Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Peter Lambert (HOU) @ CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 96 pitches.
I was shocked to watch Peter Lambert return a Golden Goal in his first start with the Astros, two years removed from a horrendous season in Colorado before undergoing TJS. With a date against the LHB-heavy Guardians following his stellar BSB with four-seamers and changeups, it looked like a sneaky stream with a high ceiling. It wasn’t quite as impressive as his first outing, but hot dang, was it productive: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 96 pitches (W). Now the question isn’t if he can be solid. The question is where he stands among the prospects getting called up this week.
I’m holding Lambert. He exclusively faced LHB and located his arsenal close to his intent on his four major offerings – changeup, four-seamer, cutter, slider – and I was impressed by the cutter’s bump in both usage and near 2 ticks of velocity to return 4/20 whiffs and mask his four-seamer to help it return a 44% CSW. The changeup was bounced far more than ideal, leading to a terrible 10% putaway rate, but the cutter stepped up and took over. I love this.
I’m not clear on what we’ll see when he faces more RHB with a 86 mph gyro slider (slightly below average) and a four-seamer that may get hit a bit more when he doesn’t have four pitches to turn to. That said, it’s @BAL next and it’s a good litmus test for the future. If he continues pitching well, I expect him to stick in this rotation even when injured reinforcements arrive, making this a potential grab-and-hold. Wild, isn’t it?
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Max Fried (NYY) @ BOS (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. It is so good to see Fried thrive with a co-share of the Gallows Pole in 45-degree Fenway Park, no less. The changeup was FILTHY, the cutter was cutting, the curveball was reliable, it was just beautiful. It’s good to see you, Max.
Tyler Mahle (SFG) vs LAD (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 91 pitches.
Oh baby, IT’S TIME. Not only did he take down the Dodgers (here’s a Gold Star), he did so while sitting 93.2 mph, hitting 95 mph on multiple pitches. Now he gets…THE PHILLIES?! Wait wait wait, what happened? Where are my Marlins?! Ugggh, I’m still picking him up as it’s @TBR, then PIT after. He’s at the velocity we want, I’m not so scared of the Phillies and I think a start like this is going to warrant pickups before the Rays.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) @ SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a Golden Goal. That’s a 0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 27% strikeout rate across four starts, throwing exactly six frames in each of his four starts. I sure hope y’all got earlier than his ~20th SP off the board ADP in two-Ohtani leagues.
Janson Junk (MIA) vs STL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 56 pitches.
Uhhh, pulled at 56 pitches?! It was a 4-0 lead entering the sixth. Manager Clayton McCullough said pulling Junk gave them the “best chance at a Win,” and I cannot disagree more. But whatever, it’s a dub and we finally saw some whiffs on Junk’s heater, all four on pitches in the upper third of the zone. I’m a little worried that the vert fell under 18″ on average with few actually upstairs + his changeup was executed well just once to LHB + sliders and sweepers still lack the polish we want to see, but we’ll take it. You just listed problems with his entire arsenal. Did I? I didn’t notice. Yes you did. He gets the Dodgers and Phillies next. Okay fine Nick, I’ll move on.
José Soriano (LAA) vs TOR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 84 pitches.
The madman! I love it. The fact that he had the higher WHIP and H/9, but didn’t walk anyone (65%+ strike rate on both fastballs and the curve) is everything. The splitter was 50% strikes, but I don’t care – it was used as a whiff pitch and did its job (4/14 whiffs) and even induced a pair of weak groundouts. With every start like this, I buy in a little more, but, well, a 100% LOB rate still exists. He’s not always going to be so efficient at allowing just one baserunner on at a time (double play + caught stealing erased a pair of them), but no walks? Hot dang, Soriano. Please keep doing that.
Nick Martinez (TBR) vs CIN (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 95 pitches.
Oh, just because my boy Lambert did well, Martinez needed to make me feel bad for not choosing him as today’s streamer. Alright, I kid, I’m super happy he was able to stroll down the Reds Carpet, where he succeeded by throwing 48% sinkers at a whopping 87% strike rate. Sure, he allowed all five hits on the day with the pitch, but just one was hit off a true mistake that was laced for a double. He went front hip effectively to LHB paired with solid cutters and I dug it. Enough to start him in Cleveland? Kinda, yeah. He’ll get all the LHB and his sinker + cutter + change approach should do well enough.
Casey Mize (DET) vs MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.
