Quick note: I apologize for the delay this morning. I woke up feeling unwell and it cascaded into a later morning than usual. Maybe I was just allergic to the disappointing lines from Giolito, Abbott, Harrison, SGL, Rocker, Pivetta, and Soriano. How dare they.
Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs BAL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 89 pitches.
I was concerned we wouldn’t see Emerson Hancock take a large enough step this season to properly wield his arsenal but after allowing just 7 ER across his last four games including Wednesday night’s 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 89 pitches (ND) against the Orioles @TEA, you may wonder if we have a streamable Toby on our hands.
Hancock faced a LHB-heavy lineup, allowing his changeup to shine. It’s his best offering and…wait. Just 41% strikes?! Oh. He went high four-seamers and sinkers just under it, tunneling them together but with 6.0 feet of extension. That sinker has elite 19-20″ of horizontal movement and a fair amount of drop, but the four-seamer is below average across the board if not for its 95 mph velocity. What about the slider? He saved it for two strikes and earned a trio of punchouts + two outs (5/10 outs is wild!) and I’ll hand wave the four that were terrible. Not an overwhelming pitch and worked better as a surprise pitch than anything.
Without a dominant changeup or slider, I can’t trust this. Emerson’s sinker and four-seamer earned the strikes needed to cover for the changeup and I don’t trust that moving forward, which would be the Diamondbacks (nope)…or Logan Gilbert who may be returning in place of Hancock’s next outing. Even if Hancock were to stick for another handful of outings, he’s not polished enough to demand success.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Merrill Kelly (ARI) @ ATL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 98 pitches.
Stop worrying and learn to love the Kelly. His changeup and cutter combo is working well while the four-seamer is shocking us all with 6/15 whiffs – a product of playing off the cutter and featuring an overall low 29% fastball usage (unless you call the 91 mph cutter a fastball, sitting less than a tick under the sinker/four-seamer. That’s pretty fair). Keep this one going please, k thx.
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) vs CHC (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
Mmmmm that’s the good stuff. It was another day of four-seamer dominance to RHB as he kept the pitch in the top half of the zone with ease and paired it with a ton of secondaries down. This is standard BSB affair and to do so with 60%+ strikes on everything is sublime. The slider has been a phenomenal pitch to LHB as well, continuing its 60%+ usage and dominating for 40% CSW. Are we at the point that we can buy into Gore actually being this guy now? It is interesting to see this success with just 4/55 whiffs on the fastball, due to an inch less vert + a small drop in velo that propelled a 30%+ foul ball rate that likely took away from whiffs. Yes, this could have been better.
Kyle Freeland (COL) @ MIA (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
It’s pretty awesome to see Freeland succeed in games like these. It had the makings of potential on paper (LHP vs. MIA, away from Coors where his four-seamer holds 17″ of vert) and I just couldn’t get myself to do it. Welp, that was fun.
Griffin Canning (NYM) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 99 pitches.
Here’s the thing. The rain messed up Canning’s last start, sure, but it felt right. It was an interruption to the Vargas Rule and here were the Dodgers, surely he couldn’t take them down like he did the Sneks, Cubs, and Yankees, right? That was a thing of the past! And yet, here he was, avoiding the heart of the plate with his four-seamer, nailing changeups to both LHB and RHB, while the slider…well, that’s the interesting one. He hasn’t gone Dancing With The Disco a ton this year, but that was the case against RHB and it worked. He flipped them over the plate for outs and called strikes, while getting them down later in counts, returning 9/37 whiffs, 38% CSW, and 73% strike rate. It’s incredible. I’ve been so wrong on Canning this year and huge props to him proving he can locate better than last year and do so consistently. Enjoy the Nationals up next and back up The List into the Top 50 you go.
Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) @ NYY (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 92 pitches.
