We are here. The endgame. The final MLB Series Preview of the season. It’s been a fun ride. I’ve enjoyed piecing together my biweekly top-five series list. I’ve learned that it’s an exercise in adjustment. As the campaign has progressed, I’ve had to adjust my series rankings by importance more than anything else. The first half was all about the best matchups on paper, rivalries, early-season records, and so on. Over the last month, with the playoffs in sight, it’s been about the races more than anything else. And this weekend is no different. What you’ll see in the top-five list below are three series that involve one team officially eliminated from postseason contention. That doesn’t sound very exciting, but when you factor in how important it is for their opponents, there’s no other way around it.
As Steve Drumwright wrote today in MLB News & Moments, four teams clinched playoff spots on Thursday, and unfortunately, from a neutral fan’s perspective, one of those squads was the Padres. Had San Diego lost Thursday’s rubber game to the Dodgers, we would have a head-to-head situation between the Friars and Diamondbacks this weekend that would have easily taken the No. 1 slot below. It would have set up a scenario where Arizona could tie San Diego in the wild card race with a three-game sweep, and with that, take the season series and tiebreaker. Instead, because the Padres won 4-2 yesterday, they clinched a postseason berth, leaving only Philadelphia and Arizona to battle for the NL’s final playoff entrant. There’s still plenty to be settled on the field, but nothing would have been better than having at least one of our series below involve two clubs yet to clinch a spot in next week’s postseason.
My rankings this weekend came down to who has clinched a playoff berth, and who hasn’t. With 10 teams already punching their ticket to October (I guess not technically, since the wild-card round is in September, but you get the idea), the top four series feature two clubs from each league fighting for playoff spots. It’s all about the AL West and NL wild card. After that, all that’s really left to be determined is seeding order between the NL wild card squads as well as the AL Central race between Cleveland and Chicago (the winner gets the AL’s No. 2 seed and a bye to the ALDS).
Let’s begin.
No. 1: Astros (79-80) at Athletics (63-96)
Series length: Four games (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday) *Astros won Thursday’s opener, 7-5.
My goodness. If you told me a month ago that the A’s would find a spot in the top five on the final weekend of the regular season, I would have found that very difficult to believe. In fact, if it weren’t for the worst close division race of all time between two losing clubs, Houston and Texas, this series would be nowhere near the top five, let alone at No. 1. As our journey together comes to its conclusion, I cringe a bit putting this matchup at No. 1, but there’s really no other choice. The Astros’ fate is in their hands. It doesn’t matter what Texas does versus Minnesota this weekend (see No. 2 below) as long as Houston takes care of business against the American League’s second-worst squad.
If the playoffs started today, Houston would be the AL West champs (won season series with Texas, 9-4) and the AL’s No. 3 seed. The ‘Stros will go with their ace, Hunter Brown, in Friday’s opener. Brown dealt with a shoulder strain early in the season that kept him out from April to mid-June. For the year, he’s 6-3 with a 3.26 ERA over 102 innings pitched. He’ll face Sacramento’s Jacob Lopez (26 GS, 23 GS, 6-5, 5.68 ERA).
Based on Nick Pollack’s SP Streamer Rankings for this weekend, here are the expected pitching matchups for Saturday and Sunday:
Saturday: HOU – Hayden Wesneski (10 GS, 5-2, 3.50 ERA) versus ATH – Jack Perkins (36 G, 16 GS, 3-12, 5.90 ERA)
Sunday: HOU – Ronel Blanco (7 G, 5 GS, 0-1, 7.11 ERA) versus ATH – Brady Basso (25 G, 7 GS, 1-3, 5.36 ERA)
Then we have Yordan Alvarez’s Triple Crown quest. He’s in great shape for the batting title (leads Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson, .315 to .308). He’s in decent shape for the home run title (4-way tie with Junior Caminero, Pete Alonso, and Ben Rice). Unfortunately, he trails Alonso by eight ribbies, 110-102. I’ll give Alvarez a shot at Alonso given that he won’t be sitting out at all this weekend unless Houston clinches the division before Sunday. If he’s playing in three meaningful games, while the Rays likely sit Caminero for at least one contest, and the Yanks do the same with Rice, then maybe Yordan goes off and claims all three categories and becomes the first Triple Crown winner since Miguel Cabrera in 2012.
