Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Payton Tolle (BOS) @ TOR (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches.
When I hear the name Payton Tolle, the first thing that comes to mind is a young, left-handed starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox. A close second is one of my favorite new-age spiritual philosophers, Eckhart Tolle.
Eckhart has written multiple books and recorded hundreds of podcasts (welcome to the club!), all centered around bringing yourself into the present moment to find the peace within you. Indirectly, whenever Payton pitches, I forget my ego, enter into the here and now, and become at ease knowing that everything happens for a reason. By separating my awareness from my thoughts and feelings, I realize that I am so much more than the story I tell myself about who I am.
Philosophy aside, Payton Tolle has not only imparted peace upon those who see the link between him and a spiritual mentor, but has also given fantasy managers peace of mind with consistently elite performances across his first full Major League season. He continued his success in Toronto on Thursday via 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 91 pitches (W). It wasn’t his most dominant performance, as he induced single-digit whiffs for just the sixth time in 20 starts, but it was the longest shutout performance of his career.
Tolle’s attack is led by an elite four-seamer that dominates upstairs at 96+ mph with elite extension (7.4 feet) and a flat attack angle (1.5 HAVAA). It has moments when it’s untouchable, and others like Thursday, when it churns outs on balls in play. He supports it with a sinker and cutter that complete his Ras Pack. The cutter is more of a slider at 88-90 mph with 6-7″ iVB and 3″ iHB (though it was more cutter-like on Thursday, likely due to the indoor stadium at Rogers Centre).
The cutter is the difference-maker, as it provides the support the four-seamer needs both when it’s not at its best command- or stuff-wise, and when batters are hunting it. Predictability has been my biggest concern with Tolle all year. He’s quelled those concerns by expanding his arsenal in the second half, cutting back on four-seamers by 7% to 42% usage, adding 4% usage to his cutter to 22%. It propelled a career-high 14 strikeouts last time out and assisted in his Koufax-aided success on Thursday.
The real undercover superhero has been his curveball, which has seen a 4% uptick since the All-Star break, similar to the cutter. At 82-84 mph, it creates a huge velocity difference that constantly catches batters off guard. It’s not commanded super well, but with an arsenal-leading 42% CSW this year, it’s clearly a pitch that’s tough to handle. It’s an addition that parallels Yankees rival Cam Schlittler, who also employs an elite Ras Pack that has enlisted the assistance of a hook.
With the foundational elite four-seamer leading the charge, flanked by a solid sinker, an x-factor cutter, and a secret weapon curveball, Tolle has the weapons to dominate any lineup. With a sub-3.00 ERA and a 28% strikeout rate through 20 starts, he’s established himself as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. As long as his innings aren’t limited down the stretch, he’s going to force us to consider scheduling his Coronation Day before the end of the year. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Cade Cavalli (WSN) vs CHC (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 103 pitches.
HOT DANG! What a start from Cavalli! He was throwing 1-2 ticks harder across the board, meaning his signature curveball was like a hungry shark with a nasty bite to it at a season-high 87.8 mph average velocity. It allowed him to survive 6.2 no-hit frames before a blooper fell in front of the left fielder, leading to a round of applause from the home crowd. With all no-hit bids, a little help from Koufax is required (13 outs on 14 balls in play), and Cavalli needed incredible efficiency in two-strike counts (71% putaway rate) to rack up double-digit strikeouts for the fourth time this year. We’re not expecting him to be perfect every game, so even with the good fortune, we can look at the increased velo that he’s held for most of the year and be confident that he’ll continue to build on the 3.23 ERA and 27% strikeout rate he’s posted across his past 21 starts. The schedule only gets easier with @TEX/Rockie Road/MIA to close out the month. Let’s riiiiide! (View Game Card)
Keider Montero (DET) vs CLE (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BB, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 88 pitches.
