Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Jacob Lopez (ATH) @ DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 103 pitches.
We saw Ryan Yarbrough sparkle on the mound to our surprise and Jacob Lopez looks to be The Fratty Pirate with extra velocity. He’s been on a run with more strikeouts than you’d expect from 91 mph southpaw, including Wednesday’s 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 103 pitches (W) performance against the Tigers and this could be more than a fluke.
It all comes down to command. Lopez has been a master of keeping both his slider and changeup low without fail, while keeping them away from their respective batters. The slider cooked LHB while landed for called strikes to RHB, returning a 44% CSW across 35% overall usage, recording three punchouts and churning 7/7 outs on balls in play in the process – no Koufax here, all contact was absurdly weak. The aforementioned changeup nibbled low and while it was a low 54% strike rate, batters had difficulty squaring it up, slapping weak contact for 5/5 outs + a strikeout. Look at that, 16 outs on sliders + changeups without allowing a hit.
The whole thing works with his cutter and four-seamer tempting batters upstairs. Lopez doesn’t give in with his heaters, instead landing the four-seamer up-and-away to RHB (often out of the zone) with the cutter sweeping back over in a game of chicken. Is this the four-seamer or cutter? Batters are dying to get a good swing on a 91 mph heater and his sub 50% zone rate with the pitch oils the machine. It’s an exploitation of Lopez’s 7.2 feet of extension, making the decision point later for hitters.
I did an extended breakdown of Lopez on Monday during my afternoon Livestream of The List, which you can watch for yourself here. It’s heavily command-focused and makes it feel like a Vargas Rule I’m down to chase with the Rays and Giants up next. The success is deserved, but he lacks the track record to make us confident it’ll hold throughout the year.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs BOS (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 105 pitches.
That curveball is on fire. 39% CSW, 30% usage, and 5/31 whiffs is a wonderful sight for a pitch he’s incorporated far more in his last few starts vs. the 10% usage overall for the year. The hook was saved mostly for RHB while the slider worked against the weak Red Sox offense away from Fenway, and timely four-seamers and changeups cooked up a trio of strikeouts while propelling the Gallows Pole. We have no choice but to start him against Atlanta now and hope this lasts. Kinda funny how I was out on Kikuchi thinking he would be good early, stumble, and not recover, when in reality it was the complete opposite. That’s not funny. That’s annoying. BE RIGHT MORE OFTEN. Hey, I’m trying over here!
Nick Pivetta (SDP) vs WSN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 90 pitches.
The Nationals got wise and sent some RHB to the plate here and Pivetta’s offerings to them were a bit suspect, but to LHB? Oh he trounced them. The four-seamer returned 51% CSW with a 44% chase rate while the curveball complemented it low for a 62% strike rate. I’m thrilled we’re still seeing successful Pivetta and we keep holding and hoping. Who knows, maybe this is the year he finally has an ERA under 4.00.
Max Fried (NYY) @ CIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 106 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Pretty dang cool to see Fried lean into the cutter, which has legit vertical drop separation from the four-seamer. We’re talking 34% usage against RHB with the four-seamer carrying nearly six inches extra vert and surprising batters for three strikeouts. Fun stuff. Oh, and the changeup is actually cooking now down-and-away from RHB. FINALLY.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna go perfect through six, walk two in the seventh, and allow a hit to lead off the eighth before getting the hook. I’m pretty sure he’s getting tired of being thought of not being the best pitcher on the planet, so he’s now sitting 98.4 mph on his heater. No more of this “I’ll sit 97 mph” attitude. Fun to see him feature surprise changeup to LHB, too, which returned three of those seven strikeouts. It’s a #3 pitch that is the #2 for nearly everyone else in baseball, that rascal.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. This wasn’t even a good four-seamer game with everything concentrated in the middle and only one or two nibbling the top of the zone. He’s throwing a new slider now at 88 mph that was…okay at 23% usage and maybe that’s all he needs with the four-seamer for LHB.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) @ STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 79 pitches.
We got 0/29 whiffs on Boyd’s slider and changeup and there’s your three strikeouts. We’ll take this all day, though, and seeing 94 mph four-seamer spotted upstairs with little effort is a great thing.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 74 pitches.
He sure feels like the real deal. The stuff is Top 5 in the majors and he continued to throw strikes without fail. 72% four-seamer strikes is incredible with a 68% overall and keep in mind that he walked his first batter of the game while slipping with his landing foot on the mound. The major question is how many innings he’ll go this year + we’re sure to see some days of poor command that upset us all, but hot dang, this is an obivous Top 25 SP moving forward (it’s just lack of track record y’all!) and my heart says he’s already Top 20, if not Top 15. Hooooo boy.
