Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup: Getting The Final Yusei

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Yusei Kikuchi (HOU) vs BOS (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 99 pitches.

It’s been a journey with Yusei Kikuchi this season and it was represented well during yesterday’s 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 99 pitches outing against the Red Sox. Kikuchi allowed a home run on the very first pitch and a second run following an error, then settled in across the rest of the game, despite getting bounced with a man on first (error) before the pen blew his Win three pitches later. (Stupid Yoshida home runs…) It showcases Kikuchi’s early struggles, ability to adapt, and how I expect him to finish strong this season.

Kikuchi’s time with the Astros has given us more four-seamers and sliders, which is a wonderful thing. His heater boasts a 98th percentile PLV for a reason, earning 9/40 whiffs in this game and consistent locations upstairs, allowing it to take full advantage of its flat attack angle (mind throwing a few more in the first inning next game?). The slider has stepped back into the role of a #2 pitch and despite some chaos here and there, it’s 17% SwStr rate over the last two months is exactly what Kikuchi has needed.

There are some changeups and curves here and there as well, leaving the door open for growth as both are not reliable offerings in their current form. We saw that slowball perform well in his debut for the Astros, but its poor strike rates have correctly forced it to the shelf, here holding a putrid 43% strike rate and doing more harm than good.

I’m a believer in Kikuchi the rest of the way. The Astros are winning games and are using him correctly, while the fastball-slider combo is strong enough to keep the strikeouts flowing and ratios generally down. There will be some moments of turbulence given the breaker’s elevated 41% ICR, and trust that the end result is what you’re looking for.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:

 

Gavin Stone (LAD) vs SEA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 90 pitches.

Oh snap, you earned a co-share of the King Cole – a rare feat as it requires an identical ratio. More importantly, TEN STRIKEOUTS. Yeah yeah yeah, Blame it on the Mariners, but Stone was 95/96 mph (great flat attack angle too!) with both his slider and changeup cooking, even featuring 6/8 strikes with his curve and 3/5 on his sweeper. Those secondaries were glistening at the bottom of the zone all night, save for those hooks (and two cutters!) stealing strikes at times. I really want to believe this is the Stone we’ll see every time out. Wouldn’t that be lovely. At the very least, it should be somewhat similar as he hosts the Rays next time out.

Joe Boyle (OAK) vs TBR (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 104 pitches.

HA. Leave it to the Rays to grant Boyle his best outing of the year. Here’s your Gold Star, go put it in your journal. The man actually threw strikes at a dependable rate, nailing down the coveted 60% strike rate on his slider with a 64% clip on his heater. We’ll take that all day (even 4/4 strikes on his sweeper!) and yet, there’s no way I’m banking on him doing it again. This wasn’t 70% strikes, y’all. It was just enough.

Kyle Harrison (SFG) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.

Atta boy Harrison! You were able to get your curve over the plate far more than usual, while the four-seamer lived in the upper half and forced the White Sox to do something about it. You’re off to Seattle now and that seems like a solid outing given their absurd boost to strikeouts. Don’t get too enamored after that one, though.

David Peterson (NYM) vs BAL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 101 pitches.

I’m really underrating Peterson, aren’t I. This was a game of sinkers returning 17 called strikes, leading to a whopping 50% CSW (lol), which y’all know isn’t a sustainable thing, especially when he’s not playing the stupid-good low changeup game like Logan Webb and friends. Maybe I’m overlooking that it’s a five-pitch mix with elevated four-seamers late in at-bats (zero Ks), sliders around the zone, and the rare curve, but then again, he earned most of his strikeouts with his sinker. Is that really gonna stick? It’s the Padres next and if you want to Vargas Rule it, I don’t blame you, but it seems too atypical and odd to me.

Seth Lugo (KCR) vs LAA (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.

Nine pitch types, eight strikeouts, seven innings. Atta boy Lugo, thanks for being the man you’re supposed to be after the turmoil of the last month.

Bryan Woo (SEA) @ LAD (L) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.

He looked great. Yes, I’m still waiting for a slider or cutter or changeup or something in the secondary department to really wow me (he had a nice sweeper in there!), but the fastballs are just so well spotted and hard to hit. Well, outside of the last two he threw – a sinker down the pipe for a HR, then a sinker that ran way inside for a HBP. Overall, you can understand how he’s capable of going 6+ under 90 pitches with his fastball foundation, and can you imagine if he had a stupid filthy breaker in there too? It’s the last piece of the puzzle to turn Woo into a 25%+ strikeout arm. One day…

Michael King (SDP) vs MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 85 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Go watch his first two innings and see how silly those two runs were. He “walked” a batter + three balls in play on dotted down-and-armside pitches that didn’t go his way. His command is unreal.

