Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 93 pitches.
I cover a lot of starting pitchers across a full season. Something like 300 or so different pitchers make a start every year and while I can make sense of the heavy majority, some force me to throw my hands up in the air and wish y’all the best of luck. Andrew Abbott has been one of those arms and after a debut that came with highly suspect command, a dramatic velocity dip, and an unreliable changeup, he went into Camden and schooled us all: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 93 pitches (W).
First thing, the velocity is still down. 91.7 mph is close to two ticks away from the 93/94 mph of last year and watching this one, I was shocked to see so many passed on inside the zone. A 59% strike rate with a 26% called strike rate is what you can see with a curve, but not a fastball. Sure, it’s coming with improved vert (+1.3″ to 17.6″ is great!), but these aren’t right at the bottom of the zone where batters think it’ll drop further. I’m not a believer this will last, especially against LHB where the curve and sweeper didn’t tunnel so well to induce takes.
However, I am very excited about the slowball. It made me frustrated in his first outing, but here? 47% CSW with 90/19 whiffs. He got the ball into the down-and-away quadrant and it floundered RHB all night, which does explain the called strikes on the four-seamer to a degree (but so many were still taken and I’m still shocked, y’all), but more importantly, it gave Abbott a foundation that wasn’t the fastball. That’s been my biggest question with Abbott since his debut – what’s his best pitch? I think it could be the changeup with the fastball not coming with great command inside the zone. The hook could be that pitch and was highly effective here, but that changeup was the difference maker.
It’s too bad he heads to Coors next as I can’t endorse that for obvious reasons. However, I’d jump on after for his time against the Cardinals and hope the fastball improves. If he does (and doesn’t have the volatility of old), then we may have a fun post-hype breakout on our hands.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ TEX (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a co-share of the Gallows Pole. Awesome matchup here against deGOAT and it was standard three-pitch from Yamamoto amplified by 12 sliders + cutters sneaking in for 10/12 strikes + a few sinkers to throw off RHB (they weren’t good). Yes, I wish he’d go upstairs with the four-seamer more, but that’s a dumb request after a line this, isn’t it?
Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ TBR (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 102 pitches.
You love to see it. The slider was a bit all over the place and went 57% strikes across 36% usage, while the changeup is still letting him down at just 40% strikes. But the Rays aren’t a challenging offense and Rodón’s ~96 mph heater (woot! 95.8 mph!) steered the ship upstairs and got to the finish line with a 1.00 WHIP. I wonder if we see more sinkers to LHB in the future, though. It has a 10″ drop from the four-seamer and could do wonders to prevent walks down-and-away while setting up the changeup. Just a thought.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.
Anderson, you may be one of the more underrated 12-teamer arms. Stream the guy against weak teams and let the changeup + 19/20″ vert four-seamer coooook. Now’s the time, too – he gets the Pirates up next.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
This was a fair amount of Professor Chaos with a ton of non-competitive pitches, though he got whiffs often and the Athletics didn’t captitalize. He deserved to get a bit Singled Out here.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs LAD (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. THERE WE GO. deGrom sat 97.1 mph, located his slider beautifully to RHB and kept it low to LHB, and his four-seamer…well it had low vert and wasn’t spotted delicately as we normally see it, but it returned all the call strikes and the Dodgers were on their heels the whole game. We saw a few surprise changeups to LHB as well, though there’s still some refinement needed there. In short, he’s deGOAT for a reason. He’s dope.
Bowden Francis (TOR) vs SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.
The Mariners aren’t the greatest offense, preventing this from being a statement outing of validity, but the four-seamer cruised along and kept the house from crumbling as the splitter and curveball were either floated or easy takes. Is that 18″ iVB fastball at 92/93 mph really that good? Okay, the 6.8 extension and high location is solid…Maybe I just need to get on board and call it a day.
Hunter Dobbins (BOS) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 79 pitches.
Dobbins got the call again and took full advantage of the CrySox. Once again, I’m sad to say I don’t adore what he brings to the table – a 95 mph heater with 16″ of vert that he doesn’t command along the edges super well + a trio of mediocre breaking balls – and he was sent down after this one with Brayan Bello’s imminent return. In short, yes, Boston took their Red Sock back from Dobbins and sent him back to the farm.
Logan Webb (SFG) @ LAA (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 105 pitches.
WE BACK BAYBEE. The changeup was absurd to RHB, utilized 30% of the time and returned 11/27 whiffs overall at a 52% CSW. Meanwhile, he spun sweepers backdoor to LHB and over the plate to RHB for 60% strikes + the sinker did it’s thing with 37% CSW. What’s wild is I didn’t even like his feel against LHB in this one (so strange to see over double the number of sweepers vs changeups to LHB), but watching that sinker and changeup duo against RHB was glorious. Please keep that going.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs NYY (L) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 84 pitches.