Ayyyy that’s a lovely outing from Mize, who was incredibly efficient in two-strike counts, more than doubling the expected 20% clip with a 44% mark in this one. Yes, that’s to help answer the question “Are those strikeouts real?” And the answer is…No. That’s highly unsustainable. He also didn’t have his best splitter feel and the slider went down-and-away just once to RHB. I’m still very wary of Mize and his middling repertoire supported by a 93 mph four-seamer, though I am happy to see him feature 27 sliders at a 70% strike rate. That’s a step forward. Not enough to start him against Atlanta, though.
Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) vs SDP (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 101 pitches.
You know, I think it’s pretty rad that Sugano has a 3.42 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP so far. No, it’s not sustainable, but maybe for a rare stream here and there, you know?
Clay Holmes (NYM) vs MIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 88 pitches.
He left the game in a tied 2-2 ballgame, but who knew the foundation the Mets really needed was one made of Clay? And sinkers. Lots of sinkers…Yeaaaah, this was wild to see. The Adobe went 73% sinkers here at 15/18 outs in play while the change and sweeper returned just 50% strikes in the 22 thrown. And I get it – he gets so much sink (sub 2″ vert) with his high arm angle, and that’s awfully hard to hit when it’s low. Which it’s not. Well, it’s roughly a third of the time (if not less) as the pitch stays middle or upstairs uncomfortably often. Enough of that, you should consider him a Toby with a low strikeout rate with his sinker obsession, which is fine, hosting the Nationals next week. But they’re LHB! That’s fine if he’s getting enough sink on these. Sinkers are worse vs. LHB when it’s more reliant on horizontal ride than sink.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ TEX (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 94 pitches.
This is one beautiful start to the season for Ashcraft, and I’m not sure what to make of it. On one hand, he upped his slider velocity to nearly 93 mph at 31% usage, while the curve is 85/86 mph, the sinker has an inch of extra lateral ride, and is throwing it and the four-seamer for 75%+ strikes. On the other hand, the slider went just 48% strikes (great general area to RHB, though!), his four-seamer had 1/24 whiffs (42% called strikes though), and his fastballs are more hittable than I want them to be. It feels like a sell high if someone were interested, and yet, he’ll get the Cardinals, Reds Carpet, and @SFG in his next three outings. That’s gorgeous. I’ll continue to have some skepticism on the longevity of his success, but it lessens each time out. Let it ride, let it ride.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs HOU (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.
Phew. His four-seamer returned a 7% CSW and 88% hard contact on 27 thrown (wat), but the cutter and changeup did what they were supposed to do + the curveball appeared for a ton of called strikes. The schedule is great, but this is a coin flip each start.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs PHI (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
It was Boyd and I don’t blame the Cubs for pulling him at 84 pitches following his IL stint. Blame the 30 pitches he threw in the second inning and be happy he’s going proper BSB with four-seamers up and sliders + changeups down. It’s what we wanted to see.
Connor Prielipp (MIN) @ NYM (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 82 pitches.
I’ve been loud in my hype for Prielipp and yet, it was still wise to follow the PILOT rule given we got just four frames from the rookie’s MLB debut. His changeup’s 46% strike rate was nowhere near what it should be moving forward, while the four-seamer and slider were stellar. He had zero hesitation throwing the gyro slide piece backfoot to RHB at 88 mph (71% strikes!), while the four-seamer was elevated at will for an astonishing 48% foul ball rate (67% strikes). I treat foul balls as anomalies that take away from the common result of a whiff or a ball in play, and considering we saw four-seamers return two balls in play and one whiff, I have no idea what it means right now. I’m going to assume it’s a bit of both right now, and that’s absolutely fine with me. The real sign is the 46% O-Swing on those heaters, and if the changeup were actually doing what it was supposed to do (2/13 whiffs, many easy takes), then we likely get more whiffs on the heater. I love this southpaw. You should add him now if you still can. The command was fantastic, his three main offerings are whiff pitches, and even with poor extension, his 95/96 mph velocity makes up for it.
Aaron Civale (ATH) @ SEA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.
You got five strikeouts and poor ratios. Don’t do this to yourself.
Jack Leiter (TEX) vs PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 84 pitches.
Sigh. That was a rough fifth frame with a trio of singles and a walk that colluded for three runs (one unearned), though Leiter is still fighting himself more than the batter. Two of those hits of the fifth came on poor sliders to LHB, for example, and he earned just 2/7 CSW on sliders to RHB. That’s just…meh. He’s a HIPSTER.
Eric Lauer (TOR) @ LAA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 79 pitches.
