Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs TOR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 88 pitches.
I’ve been intrigued by Jack Kochanowicz since we got our first look of him in the summer of 2024, where he was a 60% sinkerballer with legit drop and good command, but nothing else. The ole Jack of One Trade. Last year, that sinker failed him and the supporting cast got more lines and extra screentime, but it was a terrible season without glowing reviews. The Angels didn’t have anything else to air this spring, and I’ve been impressed that Kochanowicz changed the script by introducing new characters into the mix. While yesterday’s 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 88 pitches (ND) against the Jays isn’t going to get you amped, it was another outing of making it work and it’s important to take note.
First of all, he’s raised his arm angle significantly, while maintaining sub 5″ drop on his sinker. That means Kochanowicz can have starts like these with 10/11 balls in play off the sinker return grounders. That’s what you want.
Second, his changeup has added fade, which is amplified by the higher arm angle, and he’s trusting it more against both sides of the plate. It’s not the devastating offering we want it to be quite yet, but it’s solid. The slider comes in at a slower 85/86 mph velocity, but at 3-4″ extra two-plane movement, and should be a SwStr offering when he doesn’t have games like yesterday where he can’t get the dang thing down-and-away to RHB. Then there’s his four-seamer, which he aims to keep upstairs as a surprise offering at 95/96 mph, and that’s kinda cool.
I don’t think he’s a stud or on the verge of being one. I do think Kochanowicz can prove to be a Toby this season, if not carry a tinge of upside to be a little more in the strikeout department if the secondaries come through. The Angels’ defense is a bit of a worry (high grounders = infielders better be dope), but play the matchups well, like the CrySox up next, and this can prove beneficial.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Randy Vásquez (SDP) @ COL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 84 pitches.
Ohhhhh baby. The Vásquez breakout is still upon us and I think we’re at the point where I stop trying to play the matchups and just let this ride. We saw improved cutter and slider command here, even with the wonky thin air of Colorado, and we’re holding tight, y’all. A 26% strikeout rate with a 1.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7% walk rate, and a sustainable 7 H/9?! This is so good. He even had a low 20% hard-hit rate.
Luis Gil (NYY) @ BOS (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
You told me he’s too chaotic to trust. He is! That’s more walks than strikeouts and 4/83 whiffs on the game. It was 46 degrees outside. Fair. His four-seamer was all the way down to 93/94 mph as a result, though he unleashed a sweeper here instead of his standard slider (four ticks down, gaining both 7″ of sweep and 3″ of drop), and it’s…not exciting? Maybe if the velocity rises with the temperature, I can get behind this movement at 85+ mph. Personally, I’m not going to go after it against the Astros on Sunday, and who knows how many more outings he has left with Gerrit Cole needing just two or three more rehab starts.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs PHI (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 87 pitches.
Aces gon–IM AN AGA. I was getting to that, but just one strikeout Shota? HAISTBMBWT?! He failed to earn a strikeout on all thirteen pitches thrown in two-strike counts against RHB and that’s a little disappointing, though he only reached two strikes a handful of times. These Phils went up swinging at the heater and got themselves out, save for that one Schwarber blast. Can’t strike em out if they don’t want to be struck out. Yes, you can. You know what I mean.
Chase Dollander (COL) vs SDP (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.
Ummmm. Pick him up? At the very least, he’ll be away from Coors and against the languishing Mets offense, and if he keeps getting an opener, it’ll open the door for more Wins. Why is he so good now? He’s added a tick of velocity, improved his four-seamer command, and changed his slider to become closer to a gyro with extra sweep at the cost of some velocity (still at 87 mph). In short, it’s the BSB with a flat high heater at 99 mph, and that will play, in and out of Coors. The risk is obvious in Colorado + his short track record of command, but a Gallows Pole and dominance at home against the Padres is awfully convincing. FIRE. IT. UP.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
Oh snap, it actually worked out. For once. He’s become…wait. Oh wow. I can’t believe I have the perfect comp for Rocker. Germán Márquez. He’s throwing an 83 mph gyro slider with a little extra drop + a sinker without exceptional movement at 94 mph, and not much else. Sure, there’s the cutter I once adored in there, but he’s down 1-2 ticks on everything and it’s just…so not it. But sure, take the Gold Star and have a ball. I’m not going after Rocker.
