Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Robbie Ray (SFG) vs WSN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 93 pitches.
Do we flat-out drop Robbie Ray? You may already have and if you’ve kept the faith, you had to endure 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 93 pitches (ND) against the Nationals and now stare at the barrel of Hotlanta in two of the next three starts. So, I should drop, yeah? Probably.
Here’s the thing. Ray has fallen off a cliff so suddenly that either A) There’s some weirdness going on that he needs to correct, like the release point on his slider or re-find the grip, that I can bluntly call “out of rhythm,” or B) He’s hiding an injury. I’m inclined to favor the former, given his four-seamer has stayed true around 93/94 mph, including two ticks up on all secondaries against Washington. So what is the problem?
Ray being ray, of course. He’s found a good feel for his changeup and has returned a ton of fastball strikes, but the slider. Ohhhh no the slider. Four of his last five games have come with a 43% strike rate or lower, all worse than any of his previous nine starts of the season. It was a disaster here at 36% strikes and if you’re holding, it’s because you believe it’ll return to form…next time out. It’s a difficult decision that is based on your situation: If you’re in a comfortable spot, bench Ray and stash for a moment. If you’re needing help now, I can’t tell you when the TIARA will be removed, and this HIPSTER is likely worthy of the wire.
Where I have Ray, I’m being foolish and holding, simply because the replacements aren’t worth my time. Bench him against Hotlanta in roto leagues and hope for the best. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Brandon Young (BAL) vs SEA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
I gotta hand it to Brandon. I’ve been tepid on him, yet he’s boasted a 2.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across his last seven games, returning at least six frames in five. This one had better feel than usual for his splitter to LHB, while the slider – despite 50% strikes – claimed 6/14 whiffs as the sinker did a fabulous job jamming RHB inside. Now he faces the Mariners again, but this time in Seattle and it’s a little tempting. I see this as the peak, though, and without reliable whiffs, it feels like a trap play. I see it as a 15-teamer Toby option, not one to rush and grab in 12-teamers. (View Game Card)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs BOS (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 13 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 97 pitches.
DUUUUUDE. I watched this one and it was an absolute joy. That cutter was brilliant as he figured out how to diffuse LHB with the pitch down-and-in, while the four-seamer destroyed upstairs to collect five strikeouts. If not for a poor sinker down the pipe and a stellar 0-2 changeup that was flipped into the outfield for a single, it had perfect game written all over it. Just completely decimated. This is the ceiling we dreamed of when we knew the Rays were returning to the Trop this year. Yeah, you’re starting him against the Dodgers. (View Game Card)
Davis Martin (CHW) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
I’d given up. I told myself, “I don’t want Martin, I want Taylor.” Is that a guitar joke or are you referring to Grant? Yes. Anyway, the four-seamer was far better than usual at a 18% SwStr rate across 22% usage, while the slider and cutter returned incessant strikes at a near 80% clip between them. Does this mean we hold for the Yankees and Tigers next? That’s up to you. It sure feels like that was the Vargas Rule mulligan I often mention, which I’m now regretting I didn’t follow, even with Atlanta here. Good luck, Davis, I sure hope this outing was you getting back on the horse. (View Game Card)
Shota Imanaga (CHC) @ COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 90 pitches.
YESSSSSS. There was a hot mic on the field and I could hear him mutter IM AN AGA walking off the field in the fifth. This was COORS and he still held 92 mph, while the heater dominated per usual, the splitter returned a 35% SwStr rate, and the sweeper did its job at 8/12 whiffs. Now he has to head back to Wrigley for two (not ideal), but at least it’s the same Colorado offense for Rockie Road. I led with him last week and I hope you bought back in. He’s returned 16, 17, 18 whiffs consecutively in three of his last four games, ignoring the hideous outing with four whiffs on May 29th that feels like the rando who was accidentally invited to the potluck. I brought bread! This is one side of a half-toasted English muffin. Yeah, and I brought it. I sure hope this continues. (View Game Card)
Ryan Gusto (MIA) vs ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 66 pitches.
