Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Ty Madden (DET) vs BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.
My job is to highlight the surprises you may have overlooked on a daily basis and among a heavily wounded Tigers rotation, Ty Madden appeared as the bulk arm in Skubal’s place to return a beautiful performance of 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches (L), acting as host for the Red Sox. With Mize and Skubal out, SGL and Melton hurt, and bullpen chaos taking over for Detroit, 81 pitches of quality from Madden is sure to force them to keep him around for at least one more go, which lines up with a date in Kansas City. And yes, it could work, though you may not want to.
Madden’s fastballs grant the most compelling reason to avoid him. They are below average in everything, from 92-95 mph velocity, deadzone movement, a steep attack angle, and just six feet of extension. Yikes. It’s a real issue and I believe it’s enough to end the conversation now. Clearly his secondaries are his champions, and leading the way is an 88 mph cutter that features more than ideal lift, but was phenomenal in this one, boasting a 46% CSW and 79% strike rate as his most thrown pitch (30%) usage. He threw it confidently to both LHB and RHB, and I’d argue he needs to throw it even more instead of relying on 50% heaters.
And that’s it. Wait, what. Yeah, disappointing, isn’t it? There’s a splitter and a slider, but both were poorly commanded and should not be seen as strong options. This sets the stage for him to be Rocker-like, as if he featured his cutter over the slide piece. That doesn’t sound good. Well, I prefer Rocker throwing cutters over his slider, but yeah, it’s not good. His command may help him get to the finish line, but there’s simply too much risk to go after this with such a limited arsenal and terrible heaters.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Davis Martin (CHW) @ LAA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 85 pitches.
Hot DANG, look at you! I considered Martin a Vargas Rule and was cool starting him here, not knowing how much longer it would stick around, but nineteen whiffs for a Gallows Pole? Ten strikeouts?! Jeeeeez, this was AWESOME. Now, 9/13 whiffs on sliders isn’t the most sustainable thing you’ll see, nor are his absurdly high putaway rates, but Martin got so much extra drop on all his secondaries and absolutely thrived with his slider and changeup downstairs all game. H*ck, he even went 10/11 strikes with a 55% CSW on his cutter. He’s commanding super well, he’s mixing and matching his large arsenal, and yeah, we keep starting the dang man. Wow. I’d have him up like 20 spots after this one, near all the youngins on The List – how could I not with a 25% strikeout rate and sub 5% walk rate after seven starts?
Payton Tolle (BOS) @ DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.
ATTA BOY. Tolle is giving us all the emotions after three starts and we still don’t know what’s ahead. At the very least, he’s sticking in this rotation and gets the Rays up next, hopefully with the same 77% strike rate on his four-seamer + a good supporting cast like 13/15 strikes on his curveball for a 53% CSW. All I want is him to throw strikes with his four-seamer and two other pitches. Is that so hard to ask? WE HOLD.
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
Phew. Nola, we needed this. You needed this. Now go have a ball against Rockie Road and continue to land on the east-west edges with your fastballs. It’s good to see you avoid the heart of the plate once again like the old days.
Trevor McDonald (SFG) vs SDP (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 81 pitches.
Oh wow That’s a Gold Star with a King Cole for Buck (Huge props if you get this dumb joke). I really missed this one. No, I didn’t forget about his fantastic end of last season, trust me, I was endorsing it massively. Instead, I undersold his pitch count and the effectiveness of his sinker, which was thrown 63% of the time and rightfully so. That pitch is a true sinker at 1.4″ vert and fantastic 17/18″ ride, which he confidently landed in the zone without fear for 84% strikes. It meant he could save his elite 86/87 mph slider for whenever he wanted and life was bliss. Here’s the wrinkle: He’s probably not starting again right away, and if he did, it would be the Dodgers. The Giants have been incredibly fortunate to maintain a healthy rotation thus far and that dam is sure to break soon enough. When that time comes, yeah, I’m down. That’s a great sinker and elite breaker. And who knows, maybe he figures out how to avoid hitting batters with his new 93/94 mph cutter.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs BAL (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna see that I ranked him SP #2 and toss his worst outing of the year. This had a bit of Careful, Icarus with four baserunners and allowing his sole run by walking his two final batters. Wanna know the crazy part? He sat 99.6 mph, hitting 101.3 mph. Two ticks up in this one. He must have lost it during the game. I mean, his final heater was 98.6 mph, with a low of 97.2 mph in the sixth on his four-seamer. Absolute madman.
