Before the season began, the Pitcher List staff convened to select our preseason predictions. We covered everything from division winners, award winners, statistical leaders, overperformers, and underachievers.
Now that the first half is in the books, let’s return to page one. What’s made the staff look like Nostradamus, and who’s forced us to eat crow?
Division Winners
Who will win the American League East?
PL Staff Predicted: Baltimore Orioles (32 votes, 78%)
Currently in first: Baltimore Orioles (58-38), 1 game ahead of the New York Yankees
We were an Alex Verdugo misplay in the bottom of the ninth on Sunday away from starting our recap with some egg on the PL staff’s face. But thanks to it, the Orioles end the first half atop the AL East, and the staff starts 1-for-1.
Being 58-38 with five All-Stars and an MVP-like season from shortstop Gunnar Henderson syncs with the staff’s preseason predilection. What doesn’t quite jive with that guess is Baltimore’s play as of late. The O’s are 21-19 over their last 40 games, were outscored 21-2 last week against the Chicago Cubs, and are without pitchers Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Félix Bautista for the season. They will need helping hands to push them over the finish line.
With the Yankees one game back and coming off a series win against Baltimore, it’s fair to wonder which team we see in the second half. The team who started 32-18, or the team struggling down the stretch.
Who will win the American League Central?
PL Staff Predicted: Minnesota Twins (23 votes, 56.1%)
Currently in first: Cleveland Guardians (58-37), 4.5 games ahead of the Minnesota Twins
Here, we have our first of many upsets. The Guardians lead the AL Central, not the Minnesota Twins. While an understandable pick at the time, Cleveland’s control of the Central isn’t new. Discounting 2023, Cleveland has finished either first or second in the Central every season since 2016. The division almost feels like their birthright.
Though second in the division, Minnesota still has the time and opportunity to usurp Cleveland. The club is just 4½ games back with eight games still to play against the Guardians. If they can continue to get hot streaks from the likes of Jose Miranda and receive reinforcements at the deadline, they might sit atop the throne again.
Who will win the American League West?
PL Staff Predicted: Houston Astros (23 votes, 56.1%)
Currently in first: Seattle Mariners (52-46), 1 game ahead of the Houston Astros
This pick was destined for a place on the Freezing Cold Takes mantle by the end of May. Houston was 25-33 and closer to the 21-36 last-place Los Angeles Angels than the 32-27 first-place Mariners. Since then, the Astros have changed their fate. Their 25-13 record since June 1 has rocketed them to 50-46, one game shy of Seattle for first place. It’s a remarkable turnaround.
Completing the comeback isn’t a guarantee, however. Seattle’s pitching ranks third in baseball, and its starting pitching stands second, making them more than capable of keeping Houston on the launchpad. The Mariners offense, not so much. They rank 27th in runs scored, only worse are the Rays, Marlins, and White Sox. The Mariners aren’t in esteemed company.
Only time will tell if the Mariners drown or the Astros fail to launch.
Who will win the National League East?
PL Staff Predicted: Atlanta (39 votes, 95.1%)
Currently in first: Philadelphia Phillies (62-34), 8.5 games ahead of Atlanta
For six years, the NL East ran through Atlanta. 2024 looks to offer a different result. Atlanta is 53-42 and eight-and-a-half games back of the first-place Phillies. It’s a somewhat familiar deficit for Atlanta, who was 10.5 games back of the New York Mets in 2022 before rallying to win the division. Atlanta could achieve these feats back then. But now, without Ronald Acuña Jr. or Spencer Strider, the prospect feels daunting, and this prediction is yet another one off-the-mark.
Who will win the National League Central?
PL Staff Predicted: Chicago Cubs (20 votes, 50%)
Currently in first: Milwaukee Brewers (55-42), 4.5 games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals
It was easy to buy into the Cubs entering 2024. The team finished one win shy of the playoffs last year, added pitcher Shota Imanaga, re-signed outfielder Cody Bellinger, and pried away manager Craig Counsell from the Brewers. The Cubs win flag was flying all offseason long, and it figured to get plenty of mileage during the season.
Reality, however, often differs from dreams. The Cubs are 47-51 and last in the NL Central. Instead, the Brewers, Counsell’s former team, are in first. Milwaukee might have a new head chef, but the recipe remains the same: Strong starting pitching, a buoyant bullpen, and a quality offense bolstered by a resurgent Christian Yelich. They might not be the most exciting team, but they’ve led the Central for 86 days. Milwaukee has to prove it will fail. We cannot wait for it.
