Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Casey Mize (DET) @ NYY (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 88 pitches.
I can’t be the only one shocked to see that on June 30th, Casey Mize has a 2.63 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a 27% strikeout rate across twelve starts. His journey has been atypical, with a questionable beginning to 2026 followed by a pair of IL stints and two suspect outings since his latest return before Monday’s 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 88 pitches (W) excellence with a King Cole against the Yankees, and we gotta chat. Is this here to stay?
I think it is. Kinda. Mostly. I’ve been focused on Mize’s slider development this season and I’m thrilled to see a 43% CSW with 71% strikes across 25% usage this year, with this outing replicating those marks. Sure, the whiffs aren’t spectacular, but that’s not its role – that’s for the splitter and four-seamer to deal with, and they looked great. Mize’s four-seamer is touching 20″ of vert at times at 93/94 mph, while the splitter, even with a low strike rate, returned 4/14 whiffs with a pair of punchouts. We even saw the sinker appear as a surprise pitch to both LHB and RHB (his sole hit was off the pitch, a strange one with 19″ vert and 13″ run at 90.7 mph), and there’s even a curveball he flipped over the plate for a called strike here and there. It’s a full package.
Not everything is studly, of course. While everything was fine and lovely here, Mize’s four-seamer is assuredly getting punished when left over the plate in the future, and the splitter’s 33% O-Swing needs to be a bit better in the future when LHB get used to the slider spinning into the zone for called strikes. And that’s okay – Mize doesn’t have to be an ace, he just needs to be a Holly.
If he’s still out there after two poor outings and an IL stint, you better run and grab him now. It’s @TEX, PHI, @LAA ahead and with 88 pitches under his belt, he’s good to go moving forward. The improved slider and hype are real. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Nick Lodolo (CIN) @ MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 96 pitches.
Those walks are a product of terrible curveballs and wild upstairs four-seamers, but the change and sinker are still strong and steering the ship. I’m just glad he’s okay and we can keep starting him. (View Game Card)
Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ HOU (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
You can’t be a HIPSTER if you don’t give us a reason to hold. I gotta say, it’s pretty wild to see just one game below six frames and an even 4/4 split of 6.0 and 7.0 IP outings across Zebby’s nine start this year. With just two blowups! Yeah, that’s a good point. Am I too low on Zebby? Nah, the reason he’s going deep into games is from the kindness of Koufax, who has allowed this worse-stuff version of Matthews (but better ICR, albeit still around 40%) and lowered his BABIP one hundred points from .360 to .259, with a near 80% LOB rate. Batters aren’t whiffing more, they are just making earlier contact and not finding grass, allowing him to travel deep into games often. Sometimes it’s as simple as visiting the HOTEL to get your answers. It doesn’t mean the ceiling isn’t there and worthy of some gambling; just take that into account, and definitely do not start him against the Yankees. (View Game Card)
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs SFG (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
The Vargas Rule lives on for this premium Toby. I mean, it was the Giants. I mean, it was ONE STRIKEOUT. HAISTBMBWT?! He gets the Brewers next and let’s hope his low 40% weak contact doesn’t stick around. It’s not wise to bank on Koufax getting cozy on the couch. (View Game Card)
Trey Yesavage (TOR) vs NYM (W) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
Whoaaaa zero walks?! It’s incredibly surprising when you catch that Yesavage threw 45 splitters + sliders for just 47% strikes combined. Oh wow. His heater didn’t lay low, but it was awesome. He jammed both LHB and RHB with the pitch incessantly and if that’s a skill he can actually replicate, I’m a believer. It’s a lot harder to go up-and-in at the rate he did yesterday than just generally living down in the zone, which makes me skeptical this is a new Yesavage we’ll see often, but he deserved success here. In fact, if he had a better slider and splitter, he’d have a whole more strikeouts, too – Yesavage held a paltry 13% putaway rate across all his pitches in this one. (View Game Card)
Ryan Johnson (LAA) @ SEA (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 81 pitches.
