Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Payton Tolle (BOS) vs PIT (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
We had a pair of exciting MLB debuts on Friday and despite the spotlight on Jonah Tong, the prize of the night was Payton Tolle against the Pirates in Fenway: 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches (ND). Tolle has a more secure spot in the rotation with Fitts’ injury + Buehler’s release (yes, Tong gets at least one more turn), and, it might sound wild, but he seems like a safer pitcher down the stretch.
The jury is still out on “better” after just one start – MLB debuts are weird, y’all – though watching Tolle sit 96 mph and touch high-90s from the left side is a rarity. His 7.5 feet of extension is absurdly elite, especially from the left side (I can only think of Joey Cantillo off the top of my head), and his ability to live inside the zone with the heater at a 1.4 HAVAA with intent to elevate is so dang legit.
The secondaries are the biggest question mark. Tolle added a cutter across the minor league season and featured it 24% of the time with just a 15% CSW. Its drop needs to be more consistent for Tolle to truly dominate instead of overpowering a weaker crew with heaters. The changeup has great movement but doesn’t have the feel you want to see, with the rare curve and slider. Pay attention to that changeup and its growth – it’s the biggest potential step forward to solidify Tolle as a stud.
Pick him up. A date with the Guardians should work well and if his heater dominates again, I’d be favorable toward a date in Sacré Verde, too. It’s just such a good foundation of a fastball.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Cristian Javier (HOU) vs LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
It was a day of four-seamer paint upstairs and it was enough, despite the sweeper, curve, sinker, and change all disappointing constantly. I’m happy about it, though it’s not quite the domination that encourages consistency moving forward. I’m not ready to trust him against the Yankees or Jays, though there’s a chance he pulls it off.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) @ TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I’m shocked to report that Peralta had zero whiffs on his four-seamer and huge props to Peralta for getting his curve, changeup, and slider to work and pick up the slack.
Zac Gallen (ARI) @ LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! Gallen pulled it off for the third straight start, succeeding in his toughest trial yet. There doesn’t seem to be a large element of his arsenal to latch onto – this was a game of 16 called strikes on the four-seamer that led the way – and the pitch separation of last game with curves and changeup wasn’t replicated. And yet, it’s the Rangers + Giants for two. Perhaps just give the matchups a try and I’ll overlook the specifics of the arsenal.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) @ HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 86 pitches.
A good ole Dusty Donut when we didn’t expect anything to eat for a long while. But just one strikeout? “HAISTBMBWT?!” I don’t think you need me to outline his good fortune here and lack of sustainability.
Bryce Elder (ATL) @ PHI (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 96 pitches.
Three in a row?! Koufax was incredibly kind, of course, though he did command the sinker and slider incredibly well to LHB. I can’t buy into a start as he hosts the Mariners next, sorry. It’s too risky.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
Good to see the changeup wake up to RHB as the slider was not nearly as sharp as we want it to be. By the way, I wonder if we’ll see Rodón flirt with 95 mph again. He’s been around 93 mph and change for a bit and it’s lowering his floor a touch.
Paul Skenes (PIT) @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Way to outduel the rook, though I’m surprised Skenes pulled back on the splinker. Feels like that should be used more than seven times, you know?
Jonah Tong (NYM) vs MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 97 pitches.
He’s here! And he looked a little shaky at first before settling in. His absurdly high arm angle makes for 21″ of vert and seven feet of extension at 95 mph, and opens the door for his big 12-6 curve at -18″ of drop, while the split-change (or is it a splitter?) looks like the main #2 pitch. The latter wasn’t consistent enough to return whiffs (just 2/24) and the curve didn’t appear to be a reliable breaker to turn to often. That leaves the four-seamer to do the work and it absolutely can be that pitch in the future. Here, we saw a whole bunch of wasted ones + rare locations upstairs, preventing the domination we wanted to see at our first major look. The Mets have outlined that he’ll go another turn in the rotation and he’s very much worth the hold for @CIN next.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) vs ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 92 pitches.
He got Singled Out and we should be thrilled to see just one run on the board. Sure, the curve wasn’t at its best and the change had a sub 60% strike rate, but Suárez really wasn’t as off as those 10 hits would suggest.
Adrian Houser (TBR) @ WSN (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 86 pitches.
Blegh. The sinker tried its best, the secondaries didn’t help, and things didn’t go exactly his way to be efficient enough to go more than four. The schedule isn’t great enough to hold onto Houser in your 12-teamers.
George Kirby (SEA) @ CLE (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
Yessss. The slider was down to LHB and dominated as the sinker and four-seamer stayed up top for a BSB. The curve was down often as well and he has his LHB approach down pat. The Guardians offered only LHB like a leftorium and we’ll have to wait longer to see if Kirby can attack RHB properly.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 96 pitches.
