Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) @ MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 70 pitches.
We were supposed to see him early in April. Then May. Then June. Finally, Brandon Woodruff made his season debut on July 6th, returning from shoulder surgery and blowing away all expectations with a King Cole via 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 70 pitches (W) against the Marlins. Oh my.
Yes, pick him up, regardless of the skills analysis based on his future schedule. The Nationals are next with a possibility of @TEA, MIA, @WSN after the All-Star Break. That alone after a start like this is typically worth the shot.
The skills are better than I expected. His four-seamer was in the low 90s early around 91-93 mph, however it ramped up to 94+ mph in his later frames, which is a veteran playing it safe early and not pushing too hard out of the gate. Absurd props to Woody for keeping his body in check despite his emotions enjoying a bouncy castle after birthday cake. He showcased stellar rise on his heater at 18-19″ of vert with generally high locations, too, and his sinker displayed fantastic command to backdoor RHB consistently. Fun stuff.
The cutter, sweeper, and changeup are interesting. The change was impressive to LHB with 4/9 whiffs and another tick for Woodruff laughing in the face of “command is the last to return” analysts. Unfortunately, the sweeper and cutter won’t get similar praise from me. The 90 mph cutter is fine, but has very little movement and looks like a zone pitch without much deception to get chases out of the zone, while the 81 mph sweeper has middling movement and is a work in progress.
Per usual, it’s all about the heater with Woodruff and I imagine the 93 mph with turn into 94 mph by his next outing as he continues to gain confidence that he can floor the gas pedal without harm. Go get him.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Michael Lorenzen (KCR) @ ARI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 82 pitches.
Okay, sure Lorenzen. You want a Gold Star? HERE. TAKE IT. Koufax isn’t always this kind, but I’m glad you were able to go 8/20 whiffs on your changeup. You don’t seem happy. I’M HAPPY, I PROMISE.
Tarik Skubal (DET) @ CLE (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. It’s pretty great having so many pitchers acting like true aces this year. Also pretty fun watching a pitcher at 97/98 mph feature 43% changeups for 14/40 whiffs. It’s not all about velocity, kids.
Trevor Rogers (BAL) @ ATL (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.
The question was if Rogers would continue to nail his heater up and change + slider down and he did just that here…save for a few hanging changeups. He’s feeling it (at 92/93 mph, though) and there’s zero reason to hold back against the Marlins.
George Kirby (SEA) vs PIT (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 93 pitches.
Ah. Um. Hmmm. This is obviously fantastic and that’s great. There’s also the fact that it was @TEA and the Pirates, where his slider barely sat down against RHB and hung a lot to LHB. That said, his curve and slider killed it to LHB regardless and his heater filled in the gaps upstairs, even with 2/7 whiffs on splitters. To RHB, he was able to skirt around the top of the zone with his four-seamer (44% zone rate! YES KIRBY) + the sinker was hit hard but survived over the plate. It’s not the approach I loved in his last two starts, but he also adapted to the Pirates and took advantage of their inability to do damage on the slider (Koufax helped against RHB though…). Heading to Detroit will be tougher and don’t expect this kind of dominance there if he keeps the same approach.
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs DET (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.
What’s this?! A SINKER TO RHB?! The pitch shocked Tigers batters for a 60% chase rate and 77% strikes as he threw it more than his four-seamer, while the sweeper went 71% strikes for 7/17 whiffs. WHO ARE YOU?! Against RHB, the four-seamer and cutter landed upstairs and the curve sat low for 42% strikes but 5/19 whiffs. Yep, this is the Prince That Was Promised + a new sinker that is a fantastic addition to help earn even more strikes. Having three different fastballs (including the cutter) in the zone is a proven path toward success, especially at 96 mph and seven feet of extension. Oh Gavin, please don’t be a mirage. You’ve tasted the honey, how can you ever go back to vinegar?
Paul Skenes (PIT) @ SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 78 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I guess that strikeout rate isn’t dwindling after all? He didn’t earn a ton of four-seamer whiffs (6/43), but recorded eight strikeouts on the pitch. Fun stuff.
Chris Devenski (NYM) vs NYY (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 26 pitches.
This was a bullpen game with Brandon Waddell eventually showing up for 2.2 IP of mediocrity. Let’s move on and hope the Mets don’t have to do this again.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs STL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches.
