October means the end of the fantasy season for redraft managers, and it marks the end of my second season as the writer of the weekly Hitter Stash List. Over the course of the past 18+ months, producing the top ten every week has been both challenging and rewarding, and has left lessons that have resonated with me regarding prospect evaluation/acquisition.
The following is a collection of just some of those lessons. As is the case with every Stash List, or some of my other content, these are all my opinions. These are not meant to be interpreted as “fact” or to suggest that dissenting opinions are wrong. They are simply some “big-picture” sentiments that have informed how I’ve thought about improving my writing/evaluations next season.
Here are five lessons that I’ve learned while writing the Hitter Stash List throughout 2025.
1. Listen to What Organizations are Telling You
News flash: when an organization holds a player in the minors long after we, as fans, believe they’re “ready” for the majors, there’s probably something they know about that’s preventing them from making that decision. On the flip side, if they fast-track a prospect despite that player having underwhelming numbers, there’s something we’re missing.
The most glaring examples of the first sentiment were Owen Caissie, Justin Crawford, and Spencer Jones. All three spent most of the season (60-70%) in the top ten, yet only one received any time in the majors. There are holes in each of their games, and they are far from being “perfect” prospects, but they’re still top-100 prospects with over 400 AAA games played between them. 226 of those games were played by Caissie, who was promoted in August, but only got 27 plate appearances with the Cubs before returning to AAA. The Cubs’ outfield has been one of the best in baseball this season (14.3 fWAR, 3rd in MLB), so chances for Caissie were always going to be slim. Roster construction is a factor that’s taken into account on a week-to-week basis when making the Stash List, but Caissie’s performance warranted more MLB playing time in my opinion.
The Cubs disagreed, and it’s easy to see why. In the (very) limited opportunities, Caissie’s 38% chase and 39% whiff rates were among the lowest in the league. When he made contact, it tended to lack the power he showed in the minors (87.4 mph AVG. EV). The bat speed and barrel rates were good, but the rest of his profile showed areas for growth. The people making the decisions in Chicago likely recognized this and opted to keep Caissie in a place where he can thrive while working through some of the changes he needed to make. Crawford and Jones both have well-documented holes in their game as well, so their respective organizations likely made a similar decision.
This is not meant to bash any of the players mentioned. All three are going to feature in the majors at some point in their careers. Crawford’s speed and Jones’ pop will be their calling cards, which their organizations will utilize to the best of their ability. Instead, this is meant to illustrate how the action/inaction of an organization can lead to the stock of a prospect changing over the course of a single season.
2. The Major Leagues are HARD
Eight of the ten rookie fWAR leaders spent time on the Stash List either in 2024 or in 2025. The only two that didn’t feature: Carlos Narváez and Isaac Collins, both are over the age of 26 and didn’t fit the definition of what I would consider a “prospect”. Some of the other names, such as Jacob Wilson, Roman Anthony, and Drake Baldwin, are all long-time alumni of the Stash List, and have grown into MLB regulars. Those can be chalked up as “successes”, but there have been plenty of misses, too. The bottom three in rookie fWAR (min. 50 PA) were also mentioned in the List more than once over the past 18 months.
The skill gap between AAA and the majors is ridiculous, and it can be a treacherous climb for rookies to get to average MLB production. One of the first “frequent flyers” on the Stash List for me was Pete Crow-Armstrong. Between 2023 and 2024, he hit .228 with an 81 wRC+. This year, there was chatter around him being the MVP until the All-Star Break. Baltimore’s Jackon Holliday and Coby Mayo, along with PCA’s teammate Matt Shaw, all returned to AAA after originally graduating from the List. Even though each of them has started to find their footing, all three still have wRC+ marks below 100.
Players who can assimilate into MLB competition immediately after their promotion are becoming incredibly rare. We’ve been spoiled in 2025 with the rise of Roman Anthony and Nick Kurtz; however, they’re two of just nine first-year players to have a WAR over two. In 2024, that tally was 14, and the year prior it was 16. It’s getting harder and harder for young players to truly establish themselves, which is making projecting potential redraft value more difficult.
Even when a player looks to be a potential difference-maker based on early returns, there’s a very high chance that pitchers “figure out” the hitter, and he returns to a below-average rate of production (looking at you, Warming Bernabel). There is still value in stashing young players for that initial production, and the production they’ll generate once they’re comfortable, but there are going to be growing pains for managers to get through before they can truly rely on a young player.
3. Current Performance ≠Future Performance (Sometimes)
There have been a few occasions in the past two years where a player I ignored broke out and became a fantasy stud. This year, I undervalued Agustín Ramírez, who finished as a top-15, arguably top-10 fantasy catcher this season. If I could go back to the start of the season, he’d have been in the top five on the Stash List every week until he was called up. He had all of the tools to succeed. Ramirez’s contact rate in AAA (69%) was bad, but it was a low outlier compared to his career marks. The batted-ball data (89.0 mph AVG EV, 44% Hard Hit rate) was too good to ignore at his position. That contact rate, along with the 5% jump in strikeout rate and 50-point drop in OPS, was enough to scare me away. In return, Ramirez mashed 21 homers and stole 16 bases, making him the only catcher with 15+ homers and steals in 2025.