That said, the Brewers don’t lord over the Central unquestionably. The Cardinals are just 4½ games back, 19-11 over their last 30, and have six games left to play against the Brew Crew. It’s not an impossible hill to climb for the Cards, but it may be for the Cubs, even with a 7-3 record over their last 10.
Who will win the National League West?
PL Staff Predicted: Los Angeles Dodgers (41 votes, 100%)
Currently in first: Los Angeles Dodgers (56-41), 7 games ahead of the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Surprise, surprise. The Dodgers remain firmly in control of the NL West. However, instead of dwelling on the obvious, let’s acknowledge that the Dodgers aren’t the Monstars. Not right now, at least. Mookie Betts might not return until the beginning of August, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is now on the 60-day IL due to an injury that’s sidelined him since June 16, Max Muncy hasn’t played since May, and Tyler Glasnow is now on the shelf. Their IL is more expensive and more talented than the Oakland Athletics. And yet the Dodgers have a seven-game lead in the West and the second-best record in the NL.
Pennant Winners
Who will win the ALCS?
PL Staff Predicted: Baltimore Orioles (22 votes, 55%)
Best Record in the American League: Cleveland Guardians (58-37)
The PL Staff picked six teams to win the ALCS. The Orioles led the way, followed by the Mariners, Yankees, Rangers, and even the Royals. No one predicted the Guardians to be in the conversation, yet here we are. Steven Kwan is hitting .352 with a .950 OPS, José Ramírez is tied for the second-most RBI in baseball with 77, and David Fry has a 141 OPS+. Yes. David Fry.
Just as shocking as Cleveland being here is the how. It’s usually strong starting pitching stands 25th in ERA, while the bullpen ranks first, with seven relievers rocking a sub-3.75 ERA. The Guardians aren’t perfect, but we should accept them as a serious contender.
That’s not to dismiss the Orioles or the Yankees. Like the Guardians, both have 58 wins. Baltimore matches Cleveland’s five All-Stars, and the Yankees continuously yank them out of the playoffs, eliminating them in 2017, 2020, and 2022. There’s still time and reason for the predictable to come to pass. But maybe Cleveland will continue to toss our preseason projections into the paper shredder.
Who will win the NLCS?
PL Staff Predicted: Atlanta (21 votes, 52.5%)
Best Record in the National League: Philadelphia Phillies (62-34)
When will the world learn to stop doubting the Philadelphia Phillies? All they do is defy the odds, beating Atlanta’s 101-win team in the 2022 NL Division Series, its 104-win team in the 2023 NLDS, and now the PL staff’s preseason selection. Philly stands alone atop the NL, and it’s not that close. Its next closest competition is the 56-41 Dodgers, but after sweeping L.A. in a three-game set just last week, the gap between the two teams has never felt larger. Speaking of Philly …
World Series
Who Will Win the 2024 World Series?
PL Staff Predicted: Atlanta (17 votes, 42.5%)
Best Record in Baseball: Philadelphia Phillies (62-34)
Having the best record in baseball doesn’t always equate to a World Series appearance or win. Just ask Atlanta’s 2023 team, the 2022 Dodgers, and the Giants’ 107-win season in 2021. Past greatness doesn’t matter in a cruel, uncaring October. It’s true.
It’s also true that the Phillies have to be considered World Series favorites. Their .755 team OPS is tied for third, their 3.41 team ERA is second, and they’re loaded all over the field. Bryce Harper should be in contention for the NL MVP, Zack Wheeler is the favorite for NL Cy Young, Trea Turner is back to his old self, and Alec Bohm has evolved into an elite offensive player. Oh! And four of their starters are in the top 10 of ERA among all NL starting pitchers. Philadelphia has it all, including, at long last, a capable bullpen ranking 13th in baseball. It’s their year. The sun only needs to shine upon them.
Award Winners
Who will win the AL Cy Young?
PL Staff Predicted: Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles (13 votes, 33%)
Current Favorite: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers.
Picture the night sky. Prevailing darkness lies inside it. It can be unending, daunting, and all-consuming. But peppered through the obsidian-colored blanket are the stars. They guide wayward travelers, inspire philosophers, and give hope. That is, more or less, what Tarik Skubal is to the Detroit Tigers: A piece of salvation amidst the shade. Skubal carries a league-leading 2.41 ERA and 0.88 WHIP while standing second among all AL starters in fWAR and FIP, third in K/9, and fourth in wins.
While Corbin Burnes lags behind Skubal, he’s still in the Cy Young conversation. Burnes’ 2.43 ERA is second in the AL, while his 1.04 WHIP is ninth, alongside his 2.6 fWAR and 3.37 FIP.