BOYD BOYZ UNITE! Our leader is an All-Star (woot!) and I hope you all committed a Cardinal Sin with Boyd as he did his normal high heater/low changeup approach for success. No, the slider or curve isn’t doing anything new, it’s just those two pitches working incredibly well. The biggest difference? A sub 1.00 HR/9 this year. He hasn’t held that in a season with more than 40 IP in his career as it sits at a lovely 0.87 mark. Dead ball + Wrigley = a good time for all. Not the hitters. Who? You mean the cardboard cutouts that serve the purpose of giving pitchers an enemy? Uhhhhh, yes? Don’t personify them, yeesh. We also saw Jordan Wicks step in relief for 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 41 pitches and there’s a chance he gets a start or two later. Probably not if the Cubs are as aggressive at the deadline as we expect, and even if he does appear, I’m not seeing anything more than a good changeup from a southpaw – the four-seamer isn’t as exciting as it once was.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs CIN (W) – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks – 22 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 108 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a Gallows Pole and dreams of throwing Austin Hays a better 3-1 fastball. Where were you Koufax? It was one of the very few heaters down the pipe on the day and in that count, Hays hit it out of the park. So close.
Ryan Gusto (HOU) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.
Whoa, you nearly earned a Gold Star for this one. Thanks a lot Koufax, especially on a day where Gusto’s best pitch (the four-seamer) returned a 54% strike rate. HAISTBMBWT?! doesn’t matter when you expected nothing.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) vs HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 80 pitches.
That BSB is alive and well to RHB and I love it. A four-seamer 96 mph with 16-17″ of vert and a 1.3 HAVAA is gorgeous with his precision upstairs + a slider sitting gloveside and a changeup down is a dream. He’s my favorite of the three youngins – Casparius, Wrobleski, Sheehan – and the Dodgers better let him start regularly. Pick him up if you still can.
Chase Burns (CIN) @ PHI (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
He issued a single and a walk to lead off the game, then mostly settled down. He’s going to be a legit stud once he’s able to get a little more confidence in the bigs, especially with the slider as it returned just 47% strikes here. I’m buying low everywhere and expecting demolition against Rockie Road this weekend. I sure hope he doesn’t have to get the Dodgers in GABP at the end of the month, though. That would be rough.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ MIN (ND) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 32 pitches.
So apparently they are turning Rasmussen into an opener for a “few starts” and letting Joe Boyle follow, who went 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches while grinning in my face for ever liking Rasmussen. Oh what’s that, you wanted SP value? TOO BAD IT’S MINE. Ras is sure to pick it back up in August and be a strong arm for weeks, but is it worth holding out for? I don’t think so. I HATE THIS. Anyway, Boyle is a pickup after landing his four-seamer in the zone 62% of the time here at 6.8 extension, 1.3 HAVAA and 98+ mph while sporting a 90/91 mph slider for 60% strikes. Be careful, though. His overall 16% NC Rate is what we’ve seen in the past and he will look like a PEAS often. Here’s to hoping he’s a Cherry Bomb more than HIPSTER.
Hayden Birdsong (SFG) @ ATH (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
Despite a horrendous 18% NC Rate and going 45% strikes across his two most thrown pitches, Birdsong was able to pull off a dub and 1.80 ERA. H’okay bucko. Please get out while you still can.
David Morgan (SDP) vs TEX (ND) – 1.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 37 pitches.
He opened for Kyle Hart’s return to the “rotation” who went 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 43 pitches. That’s perfect but not perfect. Yep. The changeup mimics the sinker’s movement (if not a little worse), but at nine ticks slower and I dig that he’s trying to make it work to RHB. The sweeper feel was solid, but that’s not enough to jump in yet.
Jack Leiter (TEX) @ SDP (L) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.
A whole lot foul balls mixed with a below-average NC Rate made this a struggle for Leiter. The good news? His slider went 41% CSW as his most thrown pitch. The bad? He wasn’t wielding it like a vet and his changeup was a 41% strike rate at 17 thrown, with his heater falling well under a 60% clip as well. He’s not there and all we can do is hope he shows us legitimacy in the second half.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs MIL (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
When I see an efficient start from Cabrera, y’all know I’m expecting to see few four-seamers and GUESS WHAT?! Just 12 thrown, with 34% fastballs overall. This is the way. The curve, slider, and changeup each returned 65%+ strikes and forced the Brewers to do something about it. There’s more polish to be had with his command inside the zone, but he’s got the right idea and obviously good enough stuff. We’re holding on for the ride and hoping he can climb those steps to climb.