Another productive start, eh? Alright, you get the Gold Star even after you had a strikeout explosion last time out. He’s getting good pitch separation with low splitters and sinkers vs. high cutters, but it’s not special enough for me to truly dig into. Those who added him for the two step are looking pretty savvy right now (i.e. Not me) with a start hosting the RHP-hating Sawx on Sunday, and I don’t blame anyone in 12-teamers for chasing that on a desperate Sunday. The floor is still terrible, though. (View Game Card)
George Kirby (SEA) vs LAA (W) – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
THANK YOU. Oh boy this was so much better. Kirby actually did two major things in this one that I’ve waited ages for: He got his sweeper down and out of the zone (42% zone rate), where it induced a ton of chases (52% O-Swing!) for 7/36 whiffs. He also threw his sinker on the inner half to RHB and guess what? THEY RETURNED OUTS. And two hits. Those were middle, not inside third, and they came from his first two batters of the game, alright? I believe those sinkers opened up the outer third for the sweeper and I LOVE IT. He then went up with the heater, under the zone with curves for four whiffs (it was awesome), and we even saw changeups down and middle to RHB for a trio of whiffs. He’s here, y’all, and there’s even more polish to add if he wants to (more inside sinkers, higher four-seamers). And now he gets the Marlins and Giants?! LET’S DO THIS. (View Game Card)
Shane Baz (BAL) vs CHW (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 109 pitches.
Oh hey! The BSB to LHB with high heaters and low curveballs! Why can’t you do that against RHB, too? Might help with those three walks you threw to RHB, just saying. This is a better commanding Baz and I’m a little more inclined to go after this version against the Cubs, but I don’t feel like I have to, you know? He’s had just two starts all year with a 1.00 WHIP or lower. Two! (View Game Card)
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs SDP (ND) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.
The man was Singled Out, though just 2/35 whiffs on his four-seamer leaves a bit to be desired. The splitter rocked against RHB for three strikeouts and 9/31 whiffs, except for the times it didn’t rock at all. Wait, what. My bad. The splitter was hung plenty and smacked for hits five times on those mistakes (a sixth time on a solid one under the zone, even if it could have been lower at 1-2), and I hope he can iron that out in the future. It’s how this was a nine-hit, four-strikeout game and not the reverse. (View Game Card)
Sean Manaea (NYM) @ TOR (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 90 pitches.
We’ll take this from Manaea. It’s not a start that makes me more encouraged about the future, though. He’s down to 90/91 mph on four-seamers and I’m not in love with his sweeper at the moment. Nice to see some cutters in the mix to RHB, but this isn’t an overwhelming arm at the moment. With @ATL next, I’d try something else in 12-teamers. (View Game Card)
Sean Burke (CHW) @ BAL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 89 pitches.
Eight strikeouts, eh? Let’s keep it rolling fella! That’s a 30% clip across his last seven games with a 14% SwStr in that time, though my biggest concern has been his curveball to LHB and slider to RHB, which weren’t quelled by this one (1/20 curveball whiffs with a 50% strike rate to LHB + an erratic slider to RHB). Fortunately, the four-seamer is still cooking and it’s the Guardians up next. Like at a crosswalk with a Mountain Dew in front of your face, that’s a green light. (View Game Card)
Griffin Canning (SDP) @ CHC (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 75 pitches.
His movement was worse across the board and I’m not seeing a reason to trust him, let alone against the Dodgers. Yeeeesh. (View Game Card)
Chris Paddack (TEX) @ CLE (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 68 pitches.
This was a rainy day against a poor offense. Does that cancel things out? I don’t know…? He’s likely not getting pushed a ton more in the future and you can ignore Paddack. I already was until you brought him up. WELL FINE. (View Game Card)
Ryan Weathers (NYY) vs DET (L) – 1.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 55 pitches.
I covered this for today’s YouTube pitcher breakdown and the short of it: He got burned by the defense a bit, had a few unlucky balls in play, and had a fantastic changeup he could have leaned on slightly more (and less on one pitch). Don’t worry about this one and I’m still sending him out there. Yes, if he had a better feel for the slider and/or fastballs, it could have gone better, but this really wasn’t the disaster it may seem to be. (View Game Card)
Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
A PQS against the #1 offense against LHP is nothing to be ashamed of, especially considering one ER fewer and that’s a stud outing. Stupid Wood solo shot at 2-0 to start the game. We love this. (View Game Card)
Eric Lauer (LAD) @ ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.