It was the Yankees. You were scared. Rasmussen flew over you, eyes glued to the ceiling at 3:00am, laying a soft, cozy blanket of 17 whiffs and 38% CSW to ease your mind. I’m dope and I make you feel dope, he whispered, words trailing through the air in golden ribbons of snow. Seriously, he’s incredible.
Chris Paddack (MIN) @ ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
After that first outing against the White Sox, Paddack hasn’t been so bad! This was the best fastball of the year sitting 94/95 (not 93!), though the changeup went 0/14 whiffs and 50% strikes. Thankfull, he was able to spin curveballs into the zone more than usual and it suprised Atlanta, but it’s still not a great pitch and boy, let’s not go into the slider. No, I’m not buying this at all, sadly.
Jackson Jobe (DET) vs KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
It looks like Jobe added extra movement to the cutter last start and made Savant start calling it a slider, while he added another inch of drop here, and it has become the glue of his arsenal. Returning a 70% strike rate with 31% CSW across 33% usage is magnificent, and made up for his fastball being all kinds of lackluster. The four-seamer wasn’t spotted well, the sinker was too hittable, and both went 0/31 whiffs despite sitting mid-to-upper 90s. I believe in the four-seamer becoming more effective when located well, but it’s clearly not the foundational heater we thought it could be. The curve was saved (mostly) to split with sliders against LHB and went 9/9 strikes and 67% CSW, though it can be blasted at times. Lastly, the changeup has great potential and was saw some beautiful ones against LHB, but I’m not confident the offering is a true path toward AGA. In short, the slider is keeping things together as Jobe figures out the rest. I wonder if we’ll see a true low-90s cutter to get introduced for LHB, while a focus on the curve and four-seamer as whiff pitches to RHB may be the ticket toward 25-30% strikeout rates. I’m holding tight as that slider should keep the floor high.
Colin Rea (CHC) vs ARI (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 69 pitches.
We all miss Justin Steele, but hot dang Rea, you’re doing a lovely impression…across 70 or so pitches. I don’t believe he’ll be able to return as many called strikes in the future and get away with so many heaters over the zone, but there is a worthwhile streamer lurking, once he’s allowed to throw more than 85 pitches, of course.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs MIA (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 13 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a Golden Goal. The four-seamer and sinker became major focuses again, though the splitter has COME ALIVE. We’re talking 47% CSW with 7/15 whiffs as a major weapon against LHB. Throw in a few cutters for good measure to help debilitate his weaker side and you have yourself a new and improved Wheeler. Oh, and he tested out sweepers down-and-away to RHB once again and while the strike rate was terrible (29% is hilarious), they were all pretty dang competitive. Let’s all thank the Marlins for giving Wheeler a night to swirl the flasks.
Corbin Burnes (ARI) @ CHC (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 98 pitches.
I’ve been all doom and gloom with Burnes and this start doesn’t repair our tapestry of trust. Awesome band, Tapestry of Trust. Not going to explore that one, and instead note that his slider and changeup are still failing massively, with a 31% strike rate on the slowball and 42% strike rate on the slider (those should be CSW rates not strikes!) and going just 4/43 whiffs across the pair + curves. Meanwhile, the cutter wasn’t down, and lost even more drop, now at 13″ of vert – we want to see sub 10″, closer to 8″. I’m selling, y’all.
Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) @ PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
WELL NOW. The four-seamer had more hiLoc than the previous outing at 60%+ and I want to believe. The problem? The four-seamer held a 47% strike rate. This was a bit more of Blame it on the Pirates and his slider command being absurd against LHB, but the fact that the intent is clearly there for the four-seamer to land upstairs (and BSB, while we’re at it) has made me more interested than ever in Ortiz. It doesn’t mean I’m adding him in a 12-teamer (Yankees are next), but I’m watching closely for a moment to trust the command regularly. In the meantime, we keep streaming when it lines up.
Ryan Gusto (HOU) vs SDP (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 68 pitches.
That’s a Dusty Donut from Gusto, who has a super interesting four-seamer at 18″ of vert and 94+ mph that he keeps upstairs, but I don’t see another offering to help him get through starts. Yes, Joe Ryan’s secondaries are more reliable and helpful than these. I’m still avoiding.
Miles Mikolas (STL) @ NYM (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 70 pitches.
He chucked pitches over the plate and after four frames, his chickens came to roost in the fifth and he got the early hook. I get it, St. Louis. I wouldn’t want Mikolas in for much longer, either.
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ TOR (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
He went BSB with with a ton of high heaters and middle-to-low changeups to LHB, while he didn’t have anything to support the fastballs underneath to RHB. With a better changeup (65% strikes but 20% CSW) and some kind of good breaker to RHB, he’s clearly deserving of the AGA tag. Until then, you should be thrilled with his efficiency and volume (and health!), hoping to get a strikeout per inning.