After Thursday’s victory, Houston is 5-5 versus the A’s this season. If you’re an Astros fan, you have to like the fact that Sacramento is an MLB-worst 31-47 at their home park. Meanwhile, for as mediocre an overall record as they have, the ‘Stros are 40-38 on the road. There’s no excuse for Houston to split or lose this series.
No. 2: Rangers (79-80) at Twins (75-84)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
The good news for Texas is that they will have 27 years of experience between their three expected starting pitchers in this series. Jacob deGrom gets the ball in Friday’s opener, followed likely by Jordan Montgomery, and ending with MacKenzie Gore on Sunday. The bad news is that Montgomery hasn’t made a start this year due to elbow surgery (season debut in August), and Gore hasn’t tossed more than 77 pitches in a game over his last four starts. Texas lost veteran Cal Quantrill for the season (9-5, 2.86 ERA), who would have definitely started in this series if not for a right lat strain a week ago. Nathan Eovaldi missed some time with elbow soreness and hasn’t pitched more than four innings in any of his four outings since returning from the IL earlier this month. He could start ahead of Montgomery on Saturday, but if not, he is expected to appear in that contest at some point.
The bottom line: The Rangers rotation is a mess. If deGrom doesn’t come through with a solid performance in the opener, this club could have some serious issues this weekend in Minnesota. It also doesn’t help in the confidence department that Texas is only 34-44 on the road, and in their only other meeting with Minnesota at Globe Life Field in June, the Twins walked away with a 3-0 sweep.
Expected pitching matchups:
Friday: TEX – Jacob deGrom (30 GS, 11-10, 3.86 ERA) versus MIN – Joe Ryan (26 GS, 6-10, 3.83 ERA)
Saturday: TEX – Jordan Montgomery (12 G, 0 GS, 1-0, 4.63 ERA) versus MIN – Bailey Ober (24 G, 23 GS, 7-6, 4.21 ERA)
Sunday: TEX – MacKenzie Gore (33 GS, 8-11, 4.59 ERA) versus MIN – Dean Kremer (16 GS, 4-5, 4.97 ERA)
There’s only one way into the postseason for Texas. They must win more games this weekend than Houston.
No. 3: Diamondbacks (85-74) at Padres (89-70)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
As I mentioned earlier, this was the series I wanted to slot in at No. 1 had San Diego not clinched on Thursday. Instead, I’ve moved it down to No. 3, and what we do have is at least a situation where the importance scale is still high for both franchises. Yes, the Padres know they are playing next week regardless of how this series goes. However, with only a one-game advantage over Chicago for the NL’s No. 4 seed, they still do not know where they will be playing next week. If San Diego finishes ahead of Chicago and Philadelphia in the standings, they will host one of those clubs in the Best-of-3 NLWC. If they tie either club, then the tiebreaker is not in their favor after going a combined 1-11 versus the Cubs and Phillies. Yikes!
Arizona’s situation is a little more complex. They must gain two games on Philadelphia this weekend (see No. 4 series below). That means if Arizona sweeps this series at Petco Park, they’ll claim the NL’s final wild card position only if Philadelphia loses at least two of three contests at home to the Rays. The Snakes could also get in with a 2-1 series win, as long as the Rays sweep the Phillies. If Arizona and Philadelphia tie for the final wild card spot, then Arizona gets in via the second tiebreaker (intra-division record) because the clubs split their season series, 3-3. Arizona is 31-18 in the NL West (results versus San Diego this weekend won’t affect potential tiebreaker with Philadelphia), while the Phillies finished 28-24 against the NL East.
As I’ve said before, this is exactly why I hope MLB brings back tiebreaker Game 163 someday soon. Settle it on the field, and that way tiebreakers, like the potential one we have this weekend, would only determine who hosts that final game on Monday to decide postseason entry.
