Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Troy Melton (DET) @ BAL (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 79 pitches.
What a tease Troy Melton has been since his MLB debut last summer. His premier was a rough five inning performance (PILOT Rule n all), and we only saw two more starts of 5+ frames the rest of the year. We anxiously watched his stellar skillset as he made many relief appearances, and after elbow inflammation forced us to wait two extra months this year, Melton made his season debut (and just his fourth game above 50 pitches) against the Orioles: 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 79 pitches (W). It was good, it was fine, it was…underwhelming…?
What have I liked about Melton? His control, a 96/97 mph four-seamer foundation with near seven feet extension, 15/16″ vert, and a relatively flat-attack angle he locates upstairs, an excellent 86 slider with eight inches of extra sweep vs. a gyro that he keeps down, a 91 mph cutter as a strike pitch, an occasional splitter for whiffs to LHB, and a poor sinker that he surprises against RHB inside for strikes. There isn’t one singular pitch that I point to as his money pitch (well, it’s generally four-seamer/slider, with both having flashes but neither are absurd whiff pitches), and it’s the total package that makes me consider him as a young arm with an above-average floor who could be elite if he took another step.
On paper, Melton executed. LHB saw high heaters and low sliders with BSB execution, and his sinker did its job inside to RHB. However, his secondaries barely earned whiffs (1/18 on the slider?!) and 51% four-seamers led the way, with its 25% CSW leading his arsenal. A lot of hard contact fortunately found its way into gloves. We came with our favorite battle axe and saw a few goblins in a large field. Not a whole lot of obliterating was had.
I don’t see this as Melton’s future – the cutter can be disgusting and paired with his slider, there’s an argument for 50% usage between them, with said cutter being used more than 1/58 pitches to LHB (it would jam so many batters with its solid cut at 90+ mph!) – but it does paint the picture of a lower ceiling than the hype around him would suggest. In a sea of young arms who demand your attention, consider Melton as the low-end Holly type who could blossom across the summer nights. He’s absolutely worth the add with a good floor, just temper your expectations in the short term. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs TBR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 95 pitches.
Is it just me, or does Weathers’ season thus far feel a lot worse than a 3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 28% strikeout rate? Anyway, Weathers continues to look like a discount Luzardo (better with his ratios…? Naaaah. But maybe) with a 94/95 mph fastball (improved! Extra inch of vert, two inches more run…at the cost of 1-2 ticks of velo) and a massive struggle to wrangle his sweeper – 1/17 whiffs and 41% strikes is ghastly. It’s Sacré Verde next and maybe my vibes on Weathers is more about his incredibly easy schedule thus far (he has yet to face an elite offense). I hope he gets over that hump next time out. (View Game Card)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ NYY (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 92 pitches.
What a strange one from Rasmussen. His command was all over the place from cutters landing down the pipe to missing way out of the zone, changeups spiked constantly to LHB, sinkers running too far in, and wasted curveballs. And yet, the tried-and-true trio of cutter, sinker, four-seamer returned 35-41% CSW marks, masking the developing changeup’s failures. He’s hard to hit (60% weak contact) and I don’t expect the Angels, Marlins, or Sawx on the road to fare any better. (View Game Card)
Brandon Young (BAL) vs DET (ND) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 105 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! A lovely Gold Star for Young against a quality opponent, where he bumped his sinker usage up the wazoo to RHB, returning 81% strikes, allowing him to save his slider more often and earn a few whiffs. The man throws strikes and has a tinge of whiffability, and when paired with a leash longer than that barking dog we all know has zero right to be so close to biting your face off, it makes for a Toby play moving forward. You have to be in a position to be lucky to get lucky. (View Game Card)
Foster Griffin (WSN) @ ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
Ayyyyy there we go. Did I expect Griffin to rebound after two poor lines against Hotlanta? Absolutely not! Was I ready to give up on him entirely for the year? Also absolutely not! Now with the Padres (they hate LHP), Marlins, and Giants ahead, you best believe I’m back knocking on the Griffin door. He lived around the edges so dang well. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) @ PHI (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
I have to chuckle when witnessing a Philly in Philly, but it’s on Messick for throwing that dang four-seamer down-and-away after Stott spat on the 1-2 curveball away. So it goes. Don’t you dare take him out of the lineup. (View Game Card)
Christian Scott (NYM) @ MIA (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
Just like Messick, Scott returned a Philly by allowing a single to his final batter in the sixth. His failure? An 0-2 sweeper that hung in the middle for an easy Marsee single. Marsee ball, Marhit ball. We saw over seven feet extension, improved vert (maybe due to the dome), an extra tick up on the cutter and sweeper, and…53% four-seamer strikes. Oh come on. That’s how close he is, though, and he’ll get the Marlins a second time next weekend. Keep rolling, y’all. (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs NYM (ND) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 59 pitches.