Whoa, this actually worked out? Ortiz was able to hurl 65% strikes – a rarity for him! – as he mostly went three pitch via four-seamer, sinker, and slider. He got away with a bit over the plate on the latter two, while the four-seamer impressed me by landing inside to both sides of the plate. Five strikeouts came off that 37% usage slider as well and I have to wonder if there’s something real happening. He gets the Reds Carpet next and if he can find the zone 55% of the time like he did here, that is sure to go well. Huh.
Mike Burrows (PIT) vs HOU (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 70 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! That’s a Gold Star as I didn’t expect dominance from a 6/19 whiff changeup to LHB and solid sliders (mostly) away to RHB. I think he got a bit fortunate along the night and I still question his heater a ton, but at least we’re seeing some promise from Burrows as he fights to stave off Bubba Chandler. No, I wouldn’t go for this against the Marlins, especially when he’s getting pulled at just 70 pitches.
DL Hall (MIL) @ CIN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 48 pitches.
We knew Hall would be limited in an opener role for Quinn Priester, who absolutely killed it: 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks, 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches. Yes, some Blame it on the Reds without Elly, though his two-pitch approach of sinker/slider was located as well as I’ve seen. So is he worth a pickup? Sadly, no. It’s Atlanta + Cubs next and it’s tough to discern if this feel will stick – we haven’t seen it before after all.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs ARI (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 10 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. No changeups, no problem. This is fun.
José Berríos (TOR) vs PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
You rascal. The sinker allowed a solo shot but otherwise did a great job of finding outs while the four-seamer boasted a massive 93% strike rate with 5/15 whiffs, if you can believe it. No, there isn’t another magical happening with Berríos that suddenly changes who he is. It’s a man more in rhythm than usual and making fewer mistakes over the plate. It’s why he’s The Great Undulator.
Mick Abel (PHI) @ TOR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 78 pitches.
It shouldn’t be a surprise to see Abel’s 97+ mph four-seamer drop down to a mortal 95 mph in his second outing (MLB debuts, y’all) and the curve + slider were underwhelming with just 1/22 whiffs. However, the four-seamer and sinker command was great. Heaters stayed upstairs to both RHB and LHB, while the sinker effectively sat below it to RHB. With the drop in velocity across the board, his curve added three inches of drop and four inches of bend, granting larger separation to the slider (or maybe clearer classification), though he really struggled to get the thing down where he wanted it. That’s the real area of improvement and I hope we get that in time…if he gets another start. Nola could come back next week, bumping out Abel, or we see Abel take a stab against the Cubs. I’d put him in the Questionable Start tier for that one and hope that we get more from his breakers and dream of seeing more than one kick-change to help against LHB.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 77 pitches.
We’ll take that Win all day, though I wasn’t impressed with this one. Zebby’s slider was hit-or-miss, the changeup (hey! There it is!) was floated over the plate to LHB, and the cutter did not look sharp. I still like the heater, but it’s not elite at 95/96 mph and average shape, extension, and attack angle. This is all…fine. At least it’s the Rangers next and he’s throwing strikes, which makes it a worthy play. I want to see a little more juice next time out. That electricity that makes us feel no one can touch him.
Justin Sterner (ATH) vs MIN (L) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 15 pitches.
Springs came in after the opener failed and it would have been a slightly better PQS in normal circumstances. This a sunshine and rainbow sprinkles Dusty Donut with 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 106 pitches as he incessantly tossed changeups over the plate and dared the Twins to do something about it. 9/34 whiffs with two hits was the result and he may be able to stave off the Angels as a changeup-focused southpaw. At least it’s not in Sacré Verde.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) @ WSN (L) – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 95 pitches.
The changeup is dope, the four-seamer is churning outs and the slider is kinda back?! It was saved for LHB and not spotted down-and-away as we want to see, but 4/17 whiffs with outs in play is a cool sight to see. I’d be wary against the Nats to buy into a slider renaissance, but small steps n all. I think I’m going for it against the Phillies.
Cade Povich (BAL) @ SEA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 86 pitches.
