Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches.
Is this it? The start that launches the breakout campaign of Edward Cabrera? It was a glorious performance against the Twins on Tuesday night 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 93 pitches (W) and there’s a lot to unpack here. In short, maybe.
There has been a facet of Cabrera’s game that has shown promise without enough time in the spotlight: The slider. It turned into his most trusted weapon against RHB, leading his attack of 80% secondaries (just 10 fastballs thrown to RHB!) for 40% CSW, while it continued to aid against LHB with the curve as a sidekick to the sinker/change approach. This is a standard gyro slider, but at 88 mph vs. the 95 mph of his changeup and 97 mph of his sinker, batters aren’t quite sure what to do with it.
His curve helps as well, at 84/85 mph. It wasn’t the greatest whiff pitch, but it stunned many batters with legit two-plane movement and earned half of his strikeouts as it froze RHB. Love that.
Thing is, the real hero is the changeup that lays a reliable foundation. A 74% strike rate with 18-19″ of run at a massive 95 mph can be thought of as a fantastic sinker, and it’s great to see a strong feel for the pitch. The four-seamer has been shelved with just 5% overall usage, the sinker changes things a bit to LHB, and the changeup does the rest. I love it.
You know, I could have just written “He threw 20% fastballs and earned a lot of strikes with trust in his changeups and sliders.” That’s the takeaway. Will it stick? Hopefully. We’ve seen him throw more strikes with these pitches this season and display a lack of faith in his four-seamer previously. At the very least, the Marlins are letting him fly and with the Brewers next, you should too. It’s about dang time, Ed.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Andre Pallante (STL) @ PIT (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
Wow. Across four-seamers, sliders, and sinkers, Pallante allowed 0/80 hits. Yep, one of Andre’s fourteen curveballs was the sole blemish on this one, which I completely understand given his struggles to earn strikes with sliders and four-seamers to RHB. Wait, you understand it was just one hit?! What? No. Absolutely not that. He’ll get the Nationals next and given his success against LHB here, that may work out just fine for those who are okay chasing ratios over strikeouts.
Grant Holmes (ATL) vs LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 27 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 106 pitches.
Ohhhhh BABY. That’s a Golden Goal for REB and I’m not too shocked he killed it against the RHB-heavy Angels crew. In fact, two of his three hits came off the five PAs against LHB, with just 1/19 hits to RHB. That’s baseball, Suzyn. The whiffs were all sliders all the time with 16/43 to RHB and not a single wasted one. That’s right, 0% “NC rate” (non-competitive). Get used to me talking about NC%, y’all. I’m kinda shocked we don’t talk about how often pitchers throw non-competitive pitches more often, as they are the toxins of the outing. The auto-balls that ruin efficiency and always create situations for pitchers. If you reduce those on your best pitch, well, there’s your ball game. We’re still working on the article to properly announce it and will have leaderboards in the near future, but get used to be talking about it here. I’m still getting a sense of what’s stellar and what’s terrible for each pitch. ANYWAY, this was really just the slider against a RHB-heavy team and there’s not much more to it. The curve/cutter/four-seamer did enough to not be horrendous and get out of the way, like the 77% strike rate on four-seamers to RHB. Well done fella.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) @ ATL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 87 pitches.
Hot dang, that’s fun. He had few issues with LHB thanks to the changeup + four-seamer combo killing it. LHB were a bit of a grind, but he got to the finish line despite some hard contact and that’s just how Koufax works. I’d be careful against the Jays and Sneks up next.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. That was a weird one last week and it’s pretty awesome to see Skenes feature zero non-competitive pitches to RHB. The four-seamer needed a bit more help against LHB, though, and I’m surprised the splinker wasn’t featured more than six times. It’s so dang good, Skenes, what are ya doing?!
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. No, the heater isn’t upstairs. Yes, it’s still working just fine and despite a few spiked splitters, he came through as you expected. I appreciate you, double inquisitor. Why why?
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs SFG (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 101 pitches.
YOU’RE WELCOME. Wow. The week I finally lower Gallen to the ends of The List – we just couldn’t let our ratios continue to crumble – Gallen whips up an absurd outing. Thing is, there’s a bit of Blame it on the Giants, the four-seamer returning a monster game of 29% called strikes, and his curve dominating down low to both sides of the plate. It did look like classic Gallen from those two, though the rest of the arsenal didn’t do a whole lot, save for some fun cutters to LHB. It could be the feel that we’ve been waiting for and now he gets the Royals. It could also very well be a Dennis, and you’ve been warned.
Joe Ryan (MIN) @ MIA (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Few whiffs on the heater here, with its success a touch lower than usual to RHB despite fantastic spots upstairs. They hit them in play with little authority and we’ll take that all day. He’s still figuring out the LHB approach, though the tighter slider is looking like a solid option, even though he got away with some over the heart of the plate. Meanwhile, the splitter was just 1/10 strikes against LHB. What was the strike? Oh you know, a solo shot for the only run of the game. I can’t help but wonder how absurd he would be if he had a legit set of secondaries.
Richard Fitts (BOS) vs CIN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 38 pitches.
The rain ruined what was looking like a fun one. Fitts was sitting 2-3 ticks up at 97/98 mph like he was in the spring with extra movement on his slider. Yeah, this is rad and I’m really sad the game was suspended until later today. The good news: He gets Rockie Road up next. You gotta roll with that.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.