Wow. A VVPQS with a dub and just two strikeouts. It really is that feeling of “join the Dodgers and we’ll make your blegh just a little more bearable.” He’s a 15-team option for the Padres up next in what could be the first two-step of the Dodgers season. (View Game Card)
Robert Gasser (MIL) vs CIN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
Not terrible and almost a strong performance before a two-run HR from Elly in the fifth on a solid up-and-in fastball. Gasser’s lack of changeup feel is making me a little hesitant moving forward, and his overall command here was good – four-seamers up, sweepers down(ish), and cutters filling the zone to LHB – but not stellar for a pitcher without overwhelming stuff. A date @ARI is decent for those looking to stream on Sunday, but if you’re not doing that, I wouldn’t hold. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) vs TEX (L) – 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 83 pitches.
A true Careful, Icarus with a run in the sixth and two in the seventh. His SWATCH lifestyle was on-point against RHB until those final two frames, where he didn’t avoid the zone enough with both heater and changeup and the Rangers caught on. I also hate seeing Messick fall back down just under 94 mph, making it a three-start trend of 96 –> 95 –> 94 mph four-seamers. Welp, still love the fella. Don’t worry about the velo. (View Game Card)
Peter Lambert (HOU) vs MIN (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 100 pitches.
Blegh. He’s a Toby and he almost got away with a day of poor command but a two-run shot in the sixth ruined a potential night of two runs in six frames. I should note, he also allowed just four baserunners in five frames prior. Careful, Icarus. You shouldn’t feel the need to hold with the Nationals up next. (View Game Card)
Tyler Mahle (SFG) @ ARI (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.
Yup, that’s the Mahle I wish he wasn’t. He didn’t even pitch that poorly – he was in his general areas, sat 93 mph, and earned a fair number of whiffs on splitters and sliders – but he needs to be polished with his middling arsenal. Wait for it to appear before adding. (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 97 pitches.
Noooo, you were so close to Coronation Day! Fine, it was three HRs in this one (two mistake pitches, FWIW) and it’s a Dusty Donut as the ERA is the only poor mark. Go dominate the Nationals and you’re still golden. (View Game Card)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ COL (W) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 96 pitches.
Coors is undefeated. Now the second stage of the “The Green Mile” is ahead as Sandy heads to Sacré Verde. I like that a little more for Sandy, but it’s still a bench for me. (View Game Card)
Gage Jump (ATH) vs LAD (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.
Womp womp. I was really hoping this would be a start that would make all of us lean forward in our chair, but Jump did what any normal pitcher would do against the Dodgers in Sacré Verde – put up a dud. The good news? Strikes are still here on the slider and four-seamer. Now you take him off your bench and slot him in for the Marlins. (View Game Card)
Sean Sullivan (COL) vs MIA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 82 pitches.
It’s Coors, even against Miami. And even if it weren’t in Coors… (View Game Card)
Miles Mikolas (WSN) @ BOS (L) – 7.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 97 pitches.
Yeaaaaah. It’s just the fourth time all year where Mikolas tossed at least six frames, and props to him for throwing six innings of 2 ER ball after getting bamboozled in the first via two blasts to left. That’s all I got. (View Game Card)
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs PIT (L) – 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 86 pitches.
Huh. 23 whiffs for a Gallows Pole and this is what we get? He earned nine whiffs in the fourth frame alone. Well, I wish it were ten and he could take back that horrible 2-1 curveball to Esmerlyn Valdez for a two-run shot. His fifth was nothing like the previous four frames where he collected 19 whiffs, nay, it was disaster city with his sinker and slider failing to find their spots, with three sinkers laced for hits, including a HR on a 3-1 meatball to Triolo. Sigh. 91/92 fastballs (not 93/94) and poor fastball command has done him in once again. Those first four frames, though, HR included…I’ll take that all day. Hopefully he can feature them all day in Kansas City up next. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Nolan McLean vs. Kevin Gausman – Two arms who we should have confidence in.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