Expected pitching matchups:
Friday: ARI – Brandon Pfaadt (28 G, 18 GS, 7-3, 3.72 ERA) versus SD – Casey Mize (25 GS, 6-9, 3.96 ERA)
Saturday: ARI – Corbin Burnes (3 GS, 0-0, 7.84 ERA) versus SD – Walker Buehler (31 GS, 9-6, 4.56 ERA)
Sunday: ARI – Michael Soroka (21 GS, 20 G, 9-5, 3.31 ERA) versus SD – Michael King (32 GS, 12-10, 3.21 ERA)
No. 4: Rays (96-63) at Phillies (87-72)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
I do wonder what Phillies fans will think of interim manager Don Mattingly if their team ends up blowing a two-game lead with three contests to play. Remember, this was a franchise with high expectations coming into ’26, and after a slow start, they fired their former skipper, Rob Thomson, way back in April. It was Mattingly who took over and was praised for leading the Phils back into contention. Now? I don’t think many pundits thought at the start of September, when Philadelphia was comfortably 5 ½ games clear of the first team out of the NL playoff picture (Arizona), that they would be in a situation where they’d be fighting for their postseason lives in the final weekend of the regular season.
The Phils have only themselves to blame for this potential catastrophe after going 9-12 so far this month. After losing two of three contests this week to the NL’s best team, the Milwaukee Brewers, they now welcome the American League’s top club in what is going to be an interesting situation for the Rays.
Tampa Bay has locked up the AL’s No. 1 seed. They have nothing left to play for. The Rays have no shot at catching Milwaukee for MLB’s best record, which may have added a little bit of incentive for them in this series. They still have a shot at MLB’s second-best record if they can gain a game on the Dodgers this weekend. Let’s be honest, Milwaukee may be the best team in MLB by record, but the Dodgers are still the favorites to get back to the World Series. Knowing that, Tampa Bay might be thinking about a potential Fall Classic matchup with the two-time defending World Series champs. If so, why not make sure they at least have home-field advantage in that potential matchup?
However, I don’t see any reason the AL East champs would deploy their best options throughout this series. All that matters to them is resting up for the ALDS next weekend. Saying that, this is still the Rays. They will not hand this series over to the Phillies without a fight. Even though they couldn’t care less about the NL’s final wild card team, there’s still something sweet about knocking out a World Series-capable franchise with high expectations before the postseason begins. If the Rays do knock out the Phillies, and Arizona finds its way in, I would think a nice gifty could be heading to Tampa Bay via Arizona’s principal owner, Ken Kendrick.
Expected pitching matchups:
Friday: TB – Freddy Peralta (31 GS, 9-11, 4.56 ERA) versus PHI – Cristopher Sánchez (32 GS, 18-6, 2.93 ERA)
Saturday: TB – Griffin Jax (33 G, 22 GS, 8-10, 3.62 ERA) versus PHI – José Urquidy (12 G, 1 GS, 2-2, 4.54 ERA)
Sunday: TB – Nick Martinez (30 GS, 15-5, 2.94 ERA) versus PHI – Zack Wheeler (27 GS, 13-5, 3.06 ERA)
No. 5: Guardians (83-76) at Royals (68-91)
Series length: Three games (Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
Now we arrive at No. 5. It was between this series and the other one involving an AL Central club fighting for a division title. Both Cleveland and Chicago will be guaranteed a spot in the 2026 postseason. What we don’t know yet is which franchise will get a bye to the ALDS as the league’s No. 2 seed. That’s a lot to play for, and even though the pressure for the Guardians and White Sox this weekend is nowhere near what it is for Houston and Texas in their fight for the AL West title, given the punishment for the loser, I would be surprised if either team rests its top players on Sunday if this race is still up for grabs.
As it stands on Friday, Cleveland has a one-game lead over the ChiSox, but Chicago owns the tiebreaker after going 7-6 in their head-to-head meetings. I have this series at No. 5 ahead of Chicago-Colorado because, like the Astros, Cleveland’s fate is in their own hands. Win the same number of games as the White Sox this weekend, and they are the division champs. Lose a game in the standings to Chicago, and the Guardians will be the AL’s No. 6 seed and travel west to play either Houston or Texas.