That’s a great effort from Gusto, who is showcasing the wide arsenal once again, with a 18/19″ vert at a tall arm angle, but pairs it with some solid breakers and a massive changeup drop. There’s potential here if they keep stretching him out and he locates as well as he did here. How about we let him stay on the wire for the Phillies, and if it looks promising, we snatch him up for SFG and @STL after? (View Game Card)
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs HOU (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 89 pitches.
Wow. I was incredibly skeptical after his dominance against the Dodgers that came with poor slider command and what do we get in his next outing? Why, more questionable slider command! Not in the inefficient way, but in the “I don’t care where it is, I’m throwing strikes” way. In fact, he returned 82% strikes on the pitch without a hit (48% CSW!), landing the pitch often at the top or middle-down inside the zone to RHB without punishment. The sole hit was a solo shot in the sixth that ended his perfect-o bid and I’m flat out astonished. This doesn’t add up. Sure, there is a lot of movement separation between the slider piece and his four-seamer, but not this much…right? Nick, 20″ drop differential, sometimes 25″, is a big deal. Huh. Maybe I’ve been underrating that. Then again, this was a stupid unsustainable CSW on his slider with an 82% strike rate after two games sub 60%. At least it’s the Sneks next, so we’re all gung-ho for that. (View Game Card)
Brandon Sproat (MIL) @ ATH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 68 pitches.
I’m sorry. WHAT. Take your dang Gold Star, Sproat. This dude returned just one game under 2 ER since April 16th, and on his last breath in the Milwaukee rotation, went to Vegas, and returned six innings of one run ball. Better to be lucky than good. The Athletics went hacking and Koufax was so dang kind. Unreal. He really loved his cutter here and it played well to LHB, but man, I can’t trust this. Will Milwaukee trust this? (View Game Card)
Foster Griffin (WSN) @ SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
This is exactly why y’all have held onto Foster. The dude is a solid Toby and we love him for it. KCR is next and we’re going with him there, too. Kinda interesting to see him live away nearly exclusively to RHB in this one, too. Backdoor cutters and breakers, dotted four-seamers…it was interesting. (View Game Card)
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) @ TOR (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.
Despite all his frustration, this is exactly why he’s on your roster. Thanks, fella. But that WHIP! Four walks! Sure, he served you a Philly with two walks and a single, scoring his lone ER in the sixth inning, but dems the breaks. He’s a Cherry Bomb. You know this, I know this, what are we even doing here? (View Game Card)
Michael Lorenzen (COL) vs CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
You know, the Cubs are on such a cold stretch that Lorenzen was able to return just his fifth start under 3 ER this year. In Coors. What a lovely Birthday Party. (View Game Card)
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs TEX (ND) – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 44 pitches.
Lugo took a screaming liner off Nimmo’s bat to the forehead and somehow walked off the field on his own volition. This stuff is terrifying and I’m so glad he’s okay. I wouldn’t be surprised if he missed a moment for concussion protocol or just “Hey dude, chill for a sec.” (View Game Card)
Mike Paredes (MIN) @ DET (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 58 pitches.
Good ole bullpen games. Wait, no. Bad ole bullpen games. BAD. (View Game Card)
Peter Lambert (HOU) @ LAA (ND) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 91 pitches.
I was so tempted to push him into the Probably Start tier and maybe I should have. Or maybe both solo shots could have been timed worse for a poor ER outing. At any rate, his slider held a poor 52% strike rate, but the four-seamer, sinker, and changeup cooked. That high heater upstairs defuddled their RHB-heavy lineup plenty (when it didn’t leave the yard twice), collecting four strikeouts, and I’ll keep considering him as a Toby moving forward. (View Game Card)
Andre Pallante (STL) @ NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT. This is what happens, Larry Andre, when you get your four-seamer inside to LHB. In fact, two of his three hits allowed were on four-seamers to LHB down/outer half. The other? Oh, that was just the juicest slider down the heart of the plate to Alvarez, who appropriately launched it over the fence. Anyway, does this mean we’re in on Pallante now? Nope. Waiiiiiiit. Sorry, the slider is back down to 86/87 mph and I can’t trust that he’ll command that four-seamer like this moving forward. The Padres and Hotlanta are two of his next three starts and that’s not for me. (View Game Card)
Brady Singer (CIN) @ SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.
