Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs MIA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
We haven’t seen Zebby Matthews start a game since the fall of last season after losing the final rotation spot out of camp to Mick Abel. Mick…what a guy. Despite initially being vastly into Zebby and his 96/97 mph fastball with a full five-pitch mix and whiffable breakers in 2024, I’d changed my tune across 2025, skeptical of his ability to mitigate hard contact and execute an at-bat properly, finding the zone a bit too often without nailing the edges. It’s no surprise that I wasn’t enamored when the Twins announced he’d make his season debut against the Marlins on Thursday, and consider me flabbergasted when I saw he returned a glorious line of 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches (W). Nick, you GOTTA be in now! Oh how I wish I were.
At first glance, an 8% SwStr rate with a super low 32% two-strike rate in concert with an exceptionally high 63% per-batter putaway rate don’t project sustainability. In addition, the stuff we liked so much has gotten way worse, from sub-95 mph heaters (down 1.5 ticks) to giant 2-5 mph drops in velocity across all his secondaries. It’s not an exciting wipeout slider now, nay, it’s an 86mph gyro. A 78 mph curveball. A cutter with high 8″ vert sub 90 mph That’s average, if not below average. Yuuuuuuup.
This would be completely fine if I felt that Zebby were sacrificing stuff for precision, and I really don’t see it. Four-seamers were a shotgun blast centered down the heart of the plate and spreading outward. Curves, sliders, and even the rare cutter constantly landed middle-middle. His most accurate pitch was his changeup to LHB and even that went just 1/13 whiffs.
This was a game of the Marlins attacking early and failing to punish. This isn’t to say Zebby was lucky the whole game, but Koufax was kind and I’m swooning less than a flag on the moon. I expect him to stick in the rotation now and given his strike rates, he’ll give himself a chance to get through six frames. However, this may be the best we get all year. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
You simply have to start Luzardo and forget about life. A text-book Cherry Bomb. I wonder how much that sinker to RHB is truly helping him. I’d normally be against it, but we’ve seen southpaws who get their four-seamers hammered by RHB in the past introduce a sinker to add a little wrinkle (Robbie Ray, for example). Just a thought. (View Game Card)
Chase Burns (CIN) vs WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I really hate that I forced myself to put weight on his injury scare during the spring. Nick, it’s the middle of May. Over four months left of the year. Don’t you dare bring the juju in here. I can’t believe I was also convinced Burns had a higher chance of effectively adding a change and curve than his contemporaries who discussed adding a new pitch this spring. The dude is still 94% fastball/slider. (View Game Card)
Chris Sale (ATL) vs CHC (L) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He really is making a stupid good case for SP #2, isn’t he. even has the changeup and sinker working. Is it wrong for me to question his health more than Schlittler’s? No, it’s the children who are wrong. (View Game Card)
Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs PHI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 76 pitches.
I’m kinda blown away. After starting the season with two games of 4 ER, Suarez has strung together five goose eggs in his last six games, leading to a 2.44 ERA and 0.95 WHIP on the year. Suarez! The guy so many wanted to drop earlier in the year. I really need to raise him in the ranks (third straight 0 ER game), even if he was pulled early due to a drop in velocity to sub 90 mph after starting the game near 93 mph. He’s getting the cutter inside to RHB and mixing the rest of his arsenal super well armside. He’s locked in. (View Game Card)
Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs SDP (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 99 pitches.
It’s kinda funny. I don’t think this was a particularly great showing for Harrison. His curve and change were erratic, even if they ultimately got the job done. The winner was once again his high four-seamer, making me consider if Robbie Ray is his closest comp these days. He also pushed it up a full tick, nearly to 96 mph (he hit 97.9 mph in the first!) and it demolished the Friars. He’s provided a ton of evidence that he can spot that four-seamer upstairs game after game, providing a fantastic foundation that I should be praising more. By George, Harrison is legit. (View Game Card)
Ben Brown (CHC) @ ATL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 65 pitches.
