I was looking for a potential pitching matchup this weekend that could possibly rival what we saw last night between Chris Sale and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. A matchup that might actually live up to the hype, as yesterday’s battle between a pair of the league’s best arms was able to do.
Steve Drumwright wrote about the fantastic Sale versus Yamamoto duel in Friday’s MLB News & Moments. Check that out for more details. I watched every pitch of that two-hour and 18-minute contest between Atlanta and Los Angeles, and, folks, that was the best game I’ve sat through all season. It had meaning (both teams were playing for home-field advantage in the NL) and intensity (all you had to do was look at Sale and Yoshinobu to see it). Combined, the two studs struck out 19 batters over 15 ⅓ frames of one-run ball. It was a thing of beauty and something this sport needs more of. Great pitching duels are so infrequent today, which made Atlanta’s 1-0 victory over the Dodgers worth every second of our attention.
So here I am searching for that potential encore this weekend, and I’ve got nothing. Sure, Tarik Skubal returns to Detroit to face his former squad in a Friday matchup with Tigers right-hander Drew Anderson. But, honestly, given that Detroit is 2-8 over its last 10 games, has fallen eight games behind in the AL Central, and is currently 5 ½ back in the AL wild card picture, I can’t get excited about a duel between the two-time CY Young winner and an unproven 32-year-old with just over 125 innings of major league experience under his belt. Therefore, that series will not make this weekend’s top-five list.
I also perused a few other series, hoping to find a worthy follow-up to Sale-Yamamoto, but I was unsuccessful. Maybe we’ll get another showdown like we saw last night in Atlanta, but finding one with the same pre-game hype isn’t in the cards this weekend. Instead, what we have in the upcoming top-five series list are matchups between 10 squads fighting for either wild-card spots, division titles, or, in the case of the NL Central-leading Brewers, home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Let’s begin with the no-doubt top series of the weekend taking place at Yankee Stadium.
No. 1: Red Sox (73-60) at Yankees (75-58)
Series length: Four games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *Doubleheader on Saturday
It’s late August. It’s a storied rivalry. It’s a fight for the American League’s top wild-card spot, and very possibly a preview of the best-of-3 ALWC. If the season ended today, this would be your No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup in the AL bracket, and a rematch of last year’s ALWC, which the Yankees won in three games.
For the last couple of months in MLB Series Preview, I’ve said a few times that I don’t think New York will catch Tampa Bay in the AL East. The Rays enter Friday with a four-game advantage over the Yanks, and every time it looks like New York is closing in on the division leaders, Tampa Bay increases its lead. The division title seems to lean toward the Rays, and given they are 6-3 versus the Pinstripes this year with one four-game series remaining between the squads coming in the last week of the regular season, I’m not seeing any change atop the AL East right now.
However, if New York or Boston (the Sox are currently six games behind Tampa Bay) has any shot at winning this division, they’ll first have to take care of business against each other. The Red Sox are 5-4 against New York, and with this being the last regular-season series between them, it goes without saying this could determine who gets home-field advantage in their likely playoff rematch coming soon.
Boston is two games behind the Yankees for the AL’s top wild-card position. If the Sox win this set, at the very least they will be tied with New York in the standings, or two games ahead if they sweep them. The last time these rivals met was at Fenway Park in late June. Boston swept that series, 4-0.
This should be a great weekend in the Bronx. It’s always fun when these teams battle in meaningful late-season contests. Here’s a look at the expected pitching matchups.
Friday: BOS – Patrick Sandoval (8 GS, 1-2, 4.54 ERA) versus NYY – Cam Schlittler (27 GS, 11-6, 2.16 ERA)
Saturday (Gm. 1): BOS – Jake Bennett (15 GS, 8-6, 3.49 ERA) versus NYY – Carlos Rodón (11 GS, 4-2, 3.15 ERA)
Saturday (Gm. 2): BOS – Brayan Bello (20 G, 8 GS, 5-6, 4.68 ERA) versus NYY – Max Fried (15 GS, 4-4, 2.81 ERA)
Sunday: BOS – Ranger Suarez (23 GS, 5-3, 3.35 ERA) versus NYY – Will Warren (8-6, 26 G, 25 GS, 4.39 ERA)
No. 2: Padres (72-62) at Rays (79-54)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
If I were to rank each series based on this weekend’s potentially best pitching matchups, this interleague battle probably gets the top spot. Keep in mind the word “potentially” because I’m not going to exaggerate the three expected duels below. They could be really good if San Diego’s starters pitch to their capabilities. Unfortunately, all of them have had their ups and downs this season, and if the Padres are going to win this set against the American League’s best team, they’ll likely need to match the top three SPs in the Rays rotation.
The probable matchups:
Friday: SD – Casey Mize (20 GS, 5-7, 3.44 ERA) versus TB – Shane McClanahan (22 GS, 9-6, 3.10 ERA)
Saturday: SD – Walker Buehler (26 GS, 8-6, 4.63 ERA) versus TB – Nick Martinez (25 GS, 13-4, 2.93 ERA)
Sunday: SD – Robbie Ray (26 G, 25 GS, 11-7, 3.21 ERA) versus TB – Drew Rasmussen (25 GS, 14-5, 2.95 ERA)
Something to keep an eye on with Tampa Bay going forward is their play at home. Yes, they still have the American League’s best home record at 43-23. However, in August, the Rays are 3-6 at Tropicana Field and have dropped three consecutive series on their turf to the White Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays.
San Diego has a 1 ½ game lead over Arizona for the third NL wild card position. No other team on the outside of the postseason picture is within 3 ½ games of the Friars.