Ayyyyy, he made it work! Finally. We really haven’t seen Singer give you an all-around good start (where’s my dub?!) and you can thank the passive Friars for letting his sinker live over the heart of the plate to their RHB for a lovely 38% CSW. Do not trust this. (View Game Card)
Chris Sale (ATL) @ CHW (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna make an outstanding infield play and not damage his ribs this time. Phew. He’s still hurling 97/98 mph and that’s unreal. (View Game Card)
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) @ KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 87 pitches.
That’s a King Cole for Gore, but I’m not sure many are celebrating. Gore threw some great heaters up and curveballs down, but far too many were hittable over the plate and the Royals took advantage. I should note: We saw two different curveballs here – one that had more sweeper movement (a few sliders could have been them as well), and the other his traditional big drop offering. I wonder if we see more of that. Anyway, it’s a better outing for Gore given the high CSW marks on the heater and hook + the slider doing legit work down-and-away to LHB, but it’s not the overwhelming start that gets me fully onboard again. It does seem like the step forward before a great outing, though. Take that with a grain of salt. (View Game Card)
Jared Jones (PIT) vs LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 75 pitches.
The damage was nearly worse, but it was stolen over the fence as Reynolds snatched an Ohtani shot from leaving the park. This was a day of overthrowing the heater too high + the curveball and changeup failing to help. At least the slider is still great, and his stuff is off the charts. Expect better…in time. In time? It’s Sacré Verde + Coors up next. Oh no. We’ll get through this. (View Game Card)
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) @ PIT (ND) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna finally allow another HR and look mortal. Thing is, this was glorious through six with just one ER and a 1.00 WHIP, but he just had to return in the seventh, for a standard Careful, Icarus affair. Maybe he could have avoided it if anything outside of fastballs and sweepers worked – only two of his eight curveballs returned strikes, and that was his most thrown pitch outside his one-two punch. I wonder if that will bite him more in the future. (View Game Card)
Michael King (SDP) vs CIN (ND) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 106 pitches.
Like Shohei, this was a Careful, Icarus, but to a lesser degree with a solo shot and single ending his night before he could get the third out. The precision I’ve loved from King in his prime moments had small flashes, but is still a struggle for the cross-body arm, and he’s become a true HIPSTER in my view. But the season marks of a 3.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 22% strikeout rate are great! Uhhhh, it’s a 6.45 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 13% strikeout rate across his last four. Wat. Yeah. Wat. YEAAAAH! Okay. At least he gets the Cardinals next, but you may have to make a highly difficult choice with the Dodgers and Hotlanta after. (View Game Card)
Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
Ehhhh, a Bailey Special is fine, especially with a dub, but let’s be real. We want Rodón to soar. He can’t do that until his three pitches all cook in a game and this wasn’t that. His changeup was putrid save for a few (44% strikes, lofted or spiked), and the slider wasn’t getting backfoot as he likes it. We keep pressing forward. (View Game Card)
George Kirby (SEA) @ BAL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 104 pitches.