Oh no. I’m going to get all the Brown questions again. I thought Hunter was hurt? Please, don’t mess with me right now. I can feel the ire of Cubs fans as they read this, but what has changed? Truly, what is different about this iteration that you believe Brown can maintain a 35% SwStr rate on his curveball (across 40% usage!) with a laughable 78% per-batter putaway rate? Or a four-seamer that suddenly isn’t put into play and instead returns a ton of foul balls, even though it has worse movement. But fine, sure. If you’re desperate for strikeouts, the curveball is a good pitch. He located it under the zone (23% zone rate) and the Atlanta left-handers went fishing for a 67% O-Swing. That doesn’t seem sustainable. NO IT DOESN’T. (View Game Card)
Michael McGreevy (STL) @ ATH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 74 pitches.
The dude keeps on going. Feel free to Vargas Rule against the Pirates up next in home sweet home. He was really feeling the sweeper to RHB in this one (44% usage to RHB!) at an 88% strike rate and incredible precision down-and-away, but there is no way he holds a 6.0 hit/9, y’all. That just can’t exist be the world he lives. And once that rises, his sub 20% strikeout rate will fail to bail him out. Just a heads up. (View Game Card)
Anthony Kay (CHW) vs KCR (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
He did it! He actually went six innings! And held a 64% strike rate! And a 47% clip on his changeup. Yeaaaah, that’s gotta get sorted out, but the cutter was inside and tunneled effectively with the four-seamer that also landed on the inner half, the sweeper…found the zone and failed to go away to LHB, the sinker was inside to LHB and super hittable to RHB. It sounds like you’re not sold. Because I’m not, of course. The command is still heavily in question and even in a start like this, Kay boasted a 10% SwStr rate. But we need these little victories, you know? Hopefully the confidence from this one gives him a little extra strength to reach the next step. (View Game Card)
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) vs SFG (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 97 pitches.
We saw much better stamina in this one from Sheehan, ending the day around 93/94 mph, while sitting 96 mph in the first. What does that mean? Well, the four-seamer returned to its whifftastic ways (22% SwStr rate), making up for a slider and changeup that each flirted with 60% strikes. I oscillate on my Sheehan take with each start, but a Golden Goal with a smoother velocity trend and four-seamer dominance makes me more convinced each time I see it. I’ll pull him up The List again… (View Game Card)
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs COL (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 76 pitches.
Ayyyy, it worked! Kinda! It’s fun watching Montgomery open for a single inning, then Carmen comes in and steals the dub across five frames with fewer strikeouts. It’s a bit disappointing against Rockie Road, but then again, there isn’t a whole lot to love about Carmen’s approach – the splitter has done well for him against LHB, but everything else is awfully…blegh. I’m not enthusiastic about a start against the Cardinals up next. (View Game Card)
Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 86 pitches.
I gotta say, it’s no fun seeing a pitcher, looking at a stat line and their pitches, going through some video, and ending in the same place of “Yeah, that happened. There’s nothing new and I already forgot what I watched.” I mean, sure, it was more sliders over the plate and he’s not using the cutter as much. But three walks against two strikeouts? Are you sure you want that? (View Game Card)
Nolan McLean (NYM) vs DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna…ace? A dub is a dub, but that’s a Dusty Donut in what I’d call his second-worst outing of the season, though he got bamboozled in the first on a three-run shot, then tossed six shutout frames. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in a game, while fanning at least six in all but his second start of the year. Atta boy. But his velocity fell 1-2 ticks. Hmmmm, that’s a little concerning. At least he held it the whole start and I wouldn’t freak out yet. (View Game Card)
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ HOU (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 108 pitches.
Is the end of the line for Castillo? On a Careful, Icarus that led to a Philly?! The Mariners could go six-man (it makes sense! It does for a lot of teams…) or have Castillo theoretically piggy-back one of their starters each week to give them extra rest, I’m not sure. At any rate, He’s gone a full six frames just twice this year, while returning fewer than 3 ER in only three of his nine starts. That’s bad. Yes, it is. I cannot express this enough – drop the fella. (View Game Card)
Chase Dollander (COL) @ PIT (L) – 1.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 28 pitches.
He was removed after the first with general arm soreness and they are trying to not freak anyone out yet. Or at least that’s what Chase said. That seems bad. SURE DOES. I’d drop Dollander if I still had him. He’d be in Coors next, anyway. (View Game Card)
Landen Roupp (SFG) @ LAD (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 105 pitches.
