Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Lucas Giolito (BOS) @ TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches.
It took roughly 18 months, but we finally saw Lucas Giolito throw an MLB pitch for the Red Sox and I loved it. Don’t be alarmed by the PQS final line of 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches (ND) against the Jays – this was a Careful, Icarus as Giolito was one strike away from six shutout frames until his 0-2 changeup went over the fence for a two-run shot, followed by another homer on a 1-0 changeup. And what I saw before these runs was a lot of what made me interested in Giolito during the spring of 2024.
The four-seamer looks back on track for the first time since 2021. Its 93.3 mph velocity (ramped up across the outing!) with seven feet of extension and 18″ of vert came with a 41% CSW on the night and set a great foundation for his signature changeup. The slowball was vicious, save for those two longballs, and it made many batters look silly fouling them off or swinging with clear disdain. A four-seamer and changeup intertwined across the zone for a high strike rate? That’s classic Giolito.
There is a problem. I really didn’t like Giolito’s slider. He didn’t command it well and it looked awfully pedestrian, with less break than the tighter 2021 version and far less break than the slower iteration in 2022 and 2024. We want the tighter breaker at 85/86 mph and this certainly wasn’t that.
In the end, this is the Giolito I was expecting to see and I’m glad it’s here. The four-seamer/changeup combo is classic Giolito and that alone should carry him as a low-end Holly, even if he calls Fenway his home. I am a bit worried about the slider’s mediocrity though (and the curve, but that’s been the clear #4 pitch for rare occasions for ages), and it does make for a bit more volatility, especially if the four-seamer was fueled by adrenaline and settles in around 92/93 mph. I see him as a hold in 12-teamers, as I looked forward to watching the Red Sox figure out how to get a #3 pitch back into Giolito’s arsenal.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) vs MIN (ND) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
The changeup returned but was touched least of all five pitches and held a 46% strike rate. Sigh. At least the four-seamer is still in the upper half of the zone and went…2/25 whiffs. Sigh. And the slider was thrown plenty for, uh, 16% CSW. Sigh. CAN YOU STOP THAT? The cutter and sinker carried this one with 75%+ strike rates and high CSW marks, but I heavily dislike the volatility not just game-by-game, but pitch-by-pitch inside the arsenal. You really don’t know what he’ll have on a given night and I hate living that life.
Noah Cameron (KCR) @ TBR (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 79 pitches.
It was a day of debuts and despite five walks, Cameron had arguably the best line of them all. Performance? I’m not sure. I’m sad to see the 94/95 mph velocity has fallen to a very hittable 92 mph four-seamer with horrible vert, HAVAA, and six feet of extension – one of the worst metrics I’ve seen on a primary heater – and the changeup that had me excited collected just 46% strikes. However, the 83 mph slider and 87 mph cutter were able to save the day. His breaker returned a 42% CSW despite questionable precision, while the cutter earned outs galore inside to RHB. The full package displays upside if he can get his velocity back on track and display better command inside the zone, but I’m not seeing the pitcher I was hoping for. If he were to get regular starts, he’s a questionable add in 12-teamers. But he isn’t getting regular starts. This was to let Ragans rest for the weekend. Then you don’t have to think twice, y’all.
Miles Mikolas (STL) @ CIN (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 77 pitches.
This is the true Vargas Rule, isn’t it? The strange and wild success of Mikolas carries on. But he had a 5.70 ERA entering this start. With 2 ER total in his last three games. Okay, fine.
Steven Matz (STL) @ CIN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 73 pitches.
Matz isn’t fully stretched out but hot dang did he perform. The changeup was dotted down-and-away to RHB for an absurd 93% strike rate (14/15 strikes!) and the sinker…I don’t quite get how he got away with so much to LHB, but he located it effectively to RHB while flipping a fair number of curves at a 60% CSW. Yes, CSW. I know Eno is in on Matz working out in the lovely St. Louis park and it’s incredibly wise to listen to Eno, but I’m skeptical about the sinker’s success and whether the change + curve are good enough. Matz has literally never had a season under a 1.20 WHIP and I can’t believe he’s suddenly a sub 9.0 hit-per-nine pitcher. He wasn’t in this game. WELL THERE YOU GO.