There it is Nick! Ummmm, maybe? WHAT. Look, it was a VVPQS where he needed a 60% putaway rate to return those strikeouts (10 strikeouts on 13 whiffs is not the most believable mark, either), and the one pitch I believe is the most important for said strikeouts is his sweeper, which punched out one batter. Nevertheless, Kirby did locate the sweeper down-and-away to RHB far more in this one, and I’m down with that. Still a little weird with the sinker and four-seamer, too (why are we not going inside at all? WHY?!), and I’m not sold yet. I so want to be, too. (View Game Card)
Jack Perkins (ATH) vs MIL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
It sure says a lot about Vegas when this looks like a stud start. 89 pitches is the only useful piece of information given the stadium – they are letting him go and that adds value – and I’m going to move on. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) vs NYY (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 100 pitches.
Blegh. That’s half of his 3+ ER games of the season coming in his last two games, and after fanning at least five in all but one of his first eleven games, he’s now fanned just four in each of his last three. This one was a product of his changeup failing to confound any Yankee hitters, with just one CSW on twenty-seven thrown. That’s a 4% CSW and zero whiffs. Rouuuugh. Oddly enough, he was throwing over a tick harder, now sitting nearly 95 mph, and let’s be real, that’s kinda hot, especially after showcasing 92.3 last time out. This 94.8 mph is the fastest average velo on his four-seamer all year and…right. It was a bad game. I’m super intrigued and imagine the Yankees were on his changeup for whatever reason, making me handwave this and start him against the Brewers. It was also rainy in Cleveland. That too, but I don’t think that was the problem. (View Game Card)
Framber Valdez (DET) vs MIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 75 pitches.
Framber’s curveball has been the biggest factor in his success, so you can probably guess how well it did in this one. 31% strikes on sixteen thrown, y’all. He’s like Ray in I can’t tell you when it’ll return, but I absolutely expect it to happen. Maybe all he needs is his revenge game in Houston to get the blood flowing. (View Game Card)
Jake Bennett (BOS) @ TBR (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 73 pitches.
The damage came mostly from four hits on questionable pitches in the fifth, and he otherwise pitched admirably. The SWATCH life is real, and he would have returned zero walks if not forced to intentionally walk Caminero near the end of the fifth. I’d love to see more from his breaking pitches, though, with just one sweeper and one cutter featured against LHB across fourteen total pitches, which doesn’t inspire confidence. He’s not ready for your rosters. (View Game Card)
Max Scherzer (TOR) vs PHI (L) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.
It was an easy Still ILL for a pitcher we’re unsure we’ll want to pick up even when he’s well removed from the shelf. That said, it’s nice to see at least a 13% SwStr on all four pitches, with many excellent sliders down-and-away to RHB. Do more of that. (View Game Card)
David Peterson (NYM) vs STL (ND) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 63 pitches.
With the number of Wonka games he’s produced this year, I bet he sold a golden ticket. I’m not sure any of you went with Peterson here and if you did, I’m not sure why. Four shutout last time out! Please, you’re smarter than this. Now look at your bread, HAISTBMBWT?! (View Game Card)
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ MIA (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.
Oh no. I’ve been such a loud fan of Nelson that this one certainly stings. On one hand, it was truly two HRs that destroyed him, on the other, Nelson’s strikeout ability has cratered in his last five games, failing to eclipse three strikeouts. That’s terrible, Nick. The slider has fallen off the most with diminishing vert from 1-2″ upwards to 5-7″, which explains a whole lot. No wonder the pitch allowed one of those HRs and four hits on six balls in play, with 5/6 hard contact. Yeesh. With three straight games of that featuring worse movement and horrible CSW marks, I’m more out on Nelson. But the vert was so high! He was in domed Miami a nd throwing a little softer, while he didn’t spot it at the top of the zone routinely as we normally see. He’s just not in a good place and I’ll let you know when he gets back. This feels so sudden. Yeah, blame the glorious schedule of SFG, Rockie Road, @TEA, and MIA having me put on the blinders (with LAD last time out that was fine!). And look! The Angels! It could be okay, but I’d be awfully careful with the worse slide piece. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Bryan Woo vs. Kyle Bradish – Both guys are underperforming and you know how I feel about that.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Photos by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire, Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire, and Mockup Graphics/Unsplash | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