We’ll take it. Zebby’s feel for high heaters was better than usual, but he couldn’t put away batters with the slider, lofting many to RHB over the plate and allowing far too many foul balls. He’s still a work in progress and I’d be careful against the SlySox next.
Jack Leiter (TEX) @ ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 97 pitches.
Whoaaaa 8/27 changeup whiffs is a beautiful thing. However, he didn’t back it up with the rest of his arsenal (just four across heaters, sliders, and curves) and I’m still having trouble believing that Leiter can feature an elite arsenal start-to-start. I need to see that heater and slider dominating with the changeup as a luxury, not the leader.
Shane Bieber (TOR) vs MIL (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 92 pitches.
Yep, he’s super legit. I hope you had him stashed in your league.
Cade Horton (CHC) @ COL (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 70 pitches.
That WHIP ain’t fun, but props to Horton for not just getting through Coors, but for making two starts after a blister caused an early exit. Guess he’s been too good to bench against Atlanta now, right?
Zack Littell (CIN) vs STL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
He went full kitchen sink here and it worked against a poor lineup. That’s nice, send him to the wire now with tougher teams ahead.
Mitchell Parker (WSN) vs TBR (L) – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
Ayyyy he had a decent outing! Parker made some mistakes with his four-seamer (both HRs) but was mostly BSB with four-seamers and curveballs to RHB and did a great job with sliders to LHB. No, you shouldn’t bank on this happening again, but let’s be happy Parker was able to celebrate a Birthday Party.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) vs TEX (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
One out away from a VPQS isn’t quite the sunshine and rainbows you wanted for Springs, but Sacré Verde isn’t the nicest place. There’s a better chance @STL next time out for your 15-teamers.
Blake Snell (LAD) vs ARI (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 86 pitches.
Aces gonna earn a Golden Goal with a brilliant changeup but fought his fastball and curve a bit, while a third run in the sixth aided a Careful, Icarus. Not quite the Hot Snell Summer, but he’s still obviously dope.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
You already know this. Liberatore hasn’t been the same in the second half and I’m not interested moving forward. There are better Toby options.
Chris Paddack (DET) @ KCR (ND) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 58 pitches.
He fell apart in the fourth and was pulled without a strikeout in the books at 58 pitches. HAISTBMBWT?! The schedule gets worse and he’s a clear avoid.
Nestor Cortes (SDP) @ MIN (L) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 66 pitches.
Blegh. The heater sat just 89 mph (not 91+ mph, yikes), rarely went high, and was punished for a quartet of hits, leading to a rough fourth where he got the quick hook. Maybe we let Cortes sit on the wire for the Orioles, and jump back in for the Reds Carpet and Rockie Road after.
Logan Allen (CLE) vs SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.
He got bamboozled in the first with four runs before returning to the dugout, then cruised the rest of the way. His heater’s flat attack angle with 17″ of vert outlines its unexpected movement well, but Fenway is next and that’s a tough 15-teamer play.
Yoendrys Gómez (CHW) vs NYY (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 Hits, 6 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
Ouch. The Yankees did a great job forcing Gómez to throw strikes and capitalized with a grand slam to mess up Yoendrys. There’s still intrigue in his stuff, but yeah, he’s a massive risk right now. It’s unlikely you actually want to chance it this year.
Seth Lugo (KCR) vs DET (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 85 pitches.
Jeeeeeeez. I guess we just give up on this until he proves he’s okay. It doesn’t feel right to me that Lugo has suddenly lost it, but there’s not enough reason to fight it at this point. Sigh.
Eury Pérez (MIA) @ NYM (L) – 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 39 pitches.
Absolute pain. He was bamboozled for two HRs, recording all five runs, and at 39 pitches, the Marlins wanted to protect their young arm. Keep starting Pérez and I hope this didn’t hurt your chances too badly.
Robbie Ray (SFG) vs BAL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.
On the plus side at least Ray was 93/94 mph and not the 92 mph & 91 mph of his last two outings…? Yeah, it’s tough. He didn’t have his slider and the curve/change wasn’t enough. If you are too worried to start him in Coors, I don’t blame you. We only have a month left and you need something now, do what you need to do. You’ll figure it out later.
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ SFG (L) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 76 pitches.
Dean Werewolf strikes again. Now it’s the Dodgers, Jays, and Yankees, and you can’t do this.
Germán Márquez (COL) vs CHC (L) – 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 64 pitches.
Márquez has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter.
Game of the Day
Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sánchez – Two stud southpaws and the return of Sale. Love it.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
