What’s up everyone!
If you’re unfamiliar with this series, each week I take a look at some hitting matchups you should take advantage of and some hitting matchups you should avoid, based on who the hitters will likely be facing on the mound. I’ll also be focusing on catchers you can stream each week since we all know that catcher can be an especially tricky position in fantasy.
So let’s take a look at the hitters to start and avoid in Week 21 (8/19-8/25) of the fantasy baseball season.
Notes: All pitching matchups mentioned here are based on projections as of this post’s publication. It is entirely possible that the actual matchups could change for any number of reasons. Keep in mind, this article is geared toward middle-of-the-road players, meaning you should be starting top-of-the-line bats regardless of the matchup. Always start your studs.
START
Baltimore Orioles hitters – The Orioles have a full seven-game week this week against two fairly weak pitching staffs, which should be good for their hitters.
The O’s start the week off with three games against the Mets, a team that currently owns the seventh-worst team FIP in all of baseball. In that series, they’ll see David Peterson, Jose Quintana, and Sean Manaea, none of whom concern me all that much.
Then, they’ll have four games against the Astros, who currently own the 12th-worst team FIP in the league, where they’ll face off against Spencer Arrighetti, Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, and Yusei Kikuchi. Valdez can definitely be a problem so he might be an avoid in daily leagues, but the rest are all “eh could be tough but not super worried,” and given how homer-friendly Minute Maid Park is on top of that, I think you’re good to start your Orioles hitters.
One thing I’d recommend against though: if you’ve been rolling with Ryan O’Hearn at all, I wouldn’t be starting him this week. The Orioles are slated to face five lefties in their seven games this week, and O’Hearn generally gets benched against lefties.
All those lefties are good news for Ryan Mountcastle though, as he’s a career .283/.336/.504 hitter against lefties, so make sure he’s in your lineups this week.
Tampa Bay Rays hitters – The Rays also have a full seven-game week this week, starting off with four games against the Athletics, who currently own the eighth-worst team FIP in all of baseball. In that series, they’re slated to see Joe Boyle, Joey Estes, Mitch Spence, and Osvaldo Bido, none of whom worry me all that much.
Then, they’ll have three games against the Dodgers who currently have the 11th-worst team FIP in the league. It’s not totally clear who they’ll see in that series, depending on how the Dodgers’ rotation shuffles around with Tyler Glasnow landing on the IL. If I had to guess, it seems Bobby Miller is going to move into Glasnow’s slot, and if everything else stays the same, that means the Rays will see Miller, Clayton Kershaw, and Gavin Stone. Kershaw would definitely be an avoid in daily leagues, but the way Miller has been pitching, I’m not worried about him at all, and Stone isn’t someone I’d avoid either.
Brandon Lowe is sporting a .214 ISO over the past two weeks and is worth a look for your lineups this week. In deep OBP leagues, Taylor Walls owns a .360 OBP and .191 ISO over the past two weeks and could have some value (again, this is deep OBP leagues).
Toronto Blue Jays hitters – The Blue Jays also get a full seven-game week this week (lots of busy weeks for MLB teams this week) with a good handful of favorable pitching matchups that you can take advantage of.
They start the week off with three games against the Reds where they’ll see Hunter Greene, Carson Spiers, and Nick Martinez. Certainly, the matchup against Greene can be tough, so I’d probably avoid that in daily leagues; Martinez has the potential to be pretty tough too, but I’m certainly not worried about Spiers.
While the Reds series has a couple of potentially tough matchups, it’s all clear after that, as the Jays have a four-game series against the Angels who currently own the fourth-worst team FIP in all of baseball, so all in all I think there’s a good amount of value here to warrant starting your Blue Jays hitters.
In deep leagues, if you want to see if Will Wagner’s hot hitting over the first three games of his MLB career (he’s gone 7-for-12) keeps up, he could be worth a grab this week and is likely widely available. Also, Ernie Clement is slashing .333/.348/.444 over the past two weeks and could have some value in deeper leagues.
Cincinnati Reds hitters – Another seven-game week! This time for the Reds, who have themselves some nice matchups for their hitters.
They start the week off with the three games against the Blue Jays I mentioned earlier, a team that currently owns the third-worst team FIP in all of baseball. In that series, they’ll see Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Yariel Rodríguez. While Gausman has traditionally been an avoid, he’s not been especially good this season, so I’m not all that worried about him, nor do Berrios or Rodriguez concern me all that much.
After that, the Reds get a four-game series against the Pirates where they’ll see Paul Skenes, Bailey Falter, Jake Woodford, and Luis Ortiz. Obviously, Skenes is an avoid in daily leagues, but outside of that, I think you’re good to start your Reds hitters.
TJ Friedl is worth a look this week, as he’s been hitting .279/.340/.581 over the past two weeks, as is Ty France who’s sporting a .263/.300/.579 over the same time period.
CATCHER TO STREAM: Tyler Stephenson is out there on a fair number of waiver wires and if you need some help at the catcher position, he’d be a great one to pick up, as he’s hitting .279/.326/.581 over the past two weeks.
AVOID
San Francisco Giants hitters – The Giants have six games this week, and normally when a team has a series against the White Sox, as the Giants do to start off the week, they’re often in the start section of the article, because the White Sox are one of the worst pitching staffs in the league.
And certainly in the first two games of the series where the Giants will face Jonathan Cannon and Davis Martin, go for it in daily leagues. But after that, they’ll face Garrett Crochet, who’s a tough matchup, and then they’ll have a three-game series against the Mariners, who have the second-best team FIP in the league, where they’ll see Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Bryan Woo.
So in a six-game week, there’s basically two games I’d be comfortable starting my Giants hitters in, meaning there’s not enough value to warrant starting my middle-of-the-road Giants in weekly leagues.
Chicago White Sox hitters – Speaking of the White Sox, I’d also be avoiding their hitters this week. They start their week off with the three-game series against the Giants that I mentioned earlier where they’ll see Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray, and Logan Webb. Harrison can certainly be a problem (if a bit volatile), Webb is definitely an avoid, and while I know Ray has been rough lately, I think a game against the White Sox is just what he needs to bounce back.
After that, the White Sox get three games against the Tigers, who currently own the fourth-best team FIP in the league. In that series, they’ll see Keider Montero, Tarik Skubal, and Bryan Sammons. I’m not worried about Montero, but Skubal is obviously an avoid, and Sammons has looked fairly decent (though probably not good enough to really warrant avoiding him in daily leagues). Overall, there’s just not enough value here for me to start my White Sox hitters this week in weekly leagues.
New York Mets hitters – Thet Mets have seven games this week, which would normally be exciting, but they should be in for some difficult matchups.
They start the week off with three games against the Orioles who currently own the seventh-best team FIP in baseball. In that series, they’ll see Dean Kremer, Zach Eflin, and Corbin Burnes. Kremer I’m not worried about, but Eflin has looked pretty darn good since joining the O’s and Burnes is always a tough matchup (his game against the Red Sox on Friday notwithstanding).
After that, the Mets will have four games against the Padres, who currently have the fifth-best team FIP in the league. In that series, they’ll see Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, Michael King, and Martín Pérez, and it’s really only Perez that I’d feel comfortable starting my Mets hitters against, meaning there’s not a ton of value here overall this week.