He led this bullpen game for the Marlins after they moved on from Garrett and Snelling, and yet Phillips went 59 pitches with a 96 mph heater at 18″ of run. It was also far more wild than the line looks (especially to RHB), but that 84 mph sweeper is kinda cool…and so is the 83/84 mph hook… Okay maybe this becomes something. He needs to show me he can locate better than this before I actually pick him up. But it’s the Mets, Rays, and Sneks next. He’s not used to starting and I’m not sure he’ll be stretched out fully. Like what your doctor tells you after getting frequently getting brain freeze, Take it slow. (View Game Card)
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs TEX (ND) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 14 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 43% CSW, 96 pitches.
Nick, you told me his slider was getting worse. IT WAS! And boy am I glad it’s not anymore. This was SO GOOD. 41% SwStr on his slider alone catalyzed this Golden Goal, as Detmers earned whiffs with high heaters a whole lot of low sliders. We even saw a pair of changeups and a bounced curve in there, too, and it doesn’t matter what I say now, you start him against the Rays. We’ve seen outbursts like this from Detmers in the past that don’t hold forever if you’re trying to understand his ROS value, but right now? Who cares, it’s too good to not start him there. (View Game Card)
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs COL (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 103 pitches.
It’s easy to look at nine baserunners and get upset, but then you realize that’s a 1.13 WHIP across eight frames. His sole run came in the eighth via single, groundout, wild pitch, sac fly, which is as cheap of a run as you’ll ever find for a Careful, Icarus. Yes, I wish there were more strikeouts, but at the same time, you don’t often see eight frames without efficently generating outs before two strikes. In fact, his cutter went 60% strikes and 0% CSW as it jammed LHB for…two hits, a few outs, and foul balls. I’ll take that, and if he could only go better than a 53% strike rate on his slider, then we’d have ourselves a truly magnificent day. It’s a 2.80 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across nine games outside of the two April extreme outings. (I need name for them. The Ryne Pairing?) (View Game Card)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ MIL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
Aces gonna ace, even if The Inquisitor gave us a boring performance. The curveball is usually ole reliable but went just 35% strikes here and he muscled out a productive outing despite it. Good on ya. (View Game Card)
Framber Valdez (DET) @ BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 92 pitches.
We’ve seen a fair amount of chaos from Valdez lately and after his success against the Mets and Orioles, it’s pretty clear that Valdez misses the Houston orange. His sinker featured a boatload more run here (+2/3″!) while the curve was…okay. Valdez, buddy, you have to find that curveball again. The White Sox pack some thump and I don’t want to have this will-he-won’t-he life with you. Be more than the Cherry Bomb people forced upon you. And by people, I mean me. (View Game Card)
Mitch Keller (PIT) @ TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 101 pitches.
After a pair of rough performances in good matchups, Keller came through against an above-average offense, because That’s Baseball, Suzyn. Nothing new that suggests he can hold onto the 3.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, just a kind Koufax above the border. (View Game Card)
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) @ LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 99 pitches.