Huascar Brazobán (NYM) vs ARI (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 26 pitches.
He opened for Brandon Waddell who returned 4.1 IP of shutout ball and four strikeouts. I wish I could tell you all the reasons why this will work in the future, but sadly, that’s unlikely. He sat 91 mph with a super wild heater, but at least the southpaw got inside enough for outs with his slider and was able to go back-foot with the slider and sweeper to RHB. I still heavily question this and think it can’t possibly work for a proper start (just 60 pitches here).
Corbin Burnes (ARI) @ NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 94 pitches.
Hey y’all. Does this look like a start where Burnes has figured it out again? With a 52% strike rate cutter and a 42% strike rate sinker? Is that bad? YES, BRAD. It’s bad. No, it’s Brad. Burnes just held a 14″ vert cutter (the worst it has been, we want that under 9″ for proper drop), I am in duress, BRAD. Be happy this worked out for a Win and one earned run. He had 3/26 whiffs on his curve + slider + change. Blegh.
Brady Singer (CIN) vs STL (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
He couldn’t get whiffs on the slider to RHB per usual and that was the difference maker here, preventing more strikeouts and allowing a few more walks. So it goes, this is classic Singer we’re dealing with here.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs ATH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 92 pitches.
The four-pitch mix is firing on all cylinders, especially the splitter and curve, tallying 15/50 whiffs between them here. Keep on keepin’ on.
Michael King (SDP) vs SFG (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna serve us a Philly. He is getting nearly 23″ of horizontal run on his sinker these days; the pitch is literally falling off the chart. I’m surprised he leaned so heavily on the four-seamer to RHB here (36% usage) as I’d argue he has at least two, if not three or four, better pitches to serve them. Maybe because all his secondaries held a 50% strike rate or lower? Yeah, that’s probably it. Welp, even on a day like this, he still dominates. KING.
Chase Dollander (COL) vs ATL (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Oh snap, there’s something decent from Dollander! This was the first day of his curveball becoming proper support for his empty-velocity four-seamer with a 70% strike rate across 31% usage. The changeup and cutter were miserable, unfortunately, and I still can’t back his four-seamer despite sitting 97+ mph. Oh, and Coors generally doesn’t go this well. I can’t do it, y’all. I CAN’T.
Shane Smith (CHW) vs MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 80 pitches.
We don’t love it, but at least he’s keeping the ERA down as he continues his journey to find a way to hold onto 95+ mph velocity past 60 pitches. One day.
Luis Severino (ATH) @ TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.
I love seeing the cutter get more action from Severino, but it’s not refined yet with just 18% CSW and a poor 55% strike rate on the night. He’s still just a Toby until he can wield that pitch properly and find strikeouts once again.
Chris Sale (ATL) @ COL (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 24 Whiffs, 44% CSW, 100 pitches.
OH SNAP. Sale heard my rhetoric of why he was no longer a Top 20 SP during The Craft today and went berserk. His slider was thrown 56% of the time for a 52% CSW and 18/56 whiffs. Yeah, no wonder he earned a Golden Goal. It’s pretty fantastic seeing Sale have his slider back. Seriously, that was the biggest issue I had with Sale, and if that pitch is cruising once again, then we have absolutely nothing to be worried about. Not his health? Okay, fine. Just one thing to worry about, then. Give me another two starts with this slider and you’re an ace again.
Pablo López (MIN) @ CLE (L) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
Oh you. As expected, PabLó turned to the changeup aplenty against the near-exclusive LHB lineup and paired it with a whole lotta four-seamers. The result? Koufax helping a fair amount, but I generally liked the precision of the changeup and not so much of the four-seamer. Meh, who cares, we love this line and we look forward to the next day.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 96 pitches.