The same thing happened a few months later. I characterized the decision to call up Colson Montgomery as “puzzling” when the White Sox announced they were handing the 23-year-old his debut. On paper, I had a point. Montgomery’s 37% hard-hit rate and 88.8 miles an hour average exit velocity were both well below the AAA average, and his 33% strikeout rate was a major red flag. All of those numbers took a significant step forward once he arrived in Chicago. Montgomery finished second on the Sox in home runs (21), behind only Lenyn Sosa (22), who played almost double as many games as the rookie did. Despite only being on the White Sox for a matter of months, Montgomery led the team in wOBA (.355), wRC+ (129), and fWAR (2.7).
These are just two examples, but there are plenty more where that came from. The moral of the story is that just because there’s a performance drop-off in a player, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re doomed to only produce at the new level for the rest of their career. Growth and development are not linear. There are bumps on the road and slumps just as often as there are hot streaks. In the case of Montgomery, I should have taken into account the White Sox’s record and the lack of depth at shortstop. Of course, they were going to try to get their top infield prospect a shot in the majors.
This, like all of the lessons mentioned, can also work in reverse. Statistically, Jordan Lawlar is one of the best AAA players I’ve tracked (.990 OPS in 91 games). At the same time, he just cannot seem to get accustomed to MLB pitching (.182 AVG, 52 wRC+). When it comes to redraft value, this makes projecting the rest of the season for a prospect much harder. However, it also allows for storylines like Montgomery’s to emerge, which is part of what makes fantasy baseball so much fun.
4. The Trade Deadline lacks Prospect Movement
During the months leading up to, and immediately before, the 2025 trade deadline, I debuted a “trade likelihood” section for every prospect. The 1-10 scale aimed to inform dynasty managers on the chances that the players featured would be involved in the dealings at the deadline.
After researching and hypothesizing for weeks on possible partners, projected roster spots, and even creating my own “mock-trades”, not a single player featured on the last list before the deadline was traded. That included Owen Caissie (9/10 likelihood), Justin Crawford (5/10), and Spencer Jones (4/10). I had my reasons for projecting them in potential deals, but I underestimated the hesitancy of competing teams to part ways with their young talent.
This season, only one top-1o0 prospect was involved in a deal, and his value for 2025 was low. Leodalis De Vries went from the A’s to San Diego, but that trade was the only true “shocker” in terms of prospect packages, in my opinion. Going forward, the offseason will likely be the bigger source of prospect-involving mega deals between teams. In recent memory, those deals have had more effect on the Stash List than any deal done during the deadline.
The deadline and other in-season trades will still play a role in projecting 2025 prospect value. The addition of Rafael Devers to the Giants’ lineup slowed the momentum that Bryce Eldridge was building. On the other hand, the Ryan O’Hearn/Ramón Laureano deal opened up more playing time for Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers, who now look like everyday players for the O’s next season.
The main takeaway here is: don’t add/decrease value to a prospect because you think they’ll be traded at the deadline, because chances are they won’t be. However, being able to identify tradeable assets on rebuilding/struggling MLB teams and projecting who their replacement could be, can lead to finding some diamonds in the rough.
5. Stop Overvaluing “Same-Year” Draftees
For the second consecutive year, at least one draftee from either that season’s draft or from the year prior has featured prominently on the list for months. I was certain that Christian Moore would be called up to the Angels just months after the 2024 draft. Given the Angels’ track record and Moore’s blazing start to his professional career, could you blame me? This season, Carson Benge, JJ Wetherholt, and Jac Caglianone all spent multiple weeks in the top ten, and only one of them has made it to the majors. Despite the promotion of Caglianone, stashing him didn’t really pan out (.532 OPS in 52 games).
There is one notable exception to this argument. Like many others around baseball, I was very excited about Nick Kurtz and predicted that he’d become a very proficient everyday first baseman in the big leagues. On 4/20, I wrote “Spoiler alert: until Nick Kurtz is called up, he’s going to stay at the #1 spot on the list.” That lasted one singular week, as Kurtz was promoted in the following days. With 36 home runs, a 1.090 OPS, and a 170 wRC+, Kurtz is the runaway rookie of the year and one of the few success stories when it comes to stashing true rookies (<1 year removed from Draft)/second-year professionals.
Take nothing away from Kurtz; he’s been spectacular and is a big reason why I think the A’s could be a team to watch out for in 2026. That said, he’s an anomaly. For every Kurtz, there are ten “Caglianone” types. The name-recognition of recent draftees is significantly higher than prospects with three to four years in the minors under their belt because of the amount of Draft discourse there is during the summer and in the offseason. However, just because they’re more popular doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to be successful MLB players.
When a player like Kurtz comes around, pounce on it. However, when you start looking in the tier below, exercise more caution. Knowing me, I will likely fall into this trap again next year (Aiva Arquette looks enticing already), but I’m going to make a concerted effort not to get blinded by the exciting new prospects from the 2025 draft.