Kyle Leahy (STL) vs MIL (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
Okay Nick, you said that the last start with seven strikeouts wasn’t enough, is this one enough? You already know the answer. But one earned run! Seven whiffs. 38% strikes on curveballs. 58% on his four-seamer. 2/18 whiffs on sliders. He’s not there yet. No, he’s not there yet.
Janson Junk (MIA) vs PHI (L) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.
OH SNAP. He commanded his arsenal. Like actually commanded his arsenal. BSB to LHB, sweepers and sliders properly down to RHB. That’s two starts of high heaters, one of low breakers, and seeing a 71% strike rate with 24% SwStr to LHB is making me lean toward starting him against the Nationals on Saturday. I hope it works.
Nick Martinez (TBR) vs TOR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 71 pitches.
Duuuude, what a ride, eh? Now he gets Fenway and despite all the reasons for this not to work, it’s a Vargas Rule. I get it, even if it gives me the bleeps, sweeps, and the creeps.
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 79 pitches.
Yessssss. Thank you, Wacha, for confirming my whole narrative about your last two starts + embracing your ability to take down LHB. He saw few strikeouts in this one due to a whole lot of contact finding quick outs (sub 40% two-strike rate = few chances to get a strikeout at all), but there is something to be said about earning only two whiffs here. I’d be cautious against the Tigers, but then again, let it ride, let it ride. @STL + BOS after seems solid after, so might as well hold.
David Peterson (NYM) @ COL (W) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 69 pitches.
Who would have thought Peterson’s best line of the season would come in Coors? No one, that’s who. It was a 4.50 ERA. Best. Line. Of. The. season. Okay, okay.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ HOU (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna mostly ace and return a satisfactory PQS. The Inquistor got bamboozled in the first for a pair of runs and that was pretty much it. Wait. That’s not it. No, there is SO MUCH MORE THAN IT. No way. He didn’t. YES HE DID. Are you telling me Yamamoto actually lived in the top third of the zone with his four-seamer?! YUP. Okay, fine, did it return any hits? NOPE. Whiffs? 25% SWSTR RATE. Strikeouts? THREE. Oh snap. WELCOME TO THE NEW AGE. Boy that bit went on too long, but I truly am excited to see Yamamoto finally take advantage of his flat four-seamer, which has suddenly gained 1.6″ of vert to an excellent 18″ mark at 96 mph with high intent. 83% strikes and a 58% CSW. What took you so dang long?!
Edward Cabrera (CHC) vs CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
Oh jeez, a VVVPQS during a stroll down the Reds Carpet?! What did they do, bombard you with uncomfortable questions?! The Reds were all over his sinker (2/7 hits and lots of hard contact) and the four-seamer couldn’t be trusted, but the changeup is still so legit. Welp, we keep riding this, of course. It’s @TEX and the CrySox next, after all.
Chase Petty (CIN) @ CHC (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 75 pitches.
At least he’s not walking the farm! Petty sports a 90/91 mph gyro slider that can be incredibly fun if he were to actually spot it away from RHB, while he really tried making his changeup a thing and it didn’t do enough, leading to just one strikeout in his season debut for a HAISTBMBWT?! He’s not the answer you’re looking for.
Randy Vásquez (SDP) @ SFG (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 88 pitches.
Blegh. It was wild watching Casey Schmidt be the bane of his existence in this one, from a two-run shot in the first in a full count, a ten-pitch full-count walk in the third, and another full count in the fifth, ending on a challenged strike-three call that stood. And it wasn’t pretty, but acceptable through five frames, but the sixth arrived, where Vásquez allowed another run on a sac fly and couldn’t get the final out, getting relieved after allowing just one more single. That’s a Philly and the concerns emerge that he’s just a Toby following two starts of sub 10% SwStr rates. The culprits are his cutter and changeup, which haven’t deceived nearly as much as before. The changeup feel overall has been lacking as of late, too, and I wouldn’t consider it something that’s going to stick. He returned two strikeouts here with a 7% putaway rate. 7%! Stupid Schmidt making things hard for Vásquez. There’s also the fear that Vásquez’s 96 mph velocity is fading, sitting 94/95 mph instead. That’s still a tick up from last year, but not quite the overpowering heater. Nevertheless, I’d still give it a go against the Cardinals and take it from there. He’s a 15-team Toby at worst, a 12-team Holly at best.