No. 3: White Sox (70-63) at Twins (64-70)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
How do I phrase this politely, yet from the heart? That kind of sounds like something a person leads with when they are about to end a relationship. And in a way, that’s how I feel right now about the Twins. Let’s be honest: they are fortunate to be only four games back of a playoff spot, and if they were in the National League, they’d be about finished at eight games behind the final wild-card holder. This is a make-or-break series for me. If Minnesota loses this, I’m breaking ties with them, and maybe we’ll get back together sometime in 2027. If they beat the White Sox this weekend, then maybe we can work some things out, and this relationship can continue into September, even if short-lived.
The Twins are stinking it up right now, and their 8-15 record in August is the AL’s second-worst mark behind only the Athletics. Just when it looked like Minnesota was going to hang around in the AL Central with an impressive home sweep of Atlanta less than two weeks ago, they went on to lose five of their next six contests against the Padres and that team I just brought up whose record this month is even worse than their own, the Sacramento A’s. For me, that’s a sign of a franchise not worth keeping a relationship with right now.
Over the next two weeks, Minnesota faces all AL Central squads. They have two series versus the White Sox, two against the Tigers, and it ends with a home set with the surging Guardians. In other words, it’s now or never. The White Sox have a 4-3 record versus Minnesota.
Chicago is coming off a series win at home against the Rangers. I’ve got my eye on rookie outfielder Tristan Peters, who could break the franchise record for most consecutive contests with a long ball if he goes yard tonight. Peters is tied with teammate Munetaka Murakami and a bunch of others for the all-time rookie record for consecutive games with a homer. If he goes deep on Friday, he’ll break the rookie record and would be two homers shy of the all-time mark of eight held by three players. More importantly, the ChiSox lead the AL Central by 2 ½ games over Cleveland. The Guardians have won seven straight contests and host the Royals this weekend.
No. 4: Mariners (64-70) at Blue Jays (65-70)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I just discussed the idea of breaking up with the Twins. One could almost echo those same sentiments toward these once promising clubs. Less than a year ago, the Mariners and Blue Jays were going back-and-forth in a classic seven-game ALCS. Both franchises had high expectations coming into this season, and neither has come close to meeting those. It’s almost like they are a perfect match for each other, and I feel that this series will make or break one of them in the AL wild-card race. Toronto is 3 ½ games behind Cleveland for the final AL wild-card spot, while Seattle sits four back.
The good news for the Mariners is that they have more than one out in their quest for a return trip to the postseason. Given the state of the AL West, Seattle probably has a better shot of passing Texas and Houston to win that all-time bad division at three games back than they do of snagging the last AL wild card, which currently has six teams within four games fighting for one spot.
The same good news doesn’t apply to Toronto’s fate. They have only one way in: the third wild card. The biggest issue for the Jays, at 15 games out of the AL East picture, is that they have no realistic shot at even the second wild card, currently held by Boston. Of the six squads battling for the third WC position, only the Guardians are within seven games of the Sox (currently 5 ½ games behind). Therefore, if the Blue Jays are to sneak in somehow ahead of opponents like Seattle, they must play better against the league’s worst clubs. Toronto is coming off a series loss to the last-place Royals, and at the start of September, they have a nine-game road trip at Cleveland, followed by three-game sets at Kansas City and Sacramento. There’s no better opportunity than right now for the Blue Jays to make a run up the standings.
Even though they’re 11 games under .500 combined, this is a very important end-of-August series for both teams. Friday’s opener will pair Seattle’s Emerson Hancock (24 GS, 7-7, 3.37 ERA) and Toronto’s ace Dylan Cease (24 GS, 8-5, 2.37 ERA).
Rangers (66-68) at Brewers (83-51)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Maybe I have this series ranked too low on the list, considering the combined records of these franchises are far better than the clubs taking up spots No. 3 and No. 4. My main reason for doing so is because, other than Milwaukee trying to stave off Los Angeles and Atlanta for the NL’s best record (currently three games up on the Dodgers and four ahead of Atlanta), they really aren’t playing for too much the rest of the way. Or maybe, better said, they aren’t in danger of losing their NL Central lead anytime soon.
There was a period in mid-July when the Cubs appeared to be making a legitimate run at Milwaukee in the NL Central, but over the last month, they haven’t gained any serious ground on the three-time defending division champs, and because of that, the Brew Crew has the largest division lead in MLB at seven games. We’ll focus more on the Cubs-Brewers race starting Monday, when the teams meet in Chicago for a four-game series. Until then, let’s talk about what this weekend means for the visiting Rangers.
Texas is one game back of Houston for the AL West lead. The worst news for the Lone Stars is that if they tie Houston for the division lead at season’s end, the Astros will be the champs after winning nine of 13 meetings with Texas. The Rangers still have three games remaining against the other AL West contender, the Mariners. They’ll meet in a huge series at T-Mobile Park beginning on September 8.
Missed the Top Five
Diamondbacks (71-64) at Giants (55-79): Four games *Giants won Thursday’s opener, 6-1.
Marlins (68-66) at Nationals (63-73): Four games
Reds (63-71) at Cubs (76-58): Three games
Dodgers (80-54) at Tigers (62-71): Three games
Royals (60-75) at Guardians (68-66): Three games
Astros (67-67) at Mets (60-74): Three games
Rockies (52-82) at Atlanta (79-55): Three games
Pirates (65-70) at Cardinals (67-68): Three games
Phillies (74-60) at Angels (52-82): Three games
Orioles (65-69) at A’s (53-81): Three games