Who will win the NL Cy Young?
PL Staff Predicted: Spencer Strider, Atlanta (22 votes, 56%)
Current Favorite: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
Let’s give the staff a mulligan here. No one thought or wanted to consider a 2024 season without Spencer Strider.
In many ways, Wheeler winning a Cy Young feels overdue. He’s led all starters in fWAR since 2021, finished second in NL Cy Young voting in 2021, and sixth in voting in 2023. A Cy Young should be on Wheeler’s shelf at some point, it only feels right. And this might be the year it happens. The 34-year-old is second among all NL starters in ERA this season, third in WHIP, seventh in fWAR, and 11th in FIP. He’s ripped through opposing lineups almost without challenge, save for poor starts against the Miami Marlins and Orioles.
Chris Sale also deserves consideration. The southpaw has sliced through opposing lineups like scissors through a sweat-stained jersey, as has his Atlanta teammate Reynaldo López and Wheeler’s teammate Ranger Suárez. Don’t rule out Paul Skenes either. Award voters love a story, and what better story is there in baseball than Skenes?
Who will win the AL MVP?
PL Staff Predicted: Juan Soto, New York Yankees (12 votes, 30%)
Current Favorite: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
In other years, Soto would be the favorite for this award. The outfielder has been exceptional in his first year as a Yankee, accounting for 23 home runs, 66 RBIs, a .985 OPS, and a 175 OPS+. He has been everything the Yankees could’ve wanted, and at first glance, it seems like an MVP might finally come his way.
Unfortunately for Soto, his teammate Judge exists. The towering behemoth continues to be a bogeyman for pitchers, slashing .306/.433/.679 with a 1.112 OPS, the highest in baseball. His 34 home runs before the All-Star break are a franchise record and have him on pace to be at or eclipse 61, allowing Judge to match or surpass his own historic single-season standard in 2022. Judge won the MVP that season. He should do so again this year.
Sadly, neither Soto’s nor Judge’s heroics will matter if the Yankees can’t right the ship. It’ll be one more individual honor for a fanbase starving to celebrate the collective.
Who will win the NL MVP?
PL Staff Predicted: Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta (13 votes, 32.5%)
Current Favorite: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
What more can you say about Ohtani? We’ve run out of verbs, adverbs, compliments, similes, and metaphors to describe him. Yet, just because we’ve run out of things to say doesn’t diminish his accomplishments. He leads the NL in fWAR, wRC, wRC+, OPS, home runs, runs, and slugging percentage. MLB is Ohtani’s domain. Very few challenge him or put the wonder of his accomplishments into words. No matter how much he makes us try.
Ronald Acuña inspires similar awe, but unfortunately, baseball’s been and will be deprived of his talents for the season.
Who will win AL Rookie of the Year?
PL Staff Predicted: Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers (18 votes, 45%)
Current Favorite: Wyatt Langford
Much like the Gregorian calendar, there’s a before and after period with Langford. Before his injury on May 6, the former Florida Gator slashed .224/.295/.293 with a .588 OPS. His power bat had manifested just one home run (an inside-the-parker), and his run production boiled down to 11 RBI.
Since returning May 28 from injury, Langford has raised his AL Rookie of the Year bid from the grave. The 22-year-old is slashing .276/.335/.454 with four home runs, 29 RBIs, a 117 wRC+, and a .789 OPS in 41 games. The only hitters on the Rangers with better numbers than Langford since then are Corey Seager and Josh Smith. Langford has found his niche and filled it.
As has Yankees pitcher Luis Gil. The right-hander boasts a team-leading 3.17 ERA and a 1.085 WHIP with a 28.2 K% and an opposing batting average of .170. Gil has climbed the summit and become one of New York’s stalwarts. Standing in his way of an AL Rookie of the Year award are three straight starts from June 20 to July 2. Gil allowed 16 earned runs during these starts and his ERA ballooned from 2.77 to 3.41. Though his numbers look better after back-to-back quality starts, Langford remains locked in first.
Who will win NL Rookie of the Year?
PL Staff Predicted: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers (17 votes, 42.5%)
Current Favorite: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Before Yamamoto’s injury last month, the staff had this one in the bag. Through his 14 starts, the 25-year-old compiled a 2.92 ERA, 137 ERA+, 2.69 FIP, and 2.2 fWAR with 84 strikeouts and a 6-2 record. If you removed his disastrous start against the San Diego Padres, Yamamoto would tout a 2.34 ERA, 2.65 FIP, and an opposing OPS of .593. Had he stayed healthy or seemed on the verge of returning, Yamamoto would be a surefire favorite.
