angels have been super aggressive with their top prospects in recent years, promoting them quickly through the minor league ranks. It appears Moore is the latest example of that path.

After spending just two games at Low-A, the Angels fast-tracked Moore to Double-A. All he did there was hit, triple slashing .322/.378/.533 with five home runs in 23 games. Unfortunately, he suffered a meniscus injury in late August which cut short his season. It wouldn’t have been all that surprising for the Angels to give him a cup of coffee had he not.

Moore did strike out close to 30% of the time at Double-A, so there is some risk here, but of all the draftees, Moore did the most to improve his stock after draft day.

1.08 Nick Kurtz, 1B, OAK

Kurtz had a bit of a disappointing junior campaign at Wake Forest, hitting just .308 with 22 home runs. So yeah, he still produced, but it was a noticeable step back from freshman and sophomore seasons.

Still, Oakland selected the big lefty with the fourth overall pick. He only appeared in 14 minor league games, but dominated in those contests, putting up a 1.283 OPS. He then went on to put up similar numbers in the Arizona Fall League.

Kurtz is a first base-only profile, so he will really need to hit in order to be a fantasy contributor. He should have the bat to do just that.

1.09 Cam Smith, 3B, CHC

Smith is the other contender for best post-draft performer. The third baseman played across three levels, triple-slashing .313/.396/.609 with seven home runs in 32 games. Now all but one of those home runs came at Low-A, but it was certainly encouraging to see.

Smith has big power overall and given his professional performance compared to Condon’s, don’t be surprised if the former goes ahead of the latter in your draft.

1.10 Braden Montgomery, OF, BOS

The switch-hitting outfielder Montgomery put together a stellar junior season for Texas A&M, triple slashing .322/454/.733 with 27 home runs in 61 games. This was after Montgomery had two nice seasons at Stanford, focusing more on hitting after originally being a two-way player, and the Red Sox selected him 12th overall.

Montgomery struck out at a higher clip at the collegiate level (20% in 2024) than most of the other top bats in this draft, but the Red Sox have been one of the better organizations at developing hitters in recent years.

1.11 Seaver King, INF/OF, WSN

From a pure fantasy perspective, King might offer the most upside of all of the bats in this round. Why? Well he’s going to play all over the diamond, offering defensive versatility for your lineup, and he’s one of the few position players that actually steals bases.

King transferred to Wake Forest for his junior season and held his own, hitting .308 with 16 home runs and 11 steals in 60 games. He could be a 20/20 bat, but comes with more risk than most other prospects as prior to Wake Forest he played ball at DII Wingate.

1.12 Konnor Griffin, OF, PIT

Hey, look! A high school draftee. Our first of the mock.

Griffin’s upside is probably even higher than King’s given his great blend of power and speed. He has a long way to go to get to the bigs but has tremendous upside – it would just instill more confidence had he gone to a team that has had a better track record at developing hitters.

 

Photos courtesy of respective owners | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)

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