Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Logan Webb (SFG) vs SDP (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 62 pitches.
What do you do about Logan Webb? He returned his fourth start of at least 4 ER on Tuesday via 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 62 pitches (L) and this is getting unnerving. A 5.06 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP is not the SP #1 you thought you were getting, nor is the 20% strikeout rate from the NL leader in strikeouts last season.
There are three shocking marks thus far. First is the easy one: His LOB Rate is hilariously low under 65%. That’s the luck of baseball, and it’ll change in time…if he doesn’t allow 10 hits/9. The second is the catalyst of that LOB: Laughably terrible BABIP to LHB, ranging from .367 to .500 across his sinker, change, and sweeper. Yikes. Yeah, that’s not coming with a major ICR shift, so once again, not something that should stick. The third, though, is interesting. Webb’s sweeper has never been the most whiffable offering, but it has gone to a new level this year, earning just five whiffs this season across the 151 he’s thrown. That’s a 3% SwStr rate on 151 sweepers. There’s yer problem.
I have to believe that sweeper will get better, especially considering it has gained over three inches of sweep this year at the cost of just one inch of vertical drop. Sadly, it’s the Dodgers and Sacré Verde up next, making a one-time bench likely in order in the short term, but I don’t see a “broken” Webb here. The course will improve.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs ATH (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. A Gallows Pole while sitting 96 mph on your sinker, eh? You even got your changeup under the zone, not in the zone here. THAT’S THE DUDE WE LOVE.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs PIT (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 103 pitches.
I love when a guy like ERod returns to show he can go seven strong and be a great Toby against a poor lineup. I appreciate you Erod. Now go soar against the Mets, too.
Peter Lambert (HOU) vs LAD (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 104 pitches.
It’s really hard to tell what is real across three games where we see the great, the meh, and the terrible. I’ll bench him every time with the information I had, and let’s be real, four walks and four strikeouts should not return seven shutout against the Dodgers. He got a lot of help from Koufax and I’m not absurdly in for the Mariners up next. I’m down, of course, just want to be more convinced.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ CHC (ND) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
Don’t call it a comeback. Because you never left or because this isn’t real? Yes. Uhhhh, I’ll just wait for another start or two, then. I don’t love that his four-seamer returned just 55% strikes with some horrible misses, but he did locate where he intended to across all four of his pitches often to RHB. That’s a good sign, but you know, four walks.
Brayan Bello (BOS) @ DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
WELL HOW DO YOU DO?! Bello had an opener and held the fort with just one run on three hits in the fifth. What we saw was an improved sweeper (about 2 inches more sweep and drop) and far better feel for it against RHB for 71% strikes, while he kept the change and curveball down super well to LHB. That said, there were many hittable pitches to RHB here and Koufax certainly threw him a bone, while Bello also found a way to put away the few batters he saw in two-strike counts, even if it took a few pitches. You can give it a try against the Rays up next if you’d like, this could very well be a Dennis, though. Be careful.
Luis Severino (ATH) @ PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 102 pitches.
It’s pretty clear that you’re safe to pitch Severino outside of Sacré Verde, even if he gave you a 1.80 WHIP. And only three strikeouts. And a loss. Hey wait, that’s a Dusty Donut, I thought they only served Dunkin’ in Philly?!
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) @ HOU (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. A King Cole is lovely, but what’s better is Ohtani going more than six frames in a start. Where’s my dub though? I dunno, maybe you left it where everything else is spoiled. Hey now.
George Kirby (SEA) vs ATL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 88 pitches.
He pitched great and would have had more strikeouts if he weren’t so dang efficient at ending at-bats early in counts. Well, if he earned more whiffs, then he’d get to two strikes more than 42% of the time. Very true, but be happy, alright? FINE.
Taj Bradley (MIN) @ WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 96 pitches.
I know I come across like I’m upset when Bradley does well, but I’m not! I legit want this to continue. We’ve waited so long for Bradley to come through on his stuff and his success is really cool to see. Then why are you so “down” on him? Well, as y’all know, I watch him and I don’t routinely see an arm who can execute, just like I’m down on Jack Leiter, more down than ever on Bubba Chandler, and avoided Joe Boyle for ages. Across this season, Bradley has had moments of locating, though he’s still constantly battling his mechanics. That said, this start was much better. Four-seamers in the zone (that’s okay!), with high cutters and low(ish) curves and splitters. Yes, I wish this were a proper BSB, and that four-seamer was still a sub-60 % strike rate at the end of the day (he really struggled against RHB), but it is cleaner than the massive volatility of years past. I see his 2.87 ERA + 1.19 WHIP with a 26% strikeout rate and it still looks a lot prettier than it should be, let alone all but two of his starts with six IP this year – efficiency?! From Taj?! – and the looooong track record of having great stuff and chaotic command mixed with many signs of that wart still existing is why I’m not shooting him up The List like other arms. Fortunately, we’ll get one more on Sunday against the Guardians on Sunday and if he’s able to go 66% strikes again (13/14 strikes with his cutter?!) or at least not look like the undulating man of old, then yes, he’ll get a sizeable bump.
Bryce Elder (ATL) @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.