Anderson, thank you. You’re such a reliable arm who takes full advantage of their stellar matchups. Don’t you dare change. No, I wouldn’t hold for the Jays up next. Even with his changeup going 11/44 whiffs here.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) @ PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.
Blegh. That WHIP hurts and I was really hoping Boyd would thrive in his first start against a team below .500. Sadly, the slider was incredibly inconsistent while the changeup was erratic. There were great offerings in there, just not the consistency we expect from a veteran like Boyd.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs WSN (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches.
Soooo, that whole forearm injury thing. You’re okay? I mean, you sat 95.7 mph and tossed 87 pitches. So I guess you’re fine? Can I exhale yet? Well, it was just a 50% strike rate on his signature changeup. That’s okay, he’ll fix that. I think we’re fine.
AJ Blubaugh (HOU) vs DET (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 84 pitches.
Here’s another debut for you. Blubaugh’s four-seamer was the breadwinner at 8/35 whiffs as he tried to keep it upstairs at 94 mph with 17″+ vert and decent extension, with a solid sweeper to RHB + changeups and curves to LHB. Sadly, the changeup needs a bit of work, the curve is a wreck (1/11 CSW, 36% strikes), and the bridge cutter was sparingly used and nothing to write home about. This was also a spot start, which means we shouldn’t see another outing from Blubaugh, but if he were, I wouldn’t be going after him until I saw him command far more of his arsenal.
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 65 pitches.
The Clown Car (I don’t want this Car full of Men nickname to stick) gave you a line that you’ve already forgotten about. You forgot who you’re even reading about. Who is this? What is this article? Where am I? That Mlodzinski is such a trickster.
Tobias Myers (MIL) @ CHW (ND) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 49 pitches.
He had horrific control, and the Brewers saw enough to give him the early hook. Yeeeeesh. Let’s stay away from Myers until we get a promising outing, alright?
Yariel Rodríguez (TOR) vs BOS (ND) – 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 29 pitches.
Yariel opened (and failed) for Eric Lauer, who allowed 2 ER in four innings. No, he’s not doing anything fun. Yes, we should move on.
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) vs MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 43% CSW, 77 pitches.
Add Gonsolin to the list of major debuts today, even if this was just from injury. We have a bit of Blame it on the Marlins on our hands as his 92/93 mph four-seamer really shouldn’t return a 35% CSW, while the curve was lollipopped over the plate to LHB constantly for a 55% CSW of its own. The slider and splitter had their moments as they used to, though – 11/37 whiffs between them is spicy – and he’s obviously worth the add given he’ll get the Marlins a second time. Those thinking he may be a major pickup for the full year should temper their expectations. The slider is good, the splitter is likely hit-or-miss, and the four-seamer will be the make-or-break pitch of each evening. Let’s hope he can get to 85+ pitches in his next one and take advantage of the great situation with the Dodgers at his back.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 99 pitches.
A VVVPQS is better than expected…? Still not good, but still better. I think. Loved the high four-seamer + down-and-away changeup to LHB at least. And sinkers inside to RHB too! That slider needs a bit of work, though. A whooooole lot of work.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs KCR (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 72 pitches.
Blegh. He didn’t locate incredibly well in this one and the Royals came out hacking, taking full advantage of Rasmussen’s 70%+ strike rate on 89% of his pitches (cutter, four-seamer, sinker). I know that’s two disappointments in a row, but you really should keep the faith. It’s a minor bump on the road.
Cade Povich (BAL) vs NYY (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.
Is it pretty? Nah. But the man survived. His four-seamer and sinker did work in the upper half and nearly got him through five frames. I wish I were a bigger fan of his changeup and sweeper, while the big hook can look pretty, but he’s still having trouble nailing it for strikes at just 6/13 here. I’m not ready to make him a 12-teamer Toby yet.