JR Ritchie (ATL) @ SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 6 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.
He tossed five shutout frames, though each inning came with its own challenge, especially the fifth with two walks and a HBP, and especially especially the first that literally came with a challenge that overturned a strikeout into a walk. For a guy who is supposed to live off great command, that doesn’t seem like great command. Now it’s the Dodgers? Yeaaaah, no thanks. I could see myself jumping back in after when he hosts the Sawx and heads to Miami, but it’s not enough value to hold.
Eric Lauer (TOR) @ TBR (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 61 pitches.
No one is still doing this, right? Cool.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 89 pitches.
Four solo shots off the Hotlanta bats, one on his third pitch of the day (a low 1-1 slider), then three more in the sixth. He left the game down 4-0 and Seattle rallied to give him five in the bottom frame, helping him earn just his second Win in eight starts. This isn’t an Ace, y’all. I’m sorry Gilly, but you haven’t fanned more than seven once, and this was just your third start of six frames. When you’re able to return more than 15 whiffs in a single game, which would require consistent feel of multiple pitches, then I’ll bring you back in under the fold.
Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) vs NYM (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 61 pitches.
Sugano has been finding a way this year, and I had originally checked in after five frames to see him throwing a no-hitter. So, obviously, he allowed a lead-off HR in the sixth, two doubles, a walk, a groundout, and a hook. That’s four runs in the books and a Careful, Icarus. He was pulled at 61 pitches! How close is he allowed to get to the sun?! WHATEVER DISTANCE IS NECESSARY TO SURVIVE. I constantly wonder if he’s worth picking up in deep points leagues. There’s no way, right?
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ KCR (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.
Why are you still flipping that coin? Why are you still carrying any coins at all? Fun Fact that is not a fun fact and it feels weird to say Joyless Fact: Bibee is 0-5 through eight starts. Yeeeesh.
Chad Patrick (MIL) @ STL (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 64 pitches.
Did I want to make him my streamer pick? Nah. Did I still overvalue him? Yes. He’s down to a 15% strikeout rate despite an 11% SwStr rate. I think that might be the smallest difference K-SwStr rate I’ve seen from a pitcher over 30 innings thrown. How? Putaway rate, y’all. Putaway. Rate. (It’s 13% for Patrick on the year and was a miraculously high 36% here to earn four strikeouts). ANYWAY, it’s the Yankees and Dodgers in two of his next three and I’ve spent too much time on Patrick.
Shane Baz (BAL) @ NYY (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 96 pitches.
He threw a terrible hook to Judge in the first for a two-run blast, then ran into a Careful, Icarus in the sixth where three runs scored, two attributed to Baz. WHOA. What was that sound?! Oh, don’t be startled. That was just the Rays cackling maniacally as they watched the Orioles keep Baz in the game dozens of pitches more than Tampa’s decision bot would have allowed. We’re in the same place we were before – nothing is truly different about Baz to suggest he can break out of mediocrity.
José Soriano (LAA) vs CHW (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 88 pitches.
Two poor outings, both against the White Sox. This was a combination of worse curveball and sinker feel (38% strikes on 13 curveballs = a horrible day) + Koufax grabbing a free refill of popcorn when he thought he could step out without missing anything. Why didn’t you just go to Alamo Drafthouse? It was sold out, alright? Soriano’s last outing could have been blamed on neck stiffness, but this one is a little more inside the typical regression we were expecting. He’s done so well and had two poor games against the same team that you’re going to start him against the Jays, but then you may sit against the Dodgers if it’s not convincing, making potentially four starts of Wait a second… Hypothetical, of course, and I really hope he kills it next time out.
Ryan Weiss (HOU) vs LAD (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 95 pitches.
He really hasn’t found his footing yet, even if this was the Dodgers. I feel for him.
Game of the Day
Kevin Gausman vs. Drew Rasmussen – Six easy frames apiece, coming your way.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photos courtesy of respective owners | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