Yoooo, that’s the BSB! It was mostly RHB, but Povich had phenomenal feel for his four-seamer and curve, going upstairs for 66% strikes and zero hits on the fastball + curves dancing down and in town. There were some hits he wants back, definitely, but this is fantastic. I wish there was more from the supporting cast, though. He doesn’t have a great attack against LHB with his sweeper and the changeup is still a work in progress. I don’t love the schedule of Tigers + Angels + Yankees ahead, either, so I’ll say he’s a 15-teamer play and not the best 12-teamer option for now. Please show this command consistently.
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) vs NYM (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 90 pitches.
Whoa, a Gallows Pole for Gonsolin?! With the four-seamer returning the most of any pitch at 7/35 whiffs?! What is this world. It’s one where the splitter and curve killed it against LHB, setting up high heaters better than usual. Ahhhh. Aren’t I supposed to get a Win out of this too? Not when Canning pitches without rain. Fair. You can try this against the Padres, though you really shouldn’t bank on 39% CSW on the splitter and a whopping 44% clip for the curve. That’s just…not normal for Gonsolin. Wait, what about the slider? Oh right! The pitch that actually failed with a longball across just nine thrown! What is it with these poor sliders across the league these days?
Cal Quantrill (MIA) vs COL (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 86 pitches.
This is as mid of a “productive” start as you’ll find. A 3.60 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and just two strikeouts without a dub. This was a good day. Okay.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs CLE (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
Schmidt threw 70% strikes overall (!) and did everything he could with his cutter (a little less movement than usual), curve, and sweeper to attack the LHB-heavy Guardians and if not for a frustrating first with all three runs including a three-run shot, Schmidt would have made managers pump their fists. All good here.
Shane Baz (TBR) vs TEX (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.
A first pitch outside changeup for a two-run shot, followed by an actually outside changeup (single) and blegh 2-2 curve over the plate (double) led to all three runs in the fifth. Meanwhile, the four-seamer absolutely cooked at 38% CSW and 80% strikes for 8/40 whiffs and I still love this. I’m a little surprised to see just two curves to LHB while the changeup went just 47% strikes and 3/19 whiffs, but at least the slider didn’t mess things up eh? 3/4 strikes without a hit! I’m a little afraid of Fenway these days and feel as though we can get greedy and wait one more week to pick him up off the wire, but I see a legit pitcher here. Just figure out that changeup or another #3 pitch…
Ryan Gusto (HOU) @ PIT (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 83 pitches.
I don’t quite get the sinker approach vs. RHB, but the real problem was the cutter over the plate and low four-seamer + curve strikes. Now it’s the White Sox and that could work, but do you really want to risk it? I don’t.
Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET) @ CHW (ND) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 70 pitches.
This was the Still ILL and it made the most sense not to let him loose, even if this was the White Sox and all my excitement for SGL. I have good news and bad news. The good: He’s at 7.4 feet of extension (99th percentile) with a filthy changeup and sat 92+ mph on his sinker (not the 90/91 of his final rehab start). The bad news: His sinker had 10″ less drop with poor movement overall + his slider lost four inches of drop and sweep at one tick slower. I wonder if it’s an arm angle thing (higher 3″) that affects Seam-Shifted Wake or if it’s a grip thing or I don’t know. That said, the extension + changeup + well spotted slider is still worthwhile and I’m holding. Let’s hope we get something a little different.
Jared Shuster (CHW) vs DET (ND) – 1.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 32 pitches.
He (poorly) opened for 3.2 IP and 0 ER of Mike Vasil. No, he’s not someone to pickup and let’s move on.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs MIL (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 100 pitches.
He earned a King Cole rooted in 23% called strikes, but the pitches we normally see find outs instead found grass. In fact, you could argue he threw too many strikes in this one, allowing batters to be more comfortable in the box than usual as every pitch returned a 65%+ strike rate. I hate that concept, but I can’t ignore that the blowup comes during the one time Abbott actually throws strikes. We keep going against the Guardians next.
