Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs MIA (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 100 pitches.
Are we doing this again? I’ve written off Aaron Nola for long time this season as a 15-team HIPSTER, but he’s on a hot stretch at the moment, carrying a 2.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 32% strikeout rate across his last four games, including last night’s effort against the Marlins of 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 100 pitches that awarded him a a co-share of the Gallows Pole. Oh the temptations!
As always, the driver of success is Nola’s curveball, which has pushed elite CSW marks in all of these starts, including a 53% clip on Wednesday as the Marlins lived by their name and went fishing on the hook 57% of the time out of the zone. That’s some classic Nola.
But the real problem of the season has been the home runs. Ohhh the homerunity! Nola holds a 2.04 HR/9 this year, averaging more than one longball per start. That’s, uh, not great, and you would think that during a stretch of 8 ER in four games that he may have avoided the longball once. Nope. In fact, Nola has allowed a tater in eight consecutive starts, and has allowed a souvenir in 20 of 26 games this year. Yeah.
I’m not sure what to make of it. On one hand, it’s less convincing to believe he’s fixed something innately troubling him if he’s still experiencing the bane of his existence, but on the other, if he wasn’t allowing HRs suddenly, wouldn’t we be expecting regression around the corner?
So what do we do? Well, I’d say do whatever you like. If you need to chase strikeouts, his curveball feel is stellar and will likely tease many Mariners batters @TEA on Tuesday. If you’re trying to preserve your ratios, this isn’t the arm to go after. After all, he earned 23 whiffs and 19 whiffs on back-to-back starts on June 29th and July 5th, in a pair of games that combined for 10 ER. Yikes. The man is the very definition of “Hit or Miss”. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
José Urquidy (CHW) @ CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 68 pitches.
Hot DANG, look at you! An incredible Gold Star for Urquidy, acting as the follower and having a field day with his sinker with a 45% called strike rate (leading to a well-deserved King Cole award), then 24%+ SwStr rates on his changeup and curveball (the latter far more erratic than the former). It seemed more like a surprise to the Cubs – 8 strikeouts and 6 IP on 68 pitches is bonkers – and it’s highly unlikely to repeat against the Rangers on Monday. However, it would be a two-step with the Twins after…be careful. Just 68 pitches means he may go only four frames and not be stretched out in the future. If he has an opener, though, does that matter? (View Game Card)
Cade Cavalli (WSN) @ TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 84 pitches.
So, uh, should I be handing out an AGA tag to Cavalli if he does this again? It’s pretty believable he’s going to feature the increased velocity, and the cutter still exists (albeit just 6 thrown here). Y’all let me know. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) vs SFG (L) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 98 pitches.
A co-share of the Gallows Pole is a little surprising for a day when he didn’t even have his best changeup. Fortunately, the fastball is still cooking and the Giants were in town. Thanks, fellas. (View Game Card)
Matt Wilkinson (SFG) @ CLE (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 12% CSW, 25 pitches.
Tugboat! I did a quick video of him on our YouTube channel for those unfamiliar – 7.1 ft extension at 90 mph with a developing change – but the real story is follower Adrian Houser, who went 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 80 pitches in a fantastic performance against the Guardians. I was intrigued, but big-brained this TOO much after questioning his secondaries against LHB. The solution? Don’t throw em! The fastballs killed it and here we are, eyeing his next start (follower) in Oracle Park against the Reds. (View Game Card)
Clay Holmes (CHC) vs CHW (L) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 86 pitches.
This is a Dusty Donut with a HAISTBMBWT?! and I’m fine with it. Say what. Look, The Adobe heading to Chicago was a fantastic fit and I imagined it would lead to games just like this one. He’s a sinkerballer and will keep the ERA down with a good chance for a Win, at the cost of a higher WHIP and fewer strikeouts. Sure, the dub didn’t come through (THANKS URQUIDY), but this is the kind of line you should get used to. (View Game Card)
Jackson Jobe (DET) @ PIT (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 86 pitches.