Sean Burke (CHW) vs ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
Oh snap, the curveball is ALIVE. The fastball IS ALIVE. Burke is…kinda back? He’s at 95.3 mph (up 1.4 ticks) with 18″ of vert and seven feet of extension with heaters mostly upstairs + a curveball that sported a whopping 48% CSW and 76% strikes of its own. Yeah, but what about that HR. Sure, that first inning blast was an 82 mph first pitch hanger to Naylor for both of Burke’s runs on the day, but the rest? Fantastic. Even the slider was digestible. Huh. I’m kinda happy it’s the Dodgers next so we can keep him on the wire and see what the skills are under the hood to consider grabbing him in deeper leagues – I’d still hesitate to do so in 12-teamers with the Jays up after.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) @ COL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 56 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a King Cole. Just 46% strikes on his four-seamer, which I would be totally fine with if it were misses upstairs. But alas, they were not. ONE DAY.
Colton Gordon (HOU) vs PHI (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 80 pitches.
Colton is another 91 mph southpaw rookie making an impact this year and he does it with four-seamer and sweepers nearly exclusively. I’m more skeptical of this lasting than Lopez, though Eno and I have talked about sweepers from LHP to RHB are more effective than sweepers from RHP to LHB. It’s a bit curious and mixed with two-plane four-seamer movement, there is some confusion at the plate. I still would hold off taking these chances outside of deeper leagues with @COL next. Maybe hosting Cleveland, though.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 62 pitches.
Seriously Ray?! Sixty-two pitches?! This had CGSHO written all over it. Sigh. Whatever, it’s productive, but he should be so much more. I thought we were done with this ridiculous capping of his starts. LET HIM COOK.
George Kirby (SEA) @ MIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 90 pitches.
This is hilarious. Kirby did the thing. He went absurdly high with heaters, absurdly low with sliders and had himself a productive game. It was the BSB with just three strikeouts and 0/33 slider whiffs. It’s kinda wild given the pitch has legit movement at 87 mph and he delicately spotted it right below the zone to LHB, but it didn’t work. Weird. I also LOVE that Kirby is throwing sinkers inside to RHB now, but 46% sinkers and 5% four-seamers to RHB feels like the wrong mix. Even split please so RHB don’t know which is which, k thx. This is a massive step forward for Kirby and I genuinely hope it holds.
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) @ SDP (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 103 pitches.
This was another start of Gore struggling to land his curveball, but they were effective when executed. The four-seamer was a touch off here and there, too, sure, and I think it’s a showcase of Gore as an arm that he can be off a bit and still produce. That slider is still killer to LHB, after all.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ HOU (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He was relentless jamming his sinker off the plate inside and down to the Astros and they obliged. It was beautiful. But stop walking guys. What’s that about.
Clay Holmes (NYM) vs ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 96 pitches.
That’s two straight walk-heavy games for The Adobe and you’re starting to get a little nervous. The kick change feel is eluding him, but he’s doing well with his slider and sweeper + the sinker is doing work in the zone. We’re okay.
Logan Webb (SFG) vs MIA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. His pitch separation is still absurdly good with some Canibal McSanchez action to LHB, though his sweeper feel was off and he reduced it to just 8% usage. This was the old days of changeup-city. We’re talking 40% usage and the Marlins fouled off 32% of them, making Webb work more than usual. Whatareyagonnado. Please don’t turn into a WHIP killer again…
Edward Cabrera (MIA) @ SFG (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
Sooooo Cabrera threw nearly double the number of sinkers over four-seamers. That’s great! He went 39% strikes on sinkers and 64% on four-seamers. That’s terrible! Thing is, his slider and curve were able to make up for it against RHB and his changeup was solid against LHB. I’m also happy to see him last into the sixth and 90 pitches to his name, but the fact remains: We don’t know what we’re going to get from ECab on a given night. He’ll get MIN, MIL, @BAL up next, making this a tempting play for deeper leagues while those in 12-teamers shouldn’t feel like they need to add him.
Richard Fitts (BOS) @ LAA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
Fitts has returned to the rotation now that the rehab assignments are all good and done and would you look at that. His heater sat 96/97 mph (formerly 95 mph!) with high location, catalyzing a huge 10/37 whiff performance. I wish there was more for me to get amped about, and yes, the slider and sweeper each added 1-2 inches of sweep, but I’m not a big fan of their command at the moment, while the curve is a lollipop over the plate in an attempt for a called strike. Thing is, it’s the Reds Carpet up next (does that apply in Fenway? I think so) and I’m down to give that a spin.
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs ATH (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 90 pitches.
A VPQS with seven strikeouts is not a total bust of a start unlike his previous pair and the curveball went 11/21 whiffs. I don’t believe Flaherty pitched poorly in his previous two games (my guess was tipping) and seeing the curveball earn all these whiffs showcases how the Athletics were aggressive on his heater, and rightfully so. that pitch was middle-middle a ton and yet only allowed a pair of hits with 13/39 called strikes. The slider is a bit to blame here with a low 45% strike rate and some untimely misses, but 19 whiffs with a 37% CSW should calm your fears. A great buy-low with the Nats and Cleveland ahead.