Nick Pivetta (SDP) @ SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 82 pitches.
This has Careful, Icarus all over it. He’d allowed just one run before he hung a sweeper for a two-run shot with two outs in the sixth, then allowed a walk and 0-2 single before getting pulled. I dig the curve and heater to LHB and mix of sinkers to RHB, with a few signs of something else possibly brewing that I won’t dive into yet as it could just be an experiment that doesn’t survive. He’ll need to tweak something as the weather heats up to keep pace in front of his HR-plagued history and it’s suddenly a terrifying moment with the Dodgers and Sneks up next. We hold and hope.
Kyle Harrison (SFG) vs SDP (ND) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 87 pitches.
Noooooo. This was different. We saw 1.6 HAVAA (not 1.8/1.9) and worse command on the four-seamer that resulted in a ton of middle-middle and low heaters, resulting in just 6/63 whiffs. That’s not it. The curve was lollipopped to LHB as well and went just 14% CSW across 21 thrown, and this feels like the end of the line for Harrison. What a swing of emotions – if Harrison killed it here, I could see a scenario where Harrison fights his way into the rotation. Now he’s clearly the one going either back to the pen or the minors (to keep him stretched out). Welp, it was a fun ride. Please make the tweaks for the four-seamer down there, you’re so close.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ TBR (L) – 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 66 pitches.
Oh so we’re throwing 92 mph cutters now? Because that thing is disgusting. 11/32 whiffs on the pitch with a 41% CSW and while it was crushed twice, he should continue throwing this nearly 50% of the time. The concern I have is with everything else. The sinker is…fine, but not spotted nearly as well as the cutter, and he threw four other total pitches with two changeups, one curve, and one fastball. If he covered first properly or he had a little better luck in that third frame, this could have been a relatively clean game of dominance. I sure hope the Rangers allow him to stick in the rotation with that stupid filthy cutter and if he does, it’ll be the Twins + White Sox next. His limited pitch count and sample size of one for having a dope cutter he can locate has me holding off rostering him for now, even if Eovaldi doesn’t take his spot.
José Soriano (LAA) @ BOS (ND) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 99 pitches.
Yikes. The sinker was hit over the plate, the curve wasn’t reliable, and that’s about all there is to this. I don’t think you need to hold on, y’all.
Lucas Giolito (BOS) vs LAA (ND) – 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 43 pitches.
Oh no. Oh no no no no. Let’s review how this was everything I did not expect Giolito to be in this one. 1) His fastball could not be located. 2) His changeup was either good or horrific. 3) His cutter a huge miss or actually kinda great and wasn’t left over the plate. He’s been up-and-down across his month back from internal-brace surgery, though the stuff itself isn’t the problem. It’s his feel for working with each of his offerings. It’s the thing I’ve been blind to as I’ve assessed Giolito and it’s the hardest to discern. On one hand, we’ve seen guys like Ray and Rasmussen find their feel across the season and Giolito could be the same. On the other, he’s very clearly a minefield and potential disaster arm at the moment with a ton of risk with each start (even if this was the RHB-heavy Angels that forces more from Giolito’s worst pitch (the new slider) with a hot Neto and Trout in Fenway). I still believe that across the rest of the season, Giolito smooths out these bumps and becomes the Holly I expected him to be – there’s history of far better command than this – which does make him a worthwhile hold for the longhaul. HOWEVER, that doesn’t mean it’s worth risking in the short term. He’ll get the Rays + @TEA + @SFG up next and despite the understanding that Giolito was slightly unlucky and he was bamboozled and it’s highly unlikely to bad like this next time out, I’m okay placing him on the wire where no one will touch him. I wonder what we’ll get against the Rays.
Game of the Day
Cole Ragans vs. Matthew Liberatore – PEW PEW PEW.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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