Grant Holmes (ATL) vs BAL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
The REB wants a slider back to Holliday, but otherwise pitched well. His cutter is a legit pitch with 77% strikes and performing far better than the heater while the slider and curve are both strong. Yep, he’s solid. A bit volatile given the hittability of his four-seamer, but the secondaries are coming together y’all. Thanks for sticking with this.
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs TBR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a Bailey Special. He hasn’t even had great four-seamer command lately and he’s still racking up the four-seamer whiffs, here pushing his heater to 94.6 mph. What a stud.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs LAA (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 107 pitches.
Ayyyyy 12 splitter whiffs with 14 four-seamer called strikes! That’s more like it. But he had horrible WHIP. Oh. Yeah, that’s pretty terrible. The Angels’ RHB absolutely demolished that four-seamer when they weren’t passive with it. But the splitter was legit! This was some poor luck involved with just two hard hit balls, but it is pretty frustrating to get a Dusty Donut on one of Gausman’s “good” days, you know? I feel you.
Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ WSN (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna get Singled Out with a sub 60% strike four-seamer with the Nationals sending more RHB than usual to the dish. Gotta throw better heaters, Crochet. Pretty easy solution here.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) @ TOR (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.
He went against the LHB-heavy Jays who are strong against LHP, but Anderson’s changeup is his best pitch and I was hoping he can could pull something off. Sadly, that changeup didn’t get down enough and allowed a longball + five hits on the day with a Careful, Icarus as he allowed three runners on in the sixth for a run and was forunate two more inherited runs didn’t go onto his books – yes, this was a decent 1.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP through five frames. Just a thought. He gets the Sneks next before the break with a possible start against the Phillies after and that’s no fun.
Erick Fedde (STL) @ CHC (L) – 1.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 53 pitches.
Don’t trust the Feddes. Seriously, that big beautiful bill of health he’s had is not to be trusted. Uhhh, I care more about his performance. Oh right. That’s pretty poor, too, save for as a streamer against poor lineups. Even then, it’s mid.
Max Fried (NYY) @ NYM (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
Dangit Fried, that wasn’t part of the deal. But I got you a Win and a strikeout per inning. Ugh. Fine. And I threw a great cutter! Yeah, you did. Could have used a few more strikes though. Sorry boss. Won’t happen again. IT BETTER NOT.
Chase Dollander (COL) vs CHW (ND) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 92 pitches.
Dollander, I’m sorry you signed with the Rockies. I truly am.
Anthony DeSclafani (ARI) vs KCR (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 60 pitches.
Does 30% curveballs + 18% sliders count as Dancing With The Disco? Feels weird to see DeSclafani not lean heavier into his slider, but watching it made me understand his sporadic feel for it. There may be something here if he continues to get starts with the trade deadline looming at a losing 44-46 record – you may see Tony Disco sticking as others leave. Don’t ignore him for the second half in 15-teamers if the volume is there.
Shinnosuke Ogasawara (WSN) vs BOS (L) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 55 pitches.
Yeaaaaaah, let’s not go after this okay? There isn’t anything special to chase. Maybe the changeup from the left side can make him a crafty southpaw in time, but it’s too meh for now.
Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs SFG (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.
He had two runs through four with a legit WHIP and strikeouts but, he ran into trouble in the fifth and ruined what was a great day. Womp womp. It’s a fragile approach that can very much work (it did for a while!) and it makes for a dicey risk/reward. Keep that in mind when making your choices with Lopez. It’s a likely sit for the Jays and a possible return in Texas or Cleveland after the break.
Shane Smith (CHW) @ COL (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 71 pitches.
Coors can mess with a guy and this was alright until the fifth frame, like J. Lo above. Just five whiffs on the night with Koufax helping as he could tells you a lot, though. He couldn’t get that slider spotted down-and-away to RHB – the Colorado weakness – and there’s your ballgame. Thing is, he gets the Guardians next and if the kick-change can go 77% strikes again, maybe that’ll work. You’re okay getting a streamer instead, y’all. This was a great run, but the regression is here.
Game of the Day
Zac Gallen vs. Yu Darvish – What year is it?! I’m stoked to watch Darvish for the first time all season while we’re hoping Gallen can build off his last start.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