David Peterson (NYM) vs STL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 99 pitches.
We’re seeing more sweep from Peterson’s slider and I’ll always love his absurd extension that makes his 92 mph heaters effective. Just can you do better than 55% strikes and 18% CSW on the changeup? K thx.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) @ MIL (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 96 pitches.
Whoaaaaa. Ginn is one of the rare RHB executing front-hip sinkers to LHB and it’s too bad he doesn’t have more support from the rest of his arsenal. The slider went just 17% CSW and the cutter returned a paltry 54% strike rate (I still like the idea inside to LHB paired with the sinker, though!). He’s super fun and I expect the slider to better in the future, while I can only hope the changeup takes a step forward or the velocity can sit 95 mph like it did last time out after falling back down to last year’s 93/94 mph here. Keep an eye on this.
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 91 pitches.
The slider and sinker were not at their peak. It’s as simple as that we should have no expectations for Elder to get there soon.
Martín Pérez (CHW) @ BOS (L) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 52 pitches.
Yeaaaaah. Remember after last start how we thought his command was off and take the next exit of this train? His command was horrendous this time around and now has an MRI with forearm soreness. Yikes. I wonder who will take his place – no, Noah Shultz and Hogan Harris are not close enough to stash now. Nick Nastrini perhaps? Don’t stash him, either. Maybe they just go with Bryse Wilson and call it a day.
Kyle Hart (SDP) @ HOU (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 79 pitches.
Blegh. We don’t like Hart for a matchup against the Astros, anyway. At least the changeup stayed down and he was able to steal strikes with back-door sweepers. He’s too hittable without enough whiffs, sadly, and let’s save him to stream against poor lineups.
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs CLE (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 64 pitches.
Mlodzinski is the sole case where you should be predicting Carmen to be a flop. You operaphiles, I got you.
Cole Ragans (KCR) @ DET (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna run out of bullets. You know what’s wild? The walks, lol. No seriously, it is the walks. Huh? Ragans failed to allow a walk in his last two outings but returned three on a day where none of his pitches held a sub 60% strike rate. You should read that as inefficient at-bats merged with a few poor moments. The cutter was completely axed from the arsenal in favor of curves and sliders to RHB, with the latter having success against LHB and the former returning a 36% CSW. The real problem in this one was his erratic changeup. Too many big misses on it that made him pull back its usage to 27% against RHB, while the four-seamer had a large drop in iVB to 16″ and returned just three whiffs. Nick, these are too many words. I know, sorry. Everything is fine, I like that he’s experimenting, and I wish he’d bring the cutter back. It should be a high strike pitch to prevent those walks.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ PHI (L) – 2.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 61 pitches.
Oh no. That’s the second straight disaster start from Alcantara coming with more walks than strikeouts. The velocity is fine at 97 mph and he threw a ton of strikes overall, but they weren’t spotted well + the slider completely abandonded him. This isn’t good, Nick. I know, I KNOW. It was the Phillies, but we saw him with lower velocity and talk about needing more time to recover, followed by a large gap between starts, and now two “clearly out of it” outings. That said, he’s surely going to be dealt before the deadline and it’s possible he gets reinvigorated when the time comes, let alone as soon as his next outing when he hosts the Reds. We just have to weather this out for now.
Cade Povich (BAL) vs CIN (L) – 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.
Yikes. This was a rough one for Povich and I feel for him. As a southpaw only seeing RHB, we generally look for changeups down-and-away with breaking balls in the mix only to back-foot or surprise with called strikes. It also puts more scrutinity on fastballs, which isn’t Povich’s strength. We’ve seen days where he can blow it by batters upstairs, but as a “get me a strike” pitch, even at 18″ of vert (hey, that’s cool!), it was tagged inside the zone. I can see how this can work in the future, though. The curve has great break and should return both whiffs down and called strikes among the rest of the arsenal. The changeup has potential and I imagine a larger mental approach for down-and-out of the zone could help calibrate it to where he wants it to be (it’s so hard). The real question is if the four-seamer can be that foundational pitch. Can he jam it inside to RHB? Get it upstairs? Nail down-and-away? I like to believe Povich is more command than stuff and while there are sure to be more times like this down the road – there are for every pitcher – think of this as development. Every start getting better and hopefully fine-tuning the craft to be that command artist in time. Sadly, I wouldn’t bank on that for fantasy squads in the near future.
Game of the Day
Hunter Greene vs. Brandon Young – No joke, we could see the debut from the ace of the Orioles today. That doesn’t mean you should pick him up, just more of a statement about the status of the Orioles’ rotation. On the other side, it’s a pitcher hurling the ball out of his mind.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