I remember being super into Jobe when he first came up. He throws upper 90s with three legit secondaries?! This is AWESOME! Now we flash to today: 65% fastball usage with 3/29 whiffs on secondaries (all from the slider). Not one strikeout on anything but the heater, and we’re all wondering when he’s supposed to start being that guy. Maybe when a cutter appears? Or the slider is used more than twice in a two-strike count? I honestly don’t know at this point, but the stuff is too good to sit against the Rays, Twins, and Guardians, and he’s throwing enough strikes to give us hope. (View Game Card)
Taj Bradley (MIN) vs ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 88 pitches.
Ah yes, your standard “Fastballs everywhere around the zone, splitters generally down and away to LHB with a collection of rebels, and cutters trying to go Canibal McSanchez to LHB and down-and-away to RHB”. I guess this is the good side of Bradley. I sure hope we keep seeing it, even if it opens him up for some disaster starts. (View Game Card)
Robert Stock (NYM) vs SDP (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.
Another solid 4.1 IP start makes me happy to see from Stock, but this feels like the peak, not the norm. You need more meat on the bone. (View Game Card)
Michael King (SDP) @ NYM (L) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 100 pitches.
Oh look, another start where I throw up my arms and tell myself I’m going to stop trying to decipher King. Pitches went all over the place but the end result was still lovely, and I’m just going to call him a HIPSTER and call it a day. At least it’s the Pirates up next. (View Game Card)
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) @ KCR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
I guess this is sunshine and rainbows in Kansas City, even with a HAISTBMBWT?! I dunno, I don’t really care – it’s one of the best matchups he’ll get and it was a whole lot of whatever. (View Game Card)
Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs WSN (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 92 pitches.
You can see the gameplan of up-and-away sinkers and sliders in the dirt to LHB, and I love seeing 17″ of horizontal run return to the sinker. It could mean a decent start or two with the White Sox and hosting the Athletics up next, though they could return the same basic line, too. (View Game Card)
Roki Sasaki (LAD) @ COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 99 pitches.
The slider overperformed to LHB (they acted like angry Twitter users with all the bait they took), and his fastball still scares me over the plate. His seven hits all came off mistakes in the zone, but hey, Coors! He survived! Now it’s Atlanta, who hasn’t been up to snuff since the start of the month. I guess we’re going for it. (View Game Card)
Chase Burns (CIN) vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 104 pitches.
Aces gonna pitch inefficiently with few four-seamer whiffs and infrequent competitive sliders. Still productive, but that’s the reason he’s going five frames – not a Reds decision to limit Burns. In fact, he’s gone five frames of 100+ pitches multiple times. It’s on him. (View Game Card)
Will Warren (NYY) @ BAL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
I’m happy to see Warren feature a 15-point reduction in fastballs to favor more breakers, and yet it was all so…ehhhh. He returned terrible strike rates on the changeup and sinker, and I wonder if he’ll get traded elsewhere in the off-season. Seems like there are other options the Yankees would favor at this point. In the meantime, he’ll get a start against Houston (Questionable tier…?) and may be back to long relief if Fried is ready to go. (View Game Card)
Ethan Pecko (HOU) vs LAA (ND) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 89 pitches.
It was the MLB debut for Pecko and I’m sure all of y’all were smart enough to follow the PILOT Rule. Rules are rules for reasons! I didn’t see anything exceptional here. In fact, it made me feel like I was watching Buehler with how everything was a standard affair. Yep, that’s a 94 mph heater. Sure, a breaker, and a sinker, oh look, Honey! A changeup he’s supposed to throw to LHB. This isn’t the young arm to grab right now. (View Game Card)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) @ PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 97 pitches.
This was a day of pitchers trying to do it all with four-seamers and I can’t believe he featured high heaters to LHB incessantly in two strikes and failed every time. But he has a strikeout! It was a taken four-seamer down-and-away to Trea. Okay, that’s hilarious. If you’re not into the VPQS, then it’s a sad Wonka, leaving me hoping he finds a way to feature breaking pitches or the slowball more often to put batters away. (View Game Card)
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 100 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! A low WHIP, PQS, and nine strikeouts is luscious, and yet, I’m going to let him sit on the wire. I’m constantly looking for a reason to jump back in on Libby, and I can’t escape the dissatisfaction of nine strikeouts on just eight whiffs. The putaway rate per two-strike batter was stupid high and clearly unsustainable, with the same chance of a low three-strikeout game next time out. He’s a Werewolf. (View Game Card)
Chris Bassitt (BAL) vs NYY (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
Bassitt is still a pitcher with a chance to go a quiet six frames. He’ll get dinged up on the way and without the upside I’m looking for, but if that’s what you want, here it is. (View Game Card)
Walbert Ureña (LAA) @ HOU (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
Ureńa’s changeup is stellar. If the fastballs can return 60%+ strikes, crisis averted. If his fastballs combine for 55% strikes or fewer, then we’ve got a problem. He sat right around there and allowed one more ER than we want to see. Sure, whatever. You’re still happy with this and must hold on moving forward. (View Game Card)
Payton Tolle (BOS) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 98 pitches.