The dude won’t stop. This time around, he flexed a new changeup with two inches more overall fade and it returned 5/11 whiffs and a trio of strikeouts. I just wrote that whole thing about Bradley, am I really going to have to do it about Elder, too? Here’s the really interesting part. His BABIP is super low (lucky, right?) and yet, he’s posting an elite ICR rate at a 32.6% clip. He’s more deserving of better results than ever before. Not against RHB. That’s right, it’s only against LHB and it’s dramatically lower. The answer? It’s really simple, actually. The cutter. Introducing the pitch has changed batters from looking heater/breaker to now shrouding his slider, creating sub 30% ICR marks for both the slider and cutter. Last year? 40%+ ICR on sliders and the cutter didn’t exist. That’s your change. I guess I’m actually in on this…against LHB. And here I thought RHB were his bread-and-butter. They should be, but that’s his clear weakness now with the ole sinker/slider. Welp, guess we’re riding this out for as long as it’ll last. This was a huge miss by me – and it was a cutter! A CUTTER! How could I?
Kevin Gausman (TOR) @ TBR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 96 pitches.
The splitter returned 60%+ strikes again (phew), but it wasn’t the dopest of dope that we’ve seen. Whatever, we’ll take it.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs CIN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.
I really appreciate you, Taillon. I don’t ask for much, just for you to look at the gift in front of you and say “This is great, thanks so much!” My man.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) @ ARI (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 6 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
The man obliterates some batters, then just loses others. At least he’s harder to hit now…? Sigh. One day, y’all.
Sam Aldegheri (LAA) vs CHW (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 69 pitches.
I didn’t expect anything and I’m still disappointed. Maybe one day we’ll see a SWATCH out of him. Until then, our bread will remain dry as your favorite spice rub.
Stephen Kolek (KCR) vs CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
Kolek stepped in for Noah Cameron, who could return for the next turn, kicking Kolek right back out. This wasn’t anything exceptional – two whiffs?! – though Kolek is generally more capable against RHB lineups. That said, there were some filthy 90 mph cutters in here, and a 39% CSW on four-seamers (all called strikes) is hot. There could be Toby value here if he gets legs.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 85 pitches.
Ehhh, alright, a PQS is fine. The new changeup wasn’t nearly as good (just 2/4 strikes) and Koufax was pretty dang cruel with plenty of hits coming from jam shots. We good.
Elmer Rodríguez (NYY) vs TEX (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
Elmer’s second start was a bit similar to his first (same opponent, included) and I’m still concerned about his attack to LHB, even if he earned more whiffs than I expected. In addition, he really couldn’t get his slider high enough to RHB and the sinker was hurled comfortably over the plate instead of landing on the inside edge. He’ll be replaced by Carlos Rodón next time out and I wouldn’t circle him whenever he returns to the majors. If there’s a legit hole to fill this summer for an extended period of time, it’ll be Carlos LaGrange, not Elmer.
Cade Cavalli (WSN) vs MIN (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 76 pitches.
The curveball was disgusting to LHB and everything else struggled, especially his entire RHB approach. He’ll get more LHB against the Marlins, though, so maybe there’s a decent chance there? Ehhhh, I don’t love this.
Walker Buehler (SDP) @ SFG (W) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.
Ayyy a dub! That’s nice. Welp, see ya later.
Erick Fedde (CHW) @ LAA (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 75 pitches.
This was the day of many arms falling apart for one of their worst games of the year, and yeah, Fedde is one of them, returning his first 4 ER game. At least we can allow those holding as a Vargas Rule to drop him cleanly.
Chris Bassitt (BAL) @ MIA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 76 pitches.
Bassitt didn’t get the chance to feast on RHB, and that’s your ball game. Yes, it’s really as simple as that. By the way, his four-seamer and cutter seem to be the same offering these days, which is its own bag of huh.
Gavin Williams (CLE) @ KCR (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.
Two HRs off a pair of terrible breakers to LHB were the culprit of most of the damage, but at least he’s throwing a ton of strikes now. I’ll take my chances. Remember, you’re gonna like it but you’re not gonna like it.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ NYY (L) – 6.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Aces gonna get trounced by the Yankees. He almost toughed it out for a PQS, but a Jazz HR with two outs in the sixth, then getting relieved with two on in the seventh ballooned his ERA. He’s still deGrom, the Yankees simply got to him. Whatareyagonnado.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs BAL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 106 pitches.
Oh no. He did not pitch well. An eleven pitch walk to lefty Beavers came without a single changeup (WHY!?), he hung sliders galore, left fastballs over the plate, and his only saving grace was…THE CHANGEUP. You know, your best pitch that you located pretty dang well across this outing, save for one hanger to Alonso. I’m just…ugh. I know, it’s two clunkers and 3 ER or fewer otherwise (hey, like Valdez below!), but it’s really frustrating to watch Sandy struggle to execute. I have to lower him on The List, even if the upside of last year’s second half is still very present + the likely benefits that come whenever he likely gets dealt this summer.
Framber Valdez (DET) vs BOS (L) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 60 pitches.
Ohhhhh my. This was a game of Koufax being cruel, yes, but there was also a lot of talk about the Red Sox figuring out how to read Valdez’s grip and conveying it to the batter, which would make a lot of sense given the high strike rate of everything, which normally returns far better results. That said, this wasn’t a game of Valdez locating well at all (four pitches down the pipe for two singles and two HRs, for example), and who knows, it could just be Valdez being classic Valdez. He’s been lights out across six of his games this year, but now carries a 4.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP due to 15 ER and 22 baserunners in those two disasters of 8.0 IP. Don’t let the extreme outings distance you from his routine value.
Game of the Day
Paul Skenes vs. Michael Soroka – Hey Skenes, show em why you’re SP #1, please. And Soroka, prove to us last outing was a major outlier. K, thx.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
