From the Window to the Waldschmidt
Ryan Waldschmidt (ARI): 2-4, HR, R, 3 RBI.
Ryan Waldschmidt got on the board last night with his first career major league homer. He did so as part of an absolute barrage by the Diamondbacks offense against A’s pitching in Arizona, as the Diamondbacks erupted for 15 runs. Waldschmidt finished at 2-4, HR, R, 3 RBI for the night. His big night lifted his season line to .260/.308/.374, good for an 86 wRC+ over his first 144 plate appearances.
Last night, Waldschmidt had the hardest-hit ball of the night, a line drive single at 108.6 mph. His homer came in the 5th inning off A’s reliever Yunior Tur, turning on an elevated inside fastball and crushing it 426 feet to left-center. Waldschmidt’s homer was the third of the inning and fifth of the game for the Diamondbacks. Waldschmidt had two softer-hit fly balls as well. He’s getting the ball in the air consistently in the majors with a 17.2-degree average launch angle. He hasn’t had strong exit velos yet, but he’s pulling 24.1% of his batted balls in the air, so even average power will play with an Isaac Paredes-style batted ball distribution.
Waldschmidt’s main challenge in the majors has been an elevated strikeout rate at 34.7%. He has a .211 ISO in his most recent recall, but that’s easily influenced in the small, 22-PA sample – he’s got a double and a homer in 5 hits. What’s concerning is that he’s been striking out even more, adding 10 Ks for a 45.5% K rate. The hope is that this is just an adjustment period or small-sample noise. Waldschmidt’s minor league strikeout rate is below 20%, so this would be an unusually large increase if he settled in above 30% in the majors. He’s swinging and chasing more in the bigs, although his chase rate is still a perfectly fine 25.4%. He’s missing on a lot of pitches outside the zone, though. We only have public o-/z-contact numbers for Triple-A, where Waldschmidt made contact on 46.6% of chase swings. He’s down to a 29.9% oContact in the bigs, leading to a 14.1% swinging strike rate. Getting closer to his minor league chase rates or contact rates outside the zone will be a key for Waldschmidt in the future.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday…
Corbin Carroll (ARI): 2-4, 3B, HR, 2 R, RBI.
It’s hard to imagine the Diamondbacks scoring two touchdowns and Carroll not being involved. He had four hard-hit balls on the night, and his two hits were the softest of them. Carroll’s triple left the bat at 99.8 mph, a fly ball to center that Lawrence Butler couldn’t reel in, and his homer was a 100 mph fly to left off Gage Jump in a case of left-on-left violence. Carroll’s hardest-hit ball of the night was a scorched 106.8 mph grounder in the first that turned into a double play.
James McCann (ARI): 3-4, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB.
McCann was in the lineup as Adrian Del Castillo sat against the lefty Jump. McCann has reverse splits in very limited time this year, but he’s a 101 wRC+ hitter against lefties for his career vs 75 wRC+ against righties. Last night, though, he did his damage indiscriminately. McCann welcomed Tur to the game with a 106.7 mph two-run homer after picking up a single and a walk in his two chances vs Jump.
Joey Ortiz (MIL): 3-3, 2B, 3B, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB, SB.
Ortiz was a homer short of a cycle against the Mets last night. He didn’t get a chance to complete the cycle, as he walked and stole second in his final trip to the plate. He got his revenge by making an excellent diving stop on the infield grass to end the game and preserve a one-run victory for the Brewers. Ortiz’s season line of .239/.310/.352 is 15 percent worse than league average, but that’s a significant improvement on his 2025. So long as the glove stays elite, which it has been for 2+ years at this point, Ortiz will be a useful regular even if he’s not living up to his prospect hype at the plate.
Brooks Lee (MIN): 2-5, HR, R, 4 RBI.
Lee continued his strong 2026 season with his 15th homer of the year, a three-run shot in the fourth inning. Lee got a sinker up-and-away, and sent it out to right-center at 100.4 mph. He also had a hard-hit RBI single in the third inning. Lee doesn’t have standout exit velos, sitting in the 32nd percentile in MLB and with a 110.3 mph max for his career. His bat speed is at least trending in the right direction, though, ticking up every season to sit above 70 mph this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD): 3-4, 2 2B, 2 R, BB, SB.
We’ll probably never see peak Freeman again, but the 2024-26 version is still an excellent player. Freeman and the Dodgers added to a miserable season for Aaron Nola, scoring 5 runs off the struggling Phillies starter en route to 9 in the game. Freeman did his part with two line drive doubles early in the game. He walked in the 8th inning and stole second on a double steal after Andy Pages had singled and stolen second. At this point, there’s no sign of Freeman slowing down. His exit velos are in line with his late-career norms, and he’s actually swinging the bat harder this year than in the past.
Jeremy Peña (HOU): 3-4, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Peña has been on a heater since returning to the Astros lineup following a two-week absence due to a strained calf. Peña is hitting .345/.394/.655 since his return, giving him a season line of .302/.362/.472 that is practically identical to his 2025 effort. Peña’s homer came leading off the third inning after Lucas Spence got picked off third by Joe Mack to end the 2nd inning. Ultimately, the lost two runs didn’t matter, as the Astros beat the Marlins 5-2. Each of Peña’s batted balls left the bat at over 100 mph, with his three hits going at 103.9, 105.1, and 105.7 on the homer.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL): 3-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
I’m strategically omitting CES’s performance in the second game of the doubleheader, where he did not contribute to the Orioles ending the Red Sox’s 15-game winning streak. CES joined the Orioles earlier this season in exchange for cash, indicating just how far the former Reds’ prospect’s stock has fallen. He was excellent in this one, with three of his four batted balls leaving the bat at 99 mph or harder. He’s still got plus bat speed at 73 mph on average and the potential for good power. He’s had manageable strikeout rates in his time in the majors as well, but a 4.1% career walk rate is untenable unless you hit like Luis Arraez.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS): 2-4, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Rafaela also had a poor nightcap after a strong performance in the day game. Rafaela reached on a soft chopper as part of a four-run Red Sox first inning, then dropped a fly ball into the first row of the Monster seats in left-center in the fourth inning. Rafaela’s night lifted his seasonal line to .280/.324/.437, good for a 108 wRC+. That might not sound like much, but when you’re perhaps the second-best defensive outfielder in baseball, it’s plenty at the plate. Seventy percent of Pete Crow-Armstrong is still an excellent player.
Josh Naylor (SEA): 2-4, 2B, 2 R, SB.
Naylor added his 21st steal of the season last night in a 5-3 loss to the Reds. He’s stolen more bases and posted a lower ISO than Bryson Stott despite having a 4th percentile sprint speed. The main message of Naylor’s 51 steals in the past season and a half, plus Juan Soto’s 38 steals in 2025 out of nowhere, is that stealing bases can be a matter of timing and desire, not speed. Naylor has lost nearly 3 mph of bat speed in the past two years, so this may just be who he is now.
Photo by Larry Placido/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