Dustin May (STL) @ MIA (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 97 pitches.
You know, after the first two starts, May has settled down with just 3 ER in his last three games. He’s still struggling at putting away batters (14% overall PAR rate in his last two games is rough), but the velocity is sitting 97 with his four-seamer gaining almost two inches of vert here, cutters landing inside to LHB, sinkers with real sink at 5″ drop and 19-20″ ride…whoa. This was in a dome, too. This was a legit fastball/cutter combo and the only thing missing was the pair of breakers + changeup as they combined for 1/31 whiffs. So close. The Pirates have oddly been a strong offense thus far (PL Bot sees them as a 2nd-tier offense, even with the Padres!), making his @PIT, LAD, @SDP schedule less than ideal, but I’m kinda willing to give it a shot in PNC park. As you all know, April Showers, then May Flowers.
Patrick Corbin (TOR) @ LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 65 pitches.
Is this the last start for Corbin? I’m not sure. Trey Yesavage may be taking Corbin’s next start, but what about Lauer? Corbin has allowed only 1 ER in each of his last two starts and given Lauer’s experience in the pen, I get the sense Corbin will keep his rotation spot, though there could be displacement in the future with Bieber and Berríos also on the IL (however delayed they are). At the very least, I’m not suggesting you lean into Corbin after his recent success for a potential start hosting the Sawx, but then again, he located beautifully. Sinkers on the edges, sliders under the zone, surprise cutters, it was a fun watch. And the changeup? Okay fine, that was frustrating. You get the idea. He could still be a Toby in time.
Landen Roupp (SFG) vs LAD (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 106 pitches.
If you told me Roupp would have five walks and a 54% strike rate on his sinker, I’d never have guessed 1 ER in five frames against the Dodgers. Despite the inefficiency (50% changeup strikes and 36% cutter strikes, too. Yeeeesh), this wasn’t terrible command. Say what. He didn’t make mistakes over the plate, and instead intended to live around the edges against a slew of LHB, executing the BSB brilliantly with high (yes, HIGH) sinkers and low curveballs + changeups. That high sinker is a weird animal, but for those who have played The Show, you know those called strikes on high sinkers are tough to deal with. It helped Roupp return a 30% called strike rate and three strikeouts with the pitch + while the curveball and cutter returned seven whiffs between them. Now is the time, y’all. Go get Roupp with MIA, @TBR, and PIT up next. He’s feeling it.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ CHC (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
It’s nice when pitches don’t leave the yard, but why can’t that happen when Luzardo also has efficiency? Whatever, it’s the Giants, Marlins, and Rockie Road next. You can exhale.
Kyle Harrison (MIL) @ DET (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 72 pitches.
Oh. Just three frames, eh? Nick, did you watch this? Yeah, I know. His secondary command was horrific, bouncing curveballs and changeups incessantly. There were some terrible four-seamer misses upstairs, too, and I get it. I should have treated this more like a Still ILL given the time he spent away from the mound. With this out of the way, you should expect 80-85 pitches against the Pirates and Nationals next. That’ll be fine, especially with the four-seamer still upstairs at a super flat 1.8 HAVAA and 94/95 mph velocity.
Sean Burke (CHW) @ ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 101 pitches.
Oh hey, that’s cool. The curveball was as good as you’ll ever see from Burke, acting like the hero leaping over the struggling frontline and creating a quake as her sword crashes through the enemy and into the earth. Those fastballs really needed some help at 93/94 mph (not 96 mph) and the slider is pretty dang blegh. Too bad I can’t rely on it.