We saw 2/38 whiffs on his four-seamer as many still hold onto the 17 whiffs he earned in his first outing. It’s not gonna happen. Also, his heater fell to 89 mph (not 91+). Is he still sick? I don’t think so, but he likely will be once he learns Yesavage takes his spot over Corbin’s. That’s not confirmed. True, but I’d be surprised if it went the other way.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs ATH (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna struggle to find his four-seamer and it messed him up badly. 46% strikes on the foundational offering forced splitters, curves, and sliders to get more of the zone in poor counts and it cost him. Whatareyagoonado. At least the velocity and stuff are the same.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs CHW (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 96 pitches.
Blegh. At least you got a Win, but against the CrySox, you really hope for better. Sure, it was a terrible first frame with two singles and walking in a run on back-to-back walks + two solo shots in other frames, but does that really matter? Erod, you can’t be trusted. Use him as a desperate QS/Win streamer (96 pitches = high six-inning chance).
Kyle Leahy (STL) @ MIA (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 89 pitches.
Dangit. I was holding out hope that this would be the start Leahy displayed his upside and despite throwing his 89/90 mph slider in a great location consistently to RHB, it returned 2/18 whiffs. Sigh. The four-seamer and sinker are not doing great work either, and it’s just not there. I’ll let you know if there’s anything to report.
Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs NYY (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 71 pitches.
It’s the Yankees and we haven’t seen prime Suarez yet. Not too surprising and I’m glad his velocity was up a tick despite the 45-degree weather. This was a bamboozling of a three-run shot in the first and not a whole lot else, which should be encouraging for Ranger managers moving forward. His command was generally good, save for some poor changeups over the plate, and I think the worst is behind us.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) @ CHC (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 64 pitches.
Is this the end for Walker? Wheeler is returning and I don’t think the Phillies want to hold back Painter in order to keep Taijuan’s inability to butter their bread. Is it really time?! UPDATE: It is indeed time.
Chad Patrick (MIL) @ DET (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 80 pitches.
Oh, so we’re back to four frames, eh? He had a 52% strike rate on four-seamers. There’s yer problem. The cutter is still really good and I like the curveball, but it’s just too…meh.
Didier Fuentes (ATL) @ WSN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 74 pitches.
HE’S HERE! And we followed the PILOT rule, right? It wasn’t a debut though. It felt like one. Didier also faced a heavily LHB-focused squad, which doesn’t match up well to his four-seamer and slider combo (with splitters, but that’s not super reliable), and I was impressed 6/23 slider whiffs against LHB + the fear I’ve had about his four-seamer not getting whiffs was quelled with 6/26 of its own. What was strange was going 15/16 four-seamers to RHB, even if they were productive(ish) – two hits on middle-middle fastballs to Young, two strikeouts on middle-middle fastballs to House – and my overall impression is pretty much the same as it was before: Great four-seamer he likes to keep in the upper half, good slider that gives me command concerns. I also wonder if he’s throwing a splinker and not a splitter with its 90 mph velocity and consistent break to LHB (I’m down with that). At any rate, Didier was OPTIONED after this start with JR Ritchie starting on Thursday, making us, once again, try to figure out what we should do. With so many interesting prospects up right now, surely you have to let go of Fuentes for now. The strikeout upside is fun, but the overall package suggests volatility. As for Ritchie, I don’t think his ceiling is high enough.
Walker Buehler (SDP) @ COL (L) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 82 pitches.
It was Coors. You knew this would happen. Let’s not.
Chris Bassitt (BAL) @ KCR (W) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 88 pitches.
You gave up on this, right? Good.
Brandon Williamson (CIN) @ TBR (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 87 pitches.
This may be the last outing for Williamson with the return of Lodolo around the corner. It’s too bad – I think he has a great cutter and changeup, but he just can’t make it all work. Maybe in time.
Zack Littell (WSN) vs ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 96 pitches.
Ah yes, the ole allow a run in each of your first four frames (two unearned) and still throw six without a strikeout. HAISTBMBWT?! He’s not getting outs with a heavy slider/splitter approach and without that, he’s nothing like his former self.
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs BAL (L) – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 89 pitches.
Womp womp. This Vargas Rule came to a screeching halt in the sixth inning, where our fella earned a quick out, then walked Alonso, and was Singled Out on three good pitches along the edges, with all four runners eventually scoring. Wait, so maybe he’s still good. I kinda think so, yeah. He heads to Sacré Verde next and I really wish he had an easier start, but it may be worthwhile with the Guardians and Tigers after. I think I hold for now, but not tightly.
Anthony Kay (CHW) @ ARI (L) – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.
The dream is dead. For now. And likely a long time. 31% strikes on his slider, 53% on his changeup, 100% the will to win, 110% the will of his body to deny him to throw enough strikes. Can’t believe I remember the lyrics after all these years.
Game of the Day
Cam Schlittler vs. Payton Tolle – I meaaaaaaaan.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