With neither being true, voting looks like a three-man race between Pirates phenom pitcher Skenes, Cubs star pitcher Shota Imanaga, and San Diego’s stud outfielder Jackson Merrill.
Skenes stands out as the favorite amongst the three due to his seemingly unimpeachable domination of MLB. The right-hander carries a 1.90 ERA, second-best in baseball since his May 11 debut, and is the first player in MLB history to be taken No. 1 overall and then be an All-Star the following year. Should he continue to pitch like this, Rookie of the Year isn’t the only race Skenes might find himself in.
Miscellaneous
Which reliever will finish first in saves?
PL Staff Predicted: Tie, Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians, and Edwin Diaz, New York Mets (10 votes, 25% each)
Current Saves Leader: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals.
It’s been a tale of two closers for the PL staff’s picks.
Clase has enjoyed the best of times. So far, the right-hander has 29 saves, a 0.81 ERA, 499 ERA+, and a 0.677 WHIP. He’s an All-Star and could finish with several AL Cy Young votes if he continues his pace. Diaz, however, has had the worst of times. He is stuck with a 4.05 ERA with five blown saves. Diaz also sustained a shoulder impingement that led to an IL stint and a 10-game suspension for sticky stuff.
Despite their differences, the two have one thing in common: Neither leads the sport in saves. That honor belongs to Helsley. The 29-year-old has vaulted almost everything in his way this season. Helsley has 32 saves, a 2.36 ERA, 178 ERA+, and 10.3 SO/9. Has Helsley pitched better than Clase? No. Is he as deserving of praise as Clase? Yes.
Which team(s) that made the playoffs last year will miss it this year?
PL Staff Predicted: Miami Marlins (17 votes, 57%)
2023 Playoff Teams Not Currently In A Playoff Spot: Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, and Toronto Blue Jays
The PL staff can pat itself on the back here. The Marlins aren’t just missing the playoffs. They and their 33-63 record are bound for one of the worst seasons in the franchise’s 32-year history. With Luis Arraez gone and Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Josh Bell on the trade block, the Marlins’ roster and season will collide with a TNT factory. The only way they make the playoffs is if the 14 NL teams better than them disappear over the Bermuda Triangle.
Those teams in peril of the same dubious honor don’t face the same inevitable implosion. Or, at least, not to the same degree. Toronto and its 44-52 is bound for turnover, but most other teams are still alive. Arizona and Houston are above .500, while Tampa Bay and Texas are at or barely below it. They’ll enter the second half with a chance at the postseason. Miami and Toronto will enter with a chance of winning the first overall pick in the draft lottery.
Who will be the most disappointing team this season?
PL Staff Predicted: Texas Rangers (11 votes, 27.5%)
It doesn’t get more disappointing for the Rangers than going from winning the World Series to being 7½ games back of a wild card. There are a few factors in Texas’ turmoil — Max Scherzer missed nearly the first three months of the season, while ace Jacob deGrom, starter Tyler Mahle, and 2023 All-Star third baseman Josh Jung are still recovering from their injuries.
Playing without your starting third baseman and three starters is a hole any team would struggle to climb, but the Rangers can’t just blame their injuries.
Second baseman Marcus Semien’s .701 OPS hasn’t helped, nor has catcher Jonah Heim’s .653 mark, or outfielder Adolis García’s .689 OPS. The Rangers are 46-50. To match last year’s 90-win season, they’ll have to go 44-22 down the stretch. It’s an understandably disappointing season that might see the Rangers become the first team since the 2019 Boston Red Sox to go from winning the World Series to missing the playoffs.
Most underrated team this season?
PL Staff Predicted: Detroit Tigers (8 votes, 20%)
Thirteen teams received votes for this award. The 58-37 Guardians were not one of them. One could discount the Guardians from this honor. They finished second in our AL Central voting but received 16 fewer votes than the Twins and didn’t receive a single vote in this category. It was easy to doubt Cleveland with the club’s 76-86 finish in 2023, but the 2024 Guardians are a different beast for the reasons previously outlined.
The Red Sox also deserve some credit. Boston is 30-19 over its last 50 games and impossibly stands 4½ games back of first in the AL East. And that’s without Triston Casas, Vaughn Grissom, Garrett Whitlock, Trevor Story, and Lucas Giolito. Jarren Duran is knocking on the door of superstardom, pitching coach Andrew Bailey continues to sprinkle pixie dust on the pitching staff, and Boston is in position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2021.