Chase Burns (CIN) @ TBR (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.
I mean, I want to give Burns AGA, but he’s averaging 5.2 IP per game right now with a 10% walk rate and this was the Rays. Then again, he’ll likely force the issue with Rockie Road and PNC Park up next. I’m cool with that, especially if he wins another Golden Goal and doesn’t have a Careful, Icarus with a two-run shot to lead off the sixth. Stupid Caminero and his ability to hit 0-1 sliders over the plate.
Jacob Lopez (ATH) @ SEA (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.
It worked! With…one strikeout and still a poor K/BB. HAISTBMBWT?! Yep, that’s a Dusty Donut and I’m still out.
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs ATH (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
It’s fine. Decent ERA, some strikeouts, no Win, no QS, 1.40 WHIP. At home. It is a very welcome sight to watch Castillo record 8/31 whiffs on his slider, though, and he earned them across the entire lineup. Maybe there’s hope in the pitch still. Please do it in Minnesota and bring me back into the light. But he had his best slider and it was a meh start. That’s…a really good point.
Ryan Weiss (HOU) @ CLE (ND) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.
Weiss. I’m so sad this hasn’t worked out. I mean, you can’t expect this to work with a 15% walk rate. It just makes everything worse.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ SFG (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna have a super rough three-run opening frame, then make it up to y’all with six shutout innings after. Not every game will be absurdly good, but it’s salvaging starts like this that makes The Inquisitor an ace.
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs MIN (ND) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna try so hard to put the team on his back, with five perfect innings until the sixth returned a two-run blast, and he blew the 3-2 lead in the seventh, leading to the Mets’ twelfth straight loss. That’s baseball, Suzyn. He’s obviously dope and makes us feel dope, but don’t expect a 37% putaway rate moving forward. That wouldn’t be smart.
Kris Bubic (KCR) vs BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
He battled after allowing a three-run shot early in the second inning, grinding through the sixth and 100 pitches to give you that PQS. His fastball was back at 92 mph, but not spotted like it usually is, with too many flying way too high, while the changeup’s wings were also on full display, landing in the upper half far more than we expect. That led to a horrific 8% putaway rate, explaining the increased walks and few strikeouts. And yet, it’s still a big improvement from last start and I’m expecting those high-ball issues to get ironed out, returning the lovely SWATCH we know and love.
Foster Griffin (WSN) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
Another Toby start from Griffin here with a dub and PQS. He’s not a terrible stream on Sunday against the CrySox and lugs his massive kitchen sink to Chicago. You’d think they’d make enough to just get it delivered.
Keider Montero (DET) vs MIL (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.
Montero served you a Philly before the dam broke in Detroit (lost 12-4 to the Brewers), and I see this on the upper half of Montero’s outings. He’s a 15-team Toby at best.
Connelly Early (BOS) vs NYY (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
I went for it and he was so close, but Stanton dropped the Mike, launching a solo shot in the second and nearly having a second blast with a double off the monster in the sixth, scoring two. But the walks! Early walked none in his first five innings, you know. He didn’t quite run out of gas (was sitting 93/94 mph in the sixth save for two oddly slow sinkers), but he’s not flexing a major whiff pitch to get him out of these situations. THAT SAID, he’s had horrible luck with the weather, once again enduring the bite of Boston during a cold 46-degree day and while that sounds like I’m just making excuses, I think you’ve seen how much it affects a ton of pitchers. He’s not a 12% walk rate arm, nor should he carry a sub 10% SwStr rate.
Parker Messick (CLE) vs HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 85 pitches.