Tanner Houck (BOS) @ HOU (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 90 pitches.

Nick! A Golden Goal! That’s three straight solid outings in a row! HE’S BACK! Man, all I want to do is celebrate with you and…he earned 1/9 whiffs on splitters. Wait, 10% usage? Yeah. Huh. This was a sinker/sweeper game where Houck did a phenomenal job of spotting sweepers to RHB – instead of incessantly pounding the zone with the breaker, Houck elected to keep it just off the outside edge consistently – while his sinker did work gloveside. Thing is, five of those eight hits came of LHB, which shouldn’t be a surprise as the splitter’s job is to nullify LHB. Oh, so he took full advantage of RHB and struggled against LHB. Like the concerns you and Eric expressed in the pre-season. Exactly. I absolutely love how well Houck performed here, but that splitter is what changed him from a Brady Singer type Cherry Bomb (RHB sinker/slider) into a temporary AGA. He needs it back if he wants to sustain these outcomes. I think he does. Wise person you are.

Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ SDP (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 92 pitches.

I watched this one and wasn’t as impressed with his four-seamer command as in his debut, but the slider focus is very much appreciated with 27% usage as it kept the Padres on their toes effectively…outside of an RBI single in the first. By the way, those 2 ER? Both in the first due to an 0-2 HBP (first slider of the game), jammed cutter barely fisted out to left-center for a single, chopper out RBI, groundball single to left RBI. That’s it. He was squeezed a touch as well and while that line is awfully representative of a Toby, I think Matthews has more strikeout upside in the tank. The Padres aren’t an easy matchup for your second outing and to see him limit proper punishment is a showcase of his overall skill. I’m digging his start against the Cardinals up next.

Carson Fulmer (LAA) @ KCR (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 76 pitches.

Blegh. He’s a deep streaming option in hopes that the change and slider take over and instead we saw 58% fastballs. That’s not the best version of Fulmer. I’d pass against the Jays unless you’re desperate over the weekend.

Julian Aguiar (CIN) @ TOR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 57 pitches.

He’s a 94 mph sinkerballer without much else. Ignore? Ignore.

Taj Bradley (TBR) @ OAK (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.

Ehhhh, this was a lot of chaos. A full-on shotgun blast of everything, with his heater failing to find the top of the zone, splitters up and down, and cutters floated and spotted. He’s just a Cherry Bomb and it’s hard to feel otherwise. Sigh.

Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 100 pitches.

It’s so close to being good. His inefficiency is hurting plenty and one fewer baserunner, one fewer run, and one more inning turns this into a fist pump in the air. It’s that close and yet…6/37 splitter whiffs. 16% SwStr rate on the pitch that is supposed to carry you? Not good enough. I. NEED. MORE.

Trevor Rogers (BAL) @ NYM (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.

Oh cool, we’re not there yet. Good to know. Goooooood to know.

Dane Dunning (TEX) vs PIT (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 63 pitches.

This was a split of Dunning and Ureña, with José earning the Win across four shutout frames. What. I know, I know. But remember kids–DAD. WE KNOW.

Luis L. Ortiz (PIT) @ TEX (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.

A pair of HRs including 3-run shot in the third did all the damage here. We saw more four-seamers than sinkers, which worked well without allowing a hit and earning three strikeouts – in fact, both homers came on a slider and cutter down the pipe. Don’t do that. With the Reds in Pittsburgh up next, I’d feel fine with Ortiz.

Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ MIA (W) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.

I watched a bit of this one and I really do get him. His command is great and the big issue is finding one more pitch to throw with confidence. The fastballs are a bit too hittable and the sweeper can be filthy, but isn’t the weapon for all occasions. He needs a true slider or cutter. The latter is more likely given his affinity for the sweep. I hope to see it in 2025.

Jonathan Cannon (CHW) @ SFG (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.

This was all fine and dandy until some poor heaters and a bit of bad luck turned the fifth into a crooked inning. Cannon has the raw skills but needs to refine his consistency just a bit more to be that efficient 6+ IP guy without allowing nine baserunners.

Adam Oller (MIA) vs ARI (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 90 pitches.

Look, you went all or nothing and got Oller Nothing. You knew what you were getting yourself into.

 

Game of the Day

 

Bryce Miller vs. Walker Buehler – I read this as B. Miller vs. Buehler and did a double take. I just want both pitchers to be their best dangit.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Photo courtesy of the Houston Astros | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)