We saw some hung changeups to RHB and zero whiffs to LHB, but it all just…worked out. He avoided the heart of the plate to LHB and did enough with heater, change, curve, and 2/7 strikes on the slider. Lots of non-competitive sliders there + a whole lot with his four-seamer too far up or wide of the zone. We’re talking 26% “NC rate” across 29 heaters to RHB, which is one of the higher marks I’ve seen thus far. Confused? Read the Grant Holmes blurb. We’ll get there.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Very strange to see 0/13 slider whiffs to RHB, which is his own fault for failing to locate the pitch as he normally does. You know, we haven’t seen a whole lot of deGrom being his peak self this year. There’s another level.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) @ TBR (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 96 pitches.
The changeup killed it to RHB and the slider got outs to LHB, but that break allowed a solo shot to Morel and the four-seamer struggled to both (30% “NC rate” to RHB + a longball to B. Lowe) as this wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows. The changeup is still the changeup, at least, and you’re generally okay with this one. I’m not interested given the struggles of non-slowballs.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs NYY (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches.
Oh cool, we’re back to a few whiffs on the splitter with questionable feel, but legit four-seamer command. WE NEED BOTH, GAUSMAN. But hey, two ER right? Right?
Brady Singer (CIN) @ BOS (ND) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 56 pitches.
His sinker wasn’t well spotted and it got hit around. Singer isn’t meant to succeed in Fenway and we may have been saved by the rain cutting this one short. He’ll get the Marlins + Rockie Road before the ASB and you should definitely get on board with that.
Shane Baz (TBR) vs ATH (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 90 pitches.
Hahahahaha. HAHAHAHA. Wait. The cutter wasn’t that great. It was actually pretty terrible. 3/16 hits with a 50% strike rate and 0% CSW. That thing was either hittable or spat on outside the zone (albeit, low “NC rate”), leading to a longball. Nay, this was a game of his four-seamer crushing for 14/39 whiffs and locating beautifully upstairs to RHB and only a HR pitch that he really wants back. The curve was mostly doing what we wanted down-and-away to RHB, too, and the fact that he killed it even without the cutter working well is a great sign. He threw a slider and changeup, too. Yeaaaaah, that slowball ain’t great to LHB, but worked well enough, and why OH WHY is that slider still around? I think they’re misclassified cutters given a minimal difference in movement, FWIW. Here’s to Baz boasting a legit heater and curve + developing cutter to keep this afloat. And no more tipping. That too. He ain’t a server anymore.
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) @ SEA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
Mmm. Yep. Uh huh. I recognize some of these pitches (as good). You shouldn’t be chasing Lorenzen, just look at this one. It was a great place to pitch and he still couldn’t squeak out five frames. Just don’t.
Brandon Young (BAL) @ TEX (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 71 pitches.
He stepped in for an injured Charlie Morton and we didn’t expect much at all. Annnnd yep. We don’t touch this.
Hayden Birdsong (SFG) @ ARI (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 79 pitches.
That’s two starts now of chaos with a 47% strike rate and 18% “NC rate” on Birdsong’s four-seamer. Please move on. I know it’s the Diamondbacks, but the ceiling has not shown itself enough to justify enduring games like these. This is who he is, despite what the box scores have shown in the opening months.
Max Fried (NYY) @ TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna blegh. A pair of HRs in the fourth returned all four runs and that’s your ball game. Keep in mind, at least that WHIP is still fantastic.
Gavin Williams (CLE) @ CHC (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 96 pitches.
Gavin. Buddy. Pal. What are we doing, eh? Not a single pitch over 60% strikes. While I’m generally down to split usage 25% across the board, you can’t throw a 44% strike sweeper 25 times. On the bright side, we saw 97+ mph with 6.9 feet of extension on his four-seamer and overall a super low non-competitive rate on all his pitches, save for the sweeper to LHB. He’s nibbling a little too much and you can’t do that against the Cubs. It sounds like you’re making excuses for him. I mean, I kinda wish he had lower velocity and extension with a high “NC rate”. It would make it so much easier to move on, you know? It’s up to you if you want to stick around. He’s on the teetering edge of keep/kut with the chance of removing the TIARA coming any day now. So close yet so far. If you can afford to hold, I think you should, but in many cases, yes. Go get the thing that helps you this week.
Colton Gordon (HOU) @ COL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 87 pitches.
He did what he planned to do – four-seamers up, sweepers + curves down – and it still didn’t work. Yes, Coors is undefeated, but also, it’s not the greatest BSB out there. Now it’s the Dodgers and you really can’t hold on for that. Maybe consider jumping back in for the Rangers in his final start before the break.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs KCR (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 102 pitches.
The changeup ain’t working to LHB and I don’t buy into Hancock as a predominant four-seamer/sinker arm. It’s just not enough.
Shane Smith (CHW) @ LAD (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.
The Dodgers are not to be trifled with. I’m actually super impressed with Smith here – his curveball was a legit villain to LHB with 8/22 whiffs and just one non-competitive hook without a hit allowed. Unfortunately, the kick-change was terrible and his slider was pretty terrible. More strikes here than the walks would suggest and be encouraged by the curve to LHB. I really hope that sticks.
Chase Dollander (COL) vs HOU (L) – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 69 pitches.
Coors. Astros. Dollander. That’s a terrible combination and it required Chase to be at his peak. Spoiler: He wasn’t. Wait, yes he was! He was pitching on a peak a mile above sea level! Nick, I can’t right now. Sorry, when would be a good time?
Game of the Day
Jack Flaherty vs. MacKenzie Gore – This feels like a make or break start for Flaherty. Despite how I feel he’s “fine”, if he struggles again, then we’re in shambles. Gore is just dope so what him.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