After his last two games of TOTAL DOMINATION, this mid-outing hits differently, and it exposes a flaw in his game that I hope he figures out before next season. The requirement I had for Tolle to be a solid fantasy arm this year was to consistently throw strikes, and Cha-CHING! He’s done that in spades. A bit too much now, allowing batters to swing 56% of the time without fear. With the Ras Pack and a questionable hook, Tolle desperately needs a changeup or splitter to take over the bottom of the zone and keep batters honest via a pitch that slows down and goes away from RHB, unlike the cutter that comes inside, allowing batters out in front to still make contact. Anyway, Tolle is still great and you already know that. But he could be better. (View Game Card)
Logan Gilbert (SEA) @ MIL (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.
Read what I just wrote about Tolle. Gilbert was the opposite. Batters swung just 36% of the time on his four-seamer, even though it was competitive just outside the zone. He’s a man that has to feature 65-70% strikes with his four-seamer and this was one of those days where it didn’t come together. So it goes. (View Game Card)
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs DET (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 81 pitches.
This is really something, isn’t it? At least he’s throwing 97 mph again, but the fella went up there and tried to brute-force it with his four-seamer, tossing it 56% of the time. It’s like it was a bad pitch, what was strange was using his sweeper 13 times as his second most-thrown offering and barely turning to the rest of his wide arsenal. That sweeper is not a stellar pitch for Skenes on its own, and what makes him special is the 97 mph velocity with a wide arsenal. The combination of power pitcher and kitchen-sink. The last three months have been so weird. (View Game Card)
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) @ MIN (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 75 pitches.
I wasn’t impressed in his season debut and this was different, but still uninspiring. On the plus side, his splitter was fantastic with a killer 35% SwStr rate and 71% strikes as his most thrown pitch. On the negative side is everything else. The four-seamer sat two ticks lower to a pedestrian 95 mph, running into everyone on the street with 0/20 whiffs. The curveball is the third option at 75 mph – a velocity reserved for hooks that never bait swings. With the Dodgers up next, I don’t see why we’d hold. (View Game Card)
Kyle Freeland (COL) vs LAD (ND) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 66 pitches.
You don’t need me. Or Freeland. That’s the point. (View Game Card)
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs ATH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 96 pitches.
This was an outing set up for success. I did everything for this man, and this is how he repays me? There’s simply not enough there for us to hold on. (View Game Card)
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ BOS (ND) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 94 pitches.
It was a textbook Careful, Icarus with Pfaadt allowing a three-run HR on his very last pitch – a 2-2 changeup just down and out of the zone. Baseball, you cruel beast. He’s on top of his game right now with an approach that works and you best keep starting him. (View Game Card)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) vs TOR (W) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.
Aces gonna get Singled Out. It’s the second straight mortal performance and every pitcher has them. The velo is still 95/96 mph, nothing to worry about. (View Game Card)
Max Scherzer (TOR) @ TBR (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 73 pitches.
Yiiiikes. You really shouldn’t be starting Scherzer. It’s sad to see him go through this, and he still has some juice in that arm, but just go get another box and stop rattling to get the last drops with your straw. It’s bothering everyone in the office. (View Game Card)
Dustin May (MIL) vs SEA (L) – 2.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 66 pitches.
This was PAIN. A ton of unlucky singles with weak contact + a high 97 mph heater smacked to left-center for a double, and a traditional Singled Out start that should not impact your future assessment of May. It’s terrible timing, of course, and I feel for you. It would be unwise to drop him now. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Gerrit Cole vs. Kyle Bradish – I just want both pitchers to have their sliders cooking.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