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs TBR (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.
Hmmmm, that’s a Dusty Donut with a VVPQS for Wacha. I’m surprised to see he has a 19% strikeout rate after this with a 1.22 WHIP and 3.33 ERA. That seems worse than how I perceive him, but then again, it’s not too far off from last year’s marks. Anyway, these strikeouts are a bit of a surprise with his slider returning 7/18 whiffs out of nowhere, though they were deserved. If Wacha can feature this precision on his slider to RHB moving forward, the strikeout rate is sure to rise above 20%. He’s a go for @TEA next.
Chase Dollander (COL) vs LAD (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 77 pitches.
It was the pouring rain and he should have ended this with six clean against the Dodgers. He was able to keep the heater upstairs effectively to LHB and I’m just going to stop right there. Yes, HAISTBMBWT?!, but the Dodgers. In Coors. In the rain. Let’s just not consider this one for the books, okay?
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs TOR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.
WE’RE BACK BAYBEEE. Uhhh, Nick. That’s a terrible line. Yeah, I know. But what was the thing I cared about most with Gavin? Cutter usage + fastball at 96/97 with seven feet of extension? YUP. The heater is back to its old ways…except that he couldn’t get the dang thing upstairs at all. A 59% strike rate with a paltry 42% clip for his sweeper has me all kinds of annoyed, while the 92 mph cutter wasn’t located absurdly well for whiffs. THAT SAID, I have waited three months to see Gavin featured 25-30% cutters for 70%+ strikes while featuring 96+ mph fastballs at 7+ feet of extension. It’s here. It’s FINALLY HERE. Suitman whispers into my ear. He gets the Cubs next?!?! Nooooooo. It’s too risky, I know. We need to see him do it. But hot dang, it’s RIGHT THERE.
Max Scherzer (TOR) @ CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
Hey, he’s back! It was a clear Still ILL but we should be happy to see 93+ mph (not 92) velocity and generally good command of his heater, curve, and changeup. Unfortunately, the pitch for Scherzer over the years has been his slider (or cutter, they’re the same pitch for the most part) and we saw 1/16 whiffs there. Womp womp. Don’t touch this with the Yankees up next, but take a look to see if the velocity holds and if he has those whiffs returning.
Brady Singer (CIN) vs NYY (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 103 pitches.
Hmmmm. This is a Dusty Donut with those nine strikeouts, and he slider whiffs finally returned with 7/24 on the day (28% SwStr rate). I’m not completely sold that he’s back to normal and I’d hold off in Fenway next. It was a much better located slider, though, even if it allowed a tank…
Paul Skenes (PIT) @ MIL (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 78 pitches.
Aces gonna embarrass himself in front of the new kid. I had a phenomenal time hosting this via livestream on Playback yesterday and Skenes was Singled Out while sitting slower than his opponent and a paltry 98.5 mph. Those are rookie numbers. Eno made a great point about how Skenes’ arsenal speaks more to a strikeout-per-inning type who can facilitate weak contact as he ages and the fastball velocity wanes, especially with the heater’s movement coming with unexpected drop, rather than rise. Ahhhh so that’s why it’s 1/32 four-seamer whiffs. Yup. Anyway, he’s still dope and makes us feel dope.
Brandon Young (BAL) vs TEX (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 61 pitches.
The Orioles wanted to give Sugano extra rest, leading to Young taking the pearl for the Orioles. He has a 93/94 mph four-seamer with 18″ of vert at a kinda steep arm angle that he can dot upstairs easily, which would be solid if he had a slew of secondaries to place underneath. LHB saw the splitter and curve, while a cutter appeared against the few RHB he saw. I don’t think that’s enough to keep a close eye on Young, but I can see it working out here and there when he’s stretched out more.
Zac Gallen (ARI) @ CHW (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 87 pitches.
Not even against the CrySox. You need to let it go. Sure, Gallen could find redemption in the second half and maybe a trade to a new team does it, but you just can’t let him weigh you down like this when there are so many streaming options each week.
Didier Fuentes (ATL) @ NYM (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 74 pitches.
Welcome to the big leagues. We saw over an inch less vert here at about 15″, but the 1.8 HAVAA at 95/96 mph is still present on the four-seamer…he just didn’t get it up nearly as often. The sweeper and curve are also works in progress that let him down constantly and that’s your ball game. No wonder it was just one strikeout. HAISTBMBWT?! There’s still a lot of promise to him and I hope they keep giving him a chance. Don’t rule out a far better game against the Angels if you want to stash Fuentes. Don’t start him there save for dire circumstances.
Erick Fedde (STL) vs CHC (L) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 78 pitches.
You can’t trust the Feddes against the Cubs. YOU KNOW THAT.
Game of the Day
Shota Imanaga vs. Andre Pallante – I don’t have high expectations for Pallante, but I’m thrilled to see Imanaga step back onto the bump.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Photos by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire and Sebastian Cyrman/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