Blegh. Don’t say it–THE LIST CURSE IS REAL. Glad that’s out of your system. He was dope through four innings, sitting 94-96 on his four-seamer (a tick up!) and then he got Singled Out in the third, though he has himself to blame for the final two with a HBP and walk to load the bases before a two-run single. Why do I outline these events so much? Because it illustrates how much our opinion of these performances sways based on one or two plays. Messick is Messick. Be thrilled you have him and he’s not going to go 56% strikes with 0/25 whiffs on his four-seamer in the future.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) @ NYM (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 95 pitches.
Even against the lowly Mets, SWR gives you nothing. And his command to RHB was kinda great with a well-executed BSB, too. He’s just not it.
Shane Baz (BAL) @ KCR (ND) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.
Dangit Baz, you had a PQS before allowing two baserunners on in the seventh, a wild pitch, then a sac fly, scoring the fourth run. I lowered him on The List as his four-seamer has not overwhelmed nearly as much as we’ve seen in the past and his cutter/change development is not coming along fast enough. At least the curveball is ole reliable, though. That’s a start. Houston + Yankees are up next, so if he’s been dropped, don’t feel as if you need to grab him now. Wait for it to click first.
Steven Matz (TBR) vs CIN (L) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 77 pitches.
Bleeeegh. Maybe the most disappointing outing as Matz looked set for a fantastic stream, gliding down the Reds Carpet. They got to his high sinker in this one, likely due to the changeup’s 48% strike rate that didn’t protect it enough. He’s still a decent option with @CLE and SFG up next, but it’s clear he’s not as much of a lock as he seemed prior to this one.
Reynaldo López (ATL) @ WSN (L) – 1.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 58 pitches.
Atlanta allowed ReyLó to throw 46 pitches in the first inning. FORTY. SIX. I’m amazed he even came out for the second, though I have to give him props for holding his 93/94 mph velocity through the first and second, even climbing as the first continued on. We usually see a cascading cliff as pitchers get exhausted. He also found the movement he lost last start and more, which obviously didn’t help here, but that was a product of LHB feasting on López’s lack of an effective secondary to deal with them + terrible four-seamer command. Regardless, PHI, @COL, LAD are next. If this was a Vargas Rule, you can abide and move on.
Chris Paddack (MIA) vs STL (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
His Vulcan change returned six punchouts, but if you can’t avoid consistent damage against the Cards, then why would I hold you for the Dodgers + Phillies?
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) @ TEX (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
Womp womp. The splitter did everything it could, though the sweeper failed him, the curve was thrown just ten times, and the heaters are…not good. It came apart in the second and fifth frames, and it’s the floor you knew was there from Mlodzinski – the floor we hoped would disappear in Arlington. He could bounce back in Milwaukee and walk down the Reds Carpet, though I question if it’s worth it, especially with an opener.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs CHW (L) – 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 101 pitches.
Oh jeeeeez. That first inning was tough to watch as he was Singled Out and four runs came across the plate, but then it got worse with back-to-back-to-back solo jacks in the second. Daaaang. We’ve seen two starts from Kelly now and I know it looks terrible – poor strike rates across the board here and, uh, those ratios – and I don’t blame anyone for dropping him. I kinda believe he’s worthwhile to hold for a start in Milwaukee, just to see if he can shake off the rust. It’s just two games so far and his velocity and stuff look normal, save for a little less curveball movement. The overall feel should return.
Game of the Day
Connor Prielipp vs. New York Mets – I mean, it’s kinda fun watching the Mets right now as we all cheer for our little brother to get back on the horse (really sorry, y’all). Then there’s the MLB debut of Prielipp, who I adore. He’s a 95/96 mph southpaw with a legit changeup (SWATCH!), solid set of breakers with an 82/83 mph HUGE two-plane curve + 88/89 gyro slider, and he’s displayed good command of the four-seamer. There’s even a sinker working into the mix to LHB, though he hasn’t nailed that in the minors quite yet. Spec-add him everywhere. But what about Didier Fuentes?! I’m excited for that too! I consider Prielipp the better add given the wider mix, but hopefully Didier’s four-seamer is elite and destroys.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