Montero is like Indiana Jones with his ability to master a WHIP. That’s a sub-1.00 WHIP through 26 outings encompassing 128.2 frames, despite a heavy reliance on balls in play, evidenced by a sub-17% strikeout rate. Rarely do pitchers sending so many balls in have so much success at limiting hits. Think of guys like Clay Holmes, Kevin Gausman, and Framber Valdez, guys who get plenty of ground balls, but struggle to return low WHIPs because they rely on the defense behind them. Montero’s been lucky to return a sub-7 H/9, a mark reserved for the best starters in baseball. It’s easy to point to his unsustainable .225 BABIP and write the whole thing off, but Montero isn’t like those heavy ground ball pitchers. Instead, he gets a bunch of pop-ups and weakly hit fly balls with an innate ability to keep the ball in the yard. On top of that, he keeps the basepaths clear with a sub-6% walk rate, limiting the other half of the WHIP equation. On Thursday, Montero needed a bit of help from Koufax, but he gave us a win, a quality start, and nearly seven innings of pristine ratios. Most of us will see the big fat zero in the strikeout column and complain about the dryness of our bread (HAISTBMBWT?!), but you’ve gotta be happy with Montero’s production if you held onto him in deeper leagues. With 4+ runs in two of his past four starts, the cracks have started to show, and it’s difficult to put my faith in a guy with such a clear lack of swing-and-miss, but he’s proven to be a reliable streamer against bottom-half offenses. (View Game Card)
Logan Gilbert (SEA) @ NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BB, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace for a Gallows Pole. With an extra 1-2 ticks of velo to sport his highest velocity of the season, Gilbert’s four-seamer overwhelmed batters in the zone (63% zone%) to the tune of 80% strikes. Splitters and sliders were commanded beautifully downstairs, combining for 10 whiffs and five punchouts. With the second-furthest extension (7.6 ft) in the league, Gilbert is nearly invincible when he’s sitting 97-98 mph and touching 99. (View Game Card)
Walbert Ureña (LAA) vs TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 100 pitches.
A mini blip last time out didn’t shrink our confidence in Ureña, as he’s still throwing 98+ mph fastballs, with elite 92 mph changeups, and an emerging sweeper at 88+ mph. The extra velo hides the poor shape of his fastballs, allowing him to get away with mistakes in the zone stemming from his unspectacular command, setting up his changeup to dominate downstairs. Ureña was a little more reliant on batted-ball luck on Thursday than we typically like to see, as he induced just one whiff with his slowball, but with his heavy, high-velo stuff producing 56% ground balls and weak contact, he had no problem shutting out the Rangers for six frames. Keep rolling with him. (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ MIA (W) – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BB, 10 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 85 pitches.
Way to silence the doubters! Ashcraft has been missing one of his breakers and struggling against LHB for the better part of the last two months, calling into question the outlook of his breakout campaign. He put those questions to rest with an efficient masterpiece, pitching all nine frames on just 85 pitches while racking up double-digit strikeouts for the third time this year to earn the King Cole. That PL award is no small feat given how deep he pitched into this one, but it speaks to his ability to trust his stuff in the zone against a passive and struggling Marlins offense. Let’s hope this is the end of his rough patch and that he carries over this dominance when he hosts the Tigers next week. Complete games can sometimes leave a pitcher gassed in his next start, but his low pitch count means he should have no limits next time out. (View Game Card)
Max Fried (NYY) vs SEA (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.
Is this enough to earn Fried his AGA tag? I’ll leave that up to Nick. It wasn’t dominant, but to be fair, that’s not the word I’d use to describe Fried. He’s never been a high strikeout arm, and he’s never thrown gas. He’s about as elite as a Holly gets, putting him in the same conversation as Yoshinobu Yamamoto this year. He won’t blow your socks off, but he will consistently pitch deep into games, setting himself up for wins, and a positively outsized impact on your ratios. There shouldn’t be any hesitation about starting him @BAL next. (View Game Card)
Max Scherzer (TOR) vs BOS (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 92 pitches.
The legend continues! Scherzer looked completely cooked this year, but that’s now four straight starts with two runs or fewer. You can’t give him that first one! Fine, the first start was just 2.2 innings, and it wasn’t pretty, but the last three have been great! Not vintage Scherzer or anything, but enough to warrant considering him as a streamer. The most important thing at this point is that he does enough to keep the Blue Jays from looking foolish for allowing him to chase ninth place on the all-time strikeouts leaderboard. With now 3520 strikeouts under his belt, he’s just 14 shy of tying Gaylord Perry for ninth place. We’re all rooting for you, Mad Max! (View Game Card)
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ MIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.
Nola must be a fan of Kevin Costner, because he took to the Field of Dreams and broke out his best curveball to tie his season-high with nine strikeouts. The hook was dotted beautifully low and gloveside, inducing 11 whiffs and 39% CSW, while mixing with sinkers and changeups below the zone. Four-seamers filled up the zone with the odd cutter popping in to say hello. If Nola could just throw only curveballs and changeups, I’d be thrilled, but I also think that wouldn’t work. His heaters are too susceptible to damage due to volatile command and velocity, making him too untrustworthy to roster in standard leagues. Is now a good time to ask for the stats from his recent starts? It’s a 4.00 ERA and 27% strikeout rate across his last eight starts since the beginning of July. Why don’t you like that? Because it comes with a 1.38 WHIP and the constant threat of a blowup. (View Game Card)
Roki Sasaki (LAD) vs MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 101 pitches.