Jackson Jobe (DET) @ HOU (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 77 pitches.
The line looks rough, though Jobe still shows promise that should come out over time. I dig his heavy slider usage (43% overall for 46% CSW), but the sinker and four-seamer are simply not doing enough. Batters are heading to the plate looking for heat, allowing them to easily lay off when outside the zone, and swinging away when available. The result was neither pitch hitting a 20% CSW while the sinker recorded 9/21 strikes (blegh) and the four-seamer failed to eclipse a 60% mark. This was for a pair of fastballs that tallied for half of Jobe’s arsenal and I’m not a fan. I’d love to see Jobe pull back and let his slider, change, and curve force batters to consider something else, allowing more damage done by heaters at roughly 30-35% usage. The potential is there, I believe he needs more time on the bump to figure it all out. The silver lining? That slider is legit y’all. He just needs to figure out how to make everything else keep up.
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ SDP (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.
Bleeeegh. It wasn’t a good matchup + he was a bit unlucky with balls in play, but he has to do better locating his King-like sinker at 22-23″ of horizontal movement (maybe San Diego’s horizontal readings are off?). A 58% strike rate on the pitch and a 1.5 tick drop in velocity made it tougher to get through this lineup, while we haven’t seen a whole lot from the changeup or cutter yet this year. I imagine they’ll show up in due time and the sinker/curve can produce better outings than this on their own…if the strikes are there. Now you have a tough call. Do you hold for the Cubs? Bench and stash? Or send to the wire? I’m not dropping in my leagues (his sinker and curve are simply too good) and I’d make the start if I felt I needed to chase strikeouts. I understand if you’d rather just drop and move on, but I don’t personally recommend it.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) @ LAD (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 72 pitches.
On a day with so many exciting things happening, it’s so easy to swipe this start away from our memories. Now I know how Woody felt.
Carlos Carrasco (NYY) @ BAL (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 66 pitches.
Womp womp. That’s just how the Cookie bakes. Crumbles. What, is that a sound you’re making? No, that’s the phrase. What’s the phrase? Crumbles. STOP FALLING APART ON ME.
Jake Irvin (WSN) @ PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
Nooooooo. This is a bummer and it feels like I should listen to the laws of the Vargas Rule and let Irvin go after this one. I’m not sure I’ve seen a start before where the pitcher throws curveballs high and sinkers low (The SBS? The Sinker-Breaker Switcheroo?), but that’s what Irvin did against RHB, while the four-seamer was crushed and…OH. Irvin sat 90 mph. WELL THAT’S A PROBLEM. He’s supposed to be at least 92 mph and was roughly 94 mph last year. Yeaaaah, that explains this. You can let him go. It was fun while it lasted.
Chase Petty (CIN) vs STL (L) – 2.1 IP, 9 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 69 pitches.
Remember kids, don’t start pitchers for their MLB debuts. I can’t wait until we get regular starts from Petty. The kid throws 95/96 mph sinkers (97+ in the first!) with 16+ horizontal run at a flat angle (Savant is calling it a four-seamer, but it looks a whole lot like a sinker) and it’s easy to see how it can be successful as he looks like an arm who should be spotting the edges better than most rookies. He pairs it with a low 90s cutter that we’re going to call a slider since it moves a whole lot more than you’d expect at just a 4/5 mph difference. That pitch is going to earn so many whiffs if he can spot it regularly (the ones he did were absolutely bonkers). There’s promise in his changeup at 89 mph as well, with enough of a velocity difference to fool batters despite minimal movement (3/6 whiffs!). The package is great, the MLB debut jitters are not. It may be a moment before his next shot – this was a spot start for a doubleheader – but be ready when he does. He’s going to be a 12-teamer hold when he goes every five days.
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Better pickup – Giolito or Gonsolin?