Blegh. After a solo shot to kick off his outing, Roupp was sitting pretty with just 2 ER to his name and off the hook for the Loss as he entered the sixth. Unfortunately, a walk and a single took him out of the game and both came around to score. He was that close to coming through against the mighty Dodgers and he still gave you seven strikeouts. His pitch separation has been elite this year and I’m buying him everywhere. Roupp is the real deal. (View Game Card)
Keider Montero (DET) @ NYM (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.
Womp womp. Your WHIP savior failed y’all against the lowly Mets crew, but even in this you get nothing outing, it’s not a complete atrocity? Returning just one whiff in seventy pitches is an atrocity. Yes, for nerds like you and me, of course. But that’s not the bottom line. YOU’RE THE BOTTOM LINE. I don’t know how to take that. THAT’S WHAT THE BOTTOM LINE WOULD SAY. I don’t endorse Montero outside 15-teamers or if you’re desperate in your 12-teamer for innings. (View Game Card)
Kris Bubic (KCR) @ CHW (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 84 pitches.
Bleeeeeegh. This was a super disappointing one after Bubic obliterated the White Sox a month ago. The changeup that has been such a major part of his attack went 0/8 CSW (wait what), and he allowed all his hits on pitches comfortably over the plate to RHB. It’s an interesting moment for Bubic, who hasn’t been diastreous, but has put his managers in purgatory. It’s a back-and-forth of success and frustration throughout the year, without a three-game stretch of either to help you make your decisions. What I’m seeing is a constant battle for his command, where he hasn’t – even in the good ones – had his full arsenal firing on all cylinders. Take that as you will (does that mean he has room to grow and this middle ground is a good floor? Or does it mean he’s overperforming and the nightmare regression is coming?). Personally, I’m starting against the Red Sox and hoping he makes things clearer. (View Game Card)
Braxton Garrett (MIA) @ MIN (L) – 1.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 64 pitches.
He’s back! And it was terrible! Some of you may have ran with it after the whole 8 IP no-hitter, but the rule of Still ILL is a rule for a reason, especially for someone like Garrett, who is not advertised as a future AGA. I don’t see a reason to stash him right now, especially with Atlanta up next, and I’d wait for a start that showcases his worth before making an add. (View Game Card)
Griffin Canning (SDP) @ MIL (L) – 1.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 64 pitches.
Oh jeez. Yes, drop Canning. It’s the Dodgers next and despite all my praise of him, this was not that man. His changeup was much better in his prior starts and it was all over the plate here, in fact, all his pitches returned 53% strikes or worse (outside of 2/3 strikes on his sweeper. Yay.), and he’s not in a good place in the slightest. As long as he’s healthy, I know there will be a time to consider him again this season. We’ll chat when that time comes. (View Game Card)
Mike Burrows (HOU) vs SEA (L) – 5.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 102 pitches.
The Astros are a mess this year at 17-28, and Burrows is a part of it. No Brown, no Valdez, no hope. As for Burrows, it does mean he’ll get a far longer runway than usual to figure all of this out. No reason to hold on while he does. (View Game Card)
Foster Griffin (WSN) @ CIN (L) – 4.1 IP, 9 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
We knew this day would come. Pitching in Cincy did him few favors and I may be underrating the Reds offense (Stewart, Elly, and JJ are killing it…), leading to a pair of HRs for five of these runs + a poor fourth frame with three hits and two walks. Can’t do that. The funny part? He didn’t pitch all that differently than what we’ve seen. Sure, his breakers and change didn’t have the same success, but high strike rates, and nearly all the damage came on one pitch: his cutter. An offering he normally gets up-and-in to RHB, but five hits came off the pitch (both HRs) as he didn’t have that legit command. I don’t think we need to drop Griffin with a start against the Mets up next. We’ve seen this over and over again – one disaster start does not mean another will follow. It can mean it and Griffin’s success has surely looked suspect, but it’s the Mets! Don’t start him in Cincy, @ATL, NYY, LAD, Coors, etc. But mid teams and worse? You should be totally fine. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Connelly Early vs. Spencer Strider – This is such a fun matchup.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
