Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 4/4: Luz Change

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs LAD (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.

I went back and forth with my ranking of Jesús Luzardo in the preseason. On one hand, there were clear changes he could make, from featuring fewer gyro sliders to RHB, to utilizing his horizontal-heavy fastball inside to LHB instead of away, and a move to the Phillies could create those conversations with a decent early matchup against the Nationals. That said, Luzardo has been a HIPSTER while healthy for years, displaying an uncanny ability to leak terrible pitches over the middle of the plate and blow up for 6 ER out of nowhere, then follow up with an astonishing performance akin to a Top 10 starter. Throw in a second matchup against the Dodgers and he seemed like a risky arm who was a one-start streamer, not a hold.

But then he crushed the Nationals. And despite all my anxiety, he obliterated the Dodgers Friday night: 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches (W). Oh dang.

As I was hoping, there was a change for Luzardo in Philadelphia, but not the one I expected – he’s throwing sweepers more than the other slider (not quite gyro…?), but oddly enough it’s sacrificing about a tick of velocity just to get horizontal break – roughly 10 more inches worth – while losing just about an inch of drop on average. Yeah, that’s a great trade-off. That sweeper wasn’t the greatest strike offering at a 58% strike rate here, but batters could not get a hold of it and it steered the ship constantly. It’s a better breaking ball for Luzardo.

It also makes the original slider better. He can save it against RHB and that catalyzed 4/11 whiffs on the pitch. You love to see that. The changeup wasn’t even at its best here and the four-seamer got away with a lot over the plate, but RHB were served five different pitches and the wide mix clearly worked.

This could be a legit shift for Luzardo. It could also be a flash in the pan and short-sighted glaze from a small sample. At any rate, we take the chance and keep moving along with Luzardo. I needed to see at least one other start after the first to give him a jump on The List and to do so against the Dodgers is obviously enough for this week’s edition.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:

 

Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs MIA (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 99 pitches.

I want to tell you AGA, but it’s the Marlins. Aces do take full advantage of phenomenal matchups like these, but still, it’s the Marlins. 11/42 whiffs on the four-seamer that wasn’t supposed to be a whiff pitch this year is obviously so fun as he’s increased its vert two inches at seven feet of extension. It’s still 15.7″ vert, but that’s not 13.5″ of vert, y’all. WE LIKE THAT. I’m shocked to see the cutter take such a heavy backseat at just five thrown with a LHB-heavy lineup, but when the heater cooks, you eat.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.

Aces gonna have themselves to blame for this Loss after he threw the ball away on a Turner steal of third to allow his sole run, but then again, Dodgers, come on. Aren’t you supposed to score more? At least the splitter and heater are working and hey! He’s not sitting LoLoc with the heater! Sure, it’s a lot of middle but there’s some up there too! DEVELOPMENT.

Tyler Alexander (MIL) vs CIN (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.

Wait, you weren’t supposed to go this long into the gam—ohhhh. You flirted with a No-hitter against the team with a 30+ inning scoreless streak! Well that’s cool. Enjoy your Gold Star and I have to believe the Brewers will try this again given the state of their rotation when they…go to Coors. Womp womp.

Tylor Megill (NYM) vs TOR (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.

HIS NAME IS TYLORD MEGILL. Maybe. I think so. Anyone got a birth certificate? The four-seamer was at 95 with 17-18″ of vert (not ~16″!) and generally located upstairs (sweet!) with the new slider landing down for a good BSB approach, allowing a sinker that wasn’t located super well to go 80% strikes while inducing outs. The problem? Just 52% strikes with the four-seamer and 59% on the slider. We’re not quite there yet, but this feels good, y’all. The intent is there! The “I’ll overcompensate to sit up” idea looks very much present and hot dang, keep it going Megill. Two starts = Suggestion, not confirmation, and yet, it’s the Marlins next. HOLD ON TIGHT.

Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs TBR (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.

He’s at 92.3 mph (not 93+) but the pitch was far better upstairs for 7/42 whiffs and got the help it needed from his splitter, cutter, and slider – each secondary returned at least a 63% strike rate, while the four-seamer was able to be coy upstairs with a 57% strike rate. This can work and if Mahle just needs more time to get his footing, then you have yourself a decent arm. Maybe Holly territory in time, possibly HIPSTER when all is said and done. Does this mean you hold on for his start against the Cubs? I think not.

Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs SDP (W) – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.

IM. AN. AGA. And look at that, 10/55 whiffs on the four-seamer! He nailed the top of the zone beautifully against RHB, while going 0/22 whiffs on his splitter, if you can believe it. Location was fine, but its movement was a bit off at a touch less drop and a ton more armside action. Splitters are weird and hard to replicate, more at eleven.

Seth Lugo (KCR) vs BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 85 pitches.

You have Lugo on your squad to be a stabilizer, not to get all the strikeouts. Thanks Lugo, now please stop featuring Donut command – either down the pipe or peering through the windows of the strikezone off the edges. You’re better than that.

Jack Flaherty (DET) vs CHW (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 95 pitches.

Thanks Flaherty, I appreciate the slider looking like its peak self, especially when the curve wasn’t as effective as we normally see. That heater still scares me plenty, but who cares.

Max Fried (NYY) @ PIT (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Does this mean we’re going to get an April with legit Fried for once? The velocity is normal at 94 mph and ran the party with 41% usage and it’s good to see him leading the way with the heater, though the changeup is still lagging behind at 44% strikes. At least the curve is still lovely for RHB. Probably a Blame it on the Pirates with a little higher WHIP than you like. At least it’s the Tigers next to help him get into his prime self.

Ryan Feltner (COL) vs ATH (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.

Despite Coors, despite the catcher’s glove getting obscured by the snow falling, and despite a near two tick drop in velocity because duh, Feltner still went 2 ER over five. That’s pretty cool, I gotta say. The Rockies’ rotation has been kinda incredible to start the year and it’s fun to see. But remember the mountain looming in the distance. Coors is undefeated.

Osvaldo Bido (ATH) @ COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 87 pitches.

I guess the flurry of snow helped the pitchers more than the batters? And the fact Bido had fewer walks in this one is pretty hilarious. Hey, can I get snow every game? I’m gonna just ignore this start because that snow and Coors just messes with everything. I’d avoid the Padres next.

Randy Vásquez (SDP) @ CHC (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 82 pitches.

This could have been a lot worse. I know some think you can get a quiet 5/6 frames of Vásquez and maybe a cheatp Win, but as you can see, he’s not a guy to chase. It’s just a bad WHIP. Oh, so you think he’s fine if he just didn’t walk those batters? Uhhh. I love the fact that I get to share my shower arguments with all of y’all.

Dean Kremer (BAL) @ KCR (L) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.

He has some days of legit promise, and other days it’s five whiffs and one strikeout with poor ratios. HAISTBMBWT?! He’s the HIPSTER of 15-teamers.

Gavin Williams (CLE) @ LAA (ND) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 75 pitches.

Come on Gavin, show me the cutter. Come on, come on…NO. Still just fastball, curve, and…SWEEPER?! Looks like that’s the same pitch but a classification change. It was solid at 70% strikes and featured just to RHB, while the heater is at 6.9 feet of extension and returning to 97 mph velocity. I just want the cutter…One day. It really would have helped here with the four-seamer missing just out of the zone to RHB a ton and removing ole reliable from the equation + he threw just one non-four-seamer to LHB (a sole curve). That can’t be the final form.

Max Meyer (MIA) @ ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.

H’ok, so is a VVPQS against Atlanta but with eight strikeouts good enough for us? Maybe. The heater is just at 95 mph and the slider went back down to 89.7 mph (not 91.8 mph), and the changeup is still figuring itself out. There is a sweeper against RHB (and some against LHB? Why?) and there is some promise, but he’s not feeling it quite yet. I’m still a little tepid at the full arsenal coming together, but eight strikeouts and potential for more? H’ok, I’m still in. This could keep coming down, though. I’m holding for the Mets.

Kevin Gausman (TOR) @ NYM (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 87 pitches.

Uhhhh. 1/25 whiffs on the splitter at a 40% strike rate. Kevin, stop making us Pause, Man. We need to eat, HAISTBMBWT?! I was already out but yeah, you should be too. Sure, it can return at some point, but when? Are you positive? Will it make up for the problems before? Who are you not getting instead?

Nick Martinez (CIN) @ MIL (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.