FINALLY. I guess all it took was some extra rest after leaving your last start early with an injury scare, eh? This was his first start since April 25th with seven strikeouts, thanks to an exceptional performance with his curveball, boasting a 43% CSW and 29% SwStr rate as his most thrown pitch (normally 21% usage, here 35%). He also had 95/96 mph four-seamers return a fair number of whiffs upstairs and lean into the BSB while jamming a few batters inside and it gives me a whole lot of confidence in the grand schedule of KCR, @STL, @KCR ahead. Hard not to dig that. (View Game Card)
Martín Pérez (ATL) vs WSN (L) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 86 pitches.
Shockingly, the Nationals are better against southpaws than RHP, and yet, Pérez still produced a Philly. Wait, I was promised more strikeouts. No you weren’t. That was a one-time gift. It spoiled me. You spoiled yourself. This wasn’t peak Pérez and he was incredibly fortunate in this one, especially with a ton of hung changeups and cutters, and I’d avoid him in Cincy up next. (View Game Card)
Jacob Lopez (ATH) @ SDP (W) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.
He was opened for by Medina and maybe that helped him. Or maybe it was an offense that hates facing LHP and JLo had his best changeup feel of the season. He looks a lot closer to the version we saw last year (with three inches more extension to 7.3 feet?!), but it’s the Yankees next, so hold back on any enthusiasm you have. (View Game Card)
Andrew Painter (PHI) vs CLE (L) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 82 pitches.
This was a challenge for Painter, who has embraced the sweeper/slider life to RHB (2/3 of his offerings), but against a slew of LHB, he had to adapt. The solution was his splitter, and it was his best of the season – 41% usage at 65% strikes and a 22% SwStr rate. Couldn’t have drawn it up better myself. Painted. PAINTED. It was right there. I’m not confident he can sneak in 44% called strikes with his four-seamer to LHB in the future, nor carry a 52% zone rate on said splitter, but props to him for stepping up. Now it’s time for the Dodgers and that’s a whole lot of NOOOOOPE. (View Game Card)
Dylan Cease (TOR) vs PIT (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 76 pitches.
Cease was cooking up a standard Cease start, with a first pitch HR to start the game, then another solo shot on his second pitch of the second, and striking out nearly everyone else, but then his hamstring noped out of there. He’s now on the IL and boy do I have no idea how the Jays are going to deal with this. They already have Spencer Miles eating innings for them and let loose of Lauer. Good luck. I feel for everyone involved with Cease’s injury, as he was one of the most reliable workhorses in baseball since he arrived on the scene. Injuries, man. Injuries. (View Game Card)
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs SEA (W) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 86 pitches.
This was a Careful, Icarus after six frames of 1 ER ball that became three more hits and another two runs in the seventh. It was a whole lot of “here’s a pitch, go on, do something with this one,” and it makes me really uncomfortable starting Lugo regularly, but hey, he’s a 15-team Toby and heads into Arlington next. Not bad. (View Game Card)
Peter Lambert (HOU) @ CHC (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 103 pitches.
Blegh. It was a horrendous second frame with three hits, two walks, and a HBP to load the bases, but a rather clean outing in his other four frames. He struggles with his changeup and slider, forcing the four-seamer and cutter to step up and take care of business when needed, which isn’t great. Not at all. However, I love the pitch count and I generally believe both of those pitches will be there more than not, which makes the MIL, ATH, @KCR schedule not a terrible play. He’s a Toby, hoping to be a low-end Holly, and our hopes of the latter have dwindled after posting 16 strikeouts in his first two starts, followed by no start above six strikeouts since. (View Game Card)
Sonny Gray (BOS) vs MIN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 75 pitches.
You could tell this was a struggle for Gray. Lots of foul balls, terrible four-seamers, and missing just off the plate led to a fair number of tough at-bats and jams. It happens, and let’s be fortunate this Gray outing wasn’t worse. (View Game Card)
Brandon Sproat (MIL) vs LAD (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches.