If there was any doubt about Cleveland using ace Gavin Williams in this series, knowing full well that he wouldn’t be available for a potential ALWC Game 1 if the Guardians lose the AL Central, you can put that to rest. Williams will start in Friday’s opener with a chance at passing Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski for the MLB strikeout lead. Misiorowski leads Williams in the K-department, 247-244. The Miz is expected to start on Sunday versus the Cardinals, but I’m sure his pitch count will be limited since he will undoubtedly be the Game 1 starter in next Saturday’s NLDS.
Cleveland is 5-5 versus Kansas City this season.
Expected pitching matchups:
Friday: CLE – Gavin Williams (31 GS, 14-8, 3.63 ERA) versus KC – Noah Cameron (30 G, 29 GS, 9-8, 3.92 ERA)
Saturday: CLE – Tanner Bibee (32 GS, 6-15, 4.35 ERA) versus KC – Michael Wacha (31 GS, 9-9, 3.33 ERA)
Sunday: CLE – Parker Messick (31 GS, 12-9, 2.55 ERA) versus KC – Daniel Lynch IV (55 G, 9 GS, 6-6, 4.13 ERA)
Missed the Top Five
Rockies (57-102) at White Sox (82-77): Three games – A lot at stake for Chicago as they try to catch Cleveland in the AL Central against the worst modern-day franchise MLB has. The Rockies are on a four-year 100-loss season streak. Honestly, that makes what the White Sox accomplished by becoming the only franchise ever to make the playoffs after consecutive triple-digit loss seasons all the more remarkable. Maybe the Rockies will look across the field at this young White Sox club and say, “Yeah. If they can do it, we can do it too.” Or, more likely, they’ll make it five straight 100-loss campaigns if there’s a full season in 2027.
Cubs (88-71) at Red Sox (85-74): Three games – It’s one of two series this weekend that will have a Friday doubleheader due to a rainy forecast on Sunday. As I’m writing this, Boston and Chicago are playing the first of two contests at Fenway Park today. Chicago needs as many wins as they can muster in this series if they want home field advantage next week in the NLWC. The good news for Chicago is that they own the tiebreaker with San Diego, Philly, and Arizona. As for Boston…I’m sticking with my Monday theory that the Sox are far better off getting the AL’s No. 6 seed than they are traveling to Yankee Stadium for a three-game series next week. That could happen if Boston gets swept in this series and ends up in a three-way tie with Cleveland and Chicago. Boston would lose that tiebreaker situation and would take on the AL West champion instead of New York. Sounds like an easier path to the ALCS to me.
Orioles (78-81) at Yankees (92-67): Three games – Baltimore tried to stay alive after sweeping the Blue Jays this week, but ultimately their fate was sealed after the White Sox and Guardians claimed playoff berths. Going forward, all that matters for the Yankees is health. Will Aaron Judge play in next week’s ALWC? At this point, it’s day-to-day.
Cardinals (77-82) at Brewers (100-59): Three games – A nice rivalry with very little excitement this weekend. Milwaukee’s postseason positioning is sealed, and so is a fourth-place finish for St. Louis in the NL Central.
Dodgers (97-62) at Giants (65-94): Three games – The Dodgers are the NL’s No. 2 seed and the Giants are guaranteed to have six losing months in what has been a pitiful ’26 campaign.
Angels (61-98) at Mariners (74-85): Four games – Anaheim won Thursday’s opener, 6-4, against arguably the most disappointing team as far as preseason expectations are concerned. I think Seattle’s offseason will be one of the most interesting to follow.
Pirates (81-78) at Tigers (74-85): Three games – Look at the bright side, Pirates fans – your team is guaranteed to not have a losing record for the first time since 2018.
Mets (73-86) at Nationals (75-84): Three games – At least the Nationals can say to the Mets that they were in postseason contention entering August. Unlike MLB’s second-highest payroll franchise, Washington at least met expectations.
Reds (74-85) at Blue Jays (77-82): Three games – A disappointing season for the defending AL champions will end with a losing record and a lot of offseason decisions to make. Toronto’s opponent in this series will also miss the playoffs after making it last year.
Atlanta (93-66) at Marlins (78-81): Three games – Atlanta will likely rest most of its big names at some point this weekend and get ready to host whichever club ends up as the NL’s No. 6.