Blegh. The changeup wasn’t on point and his cutter failed to line the edges per usual. His sinker also let him down with just 42% strikes and this was a weird one. I’m still cool with starting him in San Francisco next.

Jonathan Cannon (CHW) @ DET (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 88 pitches.

The day we see Cannon go off, y’all better be joining me in playing the end of the 1812 Overture. It’s going to be so fun in like two years. NICK. Fine, he’ll have one of those games this year, I’m sure. Probably.

Luis F. Castillo (SEA) @ SFG (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 68 pitches.

You’ve heard by now that there are two Castillo, Luis pitchers in Seattle. We haven’t been given a middle name for the other one, so I’m going with Luis DAWG Castillo, since, you know, he has that DAWG in him. ANYWAY, Mr. Eff replaced Hancock in the rotation for obvious reasons, but sadly didn’t do a whole lot to make the Mariners feel smart for doing so. Pretty interesting how both him and DAWG have low arm slots with similar four-seamers and lean on slider/change. Too bad it’s not nearly as good.

Justin Verlander (SFG) vs SEA (ND) – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 65 pitches.

Blegh. The heater is up to 95 mph if you can believe it (likely because he was laboring and didn’t save anything in the tank per usual) and the slider sat 88/89 as well, which makes it easy for y’all to grasp that this wasn’t his best command and Seattle had comfortable at-bats. So it goes, I’m still a fan of Verlander as a Toby, especially in QS leagues.

Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 91 pitches.

OH HEY! The curveball that went 3/9 whiffs against LHB last start? 5/19 whiffs against LHB here. So double usage, same results. He also suddenly showed up with 30% changeups to LHB for 5/23 whiffs. Say what. Yup. The Nationals shoved a ton of LHB into Pfaadt’s face and he’s forced to develop. Guys, this is the first time I’ve actually been in on Pfaadt since the pre-season of his rookie year. HE THREW JUST 10 SWEEPERS. 41% usage to RHB. Right, but that’s the point. It should only be a RHB pitch. I’m so curious how this goes against the Orioles.

Jake Irvin (WSN) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.

The extension is there and the curve isn’t terrible, but the other stuff isn’t quite there. The changeup is getting more love and that’s kinda cool, but 46% strikes with exclusive LHB usage ain’t it. Keep an eye out for a Vargas Rule akin to last year.

Zack Littell (TBR) @ TEX (L) – 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.

He had a horrible third frame and props to Littell for hanging in there to allow 1 ER in six other frames. Niceties aside we saw 0/29 slider whiffs and chaos over the plate. Nooooope.

José Soriano (LAA) vs CLE (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 90 pitches.

Two HRs to JoRam will do this to ya. I will say, it’s cool to see Soriano trying out the slider against RHB, reserving the curve exclusively for LHB. That slider? 7/14 whiffs overall and that’s hot. I love him for his start against the Rays as he may be forming into the three-pitch pitcher I didn’t think he could become. Suitman whispers into my ear. HE THREW 12 SPLITTERS TOO?! Huh. All against LHB and…41% strikes, but 3/12 whiffs. He wasn’t feeling the curve as well as he normally does, so I get it, but, maybe that’s real too? MORE DEVELOPMENT.

Walker Buehler (BOS) vs STL (W) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.

You dropped Buehler after his first start right? Uhhhh. COME ON. That’s the whole point of The List rankings – QUICK. DECISIONS. Buehler is still 93/94 mph and struggling to figure out what he’s doing. The sweeper at least is working well against RHB, but the four-seamer, sinker, and cutter are not, while LHB are a mess. The curve isn’t the answer, the change and fastballs are not, and just don’t do it, okay?

Erick Fedde (STL) @ BOS (L) – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 65 pitches.

At least no four-seamers? You can trust the Feddes at moments, but inside Fenway? Naaaah, you’re not doing this right.

Mitch Keller (PIT) vs NYY (L) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.

There was a dark-horse shot of Keller throwing enough strikes to find outs in the field and sometimes the world works as you expect it to.

 

 

Game of the Day

 

Roki Sasaki vs. Aaron Nola – This may not actually be super enjoyable (I’m a Roki doubter + Nola gets the Dodgers) but that’s a super fun matchup.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)