The fella battled against a premier offense and they made him work. I’m shocked he featured just four sweepers and six curveballs on the day, leaning heavily on the Rasmussen trio instead (four-seamer, sinker, cutter) and I don’t quite follow. Your breakers are filthy, Sproat. Let them FREE. I’m still sitting on hands as I wait for the game that let’s me hype him up, and who knows, maybe that’s @HOU next or hosting the Giants after. A man can dream. (View Game Card)
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ BOS (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 82 pitches.
The Red Sox are one of the worst teams against RHP in all of baseball. Ober has one of the slowest fastballs of any starter and was even slower here at 87.6 mph. Immovable object. Unstoppable force. Please don’t roster Ober. (View Game Card)
Bryan Woo (SEA) @ KCR (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 91 pitches.
Aces gonna have a dumb fifth inning with a walk, bunt single with a throwing error, groundout, flyout, intentional walk, single, double, SHOWERS. Jensen’s double was off a terrible 2-1 heater down the pipe, for what it’s worth, but let’s be real. This was stupid. Woo deserves so much better than a 3.82 ERA right now. (View Game Card)
Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs DET (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 90 pitches.
You know how I’ve been shouting that Rogers is pitching better than the lines suggest? Well, this wasn’t one of those starts. 53% strikes on his four-seamer with a whole lot more scatter than usual and a tick down from his last two games + a terrible feel for his cutter and sweeper, which had decent results but were inconsistently executed. It was disheartening. Two starts against the Jays are next and I don’t feel the need to hold. (View Game Card)
Robbie Ray (SFG) vs CHW (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 Hits, 7 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 92 pitches.
Jeeeez, what is wrong with Ray? That’s two straight where his secondary command was an atrocity – the trio of sliders, changeups, and curves averaged a 41% strike rate. FORTY-ONE PERCENT. At least his four-seamer was properly getting upstairs again, but yeeeeeeeesh, he’s lost right now. It’s wise to give him a break in Coors next time out and let him recalbirate. Nick, he’s a HIPSTER with a 4.60 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Well, that’s not fair. This was a 2.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP for his first eight starts, then the Dodgers + the current two-start hilarity has messed it all up. This speaks a phase rather than an innate flaw. I mean, there is obviously a flaw right now, but not one that will always live there, that’s all I’m getting at. (View Game Card)
Michael King (SDP) vs ATH (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.
Womp womp. King wasn’t at his sharpest, but he was certainly his dullest in the fourth, where he walked three and threw a wild pitch. It’s awfully disappointing as we just had three brilliant outings from the fella, and this wasn’t even in Sacré Verde. I sure hope it’s not a case of the feel for his cross-body mechanics getting out of sync. I think it’s a One Night Bland as we can’t deny him against the Nationals, Mets, and Reds Carpet up next. (View Game Card)
Noah Schultz (CHW) @ SFG (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 70 pitches.
I dug the changeup last time out from Schultz and we saw it just five times in this one, with just one whiff on seventy pitches – one of his eight sweepers. Oh dear, my bread! Yes, HAISTBMBWT?! It’s time to ignore Schultz for a while, y’all. His start in Seattle was, in retrospect, a clear Dennis. (View Game Card)
Jose Quintana (COL) @ ARI (L) – 1.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 33 pitches.
Well, the dream of the sweet Rockie Road start is dead. Sigh. (View Game Card)
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs HOU (L) – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 94 pitches.
Uh oh. That’s two straight disasters from Imanaga, with three HRs here and six across his last three. That said, sixteen whiffs and a 92 mph four-seamer + the ability to recover from a horrific fifth inning to fan two in a clean sixth should not be ignored. The window to sell Imanaga has likely closed, but you may get to open it a crack after he heads to St. Louis on Friday. I’m starting him there, believe it or not, even if IM AN AGA is a hopeful statement instead of a fact. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Janson Junk vs. Trey Yesavage – Will Junk have stellar PLV marks again? And will it actually speak to the results? Can Yesavage continue his dominance?
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