Where has my command gone? How can I go on? It seems my command has gone away! Where is my feared split? I’m nowhere near it! Oh yes, my command has gone astray. But I’ll blame it on the runs. The runs that didn’t score. Ya’ll have got to listen to more Stevie Wonder! Sasaki lost the feel for his secondaries, returning just 46% strikes between them. That was enough to force his fastball into a corner in three-ball counts, leading to five walks. Now he heads to Coors before heading to Hotlanta. I think we should take a break from him until September. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) @ DET (L) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 102 pitches.
Messick at 95+ mph with great changeup command is exactly what we want to see. So, why was this start so disappointing? Too many four-seamers flew well above the zone, leading to a 53% strike rate on the pitch. Changeups also fell a little bit too low, failing to induce chases and leading to an even worse 44% strike rate. It made for inefficiency, as he struggled to put batters away, throwing 39 pitches in two-strike counts. That’s been an issue we’ve seen pop up from time to time for Messick, but if that’s the worst thing you can say about a guy, I think he’s doing pretty well. It’s smooth sailing ahead with SFG/@LAA/KCR to close out the month. (View Game Card)
Jacob deGrom (TEX) @ LAA (L) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 53 pitches.
deGrom left this one with triceps fatigue, leaving us holding our breath in the hopes that it’s not something more serious. Baseball’s better with healthy aces! (View Game Card)
Shane Drohan (MIL) @ LAD (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 85 pitches.
Handed a tough matchup in Hollywood, Drohan did all he could to make courageous fantasy managers proud. He gave you a Dusty Donut as he fell apart in the sixth, walking the final two batters he faced and watching both score on a home run after he got pulled from the game. Careful, Icarus. His BSB approach isn’t very inspiring, but it’s been decently successful this year. Go ahead and stream him when he hosts Seattle next week, but don’t feel the need to hold onto him too tightly. Let go! You’re hurting him! (View Game Card)
Davis Martin (CHW) vs CIN (ND) – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BB, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 35 pitches.
C’mon, Davis. I know you’ve had a frustrating stretch of starts since your impressive early-season run, but you can’t be head-hunting a guy just because he hit a homer off of you. Martin was ejected in the third frame after he threw two pitches up and in to Sal Stewart, the second of which hit his helmet, after the young slugger took him deep in the first. He’ll likely face a five-game suspension. Not a good look. (View Game Card)
Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs PIT (L) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BB, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
Phillips just doesn’t have the command or stuff to take down LHB consistently. That being said, this was a weird one, where a leadoff triple in the fifth scored on a balk. While Phillips was mulling that over in his head, he lost focus and served up a meatball to the next batter and watched it sail over the wall. Then, in the sixth, a pair of one-out singles sent him to the showers where he watched both inherited runners come around to score. Careful, Icarus. Phillips is a fine play in NL-only leagues, though I would love to see him recover the tick of velo and 2-3 ticks of extension he lost here. Give it your all! You may never get another shot in the rotation. (View Game Card)
Andrew Abbott (CIN) @ CHW (ND) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.
Time to replace the batteries. What kind do we need? Double-A! Abbott’s been on a downward trajectory, as he’s failed to display the above-average command that allows him to outpitch his underlying metrics and the expectations of pitching analysts everywhere. The secondary support was lacking on Thursday, as they returned just 54% strikes, leading to four-seamers getting pummeled (four hits) or avoiding punishment (three walks). The upside was never worth chasing, and now that the ratios aren’t putting smiles on our faces, it’s time to let him go. In five second-half starts, he has a 4.18 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and a sub-2% K-BB%. Never ignore the K/BB prophets! Never speak in absolutes. Touché. (View Game Card)
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs PHI (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 89 pitches.
Maybe Bradley’s never seen Field of Dreams. Maybe Statcast has never seen Bradley pitch. Yeah, what’s up with splitters being labeled sinkers? Whatever. We’re looking for Bradley to throw harder and find 60%+ strikes on each of his main trio of pitches. Did we get either of those? NOPE! His velo was slightly down, and while four-seamers returned 64% strikes, splitters and cutters earned 53% and 35% strikes, respectively. Bradley has failed to check those two requirements in each of his last three starts, leading to a 6.60 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and a sub-3% K-BB%, lending credence to the assertion that his control is the source of his powers. It’s up to you, but it gets tricky now with Hotlanta and Sacré Verde up next. Not my cup of tea despite his success this year. (View Game Card)
Kevin Gausman (CHC) @ WSN (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BB, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
This isn’t Timberwolves KG or even Celtics KG. This is Nets KG. The amazing Cubs defense is supposed to save Gausman from dealing with ridiculous BABIPs! A three-run homer ruined his line, but it was getting Singled Out with five singles on his six other hits, stemming from a .462 BABIP that really did him in. Whatareyougonnado. I’m gonna keep starting him, fully aware of his Cherry Bomb nature. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Chase Burns vs. Sandy Alcantara – Watch the radar guns light up!
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
